Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient Research Articles

Revisiting the intraseasonal, interannual and interdecadal variability of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific

This paper reviews the recent progress and research on the variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) at different time scales. Specific focus is placed on how different types of external forcings or climatic oscillations contribute to TC variability in the western North Pacific (WNP). At the intraseasonal scale, recent advances on the distinctive impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Quasi-biweekly Oscillation, and the asymmetric MJO modulation under different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states, as well as the influences of the Pacific–Japan teleconnection, are highlighted. Interannually, recent progress on the influences of the ENSO cycle, different flavors of ENSO, and impacts of Indian Ocean warming is presented. In addition, the uncertainty concerning interdecadal TC variations is discussed, along with the recently proposed modulation mechanisms related to the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is hoped that this study can deepen our understanding and provide information that the scientific community can use to improve the seasonal forecasting of TCs in the WNP.

ENSO‐Like Modulated Tropical Pacific Climate Changes Since 2.36 Myr and Its Implication for the Middle Pleistocene Transition

AbstractEl Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity and the Pacific Walker Circulation are controlled by the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the western and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) and the corresponding barometric difference. Variations in the zonal SST gradient since the early Pleistocene have primarily been triggered by changes in the SST in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. However, the response of the ENSO‐like long‐term state to the cooling of the EEP and its coupling role with tropical Pacific climate changes are still not well established. Here we present a high‐resolution grain‐size record spanning the last 2.36 Myr, obtained from marine core sediment located in the West Philippine Sea in order to decipher the tropical pacific climate changes and reveal its controlling mechanism. By combining our data with other long‐term climatic records from the Equatorial Pacific, we demonstrate that the cooling of SST and enhanced upwelling in the EEP resulted in the development of the Walker Circulation and increased monsoon precipitation in Luzon from 2.2 to 1.6 Myr, from 1.2 to 0.8 Myr, and since 0.2 Myr ago. The progressive cooling of the high‐latitudes in the Quaternary may be responsible for our observation here. A newly identified 100 kyr dominant period between 2.2 and 1.6 Myr in the ENSO‐like modulated Pacific climate records indicates that the ENSO‐like system may play a key role in facilitating or responding to the global climate changes.

Low‐Frequency Variability and the Unusual Indian Ocean Dipole Events in 2015 and 2016

AbstractAn unusual positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event occurred in 2015 associated with the 2015/2016 extreme El Niño. Unlike the canonical IOD, sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the west central tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) dominated the strong zonal SST gradient as cooling off Sumatra‐Java was weak. Over the southeastern TIO, deeper thermocline has suppressed the upwelling cooling since 2012. Such deepened thermocline related to a low‐frequency adjustment and curtailed cool anomalies in the 2015 positive IOD but favored warm anomalies in the 2016 negative IOD. Based on statistical analyses, ocean assimilation data confirm that an IOD‐like pattern exists in the TIO on decadal timescale. During a negative decadal IOD‐like phase, thermocline is deeper in the southeastern TIO; the thermocline‐SST feedback is unfavorable for positive IOD occurrence and intensity, but conducive to negative IOD events. Thus, we propose that the 2015–2016 IOD events are modulated by the low‐frequency variability of thermocline.

Hydrological variability in the western tropical Pacific over the past 700 kyr and its linkage to Northern Hemisphere climatic change

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and latitudinal shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) cause large scale hydrologic changes in the western tropical Pacific (WTP). However, there is still a debate on the role of ENSO and ITCZ shifts on the hydroclimate in the WTP and their linkage to Northern Hemisphere climate change on glacial-interglacial timescales. For that reason, we present ice volume-corrected seawater δ18O (δ18Osw-ice, a proxy for salinity) and sea surface temperature (SST) records from IMAGES Core MD06-3047B recovered from the northern WTP to investigate the hydroclimate in the WTP during the last 700kyr. Planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber based Mg/Ca-SST and δ18Osw-ice records reveal distinct glacial-interglacial variations. The δ18Osw-ice record shows that our study site is characterized by fresher conditions and thus higher precipitation during glacials than during interglacials. Our results are in good agreement with numerical model simulations, which also suggest a glacial freshening in the northern WTP. A glacial freshening of the WTP is most likely related to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and/or exposure of the Maritime Continent due to sea level changes which resulted in an enhanced Pacific Walker circulation and/or southward shift of the ITCZ. In addition, SST records from the WTP and the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) suggest an enhanced tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient and thus La Niña-like conditions, which may have contributed to fresher conditions in the WTP during glacial periods. Besides, our rainfall record is in antiphase to the Chinese speleothem δ18O records, supporting the idea of an opposing trend in precipitation changes between the WTP and East Asia on orbital timescales.

