Wind Power Estimation Research Articles

Effect of temperature on seasonal wind power and energy potential estimates in Nordic climates

AbstractA major obstacle standing in the way of full‐scale adoption of renewable energy sources is their intermittency and seasonal variability. To better understand the power generation dynamics, the effect of air density due to temperature on power and energy generation figures was modelled. The model uses historical ERA5 data and considers changes in weather patterns in a subarctic climate where seasonal changes are most pronounced. The power generation figures of using a mean and a dynamic air density value were compared and the results show that power generation estimates may be under‐ and overestimated by on average 5% up to 10% in winter and summer, respectively. This can have implications for the sizing of power transmission infrastructure and energy storage in both on‐grid and off‐grid applications as well as power availability. The topic is highly relevant in the Nordic countries where roughly 10% of new global added wind capacity is installed annually.

Unleashing the power of artificial neural networks: accurate estimation of monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama wind farm I, Ethiopia

Wind power plays a vital role in the electricity generation of many countries, including Ethiopia. It serves as a valuable complement to hydropower during the dry season, and its affordability is crucial for the growth of industrial centers. However, accurately estimating wind energy poses significant challenges due to its random nature, severe variability, and dependence on wind speed. Numerous techniques have been employed to tackle this problem, and recent research has shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models excel in prediction accuracy. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of different ANN network types in estimating the monthly average daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. The collected data was divided into three sets: training (70%), testing (15%), and validation (15%). Four network types, namely Feedforward Backpropagation (FFBP), Cascade Feedforward Backpropagation (CFBP), Error Backpropagation (EBP), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LR), were utilized with seven input parameters for prediction. The performance of these networks was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared (R2). The EBP network type demonstrated exceptional performance in estimating wind power for all wind turbines in Groups GI, GII, and GIII. Additionally, all proposed network types achieved impressive accuracy levels with MAPE ranging from 0.0119 to 0.0489 and R2 values ranging from 0.982 to 0.9989. These results highlight the high predictive accuracy attained at the study site. Consequently, we can conclude that the ANN model’s network types were highly effective in predicting the monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. By leveraging the power of ANN models, this research contributes to improving wind energy estimation, thereby enabling more reliable and efficient utilization of wind resources. The findings of this study have practical implications for the wind energy industry and can guide decision-making processes regarding wind power generation and integration into the energy mix.

An Effective Strategy for Achieving Economic Reliability by Optimal Coordination of Hybrid Thermal–Wind–EV System in a Deregulated System

This paper describes an effective operating strategy for electric vehicles (EVs) in a hybrid facility that leverages renewable energy sources. The method is to enhance the profit of the wind–thermal–EV hybrid plant while maintaining the grid frequency (fPG) and energy level of the EV battery storage system. In a renewable-associated power network, renewable energy producers must submit power supply proposals to the system operator at least one day before operations begin. The market managers then combine the power plans for the next several days based on bids from both power providers and distributors. However, due to the unpredictable nature of renewable resources, the electrical system cannot exactly adhere to the predefined power supply criteria. When true and estimated renewable power generation diverges, the electrical system may experience an excess or shortage of electricity. If there is a disparity between true and estimated wind power (TWP, EWP), the EV plant operates to minimize this variation. This lowers the costs associated with the discrepancy between actual and projected wind speeds (TWS, EWS). The proposed method effectively reduces the uncertainty associated with wind generation while being economically feasible, which is especially important in a deregulated power market. This study proposes four separate energy levels for an EV battery storage system (EEV,max, EEV,opt, EEV,low, and EEV,min) to increase system profit and revenue, which is unique to this work. The optimum operating of these EV battery energy levels is determined by the present electric grid frequency and the condition of TWP and EWP. The proposed approach is tested on a modified IEEE 30 bus system and compared to an existing strategy to demonstrate its effectiveness and superiority. The entire work was completed using the optimization technique called sequential quadratic programming (SQP).

