Abstract
This paper reviews the recent progress and research on the variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) at different time scales. Specific focus is placed on how different types of external forcings or climatic oscillations contribute to TC variability in the western North Pacific (WNP). At the intraseasonal scale, recent advances on the distinctive impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), the Quasi-biweekly Oscillation, and the asymmetric MJO modulation under different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) states, as well as the influences of the Pacific–Japan teleconnection, are highlighted. Interannually, recent progress on the influences of the ENSO cycle, different flavors of ENSO, and impacts of Indian Ocean warming is presented. In addition, the uncertainty concerning interdecadal TC variations is discussed, along with the recently proposed modulation mechanisms related to the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It is hoped that this study can deepen our understanding and provide information that the scientific community can use to improve the seasonal forecasting of TCs in the WNP.
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive and threatening natural disasters and can cause heavy casualties worldwide
This calls for an overhaul of the existing TC predictors and the identification of new TC-related factors in order to improve the predictability of TCs
We aim to provide a comprehensive review of past achievements as well as recent progress in TC variability research at different time scales
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive and threatening natural disasters and can cause heavy casualties worldwide. One possible reason for the forecasting discrepancies may be the failure of the existing predictors to fully explain TC variability. This calls for an overhaul of the existing TC predictors and the identification of new TC-related factors in order to improve the predictability of TCs. In this study, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of past achievements as well as recent progress in TC variability research at different time scales. Through this comprehensive review, we hope to deepen our understanding and provide information that the scientific community can use to improve the seasonal forecasting of TCs
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have