The wave surface effect will be a major constraint when a wireless optical communication system is applied in an air water interface environment. In this paper, a downlink optical model based on Monte Carlo numerical method is developed and simulated to explore the characteristics of the effect. And then, the comprehensive influence of wave surface, link distance, water turbidity and receiver parameters on the communication link power is evaluated. The results show that the wind-induced power loss is more significant at low turbidity but a higher turbidity or a longer transmission depth can help to eliminate the fluctuation effect. Particularly in coastal waters, when the underwater distance exceeds 35 m, the power curves estimated by different wind speeds are consistent. Furthermore, an air–water optical communication link experiment is also installed in a water-tank to verify the simulation conclusions. It is demonstrated that whether in tap water or artificial turbid water, the experiment data show relative consistency with the emulation, and the model established in this paper is feasible and reasonable and which can be used to describe and analyze the wireless optical communication system on a wavy air–water interface.