Vulnerability Of Water Resources System Research Articles

Water resources system vulnerability in high mountain areas under climate change

Influencing socio-economic development and ecological environment, water resources system vulnerability (WRSV) is becoming increasingly prevalent in high mountain areas, which are strongly affected by climate change. In this study, the Upper Yangtze River (UYZ) located in hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau was selected for assessing spatiotemporal variations in WRSV, predicting future WRSV and identifying the main influencing factors of WRSV. The spatiotemporal variations in WRSV were estimated based on a framework including sensitivity, exposure, hazard and adaptability, which considered impact of both natural and human activities on WRSV. Moreover, the main influencing factors of WRSV and its future evolution were obtained based on SPHY (Spatial Processes in Hydrology) model, GCMs (General Circulation Models) and attribution analysis. The average WRSV of the UYZ corresponded to medium-low grades during 2001–2019. Overall, the value and increasing trend of WRSV in downstream areas were higher than that of upstream areas. Under various scenarios (SSP 1–2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) with global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the average WRSV would continue to be of medium-low grade. However, the average WRSV of the basin and the area ratio for medium vulnerability and medium-high vulnerability would increase. As the main influencing factor, the hazard level contributed to more than 93% of the change in WRSV during both the historical and future periods. The results indicated that climate change may increase the WRSV of the UYZ and suitable countermeasures would be required to better cope with the impact of climate change on the water resources system. These findings provide a scientific basis for designing adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and achieve social and economic sustainable development.

Evaluate cities' urban water resources system resilience along a river and identify its critical driving factors.

The emergence of a series of problems, such as serious water environment pollution and flood disasters, leads to an increase in an urban water resources system's vulnerability and pressure. In order to alleviate an urban water resources crisis, calculating the water resources system resilience (WRSR) and identifying its impact factors are essential. This paper constructed a resilience evaluation framework of the "Economy-Social Development-Infrastructure-Water Resources-Ecological Environment" water resources system from three stages, i.e. resistance, restoration and adaptability. Then, taking 21 cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt's lower reaches (YREB's lower reaches) as an example, we scientifically measured the WRSR by using the Projection Pursuit Evaluation Model of Real Coding based on the Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA-PP) and analyzed its driving factors with Geographic Detectors (GD). (1) From 2010 to 2018, the overall level of the WRSR along the YREB's lower reaches was low, and it was characterized by attenuation from central cities to marginal cities; Suzhou had the highest average WRSR (0.656), while Chizhou had the lowest (0.207). (2) From stage characteristics, compared with 2010, resistance and restoration of most cities along the YREB's lower reaches showed an upward trend in 2018; however, the adaptability level of some cities was still low. From the perspective of sub-system resilience, resilience levels of different sub-systems in each urban water resources system (UWRS) were different. (3) For impact factors, average factor interpretations of per capita GDP, average wages of employees and affected areas of floods, geological disasters and typhoons were largest. Based on this, this paper provides relevant suggestions for improving the WRSR along the YREB's lower reaches to improve ability of UWRS to resist external risks.

Nonstationary-Probabilistic Framework to Assess the Water Resources System Vulnerability: Long-Term Robust Planning and Timing

AbstractMultiobjective water resources systems require long-term operational plans that consider vulnerability to failure under nonstationary conditions due to climate change. The paper presents a ...

Spatiotemporal analysis of water resources system vulnerability in the Lancang River Basin, China

The Lancang River (Upper Mekong), originated from Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is the main water source for Southeast Asia countries. In recent years, people have paid more and more attention to the impact of climate change and human activities on the Lancang River water resources system. Due to external disturbances, the vulnerability of water resources in the Lancang River Basin (LRB) is also changing, leading to an increase in the probability of possible risks. This study proposes an assessment framework to evaluate water resources system vulnerability and analyze its dynamic change in the LRB during 1998–2014. Quantitative approaches for calculation of sensitivity, exposure, hazard and adaptability are respectively formulated, which highlight the impacts of natural and anthropogenic interference on water resources. Specific management strategies are put forward based on the spatial recognition of water resources system vulnerable areas in the LRB. The results indicate that the sensitivity and exposure of the LRB show an upward trend, while the adaptive capacity shows a downward trend during 1998–2014. The vulnerability of the LRB is at low level currently. However, fluctuations in its vulnerability have increased over time. As a whole, the vulnerability displays a high-to-low gradient from southeast to northwest of the LRB during the study period, the Dali region is the most vulnerable region in the LRB. The areas with high vulnerability are distributed in the southeast of the study area, mainly in the mainstream areas with characterization of frequent human interferences, tend to increase persistently. Based on the results, some suggestions targeted at different vulnerable areas were proposed. This study maps the spatiotemporal characteristics of the water resource vulnerability in the LRB, which reveals hotspot areas from climate-related threats and can provide useful information to improve the adaptation and resilience of the water resources system.

