Water Use Scenarios Research Articles

Study on the Appropriate Degree of Water-Saving Measures in Arid Irrigated Areas Considering Groundwater Level

Irrigated areas are major vectors of agricultural development and components of ecosystems. The groundwater level maintains the irrigated areas’ ecology safety and sustainable development. Under the influence of irrational irrigation practices—such as flood irrigation or extreme water saving without consideration of ecological impact—different areas within an irrigation district may experience anomalies in groundwater levels (either too deep or too shallow). It is of great significance to carry out research on water resource allocation and future water-saving strategies, taking into consideration groundwater depths. In this study, a method for the optimal allocation of irrigation water resources that considered groundwater level was used to regulate irrational irrigation practices and to reveal the future direction of water saving. Helan County in Ningxia province, an ecologically fragile and arid irrigated area, was selected as a case study. Multiple scenarios of different water use and different degrees of water-saving were analyzed. The results showed that non-engineering water-saving measures (such as adjusting the planting structure and controlling the amount of irrigation for rice) had better benefits compared to engineering measures (such as efficient water-saving irrigation and channel lining). When implementing only one water-saving measure, the strategy of replacing 75% of the rice area with corn yielded the best results. This approach can reduce the irrigation water shortage rate to 11% and increase by 4.58% the acreage where the groundwater level is reasonable. When multiple water-saving measures are implemented together, the most effective strategy for future water-saving efforts involves the joint implementation of several measures: replacing 75% of the rice area with corn, limiting irrigation for rice to no more than 11.85 thousand m3/ha, adopting high-efficiency water-saving irrigation in 90% of the pump-diverted water irrigation region and 40% of the channel-diverted water irrigation region, and maintaining the channel’s water utilization coefficient at 0.62. This strategy can keep the irrigation water shortage below 3.66% and increase the acreage where the groundwater level is reasonable, by 4.58% per year. The conclusions and research approaches can provide references for the formulation of water-saving measures for irrigated areas’ sustainable development.

Divergent responses of native and invasive macroalgae to submarine groundwater discharge

Marine macroalgae are important indicators of healthy nearshore groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs), which are emergent global conservation priorities. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) supports abundant native algal communities in GDEs via elevated but naturally derived nutrients. GDEs are threatened by anthropogenic nutrient inputs that pollute SGD above ambient levels, favoring invasive algae. Accordingly, this case study draws on the GDE conditions of Kona, Hawai‘i where we evaluated daily photosynthetic production and growth for two macroalgae; a culturally valued native (Ulva lactuca) and an invasive (Hypnea musciformis). Manipulative experiments—devised to address future land-use, climate change, and water-use scenarios for Kona—tested algal responses under a natural range of SGD nutrient and salinity levels. Our analyses demonstrate that photosynthesis and growth in U. lactuca are optimal in low-salinity, high-nutrient waters, whereas productivity for H. musciformis appears limited to higher salinities despite elevated nutrient subsidies. These findings suggest that reductions in SGD via climate change decreases in rainfall or increased water-use from the aquifer may relax physiological constraints on H. musciformis. Collectively, this study reveals divergent physiologies of a native and an invasive macroalga to SGD and highlights the importance of maintaining SGD quantity and quality to protect nearshore GDEs.

Mechanism of Water Use Behavior of College Students Based on the Improved TPB Model

Colleges and universities are a typical service water consumers in China, i.e., with a dense population, single structure, and regular water use. This means it is crucial to strengthen the management of their water use behavior. In this paper, first of all, the main water devices and water use behavior of students were elucidated by investigating and analyzing the structure and scenarios of water use in colleges and universities. Then, a model of water use behavior of college students with sociodemographic and environmental characteristics was constructed based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB). By investigating and analyzing the water use behavior, the theoretical judgment of the improved TPB model that “behavior is the result of interaction between individual and environmental characteristics” was proved, which provides a reference for studying the water demand requirements of college students and supports scientific water-use management in colleges, our results also help the exploration of potential water-saving solutions in order to construct water-conservative colleges and universities.

