Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins

Abstract

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying torrential rain and powerful wind gusts often cause substantial socio-economic losses in the regions around their landfall. This study analyzes intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins during the period 1982–2013. Different intensity criteria are used to define intense TCs for these two basins, category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP, because the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin. Using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. On the basis of the clustering results, a track-pattern-based model is then developed for forecasting the seasonal activities of intense TCs in the two basins. Cross-validation of the model skill for 1982–2013 as well as verification of a forecast for the 2014 TC season suggest that our intense TC model is applicable to operational uses.