Warm Sea Surface Research Articles

Multiple Modulating Processes for Intensive Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting Taiwan in September 2016

September 2016 harbored record-breaking three tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting Taiwan within a month. Multiple modulating processes governing these three TC events and associated rainfall and intensification features are examined. September 2016 fell in a La Nina phase. For interannual variability, major warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in September 2016 shifted eastward toward the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) compared to the Maritime Continent during other La Nina events. These SST anomalies induced strong convergence and convection anomalies facilitating TC formation. The TCs formed in the joint region between a northern anticyclonic anomaly over the northern WNP and a southern cyclonic anomaly extending from the tropical WNP toward Taiwan. They were steered by anomalous easterly/southeasterly flows northwestward toward an anomalous cyclonic center overlying Taiwan, leading to intensive TC activity affecting Taiwan. For intraseasonal variability, the three TCs of September 2016 were steered by anomalous easterly/southeasterly flows in the southern section of a 30–60-day anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical WNP northwestward toward a 30–60-day anomalous cyclone that lay over Taiwan. During these events, local rainfall in Taiwan was mainly affected by moisture convergence due to 3–10-day transient anomalies, rather than intraseasonal anomalies. For TC intensification processes, faster intensification was assisted by decreases in vertical wind shear and increases in upward motion, moisture convergence, upper-level divergence, and SST. Intensification processes were mainly affected by transient anomalies. Overall, interannual and intraseasonal anomalies modulated TC genesis and movement, while transient anomalies influenced local rainfall and intensification processes.

Impact of horizontal resolution on monsoon precipitation for CORDEX-South Asia: A regional earth system model assessment

For the first time for CORDEX-South Asia, a high-resolution regional earth system model (ROM) is adopted to assess the impact of horizontal resolution (0.22° and 0.11°) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and the underlying spatiotemporal variability. ROM at both resolutions bears a close resemblance to observations in simulating the mean precipitation climatology compared to other regional climate models (RCMs) participated in CORDEX- South Asia. ROM shows substantial improvement relative to the ensemble mean of the RCMs included in CORDEX-South Asia. While comparing both simulations with observations, some systematic wet and dry bias over Central India (CI) and Northern Western Ghats is noticed. In general, the wet/dry bias over India is mainly associated with the overestimation/underestimation of the large-scale/convective component. Increasing horizontal resolution from 0.22° to 0.11° significantly adds value in simulating the JJAS mean precipitation by reducing the wet bias over western central India (WCI) and southern peninsular India and dry bias over eastern CI. The reduction in wet/dry bias is mainly associated with suppression/enhancement of the large scale/convective precipitation. This improvement in mean precipitation is partially due to the improved representation of the propagation of mesoscale systems such as boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (eastward and northward). Despite the above improvements, the wet precipitation bias, particularly over WCI, persists. The weaker Findlater Jet associated with weaker land-ocean thermal contrast caused by the warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias over the western Arabian Sea (AS) suggests that AS moisture transport does not contribute to the wet bias over India. The wet bias is possibly associated with favourable atmospheric conditions (atmospheric instability).

Opposite Responses of the Dry and Moist Eddy Heat Transport Into the Arctic in the PAMIP Experiments

AbstractGiven uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the effects of sea ice loss from sea surface warming under climate change. We utilize a moist isentropic circulation framework that accounts for moisture transport, condensation, and eddy transport, in order to analyze the circulation connecting the mid‐latitudes and the Arctic. In PAMIP's atmospheric general circulation model experiments, prescribed sea ice loss reduces poleward heat transport (PHT) by warming the returning moist isentropic circulation at high latitudes, while prescribed warming of the ocean surface increases PHT by strengthening the moist isentropic circulation. Inter‐model spread of PHT into the Arctic reflects the tug‐of‐war between sea‐ice and surface‐warming effects.

