Voting Behavior Research Articles

Enhancing predictive accuracy of electoral outcomes: A comparative study of dimension reduction techniques in linear regression models

The effectiveness of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FA) in enhancing the predictive accuracy and interpretability of linear regression models for electoral outcomes is examined in this study, with a focus on the Croatian presidential election. Challenges such as multicollinearity and model complexity were addressed through the application of PCA and FA to socio-demographic and political variables, resulting in their transformation into a simpler, more manageable form. Multicollinearity was significantly reduced by PCA, and model stability was improved. Deeper insights into voter behavior were provided by FA through the identification of latent variables. Improvements were noted; however, issues with homoscedasticity were identified, which affected the predictive reliability of the models. The optimized linear regression model, specifically designed to address homoscedasticity (LR2), was found to demonstrate superior performance in terms of predictive accuracy and stability when compared to models that utilized PCA and FA alone. The importance of maintaining homoscedasticity in regression models is underscored by the findings, and the potential of dimension reduction techniques to improve electoral predictions is highlighted. The integration of these techniques in forecasting models is advocated for, with the aim of assisting political analysts and policymakers. It is suggested that future research could explore the combination of these methods with other advanced modeling approaches to further enhance predictive capabilities.

Tackling transparency in UK politics: application of large language models to clustering and classification of UK parliamentary divisions

For a healthier democracy in the UK, novel methods of visualising political data are key to improving transparency, and encouraging engagement. The paper proposes a visualisation tool, using Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT3.5 and GPT4, to conduct Natural Language Processing (NLP) in a novel methodology. We investigate partisan voting profiles, specifically of the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties along 11 predetermined dimensions, ranging from Immigration and Borders, over Welfare and Social Housing, to European Union and Foreign Affairs. Higher order dimensions reveals shifts in party preference over time, while clear trends of more extreme voting behaviour can be seen across parties between 2016 and 2023. The novel visualisation methodology reveals that voting behaviour has become more polarised along party lines, with Labour becoming more left-wing and Conservatives becoming more right-wing regarding most political topics. Liberal Democrats voting behaviour has typically been those of an opposition party, albeit becoming somewhat more extreme.

Pola Preferensi Politik Pemilih Pemula Di Kota Makassar

First-time voters are a fairly large segment of voters. This shows that First-Time voters are a large resource in politics in Indonesia. Indonesia as a democratic country certainly expects every element of society to be actively involved in every democratic process, including the first-time voter segment. First-time voters as an important segment then have quite good political awareness. Through this political awareness, a pattern of political preference formation will then be formed. First-time voters as a large political resource are of course highly expected to be able to participate, at least voting in elections. So far, existing research regarding First-time voters only places as mere objects. However, this research then examines in more depth the patterns of political preference formation that will influence the political behavior of first-time voters. This research is qualitative research with primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with high school students as research informants. Based on the research conducted, it appears that First-time voters in Makassar City have quite good political awareness, which is an implication of their better political knowledge. So, when making choices in an election, First-time voters have a tendency to make their own choices based on their political preferences. The pattern of forming political preferences of first-time voters is sociology, rationality and psychology. Keywords: Firs-time voters, Political Preferences, Political Awareness

Caretaker Conventions in Crisis Times: Dutch Government‐Opposition Dynamics After the Fall of the Government

How does the caretaker status of a government affect party political dynamics in parliament during a crisis? Generally, caretaker governments are not mandated to introduce important policy changes. Yet major crises can demand decisive political action. This article aims to understand the consequences of the caretaker status of the Rutte III government in the Netherlands (after its resignation in January 2021) for government-opposition dynamics during the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. We first analyse party voting behaviour in parliament and then draw on a qualitative text analysis of nine critical parliamentary debates. Surprisingly, we find that differences between mandated and caretaker status have little effect on parliamentary dynamics. Opposition parties with coalition potential are supportive of the government and take on a cooperative tone; opposition parties without coalition potential are not supportive and take on a combative tone and oppose in harsher terms, yet even they barely mention caretaker status. As such, this case provides unique insights into the functioning of caretaker conventions during crises which offer opportunities for new theorising in the undertheorised field of caretaker cabinets and parliaments.

Are women more progressive than men? Attitudinal gender gaps in West European democracies

We assess gender gaps in attitudes to several important and distinct policy areas, including economic left–right issues, gender equality, immigration, environmentalism and traditional ‘moral issues’. Drawing on comprehensive survey data from 14 established democracies in Western Europe, we document that women have more progressive attitudes than men do on all the five attitudinal dimensions that we consider. These patterns are similar (albeit not identical) across West European countries, despite cross-country differences in political cultures and systems. We also elaborate on potential implications of our findings for other political outcomes of interest, including voting behaviour and the functioning of representative democracy, and point to avenues for future research in detailing the mechanisms that contribute to the observed gender gaps.

