West-central Alberta Research Articles

Quantitative estimate of fracture density variations in the Nordegg with azimuthal AVO and curvature: A case study

We investigated the accuracy of surface seismic attributes in predicting fracture density variations within the Nordegg Formation in west central Alberta. We know from core, drill samples, well-log, and drilling data that the Nordegg zone is fractured to some degree. These fractures are of interest because the reservoir has very low permeability, and therefore natural fractures may materially affect well performance. 3D surface seismic techniques such as amplitude variation with azimuth or azimuthal AVO (AVAz), variation of velocity with azimuth (VVAz), curvature, and coherence techniques are all tools that have been used to predict fractures in a qualitative fashion. In this study, we wanted to understand how well these attributes predicted the reservoir quality in a quantitative fashion. Previous quantitative studies have used image log orientation data or estimated ultimate recoveries (EUR) in vertical wells as validation data. The conclusiveness of these studies has been subject to several problems: firstly, the limited sample statistics provided by vertical wells applied to the validation of lateral variations, and secondly by the potential nonuniqueness of the EUR to fracture density relationship.

Cougar Kill Rate and Prey Composition in a Multiprey System

Assessing the impact of large carnivores on ungulate prey has been challenging in part because even basic components of predation are difficult to measure. For cougars (Puma concolor), limited field data are available concerning fundamental aspects of predation, such as kill rate, or the influence of season, cougar demography, or prey vulnerability on predation, leading to uncertainty over how best to predict or interpret cougar–ungulate dynamics. Global Positioning System (GPS) telemetry used to locate predation events in the field is an efficient way to monitor large numbers of cougars over long periods in all seasons. We applied GPS telemetry techniques combined with occasional snow-tracking to locate 1,509 predation events for 53 marked and an unknown number of unmarked cougars and amassed 9,543 days of continuous predation monitoring for a subset of 42 GPS-collared cougars in west-central Alberta, Canada. Cougars killed ungulates at rates near the upper end of the previously recorded range, and demography substantially influenced annual kill rate in terms of both number of ungulates (subad F [SAF] = 24, subad M [SAM] = 31, ad M = 35, ad F = 42, ad F with kittens <6 months = 47, ad F with kittens >6 months = 67) and kg of prey (SAF = 1,441, SAM = 2,051, ad M = 4,708, ad F = 2,423, ad F with kittens <6 months = 2,794, ad F with kittens >6 months = 4,280). Demography also influenced prey composition; adult females subsisted primarily on deer (Odocoileus spp.), whereas adult males killed more large ungulates (e.g., moose [Alces alces]), and subadults incorporated the highest proportion of nonungulate prey. Predation patterns varied by season and cougars killed ungulates 1.5 times more frequently in summer when juveniles dominated the diet. Higher kill rate in summer appeared to be driven primarily by greater vulnerability of juvenile prey and secondarily by reduced handling time for smaller prey. Moreover, in accordance with predictions of the reproductive vulnerability hypothesis, female ungulates made up a higher proportion of cougar diet in spring just prior to and during the birthing period, whereas the proportion of males increased dramatically in autumn during the rut, supporting the notion that prey vulnerability influences cougar predation. Our results have implications for the impact cougars have on ungulate populations and have application for using cougar harvest to manage ungulates.

Grizzly Bear conservation in the Foothills Model Forest: appraisal of a collaborative ecosystem management effort

In west-central Alberta, Canada, an ambitious collaborative conservation program for grizzly bears began in 1999, after extensive controversy over the Cheviot coal mine project and successful negotiation of a unique federal–provincial strategic framework for grizzly bear conservation. Unfortunately that program was effectively terminated without any substantive implementation of its research findings. The regional ecosystem approach for conserving grizzlies in the Foothills Model Forest originated in federal and provincial legislative processes but proved vulnerable to shifting goals and containment by a single powerful participant. This case study’s results demonstrate vulnerabilities of the ecosystem management approach to conserving large carnivores. To enable other such conservation efforts to achieve their goals, we recommend supporting emergent small-scale initiatives and designing collaborative institutions that limit the potential for containment of decision processes.