A comprehensive approach to wind turbine power curve modeling: Addressing outliers and enhancing accuracy

This research presents a comprehensive approach to improving the accuracy of wind turbine power curve (WTPC) modeling. The WTPC is a critical tool for monitoring wind turbine performance and estimating wind power potential, but current models have limited ability to capture the complex relationship between wind speed and power output. To address these limitations, this study implements a dual-pronged refinement of WTPC modeling. First, an innovative data preprocessing technique is introduced, using a 97 % confidence interval around a KNN-estimated WTPC constructed using the Laplace distribution to meticulously eliminate prominent outliers. Second, a novel WTPC modeling approach based on quantile regression is adopted, accounting for the asymmetric error characteristics in the loss function. Four distinct quantile regression models are developed, including three tree-based algorithms - decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting - and a deep learning-based quantile regression neural network. Comparative analysis against ten established parametric and nonparametric techniques confirms the superiority of the proposed models, with the decision tree quantile regression model achieving the lowest validation errors. The proposed techniques are validated on two real-world datasets from operational wind turbines in Turkey and China, demonstrating significant improvements in WTPC modeling accuracy compared to conventional methods. Overall, this study successfully presents a comprehensive modeling approach that addresses outliers and leverages quantile regression to significantly enhance WTPC accuracy.

Particle swarm optimization-extreme learning machine model combined with the ADA boost algorithm for short-term wind power prediction

In our proposed approach, we integrate ADA boosting with particle swarm optimization-extreme learning machine (PSO-ELM) to enhance the accuracy of wind power estimation, addressing the inherent unpredictability and variability in wind energy. Initially, we refine the thresholds and input weights of the extreme learning machine (ELM) and then construct the PSO-ELM prediction model. ADA Boost is utilized to generate multiple weak predictors, each comprising a distinct hidden layer node. The PSO technique is then employed to optimize the input weights and thresholds for each weak predictor. The final forecast is attained by amalgamating and weighting the outcomes from each weak predictor using a robust wind power forecast model. Experimental validation utilizing data from Turkish wind turbines underscores the efficacy of our approach. Comparative analysis against contemporary techniques such as ensemble learning models and optimal neural networks reveals that our ADA-PSO-ELM model demonstrates superior accuracy and generalizability in predicting wind power output under real-world conditions. The proposed approach offers a promising framework for addressing the challenges associated with wind power estimation, thereby facilitating more reliable and efficient utilization of wind energy resources.

Improving wind power forecast accuracy for optimal hybrid system energy management

Abstract Due to its renewable and sustainable features, the wind energy is growing up around the word. However, the wind speed fluctuation induces the intermittent character of the generated wind power. Thus, wind power estimation, through wind speed forecasting, is very inherent to ensure an effective power scheduling. Four wind speed predictors based on deep learning networks and optimization algorithms, were developed. The designed topologies are the multilayer perceptron neural network, the long short-term memory network, the convolutional short-term memory network and the bidirectional short-term neural network coupled with the Bayesian optimization. The models performance was evaluated through evaluation indicators mainly, the root mean squared error, the mean absolute error and the mean absolute percentage. Based on the simulation results, all of them show a considerable prediction results. Moreover, the combination of the the long short-term memory network and the optimization algorithm is more robust on wind speed forecasting with a mean absolute error equal to 0.23 m/s. The estimated wind power was investigated for an optimal Wind/PV/Battery/Diesel energy management. The handling approach lies on the continuity of the load supply through the renewable sources as priority, the batteries on second order and finally the diesels. The proposed management strategy respects the designed criteria with satisfactory contribution percentage of the renewable sources equal to 71%.

Wind power forecasting technologies: A review

This study addresses the critical role of wind power forecasting in ensuring stable and reliable power system operations. Wind Power Forecasting is critical for the efficient operation of plant, time scheduling, and it’s balancing of power generation with grid integration systems. Due to its dependency on dynamic climatic conditions and associated factors, accurate wind power forecasting is challenging. The research delves into various aspects, including input data, input selection techniques, data pre-processing, and forecasting methods, with the aim of motivating researchers to design highly efficient online/offline models on weather-based data. The overarching goal is to enhance the reliability and stability of power systems while optimizing energy resource utilization. The analysis reveals that hybrid models offer more accurate results, highlighting their significance in the current era. This study investigates different Wind Power Forecasting (WPF) models from existing literature, focusing on input variables, time horizons, climatic conditions, pre-processing techniques, and sample sizes that affect model accuracy. It covers statistical models like ARMA and ARIMA, along with AI techniques including Deep Learning (DL), Machine Learning (ML), and neural networks, to estimate wind power.

