Weapon Effectiveness Research Articles

The systematic review of variety of military, weapon, combat and warfare system-of-systems wuth their new classification and ontology depiction for further concept and design development for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

A system-of-systems is a special complex structure in which new capabilities arise from interacting independent pieces that are controlled by multiple operators. One special kind of similar structure are military, or weapon, system-of-systems. The architecture of weapon SoS consists of the constituent systems (pieces), of interfaces and IT, of communication and exchanges occurring between the systems. The architecture of the SoS is always in a state of flux, but in warfare thedemands to change the structure of weapon SoS are emphasized. To save lives and to win both in close battles and long war is the main mission of HQ, common combat forces and supporting efforts. In the article the architecture of created SoS in different countries (mainly in U. S., but also in NATO and P. R. C.) are presented – their schemes, components, purposes and key peculiarities. These features allow to get the ontology for typical variant of SoS – they all were divided into five classes. So, we suppose that SoS may by differed by their creation, or evolution, or transition, or combination, or due to attaching to non-SoS. In general, the development planning of the military or weapon SoS is a challenging strategic analysis work because it involves various aspects, such as mission tasks, capability requirements, weapon effectiveness, and economic benefits. But in demands of lifesaving in warfare the expectable replacing soldiers via an autonomous vehicle SoS are straightforward, so it is need to understand the concept and main features of SoS.

Prediction of Peak Pressure by Blast Wave Propagation Between Buildings Using a Conditional 3D Convolutional Neural Network

To predict the damage resulting from an explosion in the middle of a city, where buildings are concentrated, the peak pressure reaching the walls of the buildings or in between buildings should be accurately and rapidly calculated. However, predicting peak pressure between buildings is known to be very difficult because of the diffraction and reflection of blast waves, which have generally been analyzed by numerical analysis methods. However, numerical analysis is not suitable in a military operation environment which requires rapid analysis, because it takes considerable time and resources. This study proposes a deep neural network that quickly and accurately predicts the peak pressure caused by the propagation of blast waves, for the effective analysis of weapon effectiveness and damage in urban environments. The proposed deep learning model is based on a 3-dimensional convolutional neural network (3D CNN) model that processes the spatial information of explosion and measurement in the 3D spaces using 3D kernels. To predict the peak pressure between buildings separated by an arbitrary distance using a single model, we also propose using conditional convolution, which modulates the prediction output according to the building distance. The proposed models were trained with a dataset constructed through finite element analysis with various building distances, explosion locations, and explosive weights. The experiment with a fixed building distance showed that the relative error of the proposed 3D CNN is less than 7%, which is 2.5 times more accurate than a simple multi-layer perceptron (MLP) model. For unseen building layouts, the conditional 3D convolution showed 3.6 times lower error than the MLP model, demonstrating the effectiveness of the conditional convolution for prediction in arbitrary building layouts. Most importantly, the proposed deep learning models took less than one minute per prediction, which is significantly faster than finite element analysis, which takes 6 to 8 hours to analyze a single simulation case.

Dynamic Multiprojectile Attack and Killing Effects of Detonation Warheads

Dynamic spatial distribution and killing characteristics of warhead fragments are important topics in the field of weapon effectiveness and protection. However, there is little research on the fragment distribution formed by continuous dynamic attacks of multiple projectiles that explode above the ground. This study analyzes spatial distributions of warhead fragments using witness boards in a rectangular target test. The results show that the fragment distribution of multiple projectiles in continuous dynamic attacks demonstrates a spatial superposition characteristic. The superimposed distribution is the sum of the distributions of two independent fragment distributions. The distribution characteristics are consistent with fragment scattering behavior. Therefore, they can be used to analyze the killing effects of multiple projectiles conveniently. The effects of falling speed, falling angle, and explosion height on the damage range of fragments were explored by a fragment spatial distribution model obtained from experiments. Analysis indicates that the prefabricated fragment distribution conformed to a spatial superposition relationship under dynamic multiprojectile continuous attacks, and the superposition obeyed fragment scattering characteristics. As the projectile falling angle increased at the explosion center, or as the falling height decreased, the positive pressure duration increased gradually. The falling speed had the greatest impact on the specific impulse of overpressure. The falling angle had the greatest impact on the peak value of overpressure. Both the falling angle and the explosion height had the greatest impact on the positive pressure acting time.