Borioteiioidean lizard skulls from Kleskun Hill (Wapiti Formation; upper Campanian), west-central Alberta, Canada

ABSTRACT New material of borioteiioidean lizards (Squamata: Scincomorpha) from west-central Alberta, Canada, represent the first and northernmost record of multiple articulated skull elements from the Cretaceous of North America. Specimens were recovered from the fluvial beds of the Wapiti Formation (Campanian) within a bentonitic paleosol exposed at the Kleskun Hill Park, east of the city of Grande Prairie. Such beds accumulated during the maximum transgression of the Bearpaw Seaway (73–74 Ma), thus providing crucial information on lizard faunas during a time interval represented in most of coeval North American deposits by marine strata. Cranial material ascribed to Socognathus unicuspis give the occasion for a revision of the taxon with respect to osteologically better-known Polyglyphanodon sternbergi from the Late Cretaceous of Utah as well as a comparison with several lizards reported from coeval strata of Mongolia. Furthermore, a new scincomorphan lizard, Kleskunsaurus grandeprairiensis, gen. et sp. nov., is described. Socognathus unicuspis is assigned to Chamopsiidae, taxon nov., which also includes Chamops, Leptochamops, and several other morphologically similar taxa from the Cretaceous of North America.

Dynamic wildlife habitat models: Seasonal foods and mortality risk predict occupancy-abundance and habitat selection in grizzly bears

Most current wildlife habitat models, such as resource selection functions, typically assume a static environment, extrapolate poorly in space and time, and often lack linkages to population processes. We submit that more mechanistic habitat models that directly consider bottom-up resources affecting growth and reproduction (i.e., food) and top-down limitations affecting survival are needed to effectively predict habitat quality, especially in the presence of rapid environmental change. Here we present a general model for estimating potential habitat quality (relating to growth and reproduction) and realised habitat quality (accounting for survival) using basic knowledge of the species’ seasonal diet, predicted locations of food resource patches and regional patterns in mortality risk. We illustrate our model for a threatened population of grizzly bears in west-central Alberta. Bi-monthly potential habitat quality successfully predicted habitat selection by radio-collared grizzly bears, while multi-seasonal realised habitat quality predicted patterns in occupancy-abundance as measured from unique bears at hair-snag sites. Bottom-up resources therefore predicted patterns of habitat selection, while top-down processes (survival) were necessary to scale-up to population measures. We suggest that more direct measures of resources and environments that affect growth, reproduction and survival, as well as match the temporal scale of animal behaviour, be considered when developing wildlife habitat models.

Are migrant and resident elk (Cervus elaphus) exposed to similar forage and predation risk on their sympatric winter range?

Partially migratory populations, where one portion of a population conducts seasonal migrations (migrants) while the other remains on a single range (residents), are common in ungulates. Studies that assess trade-offs between migratory strategies typically compare the amount of predation risk and forage resources migrants and residents are exposed to only while on separate ranges and assume both groups intermix completely while on sympatric ranges. Here we provide one of the first tests of this assumption by comparing the amount of overlap between home ranges of GPS-collared migrant and resident elk and fine-scale exposure to wolf predation risk and forage biomass at telemetry locations on a sympatric winter range in west-central Alberta, Canada. Overlap between migrant and resident home ranges increased throughout the winter, and both groups were generally intermixed and exposed to equal forage biomass. During the day, both migrants and residents avoided predation risk by remaining in areas far from timber with high human activity, which wolves avoided. However, at night wolves moved onto the grasslands close to humans and away from timber. Resident elk were consistently closer to areas of human activity and further from timber than migrants, possibly because of a habituation to humans. As a result, resident elk were exposed to higher night-time predation risk than migrants. Our study does not support the assumption that migrant and resident elk are exposed to equal predation risk on their sympatric range when human presence alters predation risk dynamics and habituation to humans is unequal between migratory strategies.

Identifying Movement States From Location Data Using Cluster Analysis

ABSTRACT Animal movement studies regularly use movement states (e.g., slow and fast) derived from remotely sensed locations to make inferences about strategies of resource use. However, the number of movement state categories used is often arbitrary and rarely inferred from the data. Identifying groups with similar movement characteristics is a statistical problem. We present a framework based on k‐means clustering and gap statistic for evaluating the number of movement states without making a priori assumptions about the number of clusters. This allowed us to distinguish 4 movement states using turning angle and step length derived from Global Positioning System locations and head movements derived from tip switches in a neck collar of free‐ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) in west central Alberta, Canada. Based on movement characteristics and on the linkage between each state and landscape features, we were able to identify inter‐patch movements, intra‐patch foraging, rest, and inter‐patch foraging movements. Linking behavior to environment (e.g., state‐dependent habitat use) can inform decisions on landscape management for wildlife.

