World Risk Index Research Articles

AN OPEN RISK INDEX WITH LEARNING INDICATORS FROM OSM-TAGS, DEVELOPED BY MACHINE LEARNING AND TRAINED WITH THE WORLDRISKINDEX

Abstract. While climate change is already a real issue in many parts of the world, it is even more threatening the well-being of future generations. The SDG 1.5 explicitly aims to reduce the vulnerability and exposure to climate related hazards by 2030. TheWorld Risk Index (WRI) is one well-respected approach in profiling countries risk to natural hazard. To effectively monitor development and detect decision points on the climate resilience pathway, data of high resolution in space and time about the world’s countries is of urgent importance. The World Risk Index will guide the supervised learning part resulting in an indicator set derived from OpenStreetMap (OSM) tags, establishing on one hand an open risk index and adding deep explanatory power to its components by a qualitative discussion of the OSM themes. The second part explores with unsupervised algorithms the inherent characteristic of country groups classified by the open risk index and deduces common patterns of socio-economic vulnerability. Hence, the inherent challenge of this work is to substitute existing static indicators with new dynamic indicators, not only substituting them but also painting a more detailed picture. Moreover, new data sources still questioned often by their reliability compared to World Bank or census data, and therefore its opportunities are neglected instead of critically exploring the potential. This unique combination is not done yet and bares huge potential moreover united with the open source geo community to contribute a little piece of the puzzle for achieving the SDG 1.5.

Life Expectancy Negatively Correlates with Disaster Risk Index

Introduction:Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, for the first time, describes how disaster affects the health of people. Japan is prone to natural hazards, but at the same time, Japan has achieved one of the highest life expectancies (LE) in the world. After experiencing many disasters, Japan seems to have achieved resilience against disasters. Thus, we tested a hypothesis that high LE correlates with low disaster risk.Methods:We compared LE from the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Health Observatory and the Index for Risk Management’s (INFORM) disaster risk index, or World Risk Index (WRI), of each country using JMP software. INFORM risk index varies from 0-10, while WRI varies from 0-1, where a higher value means higher disaster risk in both systems. INFORM risk index considers hazard and exposure, vulnerability, lack of coping capacity, and lack of reliability. WRI considers exposure, susceptibility, lack of coping capacity, and lack of adaptive capacity, including logarithmized LE as a part of adaptive capacity.Results:The overall INFORM risk index was negatively correlated with LE (p<0:0001). Although natural hazard did not correlate with LE (p=0.7), the human hazard, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity negatively correlated with LE (p<0.0001, respectively). Health-related indicators, which confirm the vulnerability and lack of coping capacity, were negatively correlated with LE. Cluster analysis of LE and INFORM risk of six categories resulted in four clusters of countries, suggesting that health development and disaster risk reduction are independent determinants. WRI also correlated with LE, but there are many outliers compared to the INFORM risk index.Discussion:High LE can be a good complementary indicator of low disaster risk. Strategies to achieve better health that contribute to high LE are also effective and important strategies for disaster risk reduction.

Adapting climate change challenge: A new vulnerability assessment framework from the global perspective

Climate change has caused worldwide concern due to its adverse effects on the global ecosystem, economy and society. In this study, a new integrated framework was proposed for assessing the national vulnerability to climate change by considering both the sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Then, a first assessment of the spatial-temporal change in national vulnerability from 1996 to 2008 was provided from the global perspective. Finally, 171 countries were grouped, and hotspots of climate change were identified. Based on the results, the earth is more vulnerable than invulnerable, and the average rate of increase in the vulnerability index from 1996 to 2008 was 0.30%. African countries were identified as hotspots of vulnerability and instability in the changing climate, and 8 groups were clustered based on the key influencing index of 171 countries. The results of this new framework are consistent with the previous Fragile State Index and World Risk Index but provide more details and quantitative vulnerability analysis. The methods and results presented in this paper could be used as references for climate change adaption and policy at the global scale.

Simultaneous global supply chain and product architecture design considering natural hazard exposure and geographical facility location

Global supply chains are exposed to unexpected disruptive events such as natural disasters that could highly impact normal operations. Hence, supply chain and product architecture design should consider the geographical location of the proposed supply chain (SC). In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming is developed to concurrently design the SC and product architecture. The objective function uses the World Risk Index to minimize the risk of natural disasters in the supply chain. The model can be used in the early design phases in order to evaluate the risk of the proposed configurations as presented in an example.

