A Novel Weapon System Effectiveness Assessment Method Based on the Interval-Valued Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and the Analytical Hierarchy Process

Abstract

As one of the most essential parts of the military operation, the ability of weapon systems to achieve the operation mission is vital to the success of a military operation. Focusing on the problem of weapon system effectiveness assessment (WSEA) under interval uncertainty, this paper proposed WSEA method that utilized the interval-valued evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and the two-grade interval ranking method to properly deal with interval uncertainty in the assessment as well as provide reliable assessment results. Firstly, the AHP is used to determine the weight of different attributes of the weapon system based on experts’ knowledge, which could enhance the subjectiveness of the assessment result. Then, the interval-valued ER algorithm is applied to combine the assessment of different attributes under interval uncertainty and provide the overall assessment result. Finally, the two-grade interval ranking method is utilized to compare and rank the assessment results of different weapons. Case study shows that the proposed method could provide reliable and accurate results for weapon effectiveness assessment. Comparison results and sensitivity analysis results further confirm that the proposed method is not only as effective as existing methods with precise data, but also has the ability to provide reliable results under uncertainty. In conclusion, by utilizing the interval-valued ER algorithm, the AHP and the two-grade interval ranking method, the proposed method provides a novel and effective way for weapon effectiveness assessment under uncertainty, especially interval uncertainty.