Fluvial Sequence Stratigraphy: The Wapiti Formation, West-Central Alberta, Canada

Abstract Outcrop exposures and high-resolution subcrop data allow the description and mapping of four stratigraphic discontinuities in the fully nonmarine strata of the Campanian–Maastrichtian Wapiti Formation (Western Interior foreland basin, Alberta, Canada). This framework defines four unconformity-bounded depositional sequences (A–D), based on sequence stratigraphic methodology, well-log patterns, and facies analysis. In ascending order, sequence A records the transition from the underlying marine facies of the Puskwaskau Formation into the Wapiti fluvial facies, and consists of strongly progradational and aggradational stacking patterns. Sequences B and C show a similar pattern of basal amalgamated channel-fill deposits that grade upwards into floodplain-dominated strata. Finally, sequence D is dominated by channelized sediments and extensive overbank facies. An aggradational stacking pattern suggests deposition under high-accommodation conditions. Maximum flooding surfaces are interpreted within fine-grained deposits in the upper portions of sequences C and D. They are tied to regionally extensive coals that accumulated more than 250 km away from the coeval shoreline. This study provides new evidence that major coal seams may represent the extension of marine maximum flooding surfaces into the downstream-controlled fluvial realm. Furthermore, the new stratigraphic framework of subaerial unconformities and maximum flooding surfaces provides the means of subdividing the previously undifferentiated fully nonmarine Wapiti Formation into depositional sequences and component systems tracts.

Assessing forest management strategies under a mountain pine beetle attack in Alberta: exploring the impacts

We explore how forest resource managers can respond to a potential outbreak of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) by assessing how well different forest management strategies achieve various management objectives over time. Strategies include targeting at-risk stands as well as increasing harvest levels. Outcomes are evaluated on the basis of volume flows, net revenues, and the age class structure of the ending inventory. We use a spatially and temporally explicit model to simulate forest management outcomes and consider two different scenarios, one in which the attack occurs early and one where it is delayed. The model utilizes a planning with recourse approach in which the firm can reevaluate its harvesting schedule following the attack. We use company data from west-central Alberta for a 40-year planning exercise. The timing of the attack resulted in small differences in timber supply. However, most strategies performed better financially under an early attack, which limits the harvest of marginal stands. Increasing harvest levels performed better in economic terms but resulted in a very young growing stock with little old forest. The success of any strategy is linked to the timing of the attack and how it affects the growing stock, subsequently impacting timber and revenue flows.

Early vegetation control for the regeneration of a single-cohort, intimate mixture of white spruce and trembling aspen on upland boreal sites

In Canada’s boreal forest region, there is increasing demand for practical regeneration strategies that will recreate mixed stands of white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.). In 2002, we implemented an experiment in both west-central Alberta and northeastern Ontario to better understand the effects of herbaceous and woody vegetation control on crop tree survival and growth, within the context of prescription development for the regeneration of a single-cohort, intimate mixture of spruce and aspen. After five growing seasons, good spruce growth, health, and survival were observed with 2 m radial treatments consisting of herbaceous and woody (i.e., complete) vegetation control centred on trees planted at 5 m spacing. These spruce were 4%–64% taller and 68%–178% larger in stem diameter than untended trees, leading to 167%–1166% gains in stem volume, and were at least equivalent to the same stock grown at 2.5 m spacing and provided with complete, continuous relief from competition. Removing only the woody vegetation within treated radii stimulated herbaceous competition, resulting in reduced survival and growth of spruce and reduced height of surrounding aspen. Early results suggest that spot treatments that provide 2–4 years of relief from herbaceous and woody competition may offer a practical strategy for growing spruce with aspen.