Influences of two types of El Niño event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Based on the HadISST1 and NCEP datasets, we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Nino event (CP-EL) and eastern Pacific El Nino event (EP-EL) on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Considering the remote effect of Indian Ocean warming, we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate. Results show that during the El Nino developing year of EP-EL, cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean. At the end of that autumn, all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs. However, considering the statistical significance, more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year. For further research, EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (EPI-EL) and CP El Nino accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (CPI-EL) events are classified. With the remote effects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies, the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific. For the EPI-EL developing year, large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May, and persist to the autumn of the El Nino decaying year. However, for the CPI-EL, weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Nino decaying spring. Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, distinct zonal SST gradient, atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Nino decaying years. Specifically, the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years, can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean. The atmospheric heating caused by this precipitation anomaly emulates atmospheric Kelvin waves accompanied by low level easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific. As a result, a zonal SST gradient with a warm anomaly in the west and a cold anomaly in the east of Northwest Pacific is generated locally. Furthermore, the atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific are strengthened again in the decaying summer of EPI-EL. Affected by the local Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) positive feedback, the suppressed East Asian summer rainfall then persists to the late autumn during EPI-EL decaying year, which is much longer than that of CPI-EL.

Impacts of the Boreal Spring Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Hadley Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

AbstractThis study investigated the impacts of the interannual variability in the boreal spring regional Hadley circulation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) on the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). The principal modes of the interannual variability in the IPWP Hadley circulation were calculated using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading mode (EOF-1) features cross-equatorial southerly wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent and has an evident impact on WNP TC activity during summer. In the summer following a positive phase of the EOF-1, a cyclonic circulation anomaly, with upward motion, positive relative vorticity anomalies, and weak sea level pressure, dominates the WNP, and this favors increased TC genesis. However, large positive vertical wind shear anomalies over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea inhibit the TC intensification. A positive wind–sea surface temperature (SST)–precipitation feedback was found to facilitate the ability of the signal of the EOF-1 to persist until the summer. The westerly wind anomalies converge around 10°N over the WNP, thus increasing precipitation, and this increased precipitation enhances the westerly wind anomalies via a Gill-type response. The strengthened westerly wind anomalies increase total wind speeds, which in turn cool the SST in the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, and warm the SST in the eastern WNP, increasing the zonal SST gradient. Consequently, this increased zonal SST gradient further enhances the westerly wind anomalies, strengthens the monsoon trough, and increases the WNP precipitation further. Therefore, the WNP precipitation anomalies are sustained into the summer.

Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

AbstractHistorical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state‐of‐the‐art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process‐level validation of the atmosphere‐ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

Highly variable Pliocene sea surface conditions in the Norwegian Sea

Abstract. The Pliocene was a time of global warmth with small sporadic glaciations, which transitioned towards the larger-scale Pleistocene glacial–interglacial variability. Here, we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperature (SST) and ice-rafted debris (IRD) in the Norwegian Sea from 5.32 to 3.14 Ma, providing evidence that the Pliocene surface conditions of the Norwegian Sea underwent a series of transitions in response to orbital forcing and gateway changes. Average SSTs are 2 °C above the regional Holocene mean, with notable variability on millennial to orbital timescales. Both gradual changes and threshold effects are proposed for the progression of regional climate towards the Late Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Cooling from 4.5 to 4.3 Ma may be linked to the onset of poleward flow through the Bering Strait. This cooling was further intensified by a period of cool summers due to weak obliquity forcing. A 7 °C warming of the Norwegian Sea at 4.0 Ma suggests a major increase in northward heat transport from the North Atlantic, leading to an enhanced zonal SST gradient in the Nordic Seas, which may be linked to the expansion of sea ice in the Arctic and Nordic Seas. A warm Norwegian Sea and enhanced zonal temperature gradient between 4.0 and 3.6 Ma may have been a priming factor for increased glaciation around the Nordic Seas due to enhanced evaporation and precipitation at high northern latitudes.

Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes

The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the changes in Indian Walker Circulation and Atlantic Walker Circulation which are affected by the anomalous SST over the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.

Variations in the western Pacific warm pool across the mid-Pleistocene: Evidence from oxygen isotopes and coccoliths in the West Philippine Sea

We present planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope and Florisphaera profunda abundance data from the International Marine Global Change Study Program (IMAGES) Core MD06-3050, which was collected in the West Philippine Sea on the margin of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Our records reveal marked changes in the upper water structure in the Kuroshio source region as early as 1.5Ma, continuing through the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (MPT). These changes are evidenced by reconstructions of the thermocline (based on planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope differences) and the nutricline (based on the relative abundance of the coccolithophore species Florisphaera profunda) in the Kuroshio source region. The evolution of the thermocline/nutricline featured three prominent phases: 1) phase I (1.5–1.1Ma), which was characterized by low-amplitude variations in a shallow thermocline; 2) phase II (1.1–0.8Ma), which was characterized by high-amplitude variations in a relatively shallow thermocline/nutricline; and 3) phase III (0.8–0.5Ma), which was characterized by low-amplitude variations in a deep thermocline/nutricline. Combined with the zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific, the evolution of the upper water structure can be linked to tropical climatic changes across the MPT, including the intensification of atmospheric circulation and a gradual cessation of the long-term El Niño-like state. The upper water structure of the WPWP was asymmetric before 0.8Ma, with a shallow thermocline/nutricline along the northern margin and a deep thermocline/nutricline in the center of the WPWP and South China Sea (SCS). The modern WPWP was established by approximately 0.8Ma, and the upper water structure has changed synchronously as a whole since that time. A comparison of the δ18O values derived from Globigerinoides ruber tests from the MD06–3050 core with those from other cores in the western Pacific suggests that the lower glacial/interglacial G. ruber δ18O values in MD06-3050 before 0.8Ma could be related to the enhancement of the WPWP and to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

Linkages between the South and East Asian summer monsoons: a review and revisit

The relationship between the South Asia monsoon (SAM) and the East Asia monsoon (EAM) possibly modulated by both external forcings and internal dynamics has been a long-standing and controversial issue in climate sciences. This study reviews their linkages as revealed in modern records and model simulations during the past, present and future, and provides a comprehensive explanation of the key mechanisms controlling the diversity of the SAM–EAM relationship. Particular attention is paid to several external forcings that modulate the relationship, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IODM), boreal summer teleconnections, and Eurasian snow extent on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales. The major focus is placed on two integral views of the inter-connection between the two monsoon systems: one is the positive inter-correlation, which is associated with decaying El Niño and developing Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) warming anomalies; the other is the negative inter-correlation, resulting from developing El Niño and western Pacific SST cooling. The IODM mode also has a delayed impact on the negative connection by modulating Eurasian snow cover. The observed evidence reveals that the recent intensification of the negative relationship is attributable to the strengthening of the zonal SST gradient along the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and eastern Pacific. Analysis of experiments in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project further indicates a possibility for the negative linkage to be further enhanced under anthropogenic global warming with considerable interdecadal modulation in mid and late twenty-first century.

Onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon and the seasonal timing of ENSO's decay phase

ABSTRACTBased on multiple sources of atmospheric and oceanic data, this study demonstrates a close relationship between the onset of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) summer monsoon (BOBSM) and the seasonal timing of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s decay phase. Through distinguishing ‘later‐decay’ and ‘normal‐decay’ ENSO events, it is found that a later/earlier onset of the BOBSM following El Niño/La Niña is mainly caused by later‐decay ENSO events, while no significant changes in BOBSM onset can be identified between normal‐decay El Niño and normal‐decay La Niña events. Diagnosis of the related dynamic and thermodynamic processes further confirms that, for later‐decay ENSO events that remain active until mid‐April, persistent ENSO‐induced ‘atmospheric‐bridge’ processes can yield a stronger vertical coupling of circulation between the upper and lower troposphere, and thus an anomalously earlier (later) BOBSM onset following a later‐decay La Niña (El Niño). In the lower troposphere, the persisting zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific following later‐decay ENSO events can significantly modulate the lower tropospheric barotropic instability over the northern BOB, which in turn overwhelms the local SST conditions to dominate the development of monsoon convections. In the upper troposphere, later‐decay ENSO alters the position of the South Asian high and the upper atmospheric divergence‐pumping through the anomalous Walker circulation. In contrast, due to the earlier damping of normal‐decay ENSO, the BOBSM onset processes are barely modulated.

