Abstract
AbstractGiven uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the effects of sea ice loss from sea surface warming under climate change. We utilize a moist isentropic circulation framework that accounts for moisture transport, condensation, and eddy transport, in order to analyze the circulation connecting the mid‐latitudes and the Arctic. In PAMIP's atmospheric general circulation model experiments, prescribed sea ice loss reduces poleward heat transport (PHT) by warming the returning moist isentropic circulation at high latitudes, while prescribed warming of the ocean surface increases PHT by strengthening the moist isentropic circulation. Inter‐model spread of PHT into the Arctic reflects the tug‐of‐war between sea‐ice and surface‐warming effects.
Highlights
Radiative driving of the climate system tends to warm already warm regions such as the tropical lower troposphere, and cool already cold regions such as the high latitude troposphere and the upper atmosphere (Vallis et al, 2015)
This study focuses on eddy poleward heat transport (PHT) since most of the atmospheric energetic transport is accomplished by eddies in the mid and high latitudes
In response to Arctic sea ice loss, all models show an increase of the zonal-mean near-surface DSE and MSE at high latitudes (Figure 1b and see Figure S2 for the individual models)
Summary
Radiative driving of the climate system tends to warm already warm regions such as the tropical lower troposphere, and cool already cold regions such as the high latitude troposphere and the upper atmosphere (Vallis et al, 2015). The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparision Project (PAMIP, Smith et al, 2019), which is part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, Eyring et al, 2016), uses coordinated model experiments to separate the effects of global surface warming from Arctic sea ice loss on the process of polar amplification. This permits a thorough investigation of the role of sea ice loss in various aspects of the atmospheric response to anthropogenic climate change, including changes in climate extremes and the nature of teleconnected responses.
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