Comparison of ocean vertical mixing schemes in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2)

Abstract. For the first time, we compare the effects of four different ocean vertical mixing schemes on the mean state of the ocean and atmosphere in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2). These four schemes are namely the default Pacanowski and Philander (1981) (PP) scheme, the K-profile parameterization (KPP) from the Community Vertical Mixing (CVMix) library, a recently implemented scheme based on turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and a recently developed prognostic scheme for internal wave dissipation, energy, and mixing (IDEMIX) to replace the often assumed constant background diffusivity in the ocean interior. In this study, the IDEMIX scheme is combined with the TKE scheme (collectively called the TKE+IDEMIX scheme) to provide an energetically more consistent framework for mixing, as it does not rely on the unwanted effect of creating spurious energy for mixing. Energetic consistency can have implications on the climate. Therefore, we focus on the effects of TKE+IDEMIX on the climate mean state and compare them with the first three schemes that are commonly used in other models but are not energetically consistent. We find warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas using KPP or TKE(+IDEMIX), which is related to 10 % higher overflows that cause a stronger and deeper upper cell of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thereby an enhanced northward heat transport and higher inflow of warm and saline water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic. Saltier subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas lead to increased deep convection and thus to the increased overflows. Due to the warmer SSTs, the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere become warmer with TKE(+IDEMIX), weakening the meridional gradient and thus the jet stream. With KPP, the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere also become warmer without weakening the jet stream. Using an energetically more consistent scheme (TKE+IDEMIX) produces a more heterogeneous and realistic pattern of vertical eddy diffusivity, with lower diffusivities in deep and flat-bottom basins and elevated turbulence over rough topography. IDEMIX improves in particular the diffusivity in the Arctic Ocean and reduces the warm bias in the Atlantic Water layer. We conclude that although shortcomings due to model resolution determine the global-scale bias pattern, the choice of the vertical mixing scheme may play an important role for regional biases.

Synopsis of the dramatic climate change in Iran: a seasonal synoptic analysis

This study examines the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis model datasets to display the existence of the anomaly periodic time with the significant atmospheric changes in Iran. Datasets such as surface air temperatures, relative humidity, surface soil moisture, precipitation rate, mean sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height, near-surface vorticity and surface scale winds have been used. The anomalies’ departures from climate normal for the meteorological datasets are investigated, and synoptically patterns have been analysed. The yearly seasonal mean surface air temperature time series during 1948–2018 displays a dramatic warming shift with an abnormal pattern in Iran from 1994 onwards. The analysis of the other datasets resulted from ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 database also confirm a warming shift nearly from 1994 over Iran. The statistical analysis of t-tests shows the existence of a significant difference in seasonal mean surface air temperatures during the anomaly period (1994–2018) and the mean values during climatology normal periodic time (1981–2010). This suggests remarkable warming over all parts of Iran with the highest changes in surface temperatures ranging ~0.1–1 °C in spring and the lowest change in fall ranging ~0.1–0.7 °C. Significant changes have resulted in precipitation rate, atmospheric humidity, soil moistures and surface wind speeds. Also, due to the strengthened northern high-pressure system along with the intensification of the 500 hPa ridge and less atmospheric humidity, a rather stable, warmer and drier atmosphere with less precipitation (respect to climate normal) over the most part of Iran has been indicated. The low-level vorticity anomalies have displayed the intensified flows from the regional desert areas to the central and north-east of Iran and from Iraq to the west and south-west of Iran for all seasons (with the higher gradient in summer rather than other seasons). Also, mean sea level pressure anomalies have exposed the increase in pressure gradient mostly over the western and central parts in all seasons except winter (with decreased wind speeds leads to haze or accumulated pollutants). This may cause instability in these parts with the possibility of frequent dust storm because of wind acceleration and warmer and dry atmospheric conditions rather normal mean. However, this study shows that during the fall seasons, humidity and precipitation values in the south-west and south-east area have been increased in comparison with the normal mean values. The increase in relative humidity during fall in the south-east areas can be associated with the impact of the intensified south-easterly flows (southern low-pressure tongue). This is accompanying by rather warmer sea surface temperatures in the southern marine areas, especially in the Oman sea and the northern Indian Ocean. Overall, this study presents some synoptic abnormal patterns associated with the recent Iran significant atmospheric climate changes.