Oceanic Impetus for Convective Onset of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Western Indian Ocean

Abstract A theory for intraseasonal atmosphere–ocean–atmosphere feedback is supported whereby oceanic equatorial Rossby waves are partly forced in the eastern Indian Ocean by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), reemerge in the western Indian Ocean ~70 days later, and force large-scale convergence in the atmospheric boundary layer that precedes MJO deep convection. Downwelling equatorial Rossby waves permit high sea surface temperature (SST) and enhance meridional and zonal SST gradients that generate convergent circulations in the atmospheric boundary layer. The magnitude of the SST and SST gradient increases are 0.25°C and 1.5°C Mm−1 (1 megameter is equal to 1000 km), respectively. The atmospheric circulations driven by the SST gradient are estimated to be responsible for up to 45% of the intraseasonal boundary layer convergence observed in the western Indian Ocean. The SST-induced boundary layer convergence maximizes 3–4 days prior to the convective maximum and is hypothesized to serve as a trigger for MJO deep convection. Boundary layer convergence is shown to further augment deep convection by locally increasing boundary layer moisture. Warm SST anomalies facilitated by downwelling equatorial Rossby waves are also associated with increased surface latent heat fluxes that occur after MJO convective onset. Finally, generation of the most robust downwelling equatorial Rossby waves in the western Indian Ocean is shown to have a distinct seasonal distribution.

La Niña–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles

Abstract The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.

On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract Past and future changes in the Aleutian low are investigated by using observation-based sea level pressure (SLP) datasets and CMIP5 models. It is found that the Aleutian low intensity, measured by the North Pacific Index (NPI), has significantly strengthened during the twentieth century, with the observed centennial trend double the modeled counterpart for the multimodel average of historical simulations, suggesting compound signals of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. As climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the climatological-mean Aleutian low will continue to intensify and expand northward, as manifested in the significant decrease (−1.3 hPa) of the multimodel-averaged NPI, which is 1.6 times its unforced internal variability, and the increase in the central area of low pressure (SLP < 999.0 hPa), which expands about 7 times that in the twentieth century. A suite of idealized experiments further demonstrates that the deepening of the Aleutian low can be driven by an El Niño–like warming of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), with a reduction in the climatological-mean zonal SST gradient, which overshadows the dampening effect of a weakened wintertime land–ocean thermal contrast on the Aleutian low change in a warmer climate. While the projected deepening of Aleutian low on multimodel average is robust, individual model portrayals vary primarily in magnitude. Intermodel difference in surface warming amplitude over the Asian continent, which is found to explain about 31% of the variance of the NPI changes across models, has a greater contribution than that in the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific SST warming (which explains about 23%) to model uncertainty in the projection of Aleutian low intensity.

Weakened interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic since 2000

AbstractRecent studies suggest that the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation has weakened since 2000. In this study, the authors report that the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic has also weakened remarkably since 2000, attributable to the weakened interannual variability in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic and in the associated equatorial low-level zonal wind across South America linking the two ocean basins. Diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the weakening in the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall is primarily attributable to the changes in moisture convergence associated with vertical motion. The results highlight the clear weakened interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific–Atlantic climate system since 2000, including the Pacific ...

Glacial–interglacial changes in equatorial Pacific surface-water structure during the Plio–Pleistocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation

The late Pliocene/early Pleistocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (iNHG) represents the most recent major tipping point in Earth's climate history. In the equatorial Pacific, the iNHG has been suggested to mark the transition from a warm Pliocene climate state, in which the Pacific warm pool was greatly expanded relative to today giving rise to a surface ocean temperature field akin to modern El Niño conditions, to a climate state with strong upwelling in the east of the basin and stronger zonal temperature gradients. Here we examine this transition by presenting new high-resolution (∼800 yr) planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca- and δ18O-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS; based on δ18O residuals [δ18Oivc-sw]) records from Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) Ocean Drilling Program Site 849 spanning ∼2.75–2.4 Ma. Our study interval contains the first large-amplitude (∼1‰ in benthic δ18O) early Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages 100–96) representing the culmination of iNHG. In this study we investigate west-to-east equatorial Pacific SST and SSS gradients. We find that the zonal SST gradient increased by ∼1.5 °C from ∼2.75 to ∼2.4 Ma through EEP cooling. No glacial–interglacial pattern is seen in this gradient. On the other hand, we document obliquity-paced oscillations in the δ18Oivc-sw (SSS) gradient. We hypothesize that these oscillations originated from a response to a glacial southward and interglacial northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the EEP.