A Novel Weapon System Effectiveness Assessment Method Based on the Interval-Valued Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and the Analytical Hierarchy Process

As one of the most essential parts of the military operation, the ability of weapon systems to achieve the operation mission is vital to the success of a military operation. Focusing on the problem of weapon system effectiveness assessment (WSEA) under interval uncertainty, this paper proposed WSEA method that utilized the interval-valued evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and the two-grade interval ranking method to properly deal with interval uncertainty in the assessment as well as provide reliable assessment results. Firstly, the AHP is used to determine the weight of different attributes of the weapon system based on experts’ knowledge, which could enhance the subjectiveness of the assessment result. Then, the interval-valued ER algorithm is applied to combine the assessment of different attributes under interval uncertainty and provide the overall assessment result. Finally, the two-grade interval ranking method is utilized to compare and rank the assessment results of different weapons. Case study shows that the proposed method could provide reliable and accurate results for weapon effectiveness assessment. Comparison results and sensitivity analysis results further confirm that the proposed method is not only as effective as existing methods with precise data, but also has the ability to provide reliable results under uncertainty. In conclusion, by utilizing the interval-valued ER algorithm, the AHP and the two-grade interval ranking method, the proposed method provides a novel and effective way for weapon effectiveness assessment under uncertainty, especially interval uncertainty.

Dynamic Fracture and Fragmentation Characteristics of Metal Cylinder and Rings Subjected to Internal Explosive Loading.

Dynamic fracture and fragmentation characteristics of explosively driven rings and cylinders are important issues in the field of weapon effectiveness and protection. However, the comparison of fracture characteristics between metal cylinder and rings, and the fracture characteristics of the metal shells at different axial positions, are rarely touched. In the present work, a recovery tank was used to collect fragments, and witness plates were used to investigate the fragment spatial distributions. Before the test, the representative positions of metal shells were plated with copper layers to locate the original position of the recovered fragments. After the test, scanning electron microscopy and optical microscope were used for characterizing the microstructure of the recovered fragments from different positions. Then, the recovered fragments were weighed and measured to investigate their mass and size characteristics. In addition, numerical simulation was used to further investigate the fracture mechanisms of explosively driven cylinders and rings. It was found that the projection angle axial distribution of the fragments for the metal cylinder was similar to that of the fragments for the metal rings. However, the fracture characteristics of the metal rings were significantly different from those of the metal cylinder. The adiabatic shear band played a key role in the fracture process of the metal cylinder, whereas the adiabatic shear band had little chance to initiate in the fracture process of the metal rings because the metal rings could deform uniformly with much fewer strain localizations due to their much lower length. The fracture surfaces of the fragments from different positions of the metal cylinder were very smooth, whereas dimples were found in the fracture surfaces of the fragments from different positions of the metal rings. The mass distribution of the fragments from the metal rings was more uniform than that of the fragments from the metal cylinder, and the circumferential rupture strains of the metal rings were much larger than those of the metal cylinder.

Weapon–Target Assignment Algorithm for Simultaneous and Sequenced Arrival

Weapon–target assignment is a multi-agent control problem in which each weapon is assigned to a target to minimize the expected survival value of the targets. In this work, a multi-objective version of the weapon–target assignment problem is considered in which the quality of an assignment is dependent on both the total effectiveness of the weapons assigned to each target and the relative timing of agents’ arrival. Such timing constraints may be important in real-world scenarios in which a mission planner wishes to enforce an element of surprise on each target. Building on previous work, a new modified cost function is presented that couples weapon effectiveness and timing metrics into a combined cost. In cases where weapon–target closing speeds are limited to a certain range, this combined cost allows the inclusion of arrival time constraints in the assignment decision process. The performance of this new cost function is demonstrated through theoretical analysis and simulation. Results show that the proposed cost function balances the dual goals of optimizing effectiveness and arrival time considerations under closing speed limitations and that a user-defined tuning parameter can be used to adjust the priority of the dual goals of sequenced arrival and achieving the desired probability of kill.