Spatial and temporal use of roads by grizzly bears in west-central Alberta

Resource extraction activities in Alberta, Canada, have produced a large increase in the number of roads in grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) habitat. High road densities have been associated with high grizzly bear mortality rates in some areas. We used GPS data from grizzly bears in west-central Alberta, Canada, 1999–2005 to examine (1) frequencies at which grizzly bears crossed roads (standardized by number of locations/bear and length of road segments), using a crossing index analysis among age–sex classes, traffic volumes, seasons, and time of day; (2) habitat attributes surrounding crossing locations, using a resource selection function analysis to discern if certain habitats and road types were associated with crossing areas; and (3) grizzly bear distribution near roads as a function of age–sex class and season to determine if bears were near roads more or less frequently than expected. Females had higher crossing indices than males for all seasons and daylight hours. Crossings occurred most often at narrow, unpaved roads near creeks and in open areas with high greenness scores. In spring, females with cubs were within 200 m of roads more frequently than expected. In autumn, subadult females were within 200 m of roads more frequently than expected, whereas adult males displayed the reverse pattern. These results indicate that females had a greater chance of encountering humans. Reducing the density of roads in grizzly bear habitat or reducing human presence on these roads, especially during the spring and fall seasons, may reduce the human-caused mortality to female grizzly bears. Creating or leaving a dense tree buffer along roads that traverse open habitats could provide a visual shield from passing vehicles, which may reduce grizzly bear–human encounters and human-caused mortalities.

Comparison of Landsat multispectral and IRS panchromatic imagery for landscape pattern analysis of grizzly bear habitat in agricultural areas of western Alberta

The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos L.) is a species that is widely recognized as an indicator of ecosystem health in west-central Alberta. Agricultural activities, oil and gas exploration and extraction, forestry, and recreation can all contribute to grizzly bear habitat fragmentation and loss. The purpose of this research was to compare two models of grizzly bear activity in agricultural areas of western Alberta, Canada, developed from landscape pattern metrics derived from Landsat and Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) based land cover classifications and assess if these models statistically converged on the same landscape metrics. Results were further explained by considering the influence of spatial, spectral, and thematic resolution, along with previous knowledge on grizzly bear habitat preference. The Landsat- and IRS-based analyses were compared using relationships between landscape metrics and both grizzly bear presence-absence data and frequency of use data. Results indicated that landscape spatial structure had at least some role in determining whether or not grizzly bears would use an area in an agricultural landscape. It was concluded that the thematic resolution represented the greatest impact on compositional metrics for both the grizzly bear presence-absence and frequency of use analyses, i.e., the Landsat-based product was more suited to revealing the function of the compositional metrics than the IRS-based product. Configurational metrics, however, were more sensitive to the higher spatial resolution map derived from the IRS data. Landscape management recommendations are suggested in the context of these geospatial results.

Reservoir characterization and facies prediction within the Late Cretaceous Doe Creek Member, Valhalla field, west-central Alberta, Canada

Oil resources at Valhalla field of west-central Alberta, Canada, are stratigraphically trapped within the Upper Cretaceous Doe Creek Member of the Kaskapau Formation. The reservoir is subdivided into four thin (1–10 m [3–33 ft]), cyclic alternations of offshore mudrock and shoreface sandstone that are designated the I 1, I, I + 1, and I + 2 units. The thickest and most widespread I sandstone is the primary reservoir. Optimum reservoir quality corresponds to coarser grain shoreface sandstone; however, reservoir quality may be diminished by postdepositional calcite cement commonly observed near the top of shoreface sandstones. Open-hole well logs are used to predict depositional facies and calcite cement occurrence in wells that lack core control. Decreasing shale volume (Vsh) and increasing deep resistivity values correspond to progressively shallower water deposits. Zones of calcite-cemented shoreface sandstone greater than 0.5 m (1.6 ft) thick are interpreted when the neutron porosity exceeds the density porosity by more than 7%. Facies distributions predicted for the I sandstone closely match trends of the sandstone gross pore volume and daily total fluid production, and suggest that open-hole well logs may be used to anticipate reservoir quality and continuity. Regional and local observations support previous interpretations that attribute the Doe Creek to forebulge erosion and southwestward sediment transport toward a foredeep where shoreface sandstones accumulated within a coastal embayment to the Western Interior seaway. Regionally, the Doe Creek interval thins northeast of Valhalla and is truncated beneath the K1 unconformity, and shoreface sandstone bodies are encased within offshore mudrocks and detached from their contemporaneous shoreline. Locally at Valhalla, the Doe Creek reservoir progrades toward the southwest and is extensively and commonly uniformly burrowed by a relatively diverse assemblage of trace makers.