Evaluation of Water Resources Vulnerability in the Coastal Areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea under Seawater Intrusion——A case study of Longkou City, Shandong Province

In view of the increased vulnerability of water resources system caused by seawater intrusion in the coastal areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, this paper based on the VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) model to construct the water resource vulnerability evaluation index system of “exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity” under seawater intrusion. Then use entropy-TOPSIS method to evaluate water resource vulnerability and divide the levels. In addition, take Longkou City of Shandong Province as an example to conduct empirical research. The results show that the water resource vulnerability of Longkou City is at a strong vulnerability level. The water resources system is under obvious pressure. Population density, per capita GDP, temperature and precipitation change are the main factors of the system pressure. Seawater intrusion has a high degree of impact on water resources vulnerability and water resource system is more sensitive to groundwater level, chloride concentration and other stimuli. The improvement of water use efficiency and scientific and technological investment contribute to the significant enhancement of the adaptability of the water resources system of Longkou City.

A Study on Evaluating Water Resources System Vulnerability by Reinforced Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator

Evaluating the vulnerability of a water resources system is a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) problem including multiple indictors and different weights. In this study, a reinforced ordered weighted averaging (ROWA) operator is proposed by incorporating extended ordered weighted average operator (EOWA) and principal component analysis (PCA) to handle the MCDA problem. In ROWA, the weights of indicators are calculated based on component score coefficient and percentage of variance, which makes ROWA avoid the subjective influence of weights provided by different experts. Concretely, the applicability of ROWA is verified by assessing the vulnerability of a water resources system in Handan, China. The obtained results can not only provide the vulnerable degrees of the studied districts but also denote the trend of water resources system vulnerability in Handan from 2009 to 2018. And the indictor that most influenced the outcome is per capita GDP. Compared with EOWA referred to various indictor weights, the represented ROWA shows good objectivity. Finally, this paper also provides the vulnerability of the water resource system in 2025 based on ROWA for water management in Handan City.

An Integrated Analysis of the Effect of Irrigation Efficiency Improvement on the Reliability and Vulnerability of Water Resources System with Regard to Discharge Fluctuations (A Case Study: Dez Basin)

An Integrated Analysis of the Effect of Irrigation Efficiency Improvement on the Reliability and Vulnerability of Water Resources System with Regard to Discharge Fluctuations (A Case Study: Dez Basin)

Research on Analysis and Evaluation Method of Vulnerability of Water Resources System

The water resources system is composed of water resource utilization system, water environmental quality system and water disaster system. This paper analyzes the process of vulnerability formation of water resources utilization system from the aspects of natural endowment of water resources, development and utilization of water resources and water use efficiency. The vulnerability model of water resources utilization system was constructed, and the research on vulnerability level was carried out. Based on the trapezoidal fuzzy number of the difference coefficient, an evaluation method based on the number of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is proposed. The application results show that the principle of the method is clear and the calculation process is simple. It avoids the error that may exist when the value of the component coefficient has a wide peak distribution, and can more accurately reflect the objective actual situation.

Evaluation of water resources system vulnerability based on co-operative co-evolutionary genetic algorithm and projection pursuit model under the DPSIR framework

Water resources vulnerability control management is essential because it is related to the benign evolution of socio-economic, environmental and water resources system. Research on water resources system vulnerability is helpful to realization of water resources sustainable utilization. In this study, the DPSIR framework of driving forces-pressure–state–impact-response was adopted to construct the evaluation index system of water resources system vulnerability. Then the co-evolutionary genetic algorithm and projection pursuit were used to establish evaluation model of water resources system vulnerability. Tengzhou City in Shandong Province was selected as a study area. The system vulnerability was analyzed in terms of driving forces, pressure, state, impact and response on the basis of the projection value calculated by the model. The results show that the five components all belong to vulnerability Grade II, the vulnerability degree of impact and state were higher than other components due to the fierce imbalance in supply-demand and the unsatisfied condition of water resources utilization. It is indicated that the influence of high speed socio-economic development and the overuse of the pesticides have already disturbed the benign development of water environment to some extents. While the indexes in response represented lower vulnerability degree than the other components. The results of the evaluation model are coincident with the status of water resources system in the study area, which indicates that the model is feasible and effective.

Vulnerability of Water Resources System in Hanjiang River Basin to Climate Change

The climate characteristics of the Hanjiang River Basin, which is located in the climatic transition region between North and South China, is not only concerned with the characteristics of north and south regions of China, but also exhibits its own unique pattern. In addition, the Hanjiang River Basin is very important to flood control and water supply of China. Therefore, it is of great significance to optimally allocate water resources and ensure the implement of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project by analyzing the response of water resources system to climate change in the Hanjiang River Basin. In this paper, the change of water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin is predicted by coupling general circulation models (GCMs) and distributed hydrological model at first. Finally, the vulnerability of water resources system in the Hanjiang Basin to climate change is analyzed from average water resources per capita and water resources carrying capacity by combinated with the prediction results of socio-economic development, population growth and water demand in the Hanjiang River Basin. The results show that the adaptability of water resources system in the Hanjiang River Basin is remarkable and the threshold of deterioration of water resources is not found based on climate change condition and the inter-basin water diversion project.

