The study of shield tunnel segment flotation is crucial for controlling the precision of underground excavation projects. Based on Winkler’s beam foundation theory, the load structure method, and the equivalent continuous beam model, and by considering the mechanical and spatial conditions that cause segment flotation, a novel theoretical calculation method for cumulative flotation is proposed using a simplified equivalent stiffness model of the tunnel. Additionally, a new concept of “equivalent flotation force” is introduced. The rationality and applicability of this theoretical calculation method are verified by comparing it with on-site construction data from the Yuanjiang River Crossing Tunnel Project in Changde, Hunan Province, China. The experimental results demonstrate that the theoretical calculation closely approximates the surface deformation monitoring data of the tunnel alignment in the eastern section of the project, and their deformation patterns are similar. Near the starting shaft, there is significant settlement influenced by stratum loss due to smaller tunnel flotation, with greater settlement occurring in the upper part. However, at approximately 45 m into both sections, they enter a deformation stability zone showing significant correlation in longitudinal deformation. Through comparison and verification of on-site experiments and theoretical model analysis, we preliminarily elucidate the feasibility of this innovative cumulative flotation theoretical calculation method which provides an important theoretical basis for assessing segment flotation issues in subsequent tunnel shield construction evaluations.
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