Western North Pacific Basin Research Articles

Application of breeding ensemble to tropical cyclone track forecasts using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model

In this study, a breeding ensemble technique that is designed specifically for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting is presented. By introducing two different scaling factors to represent two different growing modes for the storm-scale and the large-scale processes during the breeding cycling, it is shown that ensemble TC track forecasts with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model can be improved. Retrospective experiments with 14 TCs during the 2009–2011 seasons in the north Western Pacific basin show that the proposed TC-breeding (TCB) method could reduce the track forecast errors most significantly at 4–5 day lead times. Comparison of the track forecast bias between deterministic forecasts and TCB ensemble forecasts shows however that both the TCB ensemble and the deterministic forecasts possess similar pattern of the cross- and along-track forecast errors. This suggests that a significant component of the track bias in the RAMS model is determined by model inherent uncertainties that cannot be removed with the TCB method. Sensitivity experiments with different ensemble members show further that increasing the number of ensemble members could reduce the track forecast errors, but the rate of the track error reduction saturates when the number of ensemble members is larger than 30 due to the inefficiency of the TCB method in orthogonalizing bred vectors. While the TCB method cannot remove intrinsic model errors related to inadequate representation of model physics in the RAMS model or the model resolution, this method could optimize the use of the breeding ensemble for TC track forecasts in real-time forecasting systems with limited computational resources.

Typhoon wind hazard estimation for China using an empirical track model

A probabilistic model for simulating tropical cyclone (TC) track from the genesis to lysis is developed based on historical best-track dataset for western North Pacific basin. The spatially varying model coefficients are determined through regression analysis. Tracks are simulated using the developed probabilistic model; statistics of the key parameters defining the TC track: the translation velocity, storm heading and, relative intensity that is a function of central pressure difference, are estimated at sites along the coastline using the simulated tracks. The statistics of the key parameters are compared with those estimated using historical tracks, indicating the adequacy of the developed empirical track model. The developed track model together with a well-established planetary boundary layer wind field model are subsequently used to assess the TC or typhoon wind hazard, in terms of the return period value of the annual maximum TC wind speed, for coastal region of the mainland China. The estimated wind hazard at selected sites is compared to that based on the circular sub-regional method. Comparison is also extended to the values recommended in Chinese design code at many sites, and the results from the surface wind observations at four sites. It is shown that the estimated typhoon wind hazard is consistent with that derived based on surface wind observations, and the mapped typhoon wind hazard near the coastal line is in good agreement with that presented in current design code.

Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying torrential rain and powerful wind gusts often cause substantial socio-economic losses in the regions around their landfall. This study analyzes intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins during the period 1982–2013. Different intensity criteria are used to define intense TCs for these two basins, category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP, because the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin. Using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. On the basis of the clustering results, a track-pattern-based model is then developed for forecasting the seasonal activities of intense TCs in the two basins. Cross-validation of the model skill for 1982–2013 as well as verification of a forecast for the 2014 TC season suggest that our intense TC model is applicable to operational uses.

Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines

ABSTRACTAn analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) data from 1951 to 2013 in the Philippines revealed that an average of 19.4 TCs enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) every year and nine TCs cross the country. Time series analysis of the TC datasets shows no significant trends in the annual number of TCs in PAR but a slightly decreasing trend in the number of landfalling TCs in the Philippines, particularly in the last two decades. However, while the analysis shows fewer typhoons (above 118 kph), more extreme TCs (above 150 kph) have affected the Philippines. The study also confirms that the Northern island of Luzon is most frequently hit by TCs, and that TC‐associated rainfall is greatest in this region compared to the southernmost part of the country. The impact of TCs shows a consistently increasing trend in economic losses and damages. Further understanding of past and future trends of TC activity in the Western North Pacific Basin, and the PAR, including the impacts associated with them, will provide valuable insights for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management.

