VUCA Environment Research Articles

IT adaptability role in shaping organizational performance in VUCA environment

IT adaptability role in shaping organizational performance in VUCA environment

Algorithm of stress testing of business risks

The article states that the functioning of business in the VUCA environment, when the existing methods and mechanisms of enterprise risk management are no longer fully adequate to new realities and modern challenges, raises the question of the need, along with standard risk management tools, to apply the latest tools that can not only minimise their impact, change business models and approaches to the implementation of business processes, but also transform business to new levels. It is substantiated that one of such tools, which has already proven itself in the financial sector, is stress testing of risks. Its advantages are briefly described and it is noted that stress testing is effective only if it is systematic. Haphazardness, uncertainty of its place in business management and lack of a clear algorithm for its implementation lead to insufficiently accurate results, which complicates the adoption of correct management decisions to prevent or minimise risks. The article considers approaches to stress testing: "bottom-up approach and top-down approach. Their advantages and disadvantages and conditions of application are emphasised. The author also focuses on the methods of stress testing. It is proved that the choice of a particular stress testing method by a business should be individual. Each business structure should develop its own procedure for conducting stress testing and implement its own models for analysing the impact of various risk factors on the financial result, taking into account the individuality, specifics of its activities, the mechanism for ensuring economic security and the procedure for making managerial decisions. An algorithm (stage) of stress testing of entrepreneurial risks is proposed, which provides for a sequence of actions at each stage of stress testing. The necessity of stress testing the stress resistance of each of the structural units of companies is emphasised, which will ensure a quick response of business to possible threats and challenges in the early stages. The expediency of presenting a detailed description of possible scenarios and consequences in case of their occurrence in the stress testing report is substantiated.

Krizni menadžment u funkciji efektivnog upravljanja destinacijom

Contemporary destination management implies a broader mandate that has shifted the focus from traditional marketing and promotional activities to strategic planning, coordination, and management activities, integrating various stakeholders with a common goal. However, environmental influences, especially negative ones, to which tourism is highly susceptible, as shown by practice in recent years, also affect the overall destination management process. The integration of crisis management into the destination management process assumes that specific procedures exist, adequate task forces are organised, and all necessary resources are recognized, planned and activated at the onset of the crisis. Recent experiences have shown that destinations like Serbia, which failed to establish a destination management system, face much more significant challenges regarding crisis management in tourism. Given that we are increasingly living in the so-called VUCA environment, tourism crisis management is exposed to unique challenges and requires special skills and leadership that will be activated in risky moments. In addition, it is essential to establish institutions with clearly defined tasks and capacities because only the synergy of skills and knowledge, on the one hand, and institutions (structures) will enable successful crisis management in tourism.

The banking sector of Ukraine in the space of influence of the VUCA environment on financial stability

Ukraine has been operating in a VUCA environment for quite a long period of time, which was significantly aggravated under the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic and the beginning of full-scale military operations on the territory of the country. A VUCA environment, as the antipode of stability, is characterized by chaos and unpredictability. In this article, financial stability of the banking sector is considered as its ability to effectively perform its functions and resist the effects of destructive factors of a VUCA environment. The essence and features of a VUCA environment manifestation have been examined in the article. The main challenges of the VUCA environment, which caused destructive changes in macroeconomic indicators and the main indicators of the functioning of the banking sector, have been identified, namely: the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009; destabilization of the political situation, the conduct of the anti-terrorist operation in the east of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea (since 2014); the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (since 2020); a full-scale military invasion of Russia into the territory of Ukraine (since February 24, 2022). The country’s economy as a whole and the banking sector in particular have suffered the greatest losses during the studied period precisely as a result of the full-scale military invasion. In response to the challenges of the VUCA environment, it became necessary to develop concepts for countering destructive influences. The strategy of behavior in the VUCA environment is aimed at adaptive behavior, meaningful risk, and active implementation of innovations in the business model. Among the technologies that change business models of banks, acting as tools of digital transformation, providing new approaches to customer service and organization of internal business processes in banks, there are: artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, biometrics, application programming interfaces, etc.

