Win Elections Research Articles

Gospodarstvo ili povijest: preferencije hrvatskih birača na parlamentarnim izborima 2016. godine

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of election victory in the Republic of Croatia. The main hypothesis of the paper is that in the Republic of Croatia the events of the 1990s, i.e., the Homeland War, had a stronger impact on the winners of the parliamentary elections in terms of the economic performance of the local self-government units (LSGs). Due to the availability of data, we focus on the 2016 parliamentary elections, and we model the victory of the two leading parties in Croatia – the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) – at the level of LSG. We develop a logistic regression model with the variable "election victory" at the LSG level as a dependent variable explained by the following variables: economic development at the LSG level, Homeland War covered LSGs, transparency of LSG budgets, election turnout, and government budget support to the LSGs. The results show that certain commonly accepted opinions, such as that voters in more economically developed LSGs vote more for the SDP on average, and that voters in war-affected LSGs vote more for the HDZ on average, have empirical confirmation.

Do Female Politicians Lead to Better Learning Outcomes?

Abstract Despite progress towards universal primary education, children in India lag in age and grade-appropriate learning competencies. This paper studies the effect of women’s political leadership in state legislatures on primary school-aged children’s learning outcomes. I use close elections won by women against men as an instrument for the election of a female politician and find significant gains in math and reading proficiency in children 8–11. Using a rich set of school and household-level data, I evaluate the impact on public and household investments. There is an increased likelihood of public schools receiving grants and inputs beneficial for learning. Further, female politicians lead households to exhibit more confidence in the ability of public schools to provide a better education. Consistent with this perception change, there are reduced time allocation and spending on supplementary household resources. The net positive effect suggests the policy effect outweighs the crowding out of private resources.

Stolen elections: How conspiracy beliefs during the 2020 American presidential elections changed over time

AbstractConspiracy beliefs have been studied mostly through cross‐sectional designs. We conducted a five‐wave longitudinal study (N = 376; two waves before and three waves after the 2020 American presidential elections) to examine if the election results influenced specific conspiracy beliefs and conspiracy mentality, and whether effects differ between election winners (i.e., Biden voters) versus losers (i.e., Trump voters) at the individual level. Results revealed that conspiracy mentality kept unchanged over 2 months, providing first evidence that this indeed is a relatively stable trait. Specific conspiracy beliefs (outgroup and ingroup conspiracy beliefs) did change over time, however. In terms of group‐level change, outgroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time for Biden voters but increased for Trump voters. Ingroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time across all voters, although those of Trump voters decreased faster. These findings illuminate how specific conspiracy beliefs are, and conspiracy mentality is not, influenced by an election event.

Reconsidering Bellwether Locations in U.S. Presidential Elections

We examine the notion of a “bellwether” location in the electoral political context. Bellwethers are thought to have predictive power because they supposedly signal how the entire electorate will move on election day. We consider how the number of bellwether counties—defined in several ways—has fluctuated since the 1930s. We also explore the extent to which bellwethers successfully predict future elections. With the proliferation of geographic polarization, few counties can successively and successfully pick the winner of presidential elections. Other bellwether measures fare slightly better or worse, but as Tufte and Sun (1975) found nearly half a century ago, bellwethers today continue to be poor predictors of future performance.

Battered by Geopolitical Winds, Bulgaria Struggles to Restart Much Needed Reforms

Battered by Geopolitical Winds, Bulgaria Struggles to Restart Much Needed Reforms

Lee and Cox, When Sunflowers Bloomed Red: Kansas and the Rise of Socialism in America