Maritime Cloud and Drizzle Microphysical Properties Retrieved From Ship‐Based Observations During MAGIC

AbstractThe Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) field campaign provided a wealth of information looking at the stratocumulus to cumulus transition (SCT) over the Eastern‐North Pacific (ENP), however, the lack of cloud in situ measurements gave limited information. Using the observations of Marine W‐band ARM cloud radar, ceilometer, and three‐channel microwave radiometer onboard the ship, we retrieve the single‐layer, low‐level cloud‐droplet effective radius and drizzle median radius (rc and rm,d), number concentration (Nc and Nd), and liquid water content (LWCc and LWCd) using the methods in Wu et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032205). Based on the results during MAGIC, we found that both cloud base and top heights increase approximately 0.75 km from Los Angeles (LA) until cloud breakup (CB) before leveling off. Low cloud fractions (CFs) ranged from ∼85% halfway between LA and CB to ∼20% near Hawaii. Retrieved rc values decreased approximately 2 μm from peak CF to Hawaii while rm,d increased more than 20 μm over the same path. Mean values of rc, rm,d, Nc, Nd, LWCc, and LWCd during MAGIC are 12.1 μm, 55.8 μm, 97.9 cm−3, 0.09 cm−3, 0.40 g m−3, and 0.05 g m−3, respectively. Compared to the mean values over the Azores in Wu et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032205), the mean cloud and drizzle microphysical properties during MAGIC, except LWCd which is roughly equal, are greater due to higher liquid water path and warmer sea surface temperature. This information allows for a better understanding of the SCT over the ENP and can be used to better improve model simulations.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Western Indian Ocean as a Trigger for Atlantic Niño Events

AbstractPacific El Niño and Atlantic Niño events represent prominent interannual climate fluctuations in tropical regions. Both of them have considerable impacts on the climate system and human livelihoods. The interaction between the Pacific El Niño and Atlantic Niño has received wide attention. Here, we use observations and numerical model experiments to show a new trigger from the western Indian Ocean (WIO) that can serve as a predictor for Atlantic Niño events. The warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the WIO alter the Walker circulation in the boreal winter, weaken the surface trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and favor an Atlantic Niño in the subsequent summer. These inter‐basin processes also affect the interaction between the Pacific El Niño and Atlantic Niño. The results imply that a better simulation of the WIO SST and its teleconnection may help to forecast Atlantic Niño events.

Linking the Madden–Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones and westerly wind bursts as part of El Niño development

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that occur over the western and central equatorial Pacific are believed to play an important role in ENSO dynamics; however, the mechanisms of WWB generation are still debated. In this study we investigate a link between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and WWBs that involves tropical cyclones (TCs) generated within the MJO sufficiently close to the equator. Using an atmospheric reanalysis and WWB composites, we first isolate WWBs that occur (1) between December and April and (2) between May and November, corresponding to the onset and development stages of El Nino. We find that during the onset stage, a warm background sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly develops over the central-western equatorial Pacific with anomalous westerly winds to its west, which draws the MJO convective activity in the southern hemisphere closer to the equator. As a result, westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO together with tropical cyclones embedded in the MJO induce strong WWBs (during neutral conditions the MJO usually takes a more southerly route and cannot induce strong bursts). Subsequently, during the development stage of El Nino, there develops an anomalous warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, also with corresponding westerly winds, which steers the MJO path, now in the northern hemisphere, toward the equator, strengthening the MJO signal over the central equatorial Pacific. Consequently, tropical cyclones modulated by the MJO move closer to the equator and farther east, facilitating WWBs. Thus, MJO events with embedded tropical cyclones are crucial for the generation process of WWBs during the onset and development of El Nino.

Temperature Fluctuation Attenuates the Effects of Warming in Estuarine Microbial Plankton Communities

Sea surface warming has the potential to alter the diversity, trophic organization and productivity of marine communities. However, it is unknown if temperature fluctuations that ecosystems naturally experience can alter the predicted impacts of warming. We address this uncertainty by exposing a natural marine plankton community to warming conditions (+3°C) under a constant vs. fluctuating (±3°C) temperature regime using an experimental mesocosm approach. We evaluated changes in stoichiometry, biomass, nutrient uptake, taxonomic composition, species richness and diversity, photosynthetic performance, and community metabolic balance. Overall, warming had a stronger impact than fluctuating temperature on all biological organization levels considered. As the ecological succession progressed toward post-bloom, the effects of warming on phytoplankton biomass, species richness, and net community productivity intensified, likely due to a stimulated microzooplankton grazing, and the community metabolic balance shifted toward a CO2 source. However, fluctuating temperatures reduced the negative effects of warming on photosynthetic performance and net community productivity by 40%. Our results demonstrate that temperature fluctuations may temper the negative effect of warming on marine net productivity. These findings highlight the need to consider short-term thermal fluctuations in experimental and modeling approaches because the use of constant warming conditions could lead to an overestimation of the real magnitude of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Recent increase in the occurrences of Christmas typhoons in the Western North Pacific