Identifying wind regimes near Kuwait using self-organizing maps

Optimization of wind energy integration requires knowing the relationship between weather patterns and winds they cause. For a region with less-studied weather such as the Middle East, climatology becomes more vital. The Shagaya Renewable Energy Park in development in Kuwait experiences regional wind regimes that affect wind power production. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output allowed investigation into the weather regimes most likely to impact Shagaya Park. The self-organizing maps (SOMs) machine-learning method clustered the WRF output into six primary weather regimes experienced by the Middle East. According to the wind regimes mapped by the SOM, two of the six regimes have average wind speeds of approximately 9.9 and 8.6 m s−1 at 80 m near Shagaya Park, as well as wind speed and estimated wind power distributions that are more favorable to wind power production in Kuwait. One regime depicts a strong northwesterly wind called the summer shamal, and the second is associated with strong westerlies. Regimes less favorable for Kuwaiti wind power production are represented by the remaining four SOM nodes: local weak southeasterlies, an African nocturnal low-level jet, a daytime planetary boundary layer, and local northwesterlies from autumn to spring. The remaining four SOM nodes have average wind speeds of 5.7–7.2 m s−1 and wind speed and estimated wind power distributions which indicate regimes less favorable for wind power production in Kuwait.

Hybrid model for wind power estimation based on BIGRU network and error discrimination‐correction

AbstractAccurate estimation of wind power is essential for predicting and maintaining the power balance in the power system. This paper proposes a novel approach to enhance the accuracy of wind power estimation through a hybrid model integrating neural networks and error discrimination‐correction techniques. In order to improve the accuracy of estimation, a bidirectional gating recurrent unit is developed, forming an initial wind power estimation curve through training. Additionally, a sequential model‐based algorithmic configuration optimizes bidirectional gating recurrent unit's network hyperparameters. To tackle estimation errors, a multi‐layer perceptron combined with sequential model‐based algorithmic configuration is employed to create a classification model that automatically discerns the quality of estimates. Subsequently, an innovative correction model, based on grey relevancy degree and relevancy errors, is devised to rectify erroneous estimates. The final estimates result from a summation of the initial estimates and the values derived from error corrections. By analysing the real data from a wind farm in northwest China, a simulation test validates the proposed hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate a substantial improvement in modelling accuracy when compared to the initial model.

Usage of Statistical Techniques to Monitor the Performance of Wind Turbines

Calculating the yearly energy output, which keeps the balance between both the generation and consumption of electricity, is made easier with the use of wind energy production estimates for grid interfaces. Effective wind speed forecasting is crucial for achieving this goal. In this research, linear statistical models of prediction Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), GAS model with exogenous variable x (GASX), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are the models used to estimate wind speed accurately. Additionally, the modeling of non-linear time-series data has been done using the Non-Linear GASX (NLGASX) statistical predictive modeling method. Additionally, the REctified Linear Unit (RELU), Softmax, Hyperbolic Tangent (TANH), and Sigmoid modeling approaches are used to optimize the suggested NLGASX model. In comparison to existing models, the suggested optimized NLGASX approach performs significantly better. In order to anticipate wind power, the wind power curve modeling additionally takes wind speed as an input. The estimated wind power has been used to determine the yearly energy

Comparative Assessment of Physical and Machine Learning Models for Wind Power Estimation: A Case Study for Hungary

Comparative Assessment of Physical and Machine Learning Models for Wind Power Estimation: A Case Study for Hungary

Characterization of Short-Term Wind Power Variations and Estimation of Reserve Requirements for High Wind Generation Shares

Characterization of Short-Term Wind Power Variations and Estimation of Reserve Requirements for High Wind Generation Shares

Wind Energy Assessment Using Weibull Distribution with Different Numerical Estimation Methods: A Case Study

The demand for electrical energy is increasing every day, which is one of the critical challenges facing the world today. Hence, the necessity of turning to clean renewable energy sources that are not harmful to the environment as an alternative to the traditional generation based on fossil fuels has become more important than ever before. Wind power is one of the renewable sources that provides a clean solution to generate electricity. In this context, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announces renewable energy projects to generate 9 GW from wind in 2032. Hence, the aim of this paper is to investigate the most suitable method of Weibull parameter estimation in order to predict wind characteristics and employ it for wind energy assessment in the Qassim region located in the center of the country. In this study, wind data is collected from NASA's forecasts of global energy resources for 2010–2015 based on their availability at altitudes of 10m and 50m and analyzed by using six different methods for Weibull parameter estimation: the graphical method (GM), standard deviation method (SDM), energy pattern factor method (EPF), moment method (MM), alternative maximum likelihood method (AMLM), and novel energy pattern factor method (NEPF). The efficiency of each method is tested by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) and the relative wind power density error (RPDE). The comparison shows that the most appropriate method for estimating wind power density in the country is the Moment Method (MM), with the lowest RPDE ratio equal to 0.2018%. It has been found that the wind power density in the Qassim region falls into the class 1 category, as it is less than 100 W/m2 at a height of 10m and less than 200 W/m2at an altitude of 50m. The results show the region is only suitable for small off-grid projects. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-06-024 Full Text: PDF