Enhancing Public Service Delivery in a VUCA Environment in South Africa: A Literature Review

There is widespread consensus that the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) environment has contributed to the subpar quality of public sector service delivery in South Africa. Hence, the aim of this paper is to ascertain how the South African government can enhance service delivery in a VUCA world. This article presents a comprehensive study of a number of secondary literature sources. The author makes an effort to draw attention to knowledge gaps that might serve as the foundation for more research in the future. The main finding is that for the South African government to provide good service in a VUCA environment, its employees must be proficient in Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation, Strategic Planning, Programme and Project Management Methodology, and Change Management Methodology. There is a severe lack of empirical study on the delivery of public sector services in an environment characterized by VUCA. As a result, there is a need for more research on this topic. Specifically, in order to establish the effect that the VUCA environment has on the governments of emerging nations. The research will be beneficial to the governments of developing countries, notably South Africa, as well as to those who work in the field of public administration.

Moresa: confronting risks in a highly uncertain environment

Learning outcomes At the end of the case students will be able to: 1. Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide. 2. Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project. 3. Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique. 4. Propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan. Case overview/synopsis MORESA S.A.S was a family company founded in 1994, whose value proposition focused on construction and permanent advice for the execution of innovative and contemporary projects with more than 27 years of experience in the city of San José de Cucuta, department of Norte de Santander, Colombia. The objective of the case is to Relate risk as one of the 12 principles in project management contemplated in the international standards of the PMBOK Seventh Edition guide; Determine high-level risks by articulating the WBS and RBS of a construction project; Perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the probability and impact of risks through the heat map tool and the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) technique and propose the different response strategies contemplated in the risk management through the formulation of a response and contingency plan. The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master in project management or MBA. For this case, an expert judgment was developed with professionals belonging to different areas of knowledge. Likewise, secondary information was collected from the organization's strategic documents and the analogous estimation through the historical records of the project portfolio developed by the construction company. Finally, the case, classified in the Built Environment, a challenge that project managers must face in VUCA environment through risk management. Complexity academic level The teaching case is designed for academic programs in areas of knowledge of civil engineering, architecture and at postgraduate level such as: Master’s in civil engineering, Master’s in risk management, Master’s in project management or MBA. In the modules of risk management, project management, international standards, the case guides the applicability of methods and artifacts used in risk management considering the process identification, quantitative, qualitative analysis, and development of response strategies and contingency plans. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 2: Built Environment.

Formation Mechanism of Pro-organizational Rule-breaking Behavior from the Perspective of Digitalization Transformation

Pro-organizational Rule-breaking Behavior (PORB) is a negative organizational behavior which seems conceptually harmful to organizations. However, PORB can both be beneficial to organizations from the perspective of organizational value, and helpful to the facilitation of organizational performance or organizational innovation. PORB is actually acquiesced and encouraged by organizations in a way. In the context of digitalization transformation, due to the turbulent VUCA environment and competitive pressure, PORB even has a tendency to increase. Therefore, the correlative research questions as follows are put forward naturally. How to evaluate PORB objectively? Why do employees know that the behavior violates the organizational rules but still commit it? Is it essentially an individual problem of the employees or a problem of the organizational rules? What are the causes and mechanisms of PORB? There have been many researches on Unethical Pro-organizational Behavior and Pro-social Rule-breaking Behavior, which are closely related to PORB. However, there is neither systematically theoretical support nor efficient guiding measures on PORB for enterprise practice for the time being. Our research aims to study the formation mechanism of PORB in the context of digitalization transformation, which can not only develop the elementary theory of PORB, but also broaden the theories of Pro-social Rule-breaking Behavior and Unethical Pro-organizational Behavior. In practice, the results of our research can promote both the organizational management and governance of PORB.

A Study of the Impact of Strategic Human Resource Management on Organizational Resilience.

Organizational resilience is a key capability for modern firms to survive and thrive in the VUCA environment. The purpose of this study is to investigate the mechanism of strategic human resource management on organizational resilience and the mediating and moderating roles of self-efficacy and self-management, respectively, in the relationship between the two. A total of 379 valid questionnaires were obtained from employees of Chinese companies in August 2022, and the data were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 and Amos. The results showed that strategic HRM can effectively contribute to organizational resilience; self-efficacy plays a mediating role in the relationship between strategic HRM and organizational resilience; self-management can effectively contribute to the impact of self-efficacy on organizational resilience; and self-management can hinder the ability of strategic HRM to contribute to organizational resilience. This paper breaks with the previous literature that studied organizational resilience from a single perspective by studying organizational resilience from the perspective of strategic human resource management (SHRM) and verifies that SHRM can be a possible path for Chinese firms to improve organizational resilience.

