Unleashing the power of artificial neural networks: accurate estimation of monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama wind farm I, Ethiopia

Abstract

Wind power plays a vital role in the electricity generation of many countries, including Ethiopia. It serves as a valuable complement to hydropower during the dry season, and its affordability is crucial for the growth of industrial centers. However, accurately estimating wind energy poses significant challenges due to its random nature, severe variability, and dependence on wind speed. Numerous techniques have been employed to tackle this problem, and recent research has shown that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models excel in prediction accuracy. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of different ANN network types in estimating the monthly average daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. The collected data was divided into three sets: training (70%), testing (15%), and validation (15%). Four network types, namely Feedforward Backpropagation (FFBP), Cascade Feedforward Backpropagation (CFBP), Error Backpropagation (EBP), and Levenberg–Marquardt (LR), were utilized with seven input parameters for prediction. The performance of these networks was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared (R2). The EBP network type demonstrated exceptional performance in estimating wind power for all wind turbines in Groups GI, GII, and GIII. Additionally, all proposed network types achieved impressive accuracy levels with MAPE ranging from 0.0119 to 0.0489 and R2 values ranging from 0.982 to 0.9989. These results highlight the high predictive accuracy attained at the study site. Consequently, we can conclude that the ANN model’s network types were highly effective in predicting the monthly averaged daily wind power at Adama Wind Farm I. By leveraging the power of ANN models, this research contributes to improving wind energy estimation, thereby enabling more reliable and efficient utilization of wind resources. The findings of this study have practical implications for the wind energy industry and can guide decision-making processes regarding wind power generation and integration into the energy mix.