Review of Mannville Coal Geomechanical Properties: Application to Coalbed Methane Drilling in the Central Alberta Plains, Canada

The objective of this study was to review and analyze geomechanical data, primarily for the Lower Cretaceous Mannville Group coals in the Pembina-Warburg area of west-central Alberta, Canada. These coals have been the target for coalbed methane exploration and development via vertical and horizontal drilling. The data focused on the mechanical and acoustic laboratory-derived properties available in the public domain as well as on the compressional and shear velocity data and calculated dynamic and static elastic properties. The review showed that rock mechanical data could be used for a range of drilling and reservoir engineering applications, such as borehole stability and fracture stimulation design. The velocity and dynamic elastic property data could also be used for petrophysical and geophysical applications.

CO2 Flooding Potential in West-Central Alberta: Generalized BusinessCase of a Medicine River/Gilby Area Mature Waterflooded Reservoir

Abstract There are several maturing waterfloods in the Medicine River/Gilby region of West-Central Alberta which are operating at high reservoir pressures, and are suitable candidates for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) by CO2 flooding. Potential CO2 supplies also exist in the region from various petrochemical, as well as sour gas and solution gas processing plants. A prototype reservoir was selected for a detailed "business case" study. CO2 flooding and geological storage were seen to be feasible in the prototype reservoir based on geological/ reservoir reviews, laboratory testing and reservoir simulation. Economic parameters (payout periods for the investment, rates of return) on risk-weighted basis were moderate in light of front-end capital requirements for extraction, recycle and transportation facilities. The situation would change for the better if regional infrastructure for CO2 capture, extraction and transport is developed. This, in turn, is dependent upon adequate assured demand. On the other hand, demand won't develop unless there is appropriate infrastructure in-place. Fragmented ownership of the resource and of CO2-rich waste gas streams, as well as inertia favouring status quo, are some of the other challenges. We present here a generalized "business case" for illustrating some of the issues of CO2-EOR implementation. Introduction CO2-EOR is receiving increasing attention mainly because of the following emerging trends:Increasing awareness of potential reserves addition by CO2 flooding in mature sedimentary basins such as the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), based on performance of Weyburn and Joffre Viking CO2 flooding projects in WCSB, and also in various oil fields of West Texas Permian Basin.Growing recognition of the importance of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and anticipated incentives for CCS projects in value-added mode such as EOR.Consensus that the main barrier to widespread implementation of CO2-EOR in Alberta is lack of supply and transportation infrastructure for CO2.

Predictive diagenetic clay-mineral distribution in siliciclastic rocks as a tool for identifying sequence boundaries in non-marine successions: the Coalspur Formation, west-central Alberta

Predictive diagenetic clay-mineral distribution in siliciclastic rocks as a tool for identifying sequence boundaries in non-marine successions: the Coalspur Formation, west-central AlbertaThe study of upper Cretaceous-lower Tertiary fluvial deposits of the Coalspur Formation in the Foothills region of west-central Alberta reveals that the distribution of early authigenic kaolinite has a well-defined relation to the sequence stratigraphic framework. In this context, it has been observed that the kaolin mineral content increases in sandstones lying below subaerial unconformities, which mark the most significant stratigraphic hiatuses and hence the sequence boundaries in fully fluvial successions. The increased abundance of authigenic kaolinite immediately below sequence boundaries may have been caused by the infiltration of meteoric water during times of subaerial erosion, resulting in the dissolution of unstable minerals (e.g., micas and feldspar) and the formation of kaolinite and secondary porosity. It is therefore suggested that the change in clay mineral assemblages in the stratigraphic section depends in part on the position of the analyzed sandstone samples relative to the sequence boundaries. In a larger context, the method of using authigenic clays to delineate depositional sequences in non-marine successions needs to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, as the diagnostic early diagenetic minerals underlying the sequence boundary may change as a function of palaeoclimate and also as a function of late diagenetic processes.

Comment on “A high latitude vertebrate fossil assemblage from the Late Cretaceous of west-central Alberta, Canada: Evidence for dinosaur nesting and vertebrate latitudinal gradient” By F. Fanti and T. Miyashita [Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 275 (2009) 37–53

A recent paper by Fanti and Miyashita (2009. A high latitude vertebrate fossil assemblage from the Late Cretaceous of west-central Alberta, Canada: Evidence for dinosaur nesting and vertebrate latitudinal gradient. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 275, 37–53) reports on a new assemblage of terrestrial vertebrate fossils from the Campanian (Late Cretaceous) of northern Alberta. In addition to the several dinosaur and microvertebrate specimens reported by Fanti and Miyashita (2009), the new assemblage also contains two mammalian teeth, identified by the authors as pertaining to “ Cimolodon sp.” and “ Didelphodon sp.” The taxonomic identifications of these teeth are either highly questionable or simply incorrect, and the accompanying descriptions are replete with errors; as a result of these lapses, at least part of the biogeographic conclusions drawn by the authors about the Kleskun Hills Park area is also rendered incorrect. While the discovery of a Late Cretaceous high-latitude vertebrate fauna in Alberta is unquestionably important, the significance of the Kleskun Hills mammalian taxa, both taxonomically and biogeographically, should be reconsidered.