The Role of Tropical Interbasin SST Gradients in Forcing Walker Circulation Trends

The effects of externally forced tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on long-term Walker circulation changes are investigated through numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. In response to the observed tropics-wide SST trend, which exhibits a prominent interbasin warming contrast (IBWC) with smaller warming in the Pacific than the Indian and Atlantic Oceans that includes a weak La Niña–like pattern in the equatorial Pacific, pronounced low-level easterly anomalies emerge over the equatorial Pacific. Through sensitivity experiments, the intensification of the Pacific trade winds (PTWs) is attributable to the IBWC, whereas the slightly enhanced zonal SST gradient within the equatorial Pacific plays a small role relative to the observed IBWC. It is further demonstrated that the greater Indian Ocean warming forces low-level easterly anomalies over the entire equatorial Pacific, while the greater tropical Atlantic warming-driven enhancement of PTWs is located over the central equatorial Pacific. In contrast to observations, a negligible IBWC emerges in the tropical SST trends of CMIP5 historical simulations due to a strong El Niño–like warming in the tropical Pacific. Lacking the observed IBWC (and the observed enhancement of the zonal SST gradient within the equatorial Pacific), the PTWs in the CMIP5 ensemble can only weaken.

Extreme Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts over Southern Maritime Continent

AbstractThis study investigated the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extreme shifts in the Southern Maritime Continent (SMC) region in austral spring during the period 1979–2015. The results have shown that the ITCZ Southern Boundary (SB) presents great correlations with a meridional Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. However, besides these local forcing, the extreme ITCZ shifts are also influenced by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and an associated zonal SST gradient. The extreme shifts are due mainly to the combination of changes in Walker Circulation (WC) in the Pacific and Indian Ocean (IO) and local SST anomalies. Therefore, during ITCZ southward extreme shifts, the WC is stronger leading to the strengthening of the northwest equatorial winds in the IO, which pumps moist air and boosts the diabatic heating in the SMC due to the local positive SST anomalies present in this region. Otherwise, during northward extreme shifts, the WC is weaker, not allowing the performance of the northwest equatorial winds in the IO, which associated with the local negative SST anomalies, leads to drier conditions in the SMC region. Another interesting result found here is that a strong meridional or zonal index not necessarily implies a larger shift. The combination of very strong ENSO and IOD events can lead to greater ITCZ SB shifts. Besides, the ITCZ SB shifts can act as a bridge linking IOD and ENSO.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to westerly wind events by the oceanic background state

Equatorial Pacific Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) impact ENSO evolution through their local and remote oceanic response. This response depends upon the WWE properties (duration, intensity, fetch…) but also on the underlying oceanic state. Oceanic simulations with an identical idealised western Pacific WWE applied every 3 months on seasonally and interannually varying oceanic conditions over the 1980–2012 period allow characterizing and understanding the modulation of the WWE response by the oceanic background state. These simulations reveal that the amplitude of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) response, which can vary by one order of magnitude, is far more sensitive to the oceanic background conditions than the dynamical response to WWEs. The amplitude of the surface-flux driven cooling in the western Pacific is strongly modulated by zonal advection, through interannual variations in the background SST zonal gradient. The amplitude of the warming at the warm pool eastern edge is controlled by horizontal advection, and varies as a function of the zonal SST gradient and distance between the WWE and warm pool eastern edge. The amplitude of the eastern Pacific warming varies as a function of the background thermocline depth and local winds. Overall, only the amplitude of the WWE-driven western Pacific cooling can be clearly related to the phase of ENSO, while the WWE driven SST response in the central and eastern Pacific is more diverse and less easily related to large-scale properties. The implications of these findings for ENSO predictability are discussed.