Tropical Cyclogenesis Detection in the North Pacific Using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique

AbstractThe deviation angle variance technique (DAV-T) for genesis detection is applied in the western and eastern North Pacific basins. The DAV-T quantifies the axisymmetric organization of cloud clusters using infrared brightness temperature. Since axisymmetry is typically correlated with intensity, the technique can be used to identify relatively high levels of organization at early stages of storm life cycles associated with tropical cyclogenesis. In addition, the technique can be used to automatically track cloud clusters that exhibit signs of organization. In the western North Pacific, automated tracking results for the 2009–11 typhoon seasons show that for a false alarm rate of 25.6%, 96.8% of developing tropical cyclones are detected with a median time of 18.5 h before the cluster reaches an intensity of 30 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track at a DAV threshold of 1750°2. In the eastern North Pacific, for a false alarm rate of 38.0%, the system detects 92.9% of developing tropical cyclones with a median time of 1.25 h before the cluster reaches an intensity of 30 kt in the National Hurricane Center best track during the 2009–11 hurricane seasons at a DAV threshold of 1650°2. A significant decrease in tracked nondeveloping clusters occurs when a second organization threshold is introduced, particularly in the western North Pacific.

Forecasting Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Basin Using the NCEP Operational HWRF: Real-Time Implementation in 2012

Abstract This study documents the recent efforts of the hurricane modeling team at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in implementing the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) for real-time tropical cyclone (TC) forecast guidance in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC) from May to December 2012 in support of the operational forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Evaluation of model performance for the WPAC in 2012 reveals that the model has promising skill with the 3-, 4-, and 5-day track errors being 125, 220, and 290 nautical miles (n mi; 1 n mi = 1.852 km), respectively. Intensity forecasts also show good performance, with the most significant intensity error reduction achieved during the first 24 h. Stratification of the track and intensity forecast errors based on storm initial intensity reveals that HWRF tends to underestimate storm intensity for weak storms and overestimate storm intensity for strong storms. Further analysis of the horizontal distribution of track and intensity forecast errors over the WPAC suggests that HWRF possesses a systematic negative intensity bias, slower movement, and a rightward bias in the lower latitudes. At higher latitudes near the East China Sea, HWRF shows a positive intensity bias and faster storm movement. This appears to be related to underestimation of the dominant large-scale system associated with the western Pacific subtropical high, which renders weaker steering flows in this basin.

Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification*

Abstract The hot tower (HT) in the inner core plays an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). With the help of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme dataset, the potential of HTs in operational RI prediction is reassessed in this study. The stand-alone HT-based RI prediction scheme showed little skill in the northern Atlantic (NA) and eastern and central Pacific (ECP), but yielded skill scores of >0.3 in the southern Indian Ocean (SI) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins. The inaccurate predictions are due to four scenarios: 1) RI events may have already begun prior to the TRMM overpass. 2) RI events are driven by non-HT factors. 3) The HT has already dissipated or has not occurred at the TRMM overpass time. 4) Large false alarms result from the unfavorable environment. When the HT was used in conjunction with the TC’s previous 12-h intensity change, the potential intensity, the percentage area from 50 to 200 km of cloud-top brightness temperatures lower than −10°C, and the 850–200-hPa vertical shear magnitude with the vortex removed, the predictive skill score in the SI was 0.56. This score was comparable to that of the RI index scheme, which is considered the most advanced RI prediction method. When the HT information was combined with the aforementioned four environmental factors in the NA, ECP, South Pacific, and WNP, the skill scores were 0.23, 0.32, 0.42, and 0.42, respectively.

Quantifying Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Response to Warmer Global Temperature

ABSTRACTGlobal warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system.

Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Large-Scale Patterns

AbstractThe intraseasonal variability of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin is explored in this study. The relation of cyclogenesis in each of the five large-scale patterns identified in recent work by Yoshida and Ishikawa is associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Confirming previous results, more events of cyclogenesis are found during the active MJO phase in the WNP. Furthermore, results indicate that most of the tropical cyclogenesis is associated with the monsoon shear line large-scale pattern during the active phase. The genesis potential index (GPI) and its individual components are used to evaluate the environmental factors that most contribute toward cyclogenesis under the different phases of the MJO. GPI exhibits a large positive anomaly during the active phase of the MJO, and such an anomaly is spatially correlated with the events of cyclogenesis. The analysis of each factor indicates that low-level relative vorticity and midlevel relative humidity are the two dominant contributors to the MJO-composited GPI anomalies. The positive GPI anomalies during the active phase are partially offset by the negative contributions from vertical wind shear and potential intensity. This is valid for all five large-scale patterns. It is noteworthy that the easterly wave (EW) large-scale pattern, while exhibiting the same influence of relative vorticity and midlevel humidity contributing toward positive GPI anomalies, presents slightly more cyclogenesis events under the inactive phase of the MJO. This unexpected result suggests that other factors not included in the definition of the GPI and/or changes in environmental flows on other time scales contribute to the tropical cyclogenesis associated with the EW large-scale pattern.

