Abstract
Summary The development of and access to freshwater resources in East Africa is fundamental to the region's sustainable development goals. Following vision documents for regional development and working with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modeling analysis of the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Water scenarios that take an integrated approach to assessing the combined effects of climate change, land use, and increasing human water use suggest that the flow regime of the Nile may remain relatively stable. However, if this stability is to be achieved, while at the same time sufficient water is preserved for healthy freshwater ecosystems, a large fraction of water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly technologies and management. Interconnected analyses of both upstream and downstream water resources over time, guided by co-developed scenarios, are indispensable for planning sustainable water-development pathways.
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