Abstract
In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades.
Highlights
Increasing crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is urgently needed
Our analyses show that a watershed-wide average of between 15 and 30 growing days will be lost depending on the climate change scenario
Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% (30,000 ha) and 95% (57,000 ha) of cultivated areas that are currently used for rainfed sequential cropping or can support it will only be suitable for single cropping (Figs 4 and 5)
Summary
Increasing crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is urgently needed. The population of the region is projected to double by 2050 compared to 2015 [1]. About 97% of current cropland area is under rainfed cultivation [2] and current productivity levels for major food crops, which are the lowest in the world, are inadequate to meet the projected food demand [3]. To meet the food demand of a growing population several options for increasing crop production must be harnessed. These include amongst others crop intensification in rainfed systems to produce higher yields and/or increased cropping frequency, expansion of irrigated area and rainfed cropland expansion.
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