Vulnerability of Water Resources System in Hanjiang River Basin to Climate Change

Abstract

The climate characteristics of the Hanjiang River Basin, which is located in the climatic transition region between North and South China, is not only concerned with the characteristics of north and south regions of China, but also exhibits its own unique pattern. In addition, the Hanjiang River Basin is very important to flood control and water supply of China. Therefore, it is of great significance to optimally allocate water resources and ensure the implement of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project by analyzing the response of water resources system to climate change in the Hanjiang River Basin. In this paper, the change of water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin is predicted by coupling general circulation models (GCMs) and distributed hydrological model at first. Finally, the vulnerability of water resources system in the Hanjiang Basin to climate change is analyzed from average water resources per capita and water resources carrying capacity by combinated with the prediction results of socio-economic development, population growth and water demand in the Hanjiang River Basin. The results show that the adaptability of water resources system in the Hanjiang River Basin is remarkable and the threshold of deterioration of water resources is not found based on climate change condition and the inter-basin water diversion project.