칼튼 손상함수를 이용한 주요장비의 취약 면적 산정과 함정 취약성 평가 방법

This paper deals with the calculation of vulnerable areas of critical components required for the assessment of naval ship’s vulnerability. Taking into account the effectiveness of threatening weapons, the probability density function of damage was used to assess vulnerable areas or vulnerabilities of critical components. It is shown that the vulnerable area of critical component can be simply computed from the damage function. Considering the weapon effectiveness of fragmentation and explosion on the target, both Carleton Damage Function and Rectangular Cookie Cutter Function representing the probability of damage are applied to the vulnerable area assessment. Carleton damage function is utilized to describe the weapon-target interaction in the vulnerability analyses. A problem of blast effect against an assumed naval ship is chosen as a case study. Vulnerability is evaluated by applying the suggested method to the equipments arranged in the engine room of the virtual ship.

Local feature based automatic target recognition for future 3D active homing seeker missiles

We propose an architecture appropriate for future Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) active homing seeker missiles with Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) capabilities. Our proposal enhances military targeting performance by extending ATR into the 3rd dimension. From a military and aerospace industry point of view, this is appealing as weapon effectiveness against camouflage, concealment and deception techniques can be substantially improved.Specifically, we present a missile seeker 3D ATR architecture that relies on the 3D local feature based SHOT descriptor and a dual-role pipeline with a number of pre and post-processing operations. We evaluate our architecture on a number of missile engagement scenarios in various environmental setups with the missile being under various altitudes, obliquities, distances to the target and scene resolutions. Under these demanding conditions, the recognition performance gained is highly promising. Even in the extreme case of reducing the database entries to a single template per target, our interchangeable ATR architecture still provides a highly acceptable performance.Although we focus on future intelligent missile systems, our approach can be implemented to a great range of time-critical complex systems for space, air and ground environments for military, law-enforcement, commercial and research purposes.

Mass removal by oxidation and sublimation of porous graphite during fiber laser irradiation

The various effects of laser heating of carbon materials are key to assessing laser weapon effectiveness. Porous graphite plates, cylinders, and cones with densities of 1.55 to 1.82 g/cm3 were irradiated by a 10-kW fiber laser at 0.075 to 3.525 kW/cm2 for 120 s to study mass removal and crater formation. Surface temperatures reached steady state values as high as 3767 K. The total decrease in sample mass ranged from 0.06 to 6.29 g, with crater volumes of 0.52 to 838 mm3, and penetration times for 12.7-mm-thick plates as short as 38 s. Minor contaminants in the graphite samples produced calcium and iron oxide to be redeposited on the graphite surface. Dramatic graphite crystalline structures are also produced at higher laser irradiances. Significantly increased porosity of the sample is observed even outside the laser-irradiated region. Total mass removed increases with deposited laser energy at a rate of 4.83 g/MJ for medium extruded graphite with an apparent threshold of 0.15 MJ. At ∼3.5 kW/cm2, the fractions of the mass removed from the cylindrical samples in the crater, surrounding trench, and outer region of decreased porosity are 38%, 47%, and 15%, respectively. Graphite is particularly resistant to damage by high power lasers. The new understanding of graphite combustion and sublimation during laser irradiation is vital to the more complex behavior of carbon composites.

David M. Blades and Joseph M. Siracusa. A History of U.S. Nuclear Testing and Its Influence on Nuclear Thought, 1945–1963.

America's wartime development of the atomic bomb and its subsequent use against Japan ended the Second World War and introduced a new class of weaponry to America's arsenal. In addition to the data collected from the military use of atomic weapons, further testing was demanded to explore their military capabilities, as well as to improve weapon effectiveness and design. In 1946, the United States launched its first postwar atomic test program and began 17 years of peacetime atmospheric nuclear testing, which ended in 1963 with the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT), signed weeks before John F. Kennedy's assassination. David M. Blades and Joseph M. Siracusa's recent work, A History of U.S. Nuclear Testing and Its Influence on Nuclear Thought, 1945–1963, analyzes the period of atmospheric nuclear testing, which began with the wartime Trinity test in 1945, and the policies of the three presidential administrations that ordered their conduct. In six short chapters, the authors alternate between the nuclear test series conducted by the Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy administrations and explanation of the political and scientific rationales behind them. The result is a heavily notated work that is still quite accessible.