Depositional facies analysis and modeling of the Judy Creek reef complex of the Upper Devonian Swan Hills, Alberta, Canada

Judy Creek, located in west-central Alberta, is one of the largest reservoirs in the Swan Hills oil field. Judy Creek is an isolated reef complex of the Upper Devonian Swan Hills Formation. This mature field has about 350 wells drilled and nearly 6000 m (19,685 ft) of cores and thus provides a good database for depositional facies analysis and testing methods for integrating descriptive and quantitative data in facies modeling. General depositional facies and sequence stratigraphy of Judy Creek have been studied quite extensively. However, no three-dimensional numeric facies model has been built to guide the field development. One of the objectives in constructing such a model for this study was to establish a close linkage between the facies depositional analysis and modeling. As a matter of fact, there have been significant disconnects between descriptive analysis and numeric modeling in the exploration and production. Depositional facies analysis has focused on conceptual understanding for prospect generation and reservoir delineation, whereas facies modeling has emphasized data mining for field development. In this study, a method that integrates the spatial propensity from the depositional conceptual models and facies data from the wells is used to bridge the gap between the depositional analysis and stochastic modeling. Such integration has proven to be critical in building realistic subsurface models in Judy Creek because it helped improve the estimation of subsurface resources.

A Disturbance-Inventory Framework for Flexible and Reliable Landscape Monitoring

Remote sensing plays a key role in landscape monitoring, but our handling of these data in a multi-temporal time series is not yet fully developed. Of particular concern is the presence of spatial and thematic errors in independently created maps that distort measures of landscape pattern and constrain the reliability of change analysis. In addition, there is a need to incorporate continuous attributes of cover gradients for flexible map representations that support a variety of applications. In this paper, we present a framework for generating temporally and categorically dynamic land-cover maps that provide such a reliable and adaptable foundation. The centerpiece is a spatio-temporal disturbance-inventory database, created through semi-automated change detection and conditioned with boundary-matching procedures, which can be used to backdate and update both continuous and categorical reference maps. We demonstrate our approach using multi-annual Landsat imagery from a forested region in west-central Alberta, Canada, between the years 1998 and 2005.

Modeling fire susceptibility in west central Alberta, Canada

Strategic modification of forest vegetation has become increasingly popular as one of the few preemptive activities that land managers can undertake to reduce the likelihood that an area will be burned by a wildfire. Directed use of prescribed fire or harvest planning can lead to changes in the type and arrangement of forest vegetation across the landscape that, in turn, may reduce fire susceptibility across large areas. While among the few variables that fire managers can influence, fuel conditions are only one of many factors that determine fire susceptibility. Variations in weather and topography, in combination with fuels, determine which areas are more likely to burn under a given fire regime. An understanding of these combined factors is necessary to identify high fire susceptibility areas for prioritizing and evaluating strategic fuel management activities, as well as informing other fire management activities, such as community protection planning and strategic level allocation of fire suppression resources across a management area. We used repeated fire growth simulations, automated in the Burn-P3 landscape-fire simulation model, to assess spatial variations in fire susceptibility across a 2.4 million ha study area in the province of Alberta, Canada. The results were used to develop a Fire Susceptibility Index (FSI). Multivariate statistical analyses were used to identify the key factors that determine variation in FSI across the study area and to describe the spatial scale at which these variables influence fire susceptibility at a given location. A fuel management scenario was used to assess the impact of prescribed fire treatments on FSI. Results indicated that modeled fire susceptibility was strongly influenced by fuel composition, fuel arrangement, and topography. The likelihood of high or extreme FSI values at a given location was strongly associated with the percent of conifer forest within a 2-km radius, and with elevation and ignition patterns within a 5-km radius. Results indicated that prescribed fire treatments can be effective at reducing forest fire susceptibility in community protection zones and that simulation modeling is an effective means of evaluating spatial variation in landscape fire susceptibility.