The contexts of uncertainty: VUCA environments or BANI environments? Towards a social science episteme

The contexts of uncertainty: VUCA environments or BANI environments? Towards a social science episteme

Perception of Agile Leadership in the VUCA Environment: The Case of Erciyes University

Events and phenomena such as the Covid-19 pandemic, migrants, digital transformation, etc., occurring around the world have resulted in increased variability, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. This situation, which is called the new normal and expressed as the VUCA environment, has made it necessary for leaders to change their perspectives, use management approaches more effectively and agility. In this context, the aim of the study is to determine the perceptions of academic staff at Erciyes University regarding the agile leadership characteristics of faculty dean. The research was carried out by face-to-face survey method on 318 academic staff working at Erciyes University. Agile leadership characteristics were examined in five sub-dimensions. According to the results obtained, the perceptions of the deans of the faculties of ERU academic staff towards agile leadership characteristics were found to be over 3.00. It is thought that the organization of training programs for trainers in areas such as distance education, increasing efficiency in distance education, transferring resources to digital media and storing, as well as strategic planning, quality, accreditation studies, evaluator trainings and research universities within the University are effective in this result. The research is especially important in terms of contributing to an area where there is not enough field research in the education sector.

Predicting Learners’ Agility and Readiness for Future Learning Ecosystem

Agility and future readiness are fundamental 21st-century skills that could guide university students globally to thriving and benefiting from a VUCA—volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous—world. The ability to respond flexibly, make informed decisions, and adapt to rapid change reflects future-readiness capabilities. However, little is known about the empirical role of the university curriculum, learning ecosystem, and learning experience as perceived by university students in developing these skills. Therefore, we analysed data collected from 209 Malaysian university students from 16 universities to assess whether these three pertinent factors impact the students’ learning agility and determine how well learning agility predicts learners’ future readiness. The present study empirically assessed a theoretical model using a partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) approach. The analysis supported all the hypotheses proposed in this study, which implies that the extended model could effectively predict learners’ agility and future readiness. The results revealed that the university learning experience, ecosystem, and curriculum positively, directly, and significantly affected learning agility and future readiness. Furthermore, the findings showed that student agility significantly mediated the relationships between the student learning experience, university learning ecosystem, and curriculum and student future readiness. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of a future-ready education nurtured by a vibrant learning ecosystem that delivers lasting values and experiences for students and communities to appreciate the opportunities for a challenging yet exciting future offered by a VUCA environment. The established empirical model describing the empirical interplays between these correlates could, in turn, aid better evidence-based policy making in higher education.

CURRENT TRENDS IN PERSONNEL DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT IN THE FIELD OF HOUSING AND COMMUNAL SERVICES IN A CHANGING VUCA ENVIRONMENT

The article considers the main trends in the management of personnel development in the sphere of housing and communal services in the changing VUCA environment in Ukraine and developed European countries. The article analyzes the main reasons for changes occurring in the practice of personnel management in the sphere of housing and communal services. The article considers models of human resource management in the conditions of transition to the principles of “lean management” in the sphere of housing and communal services. Modern and rational lean-technologies are analyzed and a functional model of personnel development and training under the conditions of “lean management” in the field of housing and communal services is developed. As a result, project proposals for the rationalization of staff activities in the implementation of “lean management” in a volatile VUCA environment in the field of housing and communal services are presented.