Development of Human Vulnerability 2012–2017

Vulnerability defined as the predisposition to be negatively affected, often decide whether hazards and extreme natural events can lead to disasters or severe suffering or not. The WorldRiskIndex (WRI) is an approach to assess exposure, vulnerability and risk patterns at the global scale and it is based on national scale resolution data. The new results of the WRI 2017 and the analysis of the development trends of vulnerability between 2012 to 2017 show that risk of natural hazards and climate change is particularly high in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean as well as Central America. Also, the impacts of extreme weather events, such as Taifun Haiyan in 2013 that hit the Philippines and Vietnam revealed that vulnerable communities suffer most. The event caused more than 6,000 fatalities. However, also sea level rise as considered in the WRI can be seen as an extreme event even though it is a rather creeping process in many world regions. The analysis of the development of vulnerability, namely the examination of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacities between 2012 and 2017 reveals interesting differences. While at the global or international level, we can observe a reduction in vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change, there are significant differences at the regional scale. While the vulnerability in Asia is showing also a reduction in susceptibility and an increasing capacity to cope and to adapt, the world region Oceania shows a different trend. In Oceania, we found that some countries showed an increasing vulnerability and that the overall world region is characterized by a constant and even slightly increasing vulnerability level, in contrast to other world regions which mainly show significant improvements. Also, the high persistence of vulnerability in various countries in Africa — that show progress but often too little — suggests that it is likely that these countries might not be able to effectively reduce risks solely on their own. Adaptation policies and risk reduction strategies need to address these differential development trends of vulnerability at regional scale in order to provide a context for effective risk reduction at national and local levels. The results can also inform the Global Stock take for adaptation policies.

Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks

The growth in size and complexity of supply chains has led to compounded risk exposure, which is hard to measure with existing risk management approaches. In this study, we apply the concept of systemic risk to show that centrality metrics can be used for complex supply network risk assessment. We review and select metrics, and set up an exemplary case applied to the material flow and contractual networks of Honda Acura. In the exemplary case study, geographical risk information is incorporated to selected systemic risk assessment metrics and results are compared to assessment without risk indicators in order to draw conclusions on how additional information can enhance systemic risk assessment in supply networks. Katz centrality is used to measure the node's risk spread using the World Risk Index. Authority and hub centralities are applied to measure the link risk spread using distances between geographical locations. Closeness is used to measure speed of disruption spread. Betweenness centrality is used to identify high-risk middlemen. Our results indicate that these metrics are successful in identifying vulnerabilities in network structure even in simplified cases, which risk practitioners can use to extend with historical data to gain more accurate insights into systemic risk exposure.

Considering socio-cultural factors of disaster risk management

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between factors of socio-cultural contexts and disaster risk. Recent efforts by international organizations and research scholarship have emphasized that applying contextual understandings of human behavior can improve the effectiveness of disaster risk management (DRM).Design/methodology/approach– The research employs multiple correlation analysis to find significant relationships between two sources of socio-cultural data and the World Risk Index scores.Findings– There are interesting relationships between various measures of socio-cultural context and disaster risk, such as correlations with levels of individualism, self-expression, and secular-rational values.Research limitations/implications– While using the broadest sample available with the data sources, generalizations about the relationships must be tempered as inherently anecdotal and needing greater depth of study. The national level of analysis is controversial.Practical implications– Emergency managers can extend the knowledge about socio-cultural influences on disaster risk to tailor policy for effective practices.Social implications– Societies may recognize their behaviors as being conducive or obstructive to DRM based on their socio-cultural characteristics; governments may operationalize the findings into policy responses for more nuanced mitigation efforts.Originality/value– This research adds to the momentum for considering non-technical approaches to DRM and expands the potential for social science derived variables in DRM.

The WorldRiskIndex 2016: Reveals the Necessity for Regional Cooperation in Vulnerability Reduction

Extreme events do not necessarily trigger extreme impacts. Exposure and vulnerability levels often decide whether hazards and extreme events lead to disasters or severe suffering or not. Measuring and assessing different levels of exposure, vulnerability and risk is therefore crucial in order to inform decision making and to provide guidance for defining priorities for risk reduction and adaptation. The WorldRiskIndex (WRI) is an approach to assess global exposure, vulnerability and risk patterns based on national scale resolution data. The new results of the WRI 2016 underscore that risk of natural hazards and climate change is particularly high in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean as well as Central America. The assessment for 171 countries reveals important improvements in some countries, such as Namibia, however, in other countries such as Brunei, Darussalam and Serbia risk has increased, particularly due to higher susceptibility and lower coping and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events and natural hazards. The analysis of global patterns of risk shows that not only the physical exposure to extreme events or natural phenomena but also the societal context conditions in countries like Vanuatu, Niger, Haiti and Afghanistan are key drivers of risk and therefore efforts for risk reduction and adaptation at the local and national level need to also address aspects such as poverty and corruption. The persistence of high risk in various countries in Africa and Oceania also suggests that it is likely that these countries might not be able to effectively reduce risks solely on their own but rather need regional approaches and institutions for risk reduction and adaptation.

