Algorithm of stress testing of business risks

Abstract

The article states that the functioning of business in the VUCA environment, when the existing methods and mechanisms of enterprise risk management are no longer fully adequate to new realities and modern challenges, raises the question of the need, along with standard risk management tools, to apply the latest tools that can not only minimise their impact, change business models and approaches to the implementation of business processes, but also transform business to new levels. It is substantiated that one of such tools, which has already proven itself in the financial sector, is stress testing of risks. Its advantages are briefly described and it is noted that stress testing is effective only if it is systematic. Haphazardness, uncertainty of its place in business management and lack of a clear algorithm for its implementation lead to insufficiently accurate results, which complicates the adoption of correct management decisions to prevent or minimise risks. The article considers approaches to stress testing: "bottom-up approach and top-down approach. Their advantages and disadvantages and conditions of application are emphasised. The author also focuses on the methods of stress testing. It is proved that the choice of a particular stress testing method by a business should be individual. Each business structure should develop its own procedure for conducting stress testing and implement its own models for analysing the impact of various risk factors on the financial result, taking into account the individuality, specifics of its activities, the mechanism for ensuring economic security and the procedure for making managerial decisions. An algorithm (stage) of stress testing of entrepreneurial risks is proposed, which provides for a sequence of actions at each stage of stress testing. The necessity of stress testing the stress resistance of each of the structural units of companies is emphasised, which will ensure a quick response of business to possible threats and challenges in the early stages. The expediency of presenting a detailed description of possible scenarios and consequences in case of their occurrence in the stress testing report is substantiated.