Framework of Weapon Effectiveness Tool for Hardened Targets

Framework of Weapon Effectiveness Tool for Hardened Targets

Operational research in weapon system

paper is divided into three parts: (a) The first part deals with what operational research is. (b)The second part gives what we mean by Weapon Systems and discusses considerations that determine the choice of a particular weapon system from a class weapon systems. (c)The third part deals with some aspects of weapon replacement policy.The effectiveness of a weapon system is defined as E=D/C where E is weapon effectiveness (a comparative figure of merit); D is total damage inflicted or prevented and C is total cost, D and C being reduced to common dimensions. During the course of investigations, criteria regarding to choice of weapon or weapons from a set of weapon systems are established through production function and military effect curves. A procedure is described which maximizes the expectation of military utility in order to select a weapon system from the class of weapon systems. This is done under the following simplifying assumptions: (a) Non- decreasing utility function; (b) Constant average cost for each kind of weapons; and (c) Independence of the performance of each unit of weapon. Some of the difficulties which arises when any of these restrictions is relaxed are briefly mentioned. Finally, the policy of weapon replacement and the factors governing the same are described.

INVESTIGATION OF THE DISPERSION OF UNGUIDED FINNED MISSILE

ABSTRACTThe problem of accuracy of fire and its impact on weapon effectiveness presents amajor concern of munitions designer. Many factors can be considered to improve themissile dispersion. Some are related to the missile itself, others are related to thelauncher or the mutual effects between the missile and the launcher. Theenvironmental launching conditions have a prime impact on the firing accuracy. Thepresent work introduces simulation and experimental studies dealing with individualparameters and their influential weights concerning their impact on dispersion of afinned missile. The effects of the initial firing parameters, namely initial mass, initiallaunching angle, initial velocity and location of center of gravity are investigated. Foreach case the parameter was varied within certain limits to simulate the productioninaccuracy, or approximations during design and the initial errors that can beimpeded in the launcher and aiming devices. The trajectory was calculated usingPRODAS software and compared with the real flight data. Comparisons of predictedand experimental results have proven satisfactory matching.

Monte Carlo Simulations of Weapon Effectiveness Using Pk Matrix and Carleton Damage Function

 Abstract—Carleton damage function has been commonly utilized to describe the weapon-target interaction in the weapon effectiveness analyses. This function is simplified from the actual weapon lethality data and these simplifications can affect the analysis results. This paper investigates the difference between results of Monte Carlo simulations to determine the probability of target damage that utilize the Carleton damage function and the results of the same simulations that utilize a non-simplified probability of kill (Pk) matrix. A problem of multiple shots of an unguided artillery weapon against an area target was chosen as a case study. Two sets of Monte Carlo simulations to determine the probability of damage on a target were performed for several numbers of shots and target sizes. The first set of simulations utilized the Pk matrix while the second set utilized the Carleton damage function. Statistical analyses were performed. It was suggested that there was difference between the results of two sets of simulations but the effect size was small.

A numerical investigation on explosive fragmentation of metal casing using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic method

Explosively driven fragmentation of ductile metals is a highly complex phenomenon. It is an important issue in a variety of circumstances like structure protection, weapon effectiveness and safety distance. Simulations of the fragmentation of metal casing are characterized by a number of interesting and challenging behaviors. These include the volume expansion of the solid charge and its transformation into highly pressurized products. This rapid pressurization of the metal case leads to large deformations at high strain rates and eventual casing rupture. Once the metal casing breaks apart, the highly pressurized product escapes from the gap of the failing casing and generates a shock wave. In addition, the fragments from the metal casing scatter with high velocities in set directions. In the conditions of near field explosion, the spatial distribution of fragments with powerful penetrability has considerable influence on the failure pattern of the target. In the present study, the finite difference engineering package AUTODYN combined with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is used to investigate numerically the fragmentation process of a cylindrical metal casing with ends. After applying the numerical method to predict the propagation of detonation wave, the expansion and rupture process, the expansion velocity of metal casing, the leakage of detonation products and the fragment distribution, the fragment mass distribution is validated by comparing the numerical results with experimental data in the literature. Additionally, an experiment was conducted with the same explosive fragmentation geometry as modeled. The characteristics of the observed fragment distributions and fragment velocities are compared with the numerical simulation. The results reveal that the path of detonation wave is directly related to the expansion velocity of the casing. The fragment sizes depend on the axial position on the casing when the charge is detonated at endpoint, and they are related to the relative axial strain rate. The relatively low axial strain rate, especially in the central and further region of the detonating cylindrical casing, is probably the quantity responsible for the larger fragments. The end far away from the initiation point produces more massive fragments with maximum kinetic energy. It has been demonstrated that the numerical method presented here is capable of simulating the explosive fragmentation of a metal casing with ends.