Geoff Brennan on the Ethics and Rationality of Voting

Geoff Brennan made a wide range of important contributions to the literature on the ethics and rationality of voting. This article begins by situating these contributions in the broader debate over rational choice theory and the so-called paradox of voting. It then introduces Geoff’s expressive theory of voter behaviour, as developed in conjunction with Loren Lomasky, and considers its significance for the justification of democracy and the ethics of voting. The final section engages critically with Geoff’s view that citizens do not have moral duties to vote, developing a novel argument in defence of such duties that appeals to the importance of the social norms that undergird the processes of representative democracy.

Rational voting behaviour accounting for heterogeneous ballots in British elections

Rational voting behaviour accounting for heterogeneous ballots in British elections

What Explains Voting for DENK: Issues, Discrimination or In-group Favouritism?

ABSTRACT Why do ethnic and religious minorities vote for DENK? DENK is the first pro-Turkey and pro-Islam party represented in Dutch parliament, led by Turkish- and Moroccan-origin politicians who openly profess to practicing Islam. Drawing on an original survey (N= 905) among Dutch voters in which we oversampled those with Turkish, Moroccan and Surinamese roots, we put three possible explanations to the test: issues, discrimination and in-group favouritism. Each subsample is religiously mixed and includes Muslims and/or Christians and voters who are not religious. While ethnic in-group favouritism, feelings of belonging in the Netherlands, experiences with discrimination and issues sometimes explain voting for DENK, Muslim in-group favouritism is the decisive factor. These findings contribute to understanding voting behaviour in increasingly religiously diverse European immigration societies.

Does vote buying undermine confidence in ballot secrecy? Theory and experimental evidence

Abstract Why does vote buying persist under the secret ballot? We argue initiating vote-buying transactions allows politicians to undermine voter confidence in the secret ballot, and thus to induce voter compliance. Our analysis consists of three parts. First, we present evidence from a survey experiment in Mexico that shows receiving material goods from a candidate diminishes voter confidence in ballot integrity. Next, we introduce an informational theory of vote buying that explains this phenomenon. Specifically, we develop a model of vote buying as a signaling game, in which a voter who is ex ante uncertain about a politician's capacity to monitor voter behavior learns new information from the politician's actions. Finally, we test the key insights from the model in a lab experiment. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, offering material goods to voters is sufficient to erode their confidence in ballot secrecy, making vote buying effective.

Impact of Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) on Voting Behavior of Women in District Sanghar

This paper, based on the findings of the research project sponsored by Sindh Higher Education Commission, attempts to study the impact of BISP on the voting behaviour of women in district Sanghar, Pakistan. Sanghar is one of the largest districts of Rural Sindh in terms of population and area, which is comprised of 6 talukas. The population of district is more than 2 million and around half of the population of district is female. There are mainly two large political parties in district Sanghar which secure most of the seats of national as well as provincial assemblies. However, after the launching of Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) in 2008, the results of elections have turned in favour of one party. In last general elections 2018 Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) bagged 6 out of 9 seats as compared to 0 seats out of 9 in 2002. Thus, the study has selected the Sanghar district as model to assess the impact of BISP on voting behavior. Mixed method research approach was employed to collect data for this study. Total of 1079 face-to-face structured questionnaires were administered and 12 focus group discussion (FGDs) were conducted in six talukas of the district. The results demonstrate major change in the voting behavior of voters in district Sanghar. The findings of the study suggest the significant impact of BISP on the voting behavior of women in Sanghar district.

Does the top two primary system moderate the voting behavior of elected officials?

AbstractObjectiveTop two primary systems have been touted to increase moderation in politics. In a top two primary, the two candidates with the most votes continue on to the general election even if they are from the same political party. Candidates no longer have to cater to the extremes of their party in order to make it through the primary, so the thought is that candidates would be encouraged to be moderate throughout the election cycle to attract the median voter.MethodsWashington State adopted a top two primary system in 2008, which allows us to look at empirical evidence about whether the top two primary actually encourages moderation in politics. We analyze voting records of elected officials before and after the adoption of the top two primary.ResultsWe find evidence that the top two primary correlates with moderation in the voting behavior of elected officials, ceteris paribus.ConclusionPolicymakers may want to consider the structure of primaries and how they could be changed to help encourage moderation in the voting of elected officials.