Laboratory measurements of ‘porosity‐free’ intrinsic Vp and Vs in an olivine gabbro of the Oman ophiolite: Implication for interpretation of the seismic structure of lower oceanic crust

AbstractIn order to determine ‘porosity‐free’ intrinsic ultrasonic compressional (Vp) and shear wave (Vs) velocities and Vp/Vs of an olivine gabbro from the Oman ophiolite, we developed a new experimental system using a piston‐cylinder type high‐pressure apparatus. The new system allowed us to measure velocities at pressures ranging from 0.20 to 1.00 GPa and at temperatures up to 300°C for Vp and 400°C for Vs. At room temperature, the Vp and Vp/Vs increase rapidly with pressure up to 0.40 GPa, while between 0.45 and 1.00 GPa the increase is more gradual. The change in increasing rate is attributed to closure of porosity at pressures above 0.45 GPa. Based on the linear regression of data obtained at higher pressures (0.45–1.00 GPa) and extrapolation to the lower pressures, combined with temperature derivatives of velocities of the sample measured at 1.00 GPa, we determined the intrinsic Vp and Vs of the sample as a function of pressure (P, in GPa) and temperature (T, in °C). The intrinsic velocities can be expressed as Vp (km/s) = 7.004 + 0.096 × P − 0.00015 × T, and Vs (km/s) = 3.827 + 0.007 × P − 0.00008 × T. We evaluated the intrinsic Vp and Vs of the olivine gabbro at oceanic crustal conditions and compared them with a velocity depth‐profile of the borehole seismic observatory WP‐2 area in the northwestern Pacific Basin. Although the intrinsic Vp (∼7.0 km/s) and Vs (∼3.8 km/s) for the olivine gabbro studied are comparable to those of seismic layer 3 in the WP‐2 area, the estimated vertical gradients of intrinsic velocities are significantly smaller than those reported from layer 3. These results suggest that velocity profiles of layer 3 in the WP‐2 area may reflect the presence of a minor porosity in lower oceanic crust, which closes with increasing depth and/or continuous changes in mineralogy of layer 3 rocks.

Relationship between Typhoons with Concentric Eyewalls and ENSO in the Western North Pacific Basin

Abstract The typhoons with concentric eyewalls (CE) over the western North Pacific in different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 1997 and 2012 are studied. They find a good correlation (0.72) between the annual CE typhoon number and the oceanic Niño index (ONI), with most of the CE typhoons occurring in the warm and neutral episodes. In the warm (neutral) episode, 55% (50%) of the typhoons possessed a CE structure. In contrast, only 25% of the typhoons possessed a CE structure in the cold episode. The CE formation frequency is also significantly different with 0.9 (0.2) CEs per month in the warm (cold) episode. There are more long-lived CE cases (CE structure maintained more than 20 h) and typhoons with multiple CE formations in the warm episodes. There are no typhoons with multiple CE formations in the cold episode. The warm episode CE typhoons generally have a larger size, stronger intensity, and smaller variation in convective activity and intensity. This may be due to the fact that the CE formation location is farther east in the warm episodes. Shifts in CE typhoon location with favorable conditions thus produce long-lived CE typhoons and multiple CE formations. The multiple CE formations may lead to expansion of the typhoon size.

Comparison of Wave Packets Associated with Extratropical Transition and Winter Cyclones

Abstract Differences in the development of wave packets associated with midlatitude cyclones and the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) and Atlantic basins are diagnosed observationally by compositing Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data over a 32-yr period and applying the null hypothesis of no difference in the development, structure, propagation, or downstream extent. While the development of midlatitude cyclones during the fall (August–October) and winter (November–March) amplifies a preexisting wave packet moving through the midlatitude storm track, ET is associated with the quasi-stationary amplification of the midlatitude flow. The ET cases involving the interaction of the decaying TC with a preexisting midlatitude trough are associated with a greater downstream amplitude and longer-lasting downstream response than ET cases that do not involve the interaction with a trough. In the WNP, ET wave packets have greater amplitude than those associated with winter midlatitude cyclones, but are similar to those associated with fall midlatitude cyclones. Moreover, ET events are associated with larger wavelengths and a statistically significant meridional wind anomaly farther downstream. By contrast, ET wave packets in the Atlantic basin have less amplitude and do not reach as far downstream as wave packets associated with fall and winter cyclones. WNP ET is characterized by larger integrated moisture flux convergence and, thus, latent heat release relative to its midlatitude counterpart, while Atlantic basin ET has smaller moisture flux convergence compared to midlatitude cyclones, which could explain why Atlantic ET is associated with less-amplified wave packets.