상부공격 지능탄 무기효과 평가모델

We have developed a weapon effectiveness evaluation model for top-attack smart munitions(WEEM/TASM), which is a many on many Monte Carlo Model evaluating the effectiveness of top-attack smart munitions against armoured ground vehicles. In this model the battle is reduced to a one-sided battle situation in that the target vehicles are regarded as being stationary and passive. It can simulate the whole attack process of smart munitions from firing artillery dispenser to sensing and hitting processes after dispense. It can also calculate the probability of kill of each target and the numbers of rounds required to fulfill the degree of damage in statistical manners. In this paper, we describe the basis for our design concepts reflected in the model to simulate the weapon effectiveness of top-attack smart munitions and provide simulation results for an example case.

Fragment mass distribution of metal cased explosive charges

Abstract Fragmentation of metal casings is an important issue in a variety of problems like weapon effectiveness, safety distances or collateral damage. To be able to describe the intended or unintended effects of naturally fragmenting shells, one needs to know the mass distribution of the fragments produced after detonation of the explosive charge. In the present study the fragmentation behavior of very light and heavier casings has been investigated. The data collection method is outlined and applied to the fragment mass distribution of four different shells. The results are given in diagrams. It was found that an existing fragmentation model adequately predicts the dependence of circumferential fragment size on material strength. Fracture in axial direction should also be considered to predict correct fragment masses, but currently a suitable model for this purpose is not available.

Nuclear Proliferation and the Geocultural Divide: The March of Folly1

When US President Harry Truman dispatched the Enola Gay from the Pacific island of Eniwetok on August 6, 1945 with “Little Boy” in its bomb bay, little did he and his advisors realize that it was far from the opening shot in what came to be known as the “North–South” divide: the cleavage between the geographically “North” or culturally Western and those who exist outside that sphere. Their energies were focused on the more immediate challenge of bringing World War II to a rapid and victorious conclusion. Not that the decision to target Hiroshima with the first available—and barely tested—atomic bomb was a simple and obvious one. Aside from the uncertainty of the weapon's reliability and effectiveness, there was the internal debate as to whether its use was militarily necessary. The allied consensus was that Japan was far from defeated and that a long and bloody campaign would be needed to take the Pacific islands surrounding Honshu before the final assault. Equally salient to many of the principals was, of course, the desirability of an atomic “message to Moscow.” The prospect of an accelerated Soviet-American rivalry was never far below the surface during the war and there were those who relished a monopoly of quite a few years to develop and put into place the strategies for addressing the Russian challenge. In any event, the momentum of battle and the investment in the Manhattan Project were more than sufficient to carry the day. In terms of our discussion here, one of the arguments against the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was all too prescient: would this be seen as a racially motivated decision? Although the Allies by no means went easier on the Germans than the Japanese—casualties from the attacks on Cologne, Dresden, and other cities were comparable to the …

Optimal Control of Sensor Threshold for Autonomous Wide- Area-Search Munitions

The optimal employment of autonomous wide area search munitions is addressed. The scenario considered involves an airborne munition searching a battle space for stationary targets in the presence of false targets. Targets are modelled with uniform, Poisson, and normal distributions. False targets are modelled with Poisson distributions. All relevant parameters can be extracted from intelligence information on the enemy’s order of battle and the sensor performance specification. Analytic weapon effectiveness measures are derived using applied probability theory. The effectiveness measures derived in this paper handle time-varying parameters which characterize the battle space environment and the performance of the munition’s sensor. This allows the formulation and solution of optimization problems that maximize the probability of a target attack while at the same time constraining the probability of a false target attack. Optimal schedules for controlling the sensor threshold during the flight are derived and compared to the optimal constant-threshold results. An increase in weapon effectiveness is demonstrated when the sensor threshold is dynamically controlled during the flight.

Semi-dynamic modelling of heterogeneous land combat

We propose a semi-dynamic approach to tactical level land combat modelling from the attacker's viewpoint. Our approach decomposes a battle between heterogeneous forces into stages and mini battles. For each mini battle in a stage, we use three models: a mathematical programming model for optimizing force allocations, a Lanchester simulation model for predicting whether or not the stage targets are reached under the allocations, and a model for weapon effectiveness update from one stage to the next. These models interact with each other within the framework of a decision support system to help the user with allocation decisions as well as prediction of force requirements to win the battle.