Deepfake Cases in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election: Impact and Implications for Democracy

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India have been significantly impacted by the pervasive use of deepfake technology, raising critical concerns about its implications for democracy. This article delves into specific instances of deepfake utilization during the election, exploring their effects on voter behavior and broader democratic processes. It highlights how deepfakes have been employed to spread misinformation, manipulate voter perceptions, and discredit political opponents, thereby undermining trust in the electoral system. The response from regulatory bodies, including the Election Commission of India and the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Center, is examined, showcasing efforts to mitigate these threats. Furthermore, the article discusses the urgent need for enhanced regulatory measures and public awareness to combat the growing menace of AI-driven misinformation. The findings underscore the profound challenges that deepfake technology poses to the integrity of democratic elections, emphasizing the necessity for collaborative strategies to protect democratic values in the digital age.

Influence of social cleavage and media usage on political behavior: a case of Pakistan

Increasingly media provides ample opportunities for the audiences to make media choices and form different levels of exposure along political lines. Predominately, Pakistan’s media is recognized as an irreplaceable tool in sparking change in the political landscape, forgoing national-regional identities, and bridging social gaps. Due to recent technological advancements citizens’ media usage brought changes in the political behavior of citizens regarding party choices and voting behavior. Such changes in the political behavior of citizens affect decision making which is influenced by social cleavage of education, gender, and age. However, contrary to similar historical changes, these advances have widened rather than narrowed societal cleavages. The objective of the paper is to explore the influence of social cleavage and media usage on political behavior of students and faculty in Pakistan specifically NUML university, Islamabad. This research explores how social cleavage and recent advances in digital media access changed the political behavior of faculty and students of NUML university. The paper employed survey-based research with a sample of 250 faculty members and students of NUML, Islamabad. According to results, it is concluded that social cleavage of education, age, and gender plays a vital role in transforming the political behavior of both faculty members and students. Likewise, persistent use of social media portrays positive political participation along with accountable voting behavior, whereby males are more active in participating in political activities as compared to females. The paper has policy implications for a one-dimensional media approach for ignoring solutions to political problems and understanding citizenship rights. Focused and well-defined policies are required to bring youth back to broadcasting media.

Populist Leaders as Gatekeepers: André Ventura Uses News to Legitimize the Discourse

This study explores the role of populist leaders as gatekeepers on social media, seeking to understand how André Ventura, president of Chega!, uses news to legitimize his political discourse. The methodology involved collecting 90 tweets containing legacy media news features, posted by Ventura on the social media platform X. These tweets cover key political events such as the resignation of Portugal’s Prime Minister, the dissolution of the Portuguese Parliament, and European elections. Quantitative analysis using Voyant Tools identified key terms related to Ventura’s ideological stance, while Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) examined how these terms support his political narrative. The findings reveal a strategic use of news to promote themes like nationalism, immigration control, corruption and social dichotomy between “us” and “them”. Ventura’s tweets leverage news headlines to enhance his persuasive appeal, acting as heuristic shortcuts to reinforce his political messages. This study highlights the relevance of understanding social media’s role in promoting populism and suggests avenues for future research, including comparative analyses of other populist leaders and the impact of these narratives on voter behavior and perceptions.

Backsliding Populist Governments in the Council: The Case of the Hungarian Fidesz

Populist governments aim to fundamentally challenge the EU, raising the question of when and how backsliding populist governments disrupt decision-making in the Council of the EU (hereafter Council). Due to their anti-elite and strong anti-EU stance, along with their opposition to core values of liberal democracy, I argue that these governments are more inclined to resort to <em>unpolitics</em>, understood as “unsettlement.” Analysing the behaviour of the Hungarian Fidesz government in the Council, the article demonstrates that populist governments resort to unpolitics but use an à la carte approach. Populist backsliding governments selectively oppose the Council’s formal and informal decision-making rules. Looking at the voting behaviour in the Council since 2009, the article shows that the Fidesz government preserves the norm of consensus. However, over time, it has become the government that has most often broken with this norm. Conversely, when it comes to “backsliding-inhibiting competences,” the Fidesz government challenges both formal and informal rules through a wide range of strategies, i.e., systematically contesting the legality of procedures and decisions, embracing a confrontational approach and diplomacy, self-victimisation, bending the truth, and accusatory rhetoric. To illustrate them, the article focuses on decisions related to the dismantlement of the rule of law in the country, such as Article 7 TEU, the application of Regulation 2020/2092, and the disbursement of Cohesion funds.

