Abstract
An artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models, and fuzzy rule-based system (FRBS) models are developed to predict the attendance demand in European football games, in this paper. To determine the most successful method, each of the methods is analyzed under different situations. The Elman backpropagation, feed-forward backpropagation, and cascade-forward backpropagation network types are developed to determine the outperforming ANN model. The backpropagation and hybrid optimization methods are used for training fuzzy inference system (FIS) to determine the outperforming ANFIS model. The fuzzy logic model is developed after experimenting different forms of membership functions. To this end, the data of 236 soccer games are used to train the ANN and ANFIS models, and 2017/2018 season's data of these clubs are used to test all of the models. The results of all models are compared with each other and real past data. To assess the performance of each model, two error measures that are Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) are implemented. These measures reveal that the ANN model that has Elman network type outperforms the other models. Finally, the results emphasize that the proposed ANN model can be effectively used for prediction purposes.
Highlights
The economic impact of sports events has grown significantly [1]. us, the attendance demand has become a prominent topic in sports economics and marketing literature [2]
For a detailed literature review, readers can refer to Borland and MacDonald [3] and Villar and Guerrero [4]. e first econometric analysis study of soccer games is presented by Hart et al [5]
Since results of demand forecasting are crucial inputs for decision making and planning, the accuracy of the forecasting is vital. erefore, the most effective attendance determinants are chosen after a comprehensive literature review and interviewing with
Summary
The economic impact of sports events has grown significantly [1]. us, the attendance demand has become a prominent topic in sports economics and marketing literature [2]. Us, the attendance demand has become a prominent topic in sports economics and marketing literature [2]. [7] examined the Ireland football league and found that the uncertainty of outcome, quality of schedule, performance of teams, and rivalry are effective factors. Dobson and Goddard [8] examined English football clubs and found that the population of hometown, league membership period of a team, and the competition degree are effective determinants on the spectator attendance. Garcıa and Rodrıguez [2] examined games in the Spanish First Division Football League and found that the team quality is the most important factor among the factors. Dubin [10] analyzed the data of National Football League (NFL) and found that team performance has significant effects on demand, but it is not the only contributing factor
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