Evaluating the Vulnerability of the Water Resources System of Yarkent River Basin under the Background of Accelerating Glacier Melt in the Future

Abstract

Situations of water resources of inland river basins in the arid Northwest China will be effected profoundly by the accelerating glacier melt in the future. Based on both the scenarios of climatic warming, accelerating glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, the vulnerability of water resources system of Yarkent River basin from 2010 to2030 is assessed quantitatively using the indicator of water deficient ratio. The results show that that the water resources of Yarkent River basin will increase continuously in the future 20 years mainly because of the effect of climatic warming and accelerating glacier melt, that the water resources system will be vulnerable in recent future years, and that in the metaphase of the 21st century the water supply will be over the demand and the water deficiency situation will be relieved greatly. Contrast to the unchanged glacier melt, the climate warming and the accelerating glacier melt resulted have the role to relieve the supply-demand strain to some extent.