Multilayer LSTM Model for Wind Power Estimation in the Scada System

Wind energy is clean energy that does not pollute the environment. However, the complex and variable operating environment of a wind turbine often makes it difficult to predict the instantaneous active power generated. In this study, a wind turbine active power estimation system based on a short-term memory network (LSTM) using time series analysis is proposed. The data obtained from the wind turbine SCADA system is used as input variables. In the proposed method, a multilayer LSTM architecture is designed to train the model. The first LSTM network consists of 64 units, and the second one consists of 32 units. This is followed by a dense layer consisting of 16 neurons. In the last layer, the architecture is finalized by using a linear activation function for the prediction process. The proposed deep learning (DL)-based LSTM prediction model takes into account environmental factors such as wind speed and wind direction for active power forecasting. The results show that the LSTM-based time series analysis method is capable of effectively capturing time series features among the data. Thus, the proposed architecture can realize high-accuracy active power forecasting.

Tropical Cyclones Related Wind Power on Oceanic Near‐Inertial Oscillations

AbstractWind power input to oceanic near‐inertial oscillations (NIOs) plays a crucial role in sustaining the global ocean conveyor belt. However, the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on wind power input to NIOs, despite being the most vigorous atmospheric dynamics capable of exciting NIOs, is often overlooked in global estimations due to their transient nature and a lack of observations. Utilizing hourly wind and ocean current records, we quantified the wind power on NIOs induced by TCs from 1990 to 2019. Our findings reveal that the wind power on NIOs due to TCs is estimated to be between 0.028 and 0.065 TW, which accounts for a significant proportion, that is, 8%–17%, of that over the globe. This study highlights the importance of incorporating the wind power induced by TCs when estimating the global wind power on NIOs, as its impact is non‐negligible. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the global energy balance by improving the estimation of wind power on NIOs.

Data-driven interpretable ensemble learning methods for the prediction of wind turbine power incorporating SHAP analysis

Wind energy increasingly attracts investment from many countries as a clean and renewable energy source. Since wind energy investment cost is high, the efficiency of a potential wind power plant should be determined using wind power prediction models and wind speed data before installation. Accurate wind power estimation is crucial to set up comprehensive strategies for wind power generation. This study estimated the power produced in a wind turbine using six different regression algorithms based on machine learning using temperature, humidity, pressure, air density, and wind speed data. The proposed estimation model was evaluated on the data received between 2011 and 2020 at station 17,112 in Çanakkale, Turkey. XGBoost, Random Forest, LightGBM, CatBoost, AdaBoost, and M5-Prime algorithms were used to create predictive models. Furthermore, model explanations were presented using the SHAP methodology. Among the regression algorithms evaluated according to the R2 performance metric, the best performance was obtained from the XGBoost algorithm. Regarding computational speed, the LightGBM model emerged as the most efficient model. The wind speed was shown to be the input feature with the SHAP algorithm's most significant impact on the model predictions.

Wind power estimation on local scale—A case study of representativeness of reanalysis data and data-driven analysis

IntroductionWith hydropower being the dominant source of renewable energy in Austria and recent years being disproportionally dry, alternative renewable energy sources need to be tapped to compensate for the reduction of fossil fuels and account for dry conditions. This becomes even more important given the current geopolitical situation. Wind power plays an essential role in decarbonizing Austria's electricity system. For local assessments of historic, recent, and future wind conditions, adequate climate data are essential. Reanalysis data, often used for such assessments, have a coarse spatial resolution and could be unable to capture local wind features relevant for wind power modeling. Thus, raw reanalysis data need post-processing, and the results need to be interpreted with care. The purpose of this study is to assess the quality of three reanalysis data sets, such as MERRA-2, ERA5, and COSMO-REA6, for both surface level and hub height wind speed and wind power production at meteorological observation sites and wind farms in flat and mountainous terrain. Furthermore, the study aims at providing a first knowledge baseline toward generating a novel wind speed and wind power atlas at different hub heights for Austria with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km and for an experimental region with sub-km resolution. Thus, the study tries to answer (i) the questions if the reanalysis and analysis data can reproduce surface-level wind speed and (ii) if wind power calculations based on these data can be trusted, providing a knowledge base for future wind speed and wind power applications in complex terrain.MethodsFor that purpose, a generalized additive model (GAM) is applied to enable a data-driven gridded surface wind speed analysis as well as extrapolation to hub heights as a first step toward generating a novel wind speed atlas. In addition, to account for errors due to the coarse grid of the re-analysis, the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA) and the Global Wind Atlas (GWA) are used for correction using an hourly correction factor accounting for diurnal variations. For the analysis of wind power, an empirical turbine power curve approach was facilitated and applied to five different wind sites in Austria.Results and discussionThe results showed that for surface-level wind speed, the GAM outperforms the reanalysis data sets across all altitude levels with a mean average error (MAE) of 1.65 m/s for the meteorological sites. It even outperforms the NEWA wind atlas, which has an MAE of 3.78 m/s. For flat regions, the raw reanalysis matches the production data better than NEWA, also for hub height wind speeds, following wind power. For the mountainous areas, a correction of the reanalysis data based on the NEWA climatology, or even the NEWA climatology itself, significantly improved wind power evaluations. Comparisons between modeled wind power time series and real data show mean absolute errors of 8% of the nominal power in flat terrain and 14 or 17% in mountainous terrain.