Reviewed by: When Sunflowers Bloomed Red: Kansas and the Rise of Socialism in America by R. Alton Lee and Steven Cox Erik Loomis When Sunflowers Bloomed Red: Kansas and the Rise of Socialism in America By R. Alton Lee and Steven Cox (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2020. Pp. ix, 324. Notes, bibliography, index. $29.95.) R. Alton Lee and Steven Cox, two veteran historians of social movements in the Midwest, have published a highly useful volume on the history of socialism in Kansas and the Midwest more broadly. While not a completely groundbreaking study, When Sunflowers Bloomed Red is a valuable addition to the literature. It is almost shocking for students to hear today that the rural Midwest was once a hotbed of American socialism. This book is a great reminder not only of that forgotten reality, but also of the amazing variety within the socialist movement. Lee and Cox’s primary contribution is teasing out these strains and exploring each in separate chapters. I particularly appreciate how they begin by discussing “capitalistic socialists”—not a type contemporary readers might expect, but one which describes the followers of both Populism and Eugene Debs. The empathetic socialists remind readers of the social feeling that went into so much of the movement. [End Page 232] The chapter on the miners of southeastern Kansas provides an example of the more urban-industrial socialism that became the hallmark of the movement in the United States. “Successful socialists” are not an ideological type, but it is easy to forget that socialists could and did win elections during the early twentieth century. One of the most successful campaign issues for socialist candidates, including those in Kansas, was public ownership of utilities. The Industrial Workers of the World (IWW) organized itinerant workers in oil and wheat, providing a direct challenge to capital in the state. The authors take corporate and newspaper reports on the IWW too literally, as the literature on the IWW nationwide demonstrates that the authorities exaggerated Wobbly violence for their own purposes. Finally, the authors close with a chapter on the decline of the socialists in the reaction of the 1920s, and the revival of the movement during the Great Depression. My reservation regarding Lee’s and Cox’s characterizations of midwestern socialists is their placement of all women in the chapter “The Female Socialists,” which dismisses this large group’s ideological variations. Socialist women would fit into the authors’ interpretive categories; Lee and Cox should have avoided placing all socialist women in one chapter and leaving the rest of the book to men. I also wish that the authors had provided a further explanation for socialism’s decline in the Midwest. They correctly point out that the movement was far from universally popular, but that was as true in 1915 as it was in the 1940s. Why did it thrive in the face of hostility and then decline at a time when socialism retained a significant following in the urban organized labor movement? Moreover, given the region’s contributions to the far right in the present, more theoretical discussion about the trajectory of both the politics of the region and socialism more broadly would have great value. Nevertheless, this is a strong book that will be of great interest to readers of this journal. [End Page 233] Erik Loomis University of Rhode Island Copyright © 2022 Trustees of Indiana University

Civic and Uncivic Values in Poland: Value Transformation, Education, and Culture

Civic and Uncivic Values in Poland: Value Transformation, Education, and Culture

On dictators and clowns

In February 2022, Vladimir Putin, with a penchant for absurdly long tables and known as a bare‐chested horseman and bear tamer, deployed a massive army to invade Ukraine, headed by Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, dancer and actor, who has demonstrated hitherto unimaginable leadership skills. Our political present is grotesque. Politicians erupt as caricatures of themselves, and comedians win elections. Satirical late‐night productions outpace journalistic political coverage as bizarre parties gain traction. Humorous modes of political activism gain influence over public political commentary. Clowns turn into politicians, and politicians turn into grotesque dictators. What is going on? This article explores the links between humour and politics. Grasping humour as a peculiar way of knowing and engaging with politics opens a new path for studying the political present.

How does clarity of alternatives affect the electoral fortune of corrupt politicians?

This article lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of the clarity of alternatives on corruption voting. Traditional approximations to the question of why corrupt politicians win elections focus on the limited availability of information and voter biases toward in-group candidates. I argue that while citizens are ready to punish corruption, the electoral toll for a corrupt candidate is reduced in settings of unclear electoral choices. I find support for this theoretical framework by examining the accountability enhancing consequences of the clarity of alternatives in Latin America. The results indicate that politicians running for office in settings of weak clarity of alternatives sustain less electoral damage than those running in settings of strong clarity of alternatives. The implication is that party decisions that increase voter uncertainty about the menu of choices contribute to the electoral fortune of corrupt politicians.

Präsidentschaftswahl zeigt Frankreichs Spaltung

AbstractFrench presidential elections 2022 have significantly strengthened anti-EU populists. Traditional mainstream centrists are not among the big three election winners, while far-right Marine Le Pen deftly addressed the plight of the disengaged. The country’s rural-urban divide masks significant differences in voting motives; Paris is a stark outlier. Unemployment rates, low skills, and car dependency fuel Le Pen’s support, as well as xenophobia. The province has fought back against neglect by electing populists. It is doubtful whether place-based policies will solve the structural cause of the populist tendency by the next presidential election in five years.

El proyecto constitucional republicano de secularización del estado de 1931: ¿Discriminación asumida o política ambiciosa de desarrollo?

On April 14, 1931, two days after the municipal elections won by the anti-monarchist coalition, Spain inaugurated a Second Republic. Among other very important reforms, the left Republicans sought to secularize the state. But although left-wing Republicans yearned for a completely secularized country, these measures were accompanied by discrimination. In a historical perspective and with the explanatory and dialectical method, this analysis will try to show that, if the treatment of the religious question was intended to secularize the State, the radical republicans consciously or unconsciously touched a freedom: freedom of worship. That is ultimately discrimination.