Disaster risk indicators in Brazil: A proposal based on the world risk index

The DRIB Index- Disaster Risk Indicators in Brazil - provides a tool to help assess, visualise and communicate different levels of exposure, vulnerability and risk in Brazil. The index may sensitise public and political decision-makers towards the important topic of disaster risk and climate change adaptation. This article aims to explore the feasibility and usefulness of such a national risk index that considers both natural hazard phenomena and social vulnerability. The exposure to natural hazards was assessed by using four indicators that describe the exposure of people towards landslides, floods, droughts and sea level rise. Whereas vulnerability dimension consists of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity was calculated on the basis of 32 indicators which comprise social, economic and environmental conditions of a society. The county comparison provides an initial ranking of exposure and vulnerability. Specific analysis of coping and adaptation capacities also indicates that risk or vulnerability are not pre-defined conditions, but rather are constructed by societies exposed to natural hazards.The results of the DRIB Index were mapped and classified by means of a GIS system to show different patterns of exposure, vulnerability and risk on global scale. The national perspective of risk clearly shows that the vulnerability of a society or a country is not the same as exposure to natural hazards. The information provided by the DRIB Index highlights the need for preventive measures towards Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the country as a whole, but also at regional and local scales. The results showed that the risk is strongly interwoven with social-economic and cultural conditions and normal everyday life, as well as with the performance of state institutions dealing with Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), in other words, vulnerability. Spatial trends of disaster risk and vulnerability, products of this research, also have stressed the serious social inequalities between and within regions of the country, which result in barriers to the development of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)in Brazil as a whole.

Development and validation of a sub-national multi-hazard risk index for the Philippines

Disasters in relation to natural hazards continue to have a heavy toll on humans, ecosystems and economies. They therefore undermine efforts for sustainable development, particularly in transitional countries. The Philippines is amongst the most disaster-prone countries on the globe, due to its high exposure to natural hazards and considerable societal vulnerabilities. While a number of global risk assessments have helped to identify risk hotspots at the level of individual countries, sub-national and local risk assessments for informing disaster risk management on the ground are often lacking. To address this gap, we provide a down-scaled risk assessment, at the municipality level, for the Philippines. In the interests of coherency and scale hierarchy, we draw on the modular approach used in the World Risk Index, considering hazard exposure, susceptibility, lack of short-term coping capacity, and lack of long-term adaptive capacity. The paper aims not only to present the results but also to debate key methodological questions behind the development of sub-national multi-hazard risk indices. The outlook looks at the applicability, from the end-user’s perspective, of this level of risk assessment for decision-making at local and national levels.

The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale

The demand for information and understanding on natural hazard related risk on a global scale has grown in recent years. Such information is crucial for stakeholders who are working in the field of disaster risk reduction, spatial planning and (re-)insurance. This article provides a new approach to assess risk and vulnerability towards natural hazards on country scale and allows the comparison of countries at global scale. The concept of the WorldRiskIndex focuses on the understanding of risk which is defined as the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerability of exposed elements. The exposure to natural hazards was assessed by using five indicators that describe the expsoure of people towards earthquakes, cyclones, floods, droughts and sea level rise. Whereas vulnerability consists of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity was calculated on the basis of 23 indicators which comprise social, economic and environmental conditions of a society. The method and the results of the WorldRiskIndex were validated by using statistical analysis such as reliability, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of the WorldRiskIndex were mapped and classified by means of a GIS system to show different patterns of exposure, vulnerability and risk on global scale. The global perspective of risk clearly shows that the vulnerability of a society or a country is not the same as exposure to natural hazards.

SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA

Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index) can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia) was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban river mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.

SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA

Methods and results of social vulnerability and risk assessment are presented in the article. It is explored if modified methodology of the United Nations University (World risk index) can be used on different scale levels: regional, municipal and settlement. It was estimated that, despite the low value of the World risk index for Russia, southern coastal and mountain regions have high values of the risk index for hydrological phenomena because of higher frequency of the hazardous events, higher population density, and high social vulnerability. The Krasnodar region (in the south-western part of Russia) was chosen for a detailed analysis. A municipal risk index was developed, and municipal districts in the Kuban river mouth were identified as territories with the highest risk. For verification of the index results, the percentage of vulnerable people was estimated based on opinion polls. The results can be used in further risk calculation for other hazardous phenomena.

Exploring the relationships between urbanization trends and climate change vulnerability

There is increasing scientific and political interest in the links between urbanization and human vulnerability to climate change. However, our literature review shows that the existing scholarship has largely focused on exposure resulting from urbanization, while other dimensions of urban vulnerability such as sensitivity or capacity to cope and adapt have been insufficiently represented or understood. Furthermore, most attention has been given to the negative effects of urbanization, while opportunities for vulnerability reduction have been underemphasized. Therefore, this paper takes a broader perspective to explore key relationships between urbanization, economic development and socio-economic vulnerability on a global scale. Using data with national resolution, we applied a clustering approach to identify ten country groups sharing similar patterns of urbanization and national income. We then explored associations between these country groups and selected indicators of exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity drawing upon data from the World Risk Index. Our findings suggest that countries with rapid urbanization and economic transformation face significant challenges with respect to sensitivity and the lack of capacities. Additionally, these challenges tend to be greater the lower the income of the respective country. Yet, at the same time, urbanization can be a main driver for enhancing response capacity. The analysis suggests that urbanization can, hence, have nuanced effects on overall vulnerability. We argue that climate change science needs to be more balanced in terms of acknowledging and examining the different possible pathways of vulnerability effects related to urbanization. The country group analysis can provide a first entry point.