The WorldRiskIndex 2016: Reveals the Necessity for Regional Cooperation in Vulnerability Reduction

Joern Birkmann,Torsten Welle

doi:10.1142/s2345737616500056

Abstract

Extreme events do not necessarily trigger extreme impacts. Exposure and vulnerability levels often decide whether hazards and extreme events lead to disasters or severe suffering or not. Measuring and assessing different levels of exposure, vulnerability and risk is therefore crucial in order to inform decision making and to provide guidance for defining priorities for risk reduction and adaptation. The WorldRiskIndex (WRI) is an approach to assess global exposure, vulnerability and risk patterns based on national scale resolution data. The new results of the WRI 2016 underscore that risk of natural hazards and climate change is particularly high in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean as well as Central America. The assessment for 171 countries reveals important improvements in some countries, such as Namibia, however, in other countries such as Brunei, Darussalam and Serbia risk has increased, particularly due to higher susceptibility and lower coping and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events and natural hazards. The analysis of global patterns of risk shows that not only the physical exposure to extreme events or natural phenomena but also the societal context conditions in countries like Vanuatu, Niger, Haiti and Afghanistan are key drivers of risk and therefore efforts for risk reduction and adaptation at the local and national level need to also address aspects such as poverty and corruption. The persistence of high risk in various countries in Africa and Oceania also suggests that it is likely that these countries might not be able to effectively reduce risks solely on their own but rather need regional approaches and institutions for risk reduction and adaptation.

Highlights

Analyzing, assessing and communicating risks triggered by natural hazards and climate change are important prerequisites for effective risk reduction and adaptation strategies as well as for empowering responses (Mach et al 2016; Queiroz de Almeida et al 2016)
The component exposure captures the population or built-up area and infrastructure that is physically and spatially exposed to one or more natural hazards or extreme events, namely earthquakes, storms, droughts, floods and sea level rise, while the vulnerability with its three components susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity assesses the conditions of the exposed population, infrastructure, built-up area or ecosystem
Susceptibility as the first sub-component of vulnerability is understood as the likelihood of experiencing harm in case an extreme event or specific natural hazard would strike a certain country or region

Summary

Introduction

Analyzing, assessing and communicating risks triggered by natural hazards and climate change are important prerequisites for effective risk reduction and adaptation strategies as well as for empowering responses (Mach et al 2016; Queiroz de Almeida et al 2016). That means whether an extreme event leads to extreme impacts and even to a disaster is determined by the magnitude and intensity of the extreme event as such but by the question how vulnerable a community, society or infrastructure is to such impacts In this context the concept of the index is comparable with a standard risk definition and equation that aim to measure risk by examining the likelihood, intensity and severity of the stressor or hazard with the potential negative consequences (e.g., loss of life, economic loss, etc.) or the damages that it might trigger. Where are global hotspots of exposure to natural hazards and hotspots of vulnerability?

Components of the WRI and the Link to the SDGs

Key Results 2016

Findings

The Necessity for Regional Cooperation and Regional Strategies