Attitude to Labor among Learners of Industrial Colleges in Russia, China and Iran

Introduction. A contradiction which we are able to observe over a few recent decades between necessity to participate in innovative processes and their natural stressogenic character has underlined the importance of developing programs for proactive organizational socialization which will be capable of building up successful behavior competences in VUCA environment in Industry 4.0. When self-actualization in labor is being devalued, attitude to labor is now considered as a key competence. Purpose: to reveal features of attitude to labor as a basis of professional socialization of learners studying at industrial colleges in countries which are now entering the new technological reality with a different degree of success: Russia, China and Iran. Materials and Methods. The analysis draws on the data obtained with WorkBAT method developed by J. Spence and A. Robbins, and their correlation with the values of organizational cultures which are characteristic of industrial colleges. The data on organizational cultures were obtained with OCAI method developed by C. Cameron and R. Quinn. Results. Russian students do not feel the changed nature of labor, their attitude to it is substituted by a wish to strengthen clan-based and loosen hierarchical components of the organizational cultures. Iranian students have a negative attitude to labor in a real hierarchical environment and a positive attitude to it in an innovative market environment, which suggests that they would be engaged and emotionally satisfied. Chinese students, having experienced specific organizational cultures of innovative companies in real life, have a positive attitude to labor in a hierarchical environment of stability and certainty. Discussion and Conclusion. The findings contribute to the development of scientific understanding of the role of value-based work readiness in the turbulent environment of a modern enterprise and the psychological mechanisms of proactive organizational socialization, taking into account socio-cultural country specificity.

Führen auf Distanz!? Personalführung in der Logistikbranche während der Corona-Pandemie

Die Corona-Pandemie hat nicht nur einen technisch-medialen Schub hin zu einer Personalführung auf Distanz bewirkt, sondern auch durch den Veränderungsdruck wesentliche „Dogmen“ der hierarchiebezogenen Machtregulation und Beziehungsgestaltung in Logistikunternehmen in Frage gestellt sowie bestehende Grundüberzeugungen und Praktiken von Personalführung angezweifelt. Diese Dynamik betrifft allerdings die Notwendigkeit der Selbstreflexivität und der psychosozialen Beratungsbereitschaft von Führungskräften bisher kaum und stößt auf robusten Widerstand. Die in der Komplexität des VUKA-Umfeldes erforderlichen Skills liegen nur unzureichend vor. Die Personalführung in der Logistik befindet sich daher in einem Zwischenstadium, das Risiken erkennbar macht. Das Votum Pfohls, dass Personalführung möglicherweise den entscheidenden Wettbewerbsvorteil darstellt, wenn sich die technologischen Innovationen angeglichen haben, zeigt sich in den Ergebnissen einer qualitativen Studie bisher noch nicht hinreichend umgesetzt.

Supply Chain Resilience in Reality VUCA—An International Delphi Study

The modern business world operates in the VUCA environment or reality; volatility and unpredictability are the only constants in it. It is challenging for entrepreneurs to predict the future, and the tested routines, proven habits, or the developed patterns of action no longer function properly, e.g., the logistic strategy of JIT does not fit the new rules of the business game and begins to be treated as a relic. From a business perspective, this new reality is profoundly changing how enterprises and supply chains operate, as well as how we approach supply chain resilience. As a result, we observe a picture of a highly volatile and unpredictable business environment in which vulnerable supply chains operate. The following research questions were asked in the paper: (1) What are the barriers to realizing the concept of Supply Chain Resilience in the reality of VUCA?; and (2) What can be the lead time for the Supply Chain Resilience in reality VUCA? The article presents the results of an expert study using the Delphi method. High-class experts from the scientific community were selected for the research. The results of the research allowed us to answer the research questions posed. Internal barriers to realizing a resilient supply chain in reality VUCA are listed. Based on the indications of experts, three scenarios have also been developed that relate to the speed of the expected lead time of a resilient supply chain, in fact, VUCA. Further research directions on the resilience of supply chains have also been marked out.

Rethinking Expat Management - A Systematic Literature Review of Sustainability in Global Mobility

Against the backdrop of VUCA and BANI environments, climate change, and the pandemic, academic coverage of the topic of sustainable development as a potential new economic paradigm has been introduced to various fields, including international human resource management. This article aims to explore sustainable development-related topics in global mobility (GM) or expatriate management. In a comprehensive systematic literature review, relevant articles published in top IB, management, and CSR journals within the last 20 years were screened according to sustainable GM facets and matched to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although some social aspects were somewhat overrepresented in comparison (e.g., SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being and SDG 5 Gender Equality), we find that other elements, primarily environmental, have not been addressed adequately and thus deserve more attention. Lastly, we draw up a model of how GM departments may impact how to make a change towards a more sustainable GM program.