To imply the gravity of their impact on Christmas celebration, the term Christmas typhoon recently became more popular to refer to tropical cyclones (TC) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during its less active season. The past 9 years from 2012 to 2020 saw more than 70% (210%) increases in Christmas typhoon occurrences in the WNP (Philippines). Furthermore, Mindanao Island, which is located in southern Philippines, has experienced an unprecedented 480% increase in TC passage in the same period. Here we show that the detected recent increase in Christmas typhoons are mainly associated with the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to its positive phase in early 2010s, which led to favorable changes in the large-scale environment for TC development such as higher relative vorticity, anomalous low-level westerlies, warmer sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, and extended WNP subtropical high. We also found that the poleward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and possibly, the recent recovery of the Siberian High contributed to such increased occurrences. As opposed to the more active TC season, there is a wide research gap during the less active season. We aim to fill in this knowledge gap to gain better insights on TC risk reduction.

Decadal Modulation of the ENSO–Indian Ocean Basin Warming Relationship during the Decaying Summer by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

AbstractMany previous studies have shown that an Indian Ocean basin warming (IOBW) occurs usually during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying spring to summer seasons through modifying the equatorial zonal circulation. Decadal modulation associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) is further investigated here to understand the nonstationary ENSO–IOBW relationship during ENSO decaying summer (July–September). During the positive IPO phase, significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean in El Niño decaying summers and vice versa for La Niña events, while these patterns are not well detected in the negative IPO phase. Different decaying speeds of ENSO associated with the IPO phase, largely controlled by both zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks, are suggested to be mainly responsible for these different ENSO–IOBW relationships. In contrast to ENSO events in the negative IPO phase, the ones in the positive IPO phase display a slower decaying speed and delay their transitions both from a warm to a cold state and a cold to a warm state. The slower decay of El Niño and La Niña thereby helps to sustain the teleconnection forcing over the equatorial Indian Ocean and corresponding SST anomalies there can persist into summer. This IPO modulation of the ENSO–IOBW relationship carries important implications for the seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies and associated summer climate anomalies.

Simulated Thermocline Tilt Over the Tropical Indian Ocean and Its Influence on Future Sea Surface Temperature Variability

AbstractMost coupled climate models simulate an overly shallow thermocline over the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (SEIO). Through the Bjerknes feedback loop, the associated unrealistic thermocline tilt leads to warmer sea surface temperature (SST) over the western equatorial Indian Ocean than the SEIO, which is conducive to equatorial easterly winds. Similar to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 6 of the CMIP continues to simulate such overly tilted thermocline. On the one hand, this leads to overly strong SST variability, and on the other hand, it provides an inherent limit for the thermocline to incline further under greenhouse warming. Consequently, models with a more realistic tilt in the present‐day climate project a greater shoaling of the thermocline under global warming, which facilities upwelling of cool subsurface water, leading to stronger increase in SST variability over the SEIO, compared to models with an overly large thermocline tilt.

Tropical Convection in the Caribbean and Surrounding Region during a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982–2020

Warming sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have implications for the climate-sensitive Caribbean region, including potential impacts on precipitation. SSTs have been shown to influence deep convection and rainfall, thus understanding the impacts of warming SSTs is important for predicting regional hydrometeorological conditions. This study investigates the long-term annual and seasonal trends in convection using the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) for tropical convection from 1982–2020. The GDI is used to describe the type and potential for precipitation events characterized by sub-indices that represent heat and moisture availability, cool/warm mid-levels at 500 hPa, and subsidence inversion, which drive the regional Late, Early, and Dry Rainfall Seasons, respectively. Results show that regional SSTs are warming annually and per season, while regionally averaged GDI values are decreasing annually and for the Dry Season. Spatial analyses show the GDI demonstrates higher, statistically significant correlations with precipitation across the region than with sea-surface temperatures, annually and per season. Moreover, the GDI climatology results show that regional convection exhibits a bimodal pattern resembling the characteristic bimodal precipitation pattern experienced in many parts of the Caribbean and surrounding region. However, the drivers of these conditions need further investigation as SSTs continue to rise while the region experiences a drying trend.