Political elections uncertainty and earnings management: Does firm size really matter?

This study provides evidence on whether political elections uncertainty is associated with firms’ earnings management in election years in 15 European countries, using a sample of 16,868 firm–year observations from 3,096 unique firms in the period 2011–2018. We find that earnings management increases in uncertain political environments. This occurs mostly in years of extreme elections uncertainty as in the case of elections won by a margin of less than 5%, including close calls with a change of the ruling party to a different political spectrum. Firms increase earnings management activity to decrease earnings except in the case of SMEs who behave conversely by increasing earnings, arguably on the basis of increased scrutiny risk.

German politics at the traffic light: new beginnings in the election of 2021

With the announced end of Angela Merkel’s tenure as Chancellor, the 2021 German federal election was particularly charged. In stark contrast to the Social Democratic Party, which became more united as the election approached, the Christian Democrats were not able to consolidate the fissures unveiled by Merkel’s departure. The Greens, emboldened by the polls, for the first time joined the traditional major parties in nominating a chancellor candidate. The result was a campaign period that centred heavily on the three-way race between Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens). The electoral outcome reduced the large number of coalitions discussed against the backdrop of a fragmenting party system and eventually led to a novel partnership on the federal level, a so-called traffic light coalition between the Social Democrats, Greens, and the Liberals. The formation of this coalition was facilitated by the refusal of Social and Christian Democrats to even consider renewing their ‘grand’ coalition, a newfound self-confidence on behalf of Greens and Liberals as well as the symbolic benefit that this novel alliance brought together the election winners. In many ways, the electoral result and the coalition it engendered represent new beginnings in German politics but significant hurdles to the consolidation of these patterns remain.

Digital Election Model In The Election Of Regional Head And Deputy Head In Indonesia

This study aims to develop a model for digital general election in the election of Regional Head and Deputy Head. The focus of this research is on the simultaneous regional elections in 2020 in the regencies of Jember, Malang, Lamongan and Sidoarjo. In the research method, a qualitative-descriptive approach was used, with a phenomenological basis. The results of the study indicated that the legitimacy of authority in the 2020 Regional Head and Deputy Head Elections has decreased or the elections had incomplete legitimacy. This can be seen from the percentages of votes for the winners of the local elections, who received less than 50% in the regencies of Jember, Malang, Lamongan and Sidoarjo. Recommendations are offered for the development of a new regional election system, which may attain full power legitimacy, as follows. First, the digital-based electoral system needs to be improved. Second, election needs to be socialized as early as possible. Third, political education needs to be developed by political parties, through political school programs with competent teachers. Fourth, the model, which needs to be set up with a bottom-up system through full community participation, may produce a pattern of regional election that is more in line with the conditions and desires of the people so that the people can give full power (full legitimacy) for the winners to manage the regional government.

An Evaluation of Predatory Governance in Uganda and Indonesia

The first part of this article theorises predatory governance in general and acmes some exceptions to the process. Subsequently, it reviews the characteristics of predatory governance literature in Africa and East Asia with emphasis on Uganda and Indonesia. The study shows how leaders utilise state resources and institutions for their self-interest and exclude the masses or tax payers who sustain such regimes. We show that, the extent to which regimes, influence policies on the general population politically or otherwise, creates inequality, poverty, unemployment, and bad governance. We, therefore, theorise that predatory governance is hinged on the idea that the state usually has limited capacity to protect citizen rights, the political and socio-economic spaces are usually controlled by the elites either through coercion, corruption or the use of violence. The impact of predatory governance and the developmental state as an approach for economic development has been discussed and we observe practical realities of vote-buying to win elections being a common practice in Uganda and Indonesia. In this understanding, both case scenarios portray an image of predatory behaviour. The study utilised secondary data to evaluate what predatory governance, its characteristics and impact. Findings show that predatory governance affects economic outcomes of a country, produces corruption, violence, nepotism, poverty, unemployment and shrinking democratic space and deficiencies to name but few.

Winners’ Consent? Citizen Commitment to Democracy When Illiberal Candidates Win Elections

AbstractDemocracy is in decline worldwide, primarily because voters elect candidates harboring antidemocratic aspirations. Scholars argue that elections animate the democratic spirits of winners and deflate those of losers, but what about contests ending in the victory of authoritarian candidates? To answer this question, we consider the dynamics of commitment to democracy in Brazil's 2018 presidential campaign. Drawing on AmericasBarometer data and an original five‐wave panel survey, we confirm that Jair Bolsonaro's campaign attracted skeptics of democracy. Although his election and inauguration boosted his supporters’ allegiance to the political system, it also exacerbated their tolerance for institutional ruptures such as executive‐led coups. Meanwhile, election losers retained their democratic commitments. As a result, the authoritarian victory narrowed preexisting winner–loser gaps in support for the political system, but widened gaps in tolerance for certain antidemocratic maneuvers. Thus, authoritarian electoral victories can foster short‐term satisfaction among democracy's critics while abetting future instability.

