Growing Cumulative Activity of Major Tropical Cyclones

Abstract

Here, we show that from 1980 onward, the global annual cu- mulative count of major tropical cyclones (TC), category 3 and above, exhibit an upward trend (at 98% con dence level). We attribute this trend to a global sea surface warming. Identi cation and attribution of the growing cumulative frequency of major TC provides the empir- ical foundation for modeling of this phenomenon. Our ndings lead to the stable and ecient data-driven stochastic model of the underlying utmost complex process, which enables estimates of the impact of pro- jected changes in the global radiative balance on the temporal behavior of major TC.