Re-examination of tropical cyclone formation in monsoon troughs over the western North Pacific

The monsoon trough (MT) is one of the large-scale patterns favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study re-examines TC formation by treating the MT as a large-scale background for TC activity during May–October. Over an 11-year (2000–10) period, 8.3 TC formation events on average per year are identified to occur within MTs, accounting for 43.1% of the total TC formation events in the WNP basin. This percentage is much lower than those reported in previous studies. Further analysis indicates that TC formation events in monsoon gyres were included at least in some previous studies. The MT includes a monsoon confluence zone where westerlies meet easterlies and a monsoon shear line where the trade easterlies lie north of the monsoon westerlies. In this study, the large-scale flow pattern associated with TC formation in the MT is composited based on the reference point in the confluence zone where both the zonal and meridional wind components are zero with positive vorticity. While previous studies have found that many TCs form in the confluence zone, the composite analysis indicates that nearly all of the TCs formed in the shear region, since the shear region is associated with stronger low-level relative vorticity than the confluence zone. The prevailing easterly vertical shear of zonal wind and barotropic instability may also be conducive to TC formation in the shear region, through the development of synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in the MT that are necessary for TC formation.

Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method

This study conducted 24- to 72-h multi-model ensemble forecasts to explore the tracks and intensities (central mean sea level pressure) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Forecast data for the northwestern Pacific basin in 2010 and 2011 were selected from the China Meteoro- logical Administration, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteoro- logical Agency, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction datasets of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble project. The Kalman Filter was employed to conduct the TC forecasts, along with the ensemble mean and super-ensemble for comparison. The following results were obtained: (1) The statistical-dynamic Kalman Filter, in which recent observations are given more importance and model weighting coefficients are adjusted over time, produced quite different results from that of the super- ensemble. (2) The Kalman Filter reduced the TC mean absolute track forecast error by approximately 50, 80 and 100 km in the 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts, respectively, compared with the best individual model (ECMWF). Also, the intensity forecasts were improved by the Kalman Filter to some extent in terms of average intensity deviation (AID) and correlation coefficients with reanalysis intensity data. Overall, the Kalman Filter technique performed better compared to multi-models, the ensemble mean, and the super-ensemble in 3-day forecasts. The implication of this study is that this technique appears to be a very promising statistical-dynamic method for multi-model ensemble forecasts of TCs.

Westward shift of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific or typhoons account for one third of all TCs in the world and the change of the mean TC genesis location can affect billions of people in Pacific islands and Asian countries. The annual mean TC genesis longitude is generally controlled by the east‐west shift of the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). A pronounced westward shift in the TUTT is found in all of the available reanalysis data sets during 1979–2012, suppressing TC genesis in the eastern portion (east of 145°E) of the western North Pacific basin due to the enhanced vertical wind shear associated with the TUTT shift. As a result, the annual mean TC genesis longitude has significantly shifted westward since 1979. The westward shifting trends in the TUTT and TC genesis are associated with the enhanced tropical tropospheric warming, which is consistent with the response of the tropospheric temperature to global warming.

A downscaling technique to simulate changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity between two types of El Niño events

Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin between the Modoki and canonical El Nino years have been simulated and examined in this study based on a downscaling technique. The downscaling technique is used for generating synthetic TCs based on TC formation, TC track, and TC intensity models. Results suggest that the downscaling technique can well simulate the spatial distribution of TC activity during the two types of El Nino years and their differences. It is found that the observed changes in TC tracks during the two types of El Nino years are mainly due to the combined effects of changes in TC formation locations and large-scale steering flows. Further examinations have shown that changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role than changes in TC formation locations. These results are in accordance with the cyclonic circulation anomaly found during the Modoki El Nino years compared to that during the canonical El Nino years. Numerical simulations further suggest that changes in TC tracks between the two types of El Nino years appear to be the most important factor affecting the TC intensity change. Compared to that during the Modoki El Nino years, TC formation is enhanced in the south quadrant of the WNP basin and more TCs take a northwestward track during the canonical El Nino years, leading to a longer TC lifespan and greater TC intensity.