Gabriel Boric’ government and the sign of the times

The article maintains that Gabriel Boric`s electoral win was due to the sheer moment in which the social trends and public opinion allowed to convince the society that a bunch of deep changes should be launched and carried out in a bid to replace the political and social system. The democratic energy of the process and its more reformist than revolutionary nature made it feasible for Boric to overcome the communist (Daniel Jadue) and a left-wing populist (Pamela Jiles) candidates in the first round and to defeat the far-right candidate in the second round. In spite of the success, the political environment is rife with contradictions. There is a heavy risk that conservative regression could take place because of the very radical dynamics the period incubates. The author comes round to thinking that Boric should chime his idealistic virtues with greater political realism in action in order to avoid gross blunders and gaffes (particularly, the falling into Jacobin temptation) and get down to building of a new, broader and stauncher coalition which could prop up his project of structural reforms.

Wyzwania i kierunki aktywności administracji prezydenta Yoon Suk Yeola

The purpose of the article is to describe the 2022 South Korean presidential election against the backdrop of a paradigm shift and to show the challenges and directions of Yoon Suk Yeol’s new administration. The author focuses on the research problems present in the new South Korean politics. Elements of change and continuity, which were also present in previous administrations are highlighted. In May 2022, Yoon Suk Yeol was sworn into the South Korea’s highest office. Yoon’s win in the presidential election ended a trend in which a decade of progressive rule was followed by a change to conservative rule. Since 1998, progressive and conservative presidents have alternated every two terms. The minimal difference in votes in favor of the conservative candidate reflected the divisions and social preferences of Koreans who favored a change from progressive to conservative government. The results of the 2022 presidential election revealed the polarization of South Korean society. Yoon will face a series of difficult challenges. In domestic politics, he must confront the housing crisis, widespread dissatisfaction with economic inequality, and generational tensions, among other issues. Yoon will also be challenged by the parliamentary majority currently held by the Democratic Party in the National Assembly. In foreign policy, South Korea’s new president advocates strengthening the alliance with the United States and cooperation with the Quad countries; he promises to improve relations with Japan, and to take steps toward South Korea playing a greater role in the world. In his inter-Korean policy, on the other hand, Yoon follows the traditional position of the conservatives, pledging to strengthen a policy of deterrence against acts of aggression and provocation by North Korea.

Presentation of Social Actor on the Claim of 2019 Presidential Election Winner in Indonesia

In the 2019 Indonesian Legislative General Election and Presidential Election, two parties in competition, Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno, have claimed their victory. The victory of Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin was based on the results that had been issued by several independent polling agencies, while the victory of Prabowo SubiantoSandiaga Uno was claimed by the department of internal survey agency within their campaign team as the National Board of Victory (BPN, Badan Pemenangan Nasional). This situation caught the public attention quite massively at that time. One of the national newspapers, Kompas, even made a special report on the claim of victories between the two pairs of presidential and vice-presidential candidate. In relation to the statement, the study aims at analysing and describing the strategy of presenting the social actors through the process of exclusion and inclusion within the claims of victory. In conducting the study, the researchers rely on the use of constructivism paradigm with primary data sources in the form of five news items and secondary data sources in the form of books, online news items, and relevant journal articles and reports. In gathering these data, the researchers have implemented the documentation study and also the literature study. In the meantime, for analysing the data, the researchers have implemented the Leeuwen’s discourse analysis model that consists of exclusion and inclusion. Thus, the results of the study show that: 1) there are passivation, nominalization, and substitution of clauses within the news items; and (2) the inclusion process is carried out through the strategy of determination, abstraction, assimilation, association, and differentiation.

Anticipating the Return of Micro‐Unit Organizing

One of the larger factors contributing to an election win or loss is the voting unit to be organized. The appropriateness of a voting unit depends on the National Labor Relations Board's application of traditional community of interest factors. A group of employees must have “some” level of interest common among them prior to being considered an appropriate unit for collective bargaining. The definition of a sufficient level of common interest has been the subject of debate over the past several years. If the Board's recent announcement in American Steel Construction, 370 NLRB No. 41 (2021) is any indication, the debate will continue.