Pursuing your leader development

To lead effectively in a VUCA (i.e., volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) environment, leaders must quickly and continuously acquire new skills. However, formal development opportunities aren’t nearly enough to support the ongoing skill development leaders need to manage the level of complexity and change they are facing. Instead, leaders must take ownership of their own development. In this paper, we describe a straightforward, four-step process that leaders can implement to pursue their individualized development through leader development planning. Specifically, we walk leaders through the evidence-based steps of creating their unique leader development plan (LDP), including (1) identifying their leadership strengths and weaknesses, (2) setting effective leader development goals, (3) designing SMART strategies, and (4) reflecting, refining, and realigning their plan. Throughout the article, we detail positive examples as well as common pitfalls that we observed from our work supporting 101 mid- to senior-level leaders in designing their LDPs. Our purpose in doing so is to provide tools and examples to enable leaders at all levels to drive their development at their own pace.

A Lightweight Framework for Perception Analysis Based on Multimodal Cognition-Aware Computing.

The VUCA environment challenged neuropsychological research conducted in conventional laboratories. Researchers expected to perform complex multimodal testing tasks in natural, open, and non-laboratory settings. However, for most neuropsychological scientists, the independent construction of a multimodal laboratory in a VUCA environment, such as a construction site, was a significant and comprehensive technological challenge. This study presents a generalized lightweight framework for perception analysis based on multimodal cognition-aware computing, which provided practical updated strategies and technological guidelines for neuromanagement and automation. A real-life test experiment on a construction site was provided to illustrate the feasibility and superiority of the method. The study aimed to fill a technology gap in the application of multimodal physiological and neuropsychological techniques in an open VUCA environment. Meanwhile, it enabled the researchers to improve their systematic technological capabilities and reduce the threshold and trial-and-error costs of experiments to conform to the new trend of VUCA.

Why the agile mindset matters

Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) are drivers in today's business world. To perform amid this accelerated change and the digitalization progress, organizations are implementing agility. However, such an implementation does not happen without stumbling blocks and some fail. One reason for this is actors’ agile mindset (AM), which is necessary to deal succefully within a VUCA environment. Knowledge of the AM is in its infancy and conceptualization and measuring tools for it are lacking. Furthermore, the relation of the AM in terms of strategic agility and performance is still unclear. Our study aims to close these gaps. We examine AM through 15 interviews and a survey (N = 449) to predict strategic agility and performance. As a result, we conceptualize AM as an attitude that comprises four dimensions: attitude towards 1) learning spirit, 2) collaborative exchange, 3) empowered self-guidance, and 4) customer co-creation. Furthermore, we describe how actors with an AM deal with new technologies. We found that AM affects organizational performance mediated by strategic agility. These findings contribute to the agility and management research by providing a conceptualization and measuring instrument for AM. Furthermore, its relevance for strategic agility is explained and its relationship with organizational performance outlined.

Employees’ Types of Intelligence Assessment Method in Accordance with the Elements of the Five-Factor Model Considering Life Cycle Stages

Operational conditions of enterprises in the VUCA environment (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) are characterised by drastic changes in the socio-economic sphere, instability and high level of stress. An increasing number of scientific studies confirm the significant influence of socio-psychological factors on the productivity of an employee, so the task of their effective evaluation should be performed by the management of enterprises. The purpose of the article is to develop tools for evaluating the system of social and psychological indicators, based on the multiplicity of manifestation forms of employee's intelligence. The article presents the author's method of assessing the types of intelligence of employees according to the elements of the five-factor model, taking into account the stages of their life cycle. The proposed method consists of three consecutive stages: reconciliation of the results of the assessment methods application with each element of the five-factor model of the employee's intelligence using the wall method; establishment of connection between the stages of the life cycle, the amount of activity-productivity and the obtained results of elemental evaluation of types of intelligence, determining the reliability of the obtained research results by checking retested reliability and internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient). The article validates the choice of specific methods of assessing each type of employee intelligence based on the elements of the five-factor model. Application of the author's method was carried out at project departments of seven enterprises in the construction industry. The author's evaluation method was developed and tested for the purpose of further research in the influence of intelligence types of the five-factor model on the productivity of employees, taking into account the stages of their life cycle