Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines

Abstract

ABSTRACTAn analysis of tropical cyclone (TC) data from 1951 to 2013 in the Philippines revealed that an average of 19.4 TCs enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) every year and nine TCs cross the country. Time series analysis of the TC datasets shows no significant trends in the annual number of TCs in PAR but a slightly decreasing trend in the number of landfalling TCs in the Philippines, particularly in the last two decades. However, while the analysis shows fewer typhoons (above 118 kph), more extreme TCs (above 150 kph) have affected the Philippines. The study also confirms that the Northern island of Luzon is most frequently hit by TCs, and that TC‐associated rainfall is greatest in this region compared to the southernmost part of the country. The impact of TCs shows a consistently increasing trend in economic losses and damages. Further understanding of past and future trends of TC activity in the Western North Pacific Basin, and the PAR, including the impacts associated with them, will provide valuable insights for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management.