The influence of large-scale circulations on the extremely inactive tropical cyclone activity in 2010 over the western North Pacific

This study attempts to understand why the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) was a record low during the 2010 season, by analyzing the effect of several large-scale factors. The genesis potential index (GPI) can represent, to some extent, the spatial distribution of formation in 2010. However, the GPI does not explain the extremely low TC frequency. No robust relationship between the TCnumber and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found. A comparison of the extreme inactive TC year 2010 and extreme active year 1994 was performed, based on the box difference index that can measure the quantitative difference of large-scale environmental factors. Dynamic factors were found to be important in differentiating TC formation over the WNP basin between 2010 and 1994. The remarkable difference of monsoon flows in the WNP basin between these two years may be the cause of the difference in TC formation. The unfavorable conditions for TC genesis in 2010 may have also been due to other large scale factors such as: (1) weak activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the peak season; (2) warming of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean during the peak season, causing the development of an anticyclone over the WNP basin and associated with the westward motion of the monsoon trough, and(3) the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (more negative) and the two strong La Niña eventsthat have evolved since 2006.

Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late‐season of 2010 and 1998 over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

AbstractThis study attempts to understand why the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea was so low in 2010 and 1998 even though a strong La Niña signal occurred in both years. We found that the TC frequency during the late‐season (October to December), not in the peak season (July to September), makes 2010 a record low year; the next lowest year is 1998. Specifically, four TCs were observed over the South China Sea (SCS) in the late‐season of 1998, but no TCs occurred over the SCS in the same season during 2010. The genesis potential index is used to help diagnose changes in environmental conditions for TC genesis frequency. Results indicate that the decreased low‐level vorticity makes the largest contribution to the decreased TC formation over the SCS. The second largest contribution comes from the enhanced vertical wind shear, with relatively small contributions from the negative anomaly in potential intensity and reduction in midlevel relative humidity. These observational results are consistent with numerical simulations using a state of the art model from the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI‐AGCM 3.2 Model). Numerical experiments show that the unfavorable conditions for sharply decreased TC formation during the late‐season over the SCS in 2010 mainly results from the sea surface temperature anomaly over the western North Pacific basin. This effect is partly offset by the sea surface temperature anomaly in the South Indian Ocean and Northern Indian Ocean basins.

The influence of large-scale circulations on the extremely inactive tropical cyclone activity in 2010 over the western North Pacific

This study attempts to understand why the frequency of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) was a record low during the 2010 season, by analyzing the effect of several large-scale factors. The genesis potential index (GPI) can represent, to some extent, the spatial distribution of formation in 2010. However, the GPI does not explain the extremely low TC frequency. No robust relationship between the TC number and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found. A comparison of the extreme inactive TC year 2010 and extreme active year 1994 was performed, based on the box difference index that can measure the quantitative difference of large-scale environmental factors. Dynamic factors were found to be important in differentiating TC formation over the WNP basin between 2010 and 1994. The remarkable difference of monsoon flows in the WNP basin between these two years may be the cause of the difference in TC formation. The unfavorable conditions for TC genesis in 2010 may have also been due to other large scale factors such as: (1) weak activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the peak season; (2) warming of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean during the peak season, causing the development of an anticyclone over the WNP basin and associated with the westward motion of the monsoon trough, and (3) the phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (more negative) and the two strong La Niña events that have evolved since 2006.

Tropical cyclones in a year of rising global temperatures and a strengthening El Niño.

The year 2015 is notable for the coincidence of several strong climate indicators that having bearing on the occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide. This year, 2015, is clearly on track to become the warmest on record in terms of global temperatures. During the latter half of 2015, a very strong El Niño has formed and is predicted to build impressively, perhaps rivaling the memorable El Niño of 1997/1998. Warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, coupled with a strengthening El Niño, have supported the proliferation of Western North Pacific basin typhoons and Eastern/Central North Pacific Hurricanes. Most notable among these, Hurricane Patricia formed on October 20, 2015 and experienced extremely rapid intensification to become the strongest hurricane in the history of the Western Hemisphere and then weakened just as abruptly before dissipating on October 24, 2015. Rather than an aberration, these climate patterns of 2015 represent an ongoing trend with implications for the disaster health of coastal populations worldwide.