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

A long-standing discrepancy exists between general circulation models (GCMs) and satellite observations: The multimodel mean temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT) in the tropics warms at approximately twice the rate of observations. Using a large ensemble of simulations from a single climate model, we find that tropical TMT trends (1979-2018) vary widely and that a subset of realizations are within the range of satellite observations. Realizations with relatively small tropical TMT trends are accompanied by subdued sea-surface warming in the tropical central and eastern Pacific. Observed changes in sea-surface temperature have a similar pattern, implying that the observed tropical TMT trend has been reduced by multidecadal variability. We also assess the latest generation of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 simulations with muted warming over the central and eastern Pacific also show reduced tropical tropospheric warming. We find that 13% of the model realizations have tropical TMT trends within the observed trend range. These simulations are from models with both small and large climate sensitivity values, illustrating that the magnitude of tropical tropospheric warming is not solely a function of climate sensitivity. For global averages, one-quarter of model simulations exhibit TMT trends in accord with observations. Our results indicate that even on 40-y timescales, natural climate variability is important to consider when comparing observed and simulated tropospheric warming and is sufficiently large to explain TMT trend differences between models and satellite data.

Growing Cumulative Activity of Major Tropical Cyclones

Here, we show that from 1980 onward, the global annual cu- mulative count of major tropical cyclones (TC), category 3 and above, exhibit an upward trend (at 98% con dence level). We attribute this trend to a global sea surface warming. Identi cation and attribution of the growing cumulative frequency of major TC provides the empir- ical foundation for modeling of this phenomenon. Our ndings lead to the stable and ecient data-driven stochastic model of the underlying utmost complex process, which enables estimates of the impact of pro- jected changes in the global radiative balance on the temporal behavior of major TC.

Interdecadal Variability in Myanmar Rainfall in the Monsoon Season (May–October) Using Eigen Methods

In this study, we investigated the interdecadal variability in monsoon rainfall in the Myanmar region. The gauge-based gridded rainfall dataset of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit version TS4.0 (CRU TS4.0) were used (1950–2019) to investigate the interdecadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall using empirical orthogonal function (EOF), singular value decomposition (SVD), and correlation approaches. The results reveal relatively negative rainfall anomalies during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, whereas strong positive rainfall anomalies were identified for the 1970s and 2010s. The dominant spatial variability mode showed a dipole pattern with a total variance of 47%. The power spectra of the principal component (PC) from EOF revealed a significant peak during decadal timescales (20–30 years). The Myanmar summer monsoon rainfall positively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and negatively correlated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The results reveal that extreme monsoon rainfall (flood) events occurred during the negative phase of the PDO and below-average rainfall (drought) occurred during the positive phase of the PDO. The cold phase (warm phase) of AMO was generally associated with negative (positive) decadal monsoon rainfall. The first SVD mode indicated the Myanmar rainfall pattern associated with the cold and warm phase of the PDO and AMO, suggesting that enhanced rainfall for about 53% of the square covariance fraction was related to heavy rain over the study region except for the central and eastern parts. The second SVD mode demonstrated warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño pattern) and cold SST in the North Atlantic Ocean, implying a rainfall deficit of about 33% of the square covariance fraction, which could be associated with dry El Niño conditions (drought). The third SVD revealed that cold SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (La Niña pattern) caused enhance rainfall with a 6.7% square covariance fraction related to flood conditions. Thus, the extra-subtropical phenomena may affect the average summer monsoon trends over Myanmar by enhancing the cross-equatorial moisture trajectories into the North Atlantic Ocean.

Inter-basin and Multi-time Scale Interactions in generating the 2019 Extreme Indian Ocean Dipole

AbstractAn unprecedented extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event (pIOD) occurred in 2019, which has caused widespread disastrous impacts on countries bordering the Indian Ocean, including the East African floods and vast bushfires in Australia. Here we investigate the causes for the 2019 pIOD by analyzing multiple observational datasets and performing numerical model experiments. We find that the 2019 pIOD is triggered in May by easterly wind bursts over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with the dry phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, and sustained by the local atmosphere-ocean interaction thereafter. During September-November, warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central-western tropical Pacific further enhance the Indian Ocean’s easterly winds, bringing the pIOD to an extreme magnitude. The central-western tropical Pacific warm SSTA is strengthened by two consecutive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events that originate from the tropical Indian Ocean. Our results highlight the important roles of cross-basin and cross-timescale interactions in generating extreme IOD events. The lack of accurate representation of these interactions may be the root for a short lead time in predicting this extreme pIOD with a state-of-the-art climate forecast model.

