Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes

Abstract

The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the changes in Indian Walker Circulation and Atlantic Walker Circulation which are affected by the anomalous SST over the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.