Evaluation of Nakagami and Birnbaum-Saunders probability distribution for wind speed and power estimation

This study compares three probability density functions (PDFs) for understanding and estimating wind power based on wind patterns: the commonly-used Weibull distribution, the relatively-new Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, and the Nakagami distribution. The wind profile of Jumla, Nepal was analyzed using data from 2004 to 2014. The Nakagami distribution performed similarly to the Weibull distribution in terms of understanding wind patterns. However, for estimating wind power, the Nakagami distribution was found to be more effective than the Weibull distribution in most cases. The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution was found to be the least effective of the three PDFs compared.

An intelligent hybrid method based on Monte Carlo simulation for short-term probabilistic wind power prediction

Precise estimation of wind power is exceedingly challenging due to the quick and random fluctuations in wind speed. Therefore, this article presents a probabilistic intelligent method for wind power prediction to minimize the risk caused by the uncertainty of the generated power. The proposed method is realized through four important steps: 1. Analyzing the wind power time series signals; 2. Creating training patterns; 3. Training patterns by applying machine learning; 4. Making a probabilistic prediction based on the Monte-Carlo simulation. To estimate the wind power more accurately, the time series of historical data on wind power are decomposed into different levels by appropriate signal analysis tools, i.e., the wavelet transform and variational mode decomposition. Then, the intelligent tools, i.e., extreme learning machine and support vector regression, are used as predictor cores due to their high speed and accuracy. The obtained results show that the presented method can accurately predict the generated wind power in 10-min intervals for the next hour. Moreover, the average value of the estimated data for 1000 repetition steps in probabilistic protection is very close to the real data. Thus, the proposed method can be effectively applied to both deterministic and probabilistic predictions.

Evaluation of Blended Wind Products and Their Implications for Offshore Wind Power Estimation

The Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind analysis is a satellite-based blended wind product produced using a two-dimensional variational method. The current version available publicly is Version 2 (CCMP2.0), which includes buoy winds in addition to satellite winds. Version 3 of the product (CCMP3.0) is being produced with several improvements in analysis algorithms, without including buoy winds. Here, we compare CCMP3.0 with a special version of CCMP2.0 that did not include buoy winds, so both versions are independent of buoy measurements. We evaluate them using wind data from buoys around the coasts of the United States and discuss the implications for the wind power industry and offshore wind farms. CCMP2.0 uses ERA-Interim 10 m winds as the background to fill observational gaps. CCMP3.0 uses ERA5 10 m neutral winds as the background. Because ERA5 winds are biased towards lower values at higher wind conditions, CCMP3.0 corrected this bias by matching ERA5 wind speeds with satellite scatterometer wind speeds using a histogram matching method. Our evaluation indicates that CCMP3.0 has better agreement with the independent buoy winds, primarily for higher winds (>10 m/s). This is reflected by the higher correlation and lower root-mean-squared differences of CCMP3.0 versus buoy winds, especially for higher wind conditions. For the U.S. coastal region (within 200 km), the mean wind speed of CCMP3.0 is enhanced by 1–2%, and the wind speed standard deviation is enhanced by around 3–5%. These changes in wind speed and its standard deviation from CCMP2.0 to CCMP3.0 cause an 8–12% increase in wind power density. The wind power density along the U.S. coastal region is also correlated with various climate indices depending on locations, providing a useful approach for predicting wind power on subseasonal to interannual timescales.