Spatiotemporal analysis of water resources system vulnerability in the Lancang River Basin, China

Abstract

The Lancang River (Upper Mekong), originated from Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is the main water source for Southeast Asia countries. In recent years, people have paid more and more attention to the impact of climate change and human activities on the Lancang River water resources system. Due to external disturbances, the vulnerability of water resources in the Lancang River Basin (LRB) is also changing, leading to an increase in the probability of possible risks. This study proposes an assessment framework to evaluate water resources system vulnerability and analyze its dynamic change in the LRB during 1998–2014. Quantitative approaches for calculation of sensitivity, exposure, hazard and adaptability are respectively formulated, which highlight the impacts of natural and anthropogenic interference on water resources. Specific management strategies are put forward based on the spatial recognition of water resources system vulnerable areas in the LRB. The results indicate that the sensitivity and exposure of the LRB show an upward trend, while the adaptive capacity shows a downward trend during 1998–2014. The vulnerability of the LRB is at low level currently. However, fluctuations in its vulnerability have increased over time. As a whole, the vulnerability displays a high-to-low gradient from southeast to northwest of the LRB during the study period, the Dali region is the most vulnerable region in the LRB. The areas with high vulnerability are distributed in the southeast of the study area, mainly in the mainstream areas with characterization of frequent human interferences, tend to increase persistently. Based on the results, some suggestions targeted at different vulnerable areas were proposed. This study maps the spatiotemporal characteristics of the water resource vulnerability in the LRB, which reveals hotspot areas from climate-related threats and can provide useful information to improve the adaptation and resilience of the water resources system.