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated in PlioMIP2

Abstract. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.

Phenological mismatch, carryover effects, and marine survival in a wild steelhead trout Oncorhynchus mykiss population

Climate-driven changes in the oceans, such as shifts in prey timing and abundance, could influence variability in population productivity of marine fishes. For example, according to the match/mismatch hypothesis, the temporal matching of the young salmon outmigration from freshwater to the ocean relative to the timing of availability of their prey could influence their marine survival. Indeed, understanding patterns and processes of marine survival is particularly pressing in many salmon and steelhead trout populations due to recent declines. To determine whether phenological mismatches between juvenile salmonids and their prey could contribute to low ocean survival, we analyzed the migration timing and ocean survival of 22,116 tagged juvenile steelhead trout Oncorhynchus mykiss over 12 years from the Wind River, Washington State, USA. We used a Bayesian multilevel modelling approach with variable selection to assess how survival was associated with body size, river exit date, the biological spring transition date (the day when northern zooplankton first appeared in the coastal region near the Columbia River estuary), and the degree of mismatch (the effect of the interaction between individual outmigration timing and biological spring transition date). The variables with the highest probability of contributing to individual survival were fish size (100%), river exit date (99%), the interaction between year and river exit date (91%), and the biological spring transition date (64%). Fish that were larger than average at outmigration had higher ocean survival, providing further evidence that freshwater growing conditions have carryover effects on marine survival. Years with greater annual phenological mismatches such as those years with late biological spring transition dates (i.e., occurring after June 1st), or warm sea surface temperatures, had sufficiently low marine survival to compromise recovery goals. Substantial intra-annual variation in outmigration timing buffered the population from inter-annual variation in optimal outmigration timing. Collectively these findings indicate that freshwater growing conditions, migration timing, and the timing of high-quality food availability in the nearshore coastal environment work in concert to influence individual survival and annual smolt-to-adult returns.

Impact of the Benguela coastal low-level jet on the southeast tropical Atlantic SST bias in a regional ocean model

The current generation of coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, which are widely used for studying the dynamics of the climate system and to make projections of future climate, suffers from erroneously warm (exceeding 5 °C) sea surface temperature (SST) simulation in the eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. While recent improvements in the horizontal resolution of coupled model components helped to alleviate this issue in the North and South Pacific and North Atlantic oceans, the warm bias in the Southeast Tropical Atlantic (SETA) region still remains above 5 °C. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of inaccuracies in the near-coastal winds, especially in the Benguela low-level coastal jet (BLLCJ), in the formation of this warm SST bias. In addition, unique ocean circulation features like the poleward flowing coastal current and the presence of a strong coastal SST front were argued to contribute to the complexity in simulating realistic SST in the SETA region. In this study, we investigate how ocean model resolution and the spatial structure and strength of the BLLCJ affect the SST warm bias in the SETA. We conducted a suite of ocean model experiments with varying horizontal resolutions (81–3 km) and different atmospheric forcing products. We found that the accuracy in the magnitude of BLLCJ’s alongshore component and in the spatial structure of BLLCJ are the primary factors in reducing the warm SST bias in SETA and the ocean model horizontal resolution is of only secondary importance. A weaker alongshore component of the BLLCJ leads to a weaker upwelling through Ekman transport and fails to generate a downwind equatorward surface jet in the ocean. When the core of the BLLCJ is too far offshore, the broad wind stress curl zone gives rise to anomalous poleward depth integrated flow through Sverdrup balance and weakens the wind stress curl induced Ekman pumping near the coast. Both the presence of a poleward current, which can transport warm equatorial waters farther south, and the absence of the equatorward surface jet contributes to the warm SST bias. Heat budget analysis shows that the contribution from the anomalous poleward flow is a bigger contributor to the warm bias than the weak upwelling. With more realistic, high-resolution winds, an ocean model resolution increase from 27 to 9 km slightly reduces the extent and magnitude of SST bias. However, no such improvement occurs with coarse resolution less realistic winds. Sensitivity experiments using atmospheric forcing fields from different sources confirm that the major contribution to the warm SST bias is in fact from the erroneous winds rather than other atmospheric forcing fields like net shortwave and downward longwave radiation. Further studies are needed to understand whether eddy heat advection or mean flow heat advection primarily cause the warm SST bias.