Choice Overload in Crowded Primary Elections

The number of candidates running in U.S. primary elections is increasing. Contested primary elections force voters to decide between candidates that share party labels and are ideologically similar. Similar to contexts of non-partisan elections, an increase in the number of candidates should exacerbate the cognitive demand of voting in primary elections. We expect large candidate fields in primaries make voters (1) spend less time looking at each candidate profile, (2) more likely to abstain, (3) more likely to vote based on ballot position, and (4) more likely to feel overwhelmed with the decision. All four of these expectations were preregistered. We test the effect of large candidate fields on voter behavior using a survey experiment ( n = 2000) fielded by YouGov. We find large candidate fields cause respondents to spend less time looking at candidate profiles, to select candidates in the first half of the ballot, and to feel overwhelmed by the decision-making process. In contrast to our expectations, we find large candidate fields make respondents less likely to abstain.

Third Time's the Charm:The Youth Vote and Prabowo's Victory in the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election

After previous failed attempts, Prabowo Subianto won the 2024 Indonesian presidential election. In this article, we outline the events that unfolded in the run-up to the election before analyzing the drivers of Indonesian voting behaviour based on original survey data. Our analyses underscore the importance of transformations in the generational composition of the Indonesian electorate: younger voters, especially those born after the return of democracy, are fuelling its erosion with their support of a former general accused of human rights abuses. In addition to benefitting from the support of incumbent President Joko Widodo, we argue that Prabowo's victory was underpinned by a sophisticated social media campaign, the waning memory of Indonesia's authoritarian past, and a young populace anxious about their economic prospects.

Mixtures of Probit Regression Models with Overlapping Clusters

Studies with binary outcomes on a heterogeneous population are quite common. Typically, the heterogeneity is modelled through varying effect coefficients within some binary regression setting combined with a clustering procedure. Most of the existing methods assign statistical units to distinct and non-overlapping clusters. However, there are scenarios where units exhibit a more complex organization and the clusters can be thought as partially overlapping. In this case, the standard approach does not work. In this paper, we define a mixture of regression models that allows overlapping clusters. This approach involves an overlap function that maps the regression coefficients, either at the unit or response level, of the parent clusters into the coefficients of the multiple allocation clusters. In order to deal with this intrinsic heterogeneity, regression analyses have to be stratified for different groups of observations or clusters. We present a computationally efficient Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) scheme for the case of a mixture of probit regressions. A simulation study shows the overall performance of the method. We conclude with two illustrative examples of modelling voting behavior, involving United States (US) Supreme Court justices over a number of topics and members of the United Kingdom (UK) parliament over divisions related to Brexit. These applications provide insights on the usefulness of the method in real applications. The method described can be extended to the case of a generic mixture of multivariate generalized linear models under overlapping clusters.

Digital Democracy in India: How Social Media Shapes Political Narratives?

Social media has significantly impacted the landscape of Indian electoral politics, transforming the dynamics of political campaigning and voter engagement. The adoption of platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, and Instagram in Indian political campaigns represents a fundamental shift in how political messages are crafted and disseminated. The 2014, 2019, and 2024 general elections highlight the strategic role of these platforms in shaping electoral outcomes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has employed social media not only as a tool for broadcasting campaign messages but also for creating interactive, data-driven strategies that personalize voter engagement. This paper examines the multifaceted impact of social media on Indian politics, including its influence on voter behaviour, campaign strategies, and public opinion. It explores both the empowering aspects of digital engagement and the challenges, such as misinformation, echo chambers, and algorithmic biases. The aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of how social media has redefined political communication and its implications for democratic processes in India.

Ideological extremism, left-right orientations, and invalid voting in two-round presidential elections in Latin America

ABSTRACT Ideology is one of the most studied factors affecting voting behavior in modern mass democracies. Despite that, literature on invalid voting has focused on other explanatory factors at the aggregate and individual levels. This article argues that ideology is a relevant explanatory factor affecting invalid voting at the individual level and advances two hypotheses. Specifically, voters with known preferences on the left-right dimension and those further from the center will be less prone to cast an invalid ballot in presidential elections. I test these hypotheses in the first and second rounds of nine presidential elections in four Latin American countries between 2002 and 2019. Additionally, the hypotheses were tested for voters caught in the runoff dilemma, i.e. those who did not vote for one of the two candidates who advanced to the second round. Using the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data, the analysis confirms that left-right orientations and ideological extremism are negatively associated with the probability of casting an invalid vote. The article’s findings help expand our knowledge about how some specific features of ideology affect voting behavior, thus contributing to the literature on ideological and invalid voting.