Protecting environmental flows to achieve long-term water security

In this work, we propose a new approach to diagnose if a water allocation scheme is compatible with long-term water security at the catchment scale, and suggest steps to achieve such compatibility. We argue that when the remaining flow of a river after upstream withdrawals is not sufficient to safeguarding ecological river functions, the basin is at extreme risk of water scarcity, which indicates that the water management is failing. To test this, we analysed the water scarcity risks and the safeguarded environmental flows (e-flows) in 277 basins across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions in Chile (17–55°S). For each basin, water scarcity risks were assessed based on water stress indices (WSIs, computed as the ratio of withdrawals to water availability), considering two water-use scenarios: (i) WSImax, where total withdrawals correspond to the maximum consumptive water allowed by the law, i.e., where only the e-flows protected by law remain in the river, and (ii) WSIalloc, where total withdrawals correspond to the actual allocated consumptive water uses within the basins. Further, we evaluated the adequacy of the water management system to protect ecological river functions by contrasting the e-flows protected in Chile with those safeguarded in six other countries.The water allocation system in Chile incorporated the protection of minimum e-flows in 2005 and established that these do not exceed 20% of the mean annual streamflow, except in some exceptional cases. This upper limit is consistently lower than the e-flows safeguarded in other countries, where 20%–80% of the mean annual streamflow are protected. This turns out in WSImax values between 80% and 100% in all basins, well above the threshold associated with over-committed basins under extreme risk of water scarcity (70% typically). When moving from the legally allowed to the actually allocated water use scenario, we found contrasting results: about 70% of the basins show low water scarcity risk (WSIalloc <40%), while an 18% have WSIalloc above 100%, indicating the allocation is going beyond current law limits and even beyond physical limits.Our results reveal that the link between e-flows, water allocation and water security has not been adequately incorporated in the current law. E-flows stipulated by law are insufficient to fulfil environmental requirements, while placing the basins under extreme risk of water scarcity if the total allowed withdrawals were exerted. To move towards a system that can effectively achieve long-term water security, we recommend: (i) To define tolerable water scarcity risks for basins, considering environmental requirements. (ii) To translate those risks into measurable basin indices to measure water security, such as the WSI. (iii) To set maximum water use limits (or minimum e-flows) within the basins that are compatible to the water security goals. If, under current and projected water availability conditions, the existing withdrawals exceed these limits, water managers should be able to adapt total consumption to the required limits.

УЧЕТ ВОДОПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ ИЛИ ВОДОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ – ГДЕ ПУТЬ К ВОДОСБЕРЕЖЕНИЮ?

Water-saving forms a base for reallocation of water resources and more balanced integrated development of economic sectors of Central Asian countries. Implementation of water-saving programs can highly contribute to objectives laid down in the Strategic Scheme of Integrated Use and Protection of Water Resources of the Republic of Kazakhstan. All three scenarios of water and land use studied in the scheme relay on water-saving, however an approach of water-saving is not clarified. This study discusses benefits and shortages of potential approaches to achieve water-saving at a basin scale using lessons from countries implemented basin scale water-saving projects. Three water use accounting methods discussed are as follows: (a) accounting efficiency; (б) accounting water use; (с) accounting water consumption. It is argued that the strategic scheme has to relay on real water-savings to meet growing water demand of different sectors of the economy.

Co-development of East African regional water scenarios for 2050

Summary The development of and access to freshwater resources in East Africa is fundamental to the region's sustainable development goals. Following vision documents for regional development and working with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modeling analysis of the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Water scenarios that take an integrated approach to assessing the combined effects of climate change, land use, and increasing human water use suggest that the flow regime of the Nile may remain relatively stable. However, if this stability is to be achieved, while at the same time sufficient water is preserved for healthy freshwater ecosystems, a large fraction of water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly technologies and management. Interconnected analyses of both upstream and downstream water resources over time, guided by co-developed scenarios, are indispensable for planning sustainable water-development pathways.

System dynamics applied to water management in lakes*

AbstractWater withdrawal and changes in hydrologic fluxes have lowered the level of Urmia Lake in Iran, adversely impacting its ecosystem. The continued lowering of the Urmia Lake water level would put Iran's most important aquatic ecosystem in danger of extinction. Therefore, there is an urgent need for management of water withdrawals and for reduction of water use in upstream dams and rivers to halt its continuing decline and allow storage recovery. The Urmia Lake basin was herein modelled with system dynamics (SD) to assess the effects of modifying reservoir operation and water use management on the sustainability of Urmia Lake storage. The model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2). The results show that SD with RMSE = 18.0 (106 m3) and R2 = 0.952 is accurate in simulating Urmia Lake storage. Evaluation of the impacts of several scenarios of agricultural water use on lake storage indicates that reductions in the agricultural sector appear inevitable to restore the water balance of Urmia Lake. © 2020 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Diffuse Pollution of Water Bodies and Estimation of Export of Biogenic Elements under Different Scenarios of Water Use in the Watershed

The notion of diffuse pollution process in water bodies of different dimensions is formulated. An algorithm is given for calculating the average annual volume of the export of major biogenic elements—nitrogen and phosphorus—from the watershed into ravine and river network of a small river. The article also gives the results of a series of computer simulations of the characteristics of spring overland runoff, soil erosion, and the export of biogenic elements from the watershed into the river network of the Istra R. under hypothetic changes in its landscape structure under the effect of urbanization and reforestation activities.

Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) have been widely used to simulate current and future climate at the global scale. However, the development of frameworks to apply GCMs to assess potential climate change impacts on regional hydrologic systems, ability to meet future water demand, and compliance with water resource regulations is more recent. In this study eight GCMs were bias-corrected and downscaled using the bias correction and stochastic analog (BCSA) downscaling method and then used, together with three ET0 methods and eight different water use scenarios, to drive an integrated hydrologic model previously developed for the Tampa Bay region in western central Florida. Variance-based sensitivity analysis showed that changes in projected streamflow were very sensitive to GCM selection, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method or water use scenario. Changes in projections of groundwater level were sensitive to both GCM and water use scenario, but relatively insensitive to ET0 method. Five of eight GCMs projected a decrease in streamflow and groundwater availability in the future regardless of water use scenario or ET method. For the business as usual water use scenario all eight GCMs indicated that, even with active water conservation programs, increases in public water demand projected for 2045 could not be met from ground and surface water supplies while achieving current groundwater level and surface water flow regulations. With adoption of 40 % wastewater reuse for public supply and active conservation four of the eight GCMs indicate that 2045 public water demand could be met while achieving current environmental regulations; however, drier climates would require a switch from groundwater to surface water use. These results indicate a high probability of a reduction in future freshwater supply in the Tampa Bay region if environmental regulations intended to protect current aquatic ecosystems do not adapt to the changing climate. Broad interpretation of the results of this study may be limited by the fact that all future water use scenarios assumed that increases in water demand would be the result of intensification of water use on existing agricultural, industrial, and urban lands. Future work should evaluate the impacts of a range of potential land use change scenarios, with associated water use change projections, over a larger number of GCMs.

Identifying optimal water and nitrogen inputs for high efficiency and low environment impacts of a greenhouse summer cucumber with a model method

High-input of water and nitrogen (N) fertilizers in intensive greenhouse vegetable production regions in China has successfully increased crop productivity in the past decades, but at a significant environmental cost and resource consumption. It is essential to choose best management practice (BMP) to meet multiple goals, such as keeping greenhouse vegetable yield stable, improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), and reducing the nitrogen pollution issue. However, the bottleneck is the capacity of predicting the simultaneous effects of different management practice scenarios on multiple goals and choosing BMP among scenarios. The object of this study was to identify BMP of water and N fertilizer for greenhouse summer cucumber in North China Plain using calibrated and validated EU-Rotate_N model. The data used to calibrate and validate the model were collected from a typical greenhouse summer cucumber field with four different water and N fertilizer treatments within the target domain region. A total of 240 varied scenarios of water use and fertilizer application were set up and then simulated by the model. An osculating value method was used to evaluate combinations of irrigation and fertilizer practices. Agronomic indices (yield, WUE and NUE), environmental indices (nitrate leaching and gaseous N loss), and economic index (value to cost ratio) were selected as the evaluation indices to identify the BMP. The results showed that cucumber yield increased to maximum value as water input reached to about 277 mm, then kept constant or even decreased under lower N fertilizer rates. Nitrogen started to lose as nitrate leaching when irrigation increased to 300–400 mm, and then nitrate leaching increased with irrigation increasing. The effects of water input on gaseous nitrogen loss were not significant. Regardless of N fertilizer rates, irrigating about 300 mm water can obtain the maximum NUE. Cucumber yield increased to maximum values as N fertilizer input reached to about 313 and 310 kg N ha−1 for furrow and drip irrigation, then was not affected by N fertilizer increase. The BMPs under furrow irrigation condition were to irrigate 300 mm with 300 kg N ha-1 and 250 mm with 300 kg N ha-1 under drip irrigation condition for greenhouse cucumber in the study area, respectively. Adopting the current BMPs, the applied nitrogen and irrigation water were at about 55 and 40% lower rates, respectively, than the current conventional use. Our study indicated that the EU-Rotate_N model combined with Osculating value method can be helpful to assess multi-goal effects of management alternatives and identify BMP.

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed.

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.

Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability

Meeting the growing demand for food in the future will require adaptation of water and land management to future conditions. We studied the extent of different adaptation options to future global change in the Mediterranean region, under scenarios of water use and availability. We focused on the most significant adaptation options for semiarid regions: implementing irrigation, changes to cropland intensity, and diversification of cropland activities. We used Conversion of Land Use on Mondial Scale (CLUMondo), a global land system model, to simulate future change to land use and land cover, and land management. To take into account future global change, we followed global outlooks for future population and climate change, and crop and livestock demand. The results indicate that the level of irrigation efficiency improvement is an important determinant of potential changes in the intensity of rain-fed land systems. No or low irrigation efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in irrigated areas, accompanied with intensification and expansion of rain-fed cropping systems. When reducing water withdrawal, total crop production in intensive rain-fed systems would need to increase significantly: by 130% without improving the irrigation efficiency in irrigated systems and by 53% under conditions of the highest possible efficiency improvement. In all scenarios, traditional Mediterranean multifunctional land systems continue to play a significant role in food production, especially in hosting livestock. Our results indicate that significant improvements to irrigation efficiency with simultaneous increase in cropland productivity are needed to satisfy future demands for food in the region. The approach can be transferred to other similar regions with strong resource limitations in terms of land and water.

Possible pathways and tensions in the food and water nexus

Abstract“Bottom‐up” field‐based, crop‐hydrological models are used to estimate food production and irrigation water extractions under multiple scenarios of water and nitrogen use and crop yield increases from 2010 to 2050 for 19 countries. The results show: (1) a food deficit before 2050 under a worst case climate change scenario in terms of annual crop yield improvement; (2) substantial water deficits, as a result of irrigation, for major food‐producing countries that will prevent these nations from meeting their domestic food requirements in the absence of investments in water infrastructure or food imports; and (3) a plateau in terms of crop food production associated with increased water extractions given no further increase in the current area of irrigated agriculture. Possible pathways to respond to the tensions in the food–water nexus are evaluated and include: (1) higher water productivity; (2) food trade; (3) improvements in both crop yield and “sustainable” total factor productivity; (4) greater investment in water infrastructure; and (5) integrative policies and decision processes. Without a combination of some, or all, of these possible pathways, appropriately adapted to bio‐physical and socio‐economic circumstances, the world faces grave risks in food and water security out to 2050.

Building Regional Water-Use Scenarios Consistent with Global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Water use projections are crucial to safeguard sustainable access to freshwater in the future. The Water Futures and Solution initiative (WFaS) has developed a set of global water-use scenarios consistent with the recent Assessment Report framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, notably the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and applying a hydro-economic classification that links a socioeconomic dimension with hydrologic complexity. Here we present regional water use projections for the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China consistent with the WFaS global assessment. Using two different downscaling techniques for developing regional water-use scenarios based on the national assumptions made for China in the WFaS assessment, we investigate PRD’s water-use projections. The findings indicate significant differences in the PRD’s regional development trends compared to China’s national SSP. The regionalized scenarios project lower water use because of the PRD’s lower share of the manufacturing sector in total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and higher rates of technological improvement, compared to national development trend assumptions. Nevertheless, hydrological challenges remain for the PRD. Its total water use would still increase by up to 54% in 2030 under the regionalized scenarios. Although uncertainties related to scarce data remain, we provide a scientifically sound and feasible method to generate regional scenarios that can capture the regional sectorial water uses development as well as being consistent with national water-use scenarios developed by global assessment.

Modeling the impacts of water and fertilizer management on the ecosystem service of rice rotated cropping systems in China

Detailed information on the impacts of water use and nutrient application on agro-ecosystem services including crop yields, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen (N) loss is the key to guide field managements. In this study, we use the DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate the biogeochemical processes for rice rotated cropping systems in China. We set varied scenarios of water use in more than 1600 counties, and derived optimal rates of N application for each county in accordance to water use scenarios. Our results suggest that 0.88±0.33Tg per year (mean±standard deviation) of synthetic N could be reduced without reducing rice yields, which accounts for 15.7±5.9% of the N application in China in 2005. Field managements with shallow flooding and optimal N applications could enhance ecosystem services at a national scale, leading to 34.3% reduction of GHG emissions (CH4, N2O, and CO2), 2.8% reduction of overall N loss (NH3 volatilization, denitrification and N leaching) and 1.7% increase of rice yields, as compared to current management conditions. Among provinces with major rice production, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hubei could achieve more than 40% reduction of GHG emissions under appropriate water managements, while Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian could reduce more than 30% N loss with optimal N applications. Our modeling efforts suggest that China is likely to benefit from reforming water and fertilization managements for rice rotated cropping systems in terms of sustainable crop yields, GHG emission mitigation and N loss reduction, and the reformation should be prioritized in the above-mentioned provinces.

