Development and validation of a sub-national multi-hazard risk index for the Philippines

Abstract

Disasters in relation to natural hazards continue to have a heavy toll on humans, ecosystems and economies. They therefore undermine efforts for sustainable development, particularly in transitional countries. The Philippines is amongst the most disaster-prone countries on the globe, due to its high exposure to natural hazards and considerable societal vulnerabilities. While a number of global risk assessments have helped to identify risk hotspots at the level of individual countries, sub-national and local risk assessments for informing disaster risk management on the ground are often lacking. To address this gap, we provide a down-scaled risk assessment, at the municipality level, for the Philippines. In the interests of coherency and scale hierarchy, we draw on the modular approach used in the World Risk Index, considering hazard exposure, susceptibility, lack of short-term coping capacity, and lack of long-term adaptive capacity. The paper aims not only to present the results but also to debate key methodological questions behind the development of sub-national multi-hazard risk indices. The outlook looks at the applicability, from the end-user’s perspective, of this level of risk assessment for decision-making at local and national levels.