Hierarchy evaluation of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Beijing, China

Rapid population growth and increased economic activity impose an urgent challenge on the sustainability of water resources in Beijing. Water resources system is a complex uncertain system under climate change which is of vulnerability. But water resources system vulnerability research is relatively weak. In this study, we present a multifunctional hierarchy indicator system for the performance evaluation of water resources vulnerability (WRV) under climate change. We established an evaluation model, i.e., analytic hierarchy process combining set pair analysis (AHPSPA) model, for assessing WRV, in which weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evaluation degrees are determined by the set pair analysis (SPA) theory. According to the principle of scientificalness, representative, completeness and operability, the index systems and standard of water resources vulnerability evaluation are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability which include five subsystems: climate change, water resources change, social and economic infrastructure, water use level and water security capability. The AHPSPA model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Beijing with 26 indexes under eight kinds of future climate change scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of the WRV is calculated by connection numbers in the AHPSPA model. Results show that the WRV of Beijing is in the middle vulnerability (3 or III) under above-mentioned different climate change scenarios. The uncertain information is between 37.77 and 39.99 % in the WRV evaluation system in Beijing. Compared with present situation, the WRV will become better under scenario I and III and will become worse under scenario II, scenario IV, scenario representative concentration pathways (RCP)2.6, scenario RCP4.5, scenario RCP6.0 and scenario RCP8.5. In addition, we find that water resources change and water use level factors play more important role in the evaluation system of water resource vulnerability in Beijing. Finally, we make some suggestions for water resources management of Beijing.

Evaluating the Vulnerability of the Water Resources System of Yarkent River Basin under the Background of Accelerating Glacier Melt in the Future

Situations of water resources of inland river basins in the arid Northwest China will be effected profoundly by the accelerating glacier melt in the future. Based on both the scenarios of climatic warming, accelerating glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, the vulnerability of water resources system of Yarkent River basin from 2010 to2030 is assessed quantitatively using the indicator of water deficient ratio. The results show that that the water resources of Yarkent River basin will increase continuously in the future 20 years mainly because of the effect of climatic warming and accelerating glacier melt, that the water resources system will be vulnerable in recent future years, and that in the metaphase of the 21st century the water supply will be over the demand and the water deficiency situation will be relieved greatly. Contrast to the unchanged glacier melt, the climate warming and the accelerating glacier melt resulted have the role to relieve the supply-demand strain to some extent.

Analysis of a Nepalese water resources system: stress, adaptive capacity and vulnerability

It is widely accepted that water resources are vulnerable to socioeconomic development and environment change including climate change/variability. So, analyzing the type and extent of stresses (that render water a vulnerable resource) and the capacity of the system to adapt is necessary for integrated water resources management. This paper departs from the common notion that links vulnerability to water crisis, and analyzes a water resources system in the Bagmati River Basin (BRB) in Nepal from the perspective of both stress and adaptive capacity. The analysis is based on evaluation of eleven indicators, eight parameters, two sub-indices and an index. The situation analysis in basin and sub-watershed scale suggests considerable variation in parameter values and vulnerability index in different geographical (basin and sub-watershed) and spatial (three sub-watersheds) scales within the BRB, revealing the need for differential policy interventions based on scale. The northern sub-watershed in the BRB which has favourable climate for human settlement and cultivation, is more vulnerable than the southern sub-watershed. Relatively higher vulnerability in northern sub-watershed is due to high stress (related mainly to water scarcity) and low adaptive capacity (related mainly to low natural capacity). The comprehensive and easily interpretable finding is expected to help decision makers to reach sound solutions to reduce vulnerability of water resources system in the dynamic environment.

Assessing Climate Change Implications for Water Resources Planning

Numerous recent studies have shown that existing water supply systems are sensitive to climate change. One apparent implication is that water resources planning methods should be modified accordingly. Few of these studies, however, have attempted to account for either the chain of uncertainty in projecting water resources system vulnerability to climate change, or the adaptability of system operation resulting from existing planning strategies. Major uncertainties in water resources climate change assessments lie in a) climate modeling skill; b) errors in regional downscaling of climate model predictions; and c) uncertainties in future water demands. A simulation study was designed to provide insight into some aspects of these uncertainties. Specifically, the question that is addressed is whether a different decision would be made in a reservoir reallocation decision if knowledge about future climate were incorporated (i.e., would planning based on climate change information be justified?). The case study is possible reallocation of flood storage to conservation (municipal water supply) on the Green River, WA. We conclude that, for the case study, reservoir reallocation decisions and system performance would not differ significantly if climate change information were incorporated in the planning process.