Simulation Of Surface runoff For Upper Tapi Subcatchment Area (Burhanpur Watershed) Using SWAT

Abstract. Water related activity that takes place in one part of a river basin may have consequence in the other part. Any plan related to inter basin transfer of water from a water surplus basin to a deficit basin has to take into account the water availability and demands under the present and future scenarios of water use. Watershed is a hydrologic unit where all stream exit from the common outlet. In the present study, Tapi subcatchment area (Burhanpur watershed) located in inter-state basin of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, India, is selected for the estimation of surface runoff using SWAT model. The SWAT works in conjunction with Arc GIS 9.3. Various parameters Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope derived from DEM, Landuse/Landcover (LULC) and NBSSLUP soil data and temporal data for temperature and precipitation was used as input for the model to predict runoff at the catchment outlet. The model was run from the year 1992 to 1997. The performance of the model in terms of simulated runoff was evaluated using statistical method and compared simulated monthly flow with the observed monthly flow values from 1992 to 1996 to a significant extent. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the monthly runoff values for 1992 to 1996 was observed to be 0.82, 0.68, 0.92, 0.69.

The Mexican Environmental Flow Standard: Scope, Application and Implementation

With the implementation of the Official Mexican Standard NOM-011-CONAGUA-2000 [1], the water balance of 730 basins has been calculated and its water availability agreement is published. This rule points out to allocate water for the environment only as an annual volume since methods for estimating environmental flows were not standardized in the country. For this reason, The Water Agency (CONAGUA) issued the standard NMX-AA-159-SCFI-2012 [2], to assess environmental flows needed both, at the strategic level in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), or as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of large hydraulic projects. For over ten years, this standard was developed and finally published in September 2012 [3]. It explains different methods from hydrological to holistic approaches, with examples for the country. Its application will cover the urgent need to preserve water for ecosystems in watersheds with high ecological importance and low stress for water use. In this paper, an analysis of the environmental flow standard and examples of the suggested hydrological methods are presented. For its implementation, some steps are taking place, mainly establishing environmental water reserves and building capacities. In addition, environmental allocations are becoming a common practice for all water projects, as well as setting limits to hydrological alterations by hydroelectric dams. The standard promotes the use of technical integration tools to analyze the responses of ecosystems to changes in the flow regime and adaptive management under different scenarios of water use. Although the main steps have been taken, its implementation as mandatory rule will take time.

Learning About Water Management through the African Catchment Game

The African Catchment Game (ACG) is an innovative role-playing game for Geography educators that simulates a “real imaginary country”. It enables the participants to explore how rural and urban stakeholders in southern African countries may, or may not, develop scenarios of sustainable wateruse. The ACG has been developed from Graham Chapman’s the Green Revolution Game/Exaction of the 1970s and 1980s. Our modifications to Chapman’s game are under-pinned by theories of Complex Adaptive Systems and educational approaches based on constructivist, active/experiential learningmodels. This paper examines the impact of two game runs through examining the experiences of the participants and managers of the game and analyzing empirical data collected during each game run. The African Catchment Game was played twice in Finland in 2008 as part of a collaboration intended to explore the possibilities of simulations being used as tools for predicting African futures.Our analysis shows that the participants’ understanding altered and deepened as a result of playing the game. The nature of the game, as a Complex Adaptive System, and the use of a constructivist learning approach, means that the particular learning that took place cannot be extrapolated to more universalcontexts, but the value of the learning process can be more generally applied.

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Abstract. The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2) adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1) characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2) identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3) identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4) production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes). The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16%) in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%). All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Current state of Mediterranean water resources and future trends under climatic and anthropogenic changes

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's regions most vulnerable to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the impacts of these changes on water resources. Based on global climate projections and water-use scenarios inspired by national reports, the current water stress state is addressed first and then it is explored for the medium-term. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, this stress could increase over the whole Mediterranean basin, notably because of a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources as a result of climate change. In addition, under a business-as-usual water-use scenario, total water withdrawals are projected to double on the southern and eastern rims. These worrying trends indicate the need to develop mitigation scenarios. In accord with the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development, an alternative water-use scenario based on improvements in the efficiency of water distribution networks and of irrigated agriculture is investigated. Such progress would stabilize total water withdrawals over the Mediterranean basin and even make them decrease (10–40%) in many northern catchments. Water stress could thus be tempered in some eastern catchments and remain low on the northern rim. This study highlights the importance of developing sustainable development strategies to cope with climatic and anthropogenic changes in order to explore their impacts at regional scales. It supports the need to focus on the most vulnerable areas within the Mediterranean basin. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Milano, M., Ruelland, D., Fernandez, S., Dezetter, A., Fabre, J., Servat, E., Fritsch, J.-M., Ardoin-Bardin, S., and Thivet, G., 2013. Current state of Mediterranean water resources and future trends under climatic and anthropogenic changes. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 498–518.