Voting Behavior Research Articles

Mafia and Political Competition Redirecting Votes not Discouraging Candidates

ABSTRACTThe efforts of organized crime to affect the outcome of elections have been well documented. In the present paper, we exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991, an anticrime measure that mandates dissolution of the city council in the case of suspected mafia infiltration, to show that political competition in municipal elections in Italy, measured by the win margin between the two “strongest” candidates and the Herfindahl index, increases sharply in the first election following a compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of municipalities that have never been subject to council dissolution. We find that this effect of the anti‐mafia policy remains slightly significant up to the third election after dissolution, after which time it disappears. The paper suggests that mafias manipulate electoral outcomes principally by affecting voter behaviour, rather than by discouraging unfriendly candidates. We investigate several channels that might be driving these results.

Attitudes, perceptions, and intentions toward sports betting legalization: a cluster analysis of California residents

ABSTRACT In the United States, the potential legalization of sports betting in non legal states presents a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges. This study examines California voters’ attitudes toward sports betting, the perceived impacts of its legalization, and the factors influencing their voting intentions. Utilizing the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), the research explores how attitudes and subjective norms shape voter behavior. A K-Means clustering analysis identified three distinct voter segments: supporters, neutrals, and opponents. The analysis revealed significant differences in voting intentions, attitudes, and perceived impacts across these clusters. These findings highlight the importance of robust policy and tailored marketing strategies that address the specific concerns and motivations of each voter segment. By providing insights into voter preferences and behaviors, this research offers valuable guidance for policymakers, operators, and stakeholders involved in the sports betting industry, supporting informed decision-making and responsible policy and messaging strategy.

Analysis of Ohio Nurses' Voting Behaviors 2020-2023.

This study provides baseline data for voting patterns and the political affiliation of licensed nurses (licensed practical nurses [LPNs], registered nurses [RNs], and advanced practice registered nurses [APRNs]) in Ohio for the November 2020, 2022, and 2023 general elections. Using two public databases (licensed nurses and registered voters), the findings for 73.7% of all licensed nurses registered to vote are reported, including 18,894 APRNs, 30,731 LPNs, and 137,353 RNs. Compared to the Ohio population eligible to vote, one in 32 persons of the voting-eligible population is a licensed nurse, and one in 51 registered voters in Ohio is an RN. The data show that 11% of the nurses never voted in any of the three general elections, and 47.7% voted in all three. LPNs had the lowest voting (34%) record, while about 48% of RNs and 52% of APRNs voted in all three. Like Ohio's public, nurses' party affiliation (Democrat, Republican, unaffiliated) varied, and most were unaffiliated with any party. Party affiliation was significantly associated with nurse licensure type (e.g., LPNs are less likely to be unaffiliated). Controlling for age and party affiliation, APRNs were more likely than LPNs to vote, and RNs were more likely than LPNs to vote in each election. Unaffiliated voters were less likely than Democrats to vote in all three elections. Across all elections, older voters were more likely to vote. These baseline findings on nurses' actual voting behavior provide the impetus for engaging nurses individually and collectively in voting and policies that increase voter participation of nurses and the public.

Adjusting Self‐Protective and Non‐Response Behaviours in Sensitive Prevalence Estimation by a Two‐Stage Multilevel Randomised Response Technique

SummaryWhen using the customary direct questioning approach to collect sensitive information in a survey, some respondents may have no problem disclosing their true status or opinion, while others may be reluctant to reveal them. The problem of response bias is likely to arise as some responses tend to be more socially desirable than truthful. Hence, the indirect questioning approach can be used to guarantee privacy protection and reduce the influence of social desirability bias. This paper introduces a new technique which combines, both the direct and indirect questioning approaches and allows Bayesian estimates of the prevalence of multisensitive attributes to be obtained by taking into account the estimated proportion of honest respondents under direct questioning. Our proposal stems from a real survey in Taiwan and is illustrated with two motivating examples concerning voting behaviours and sexual identity. The empirical analysis reinforces that the proposed two‐stage multilevel method is satisfactory in mitigating the effects of respondents' self‐protective behaviour, and produces results that are more reliable than those based on the traditional direct questioning approach and better than a previous version of the multilevel randomised response method that ignores the presence of cheating behaviours in the direct questioning stage.

Contesting Western support for Ukraine. The radical left in the European Parliament

ABSTRACT The 2022 full-scale Russian invasion into Ukraine challenged the political parties of the radical left and right that have traditionally been sympathetic to Russia. This paper examines the positions on the Russian war against Ukraine of radical left members of the 9th European Parliament (2019–2024), based on their voting behavior in the first year since the start of the full-scale invasion. The data show that the radical left is most divided over sanctions. In contrast, MEPs from the 18 radical left parties under study are highly united in their support of international law. The divisions among radical left MEPs correlate weakly with the geographical distance to Russia and with their parties’ position on the left/right-axis, but more strongly with parties’ position on socio-cultural questions: Socio-culturally progressive parties are more inclined to support an assertive stance towards Putin’s authoritarian and traditionalist Russia than socio-culturally conservative ones.

SISTEMA ELEITORAL PROPORCIONAL DE LISTA ABERTA: CRÍTICAS DA CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA AO SISTEMA ELEITORAL DO BRASIL

The open-list proportional electoral system is used in democracies such as Brazil for the election of its legislative representatives. This system, however, has been subject to criticism in political science, both in Brazil and internationally, due to its effects on party structure, voter behavior, and the political process in general. This article examines the main theoretical criticisms of the open-list proportional system, discussing issues such as party fragmentation, campaign personalization, distortion of the popular will, intraparty competition, difficulty in electoral accountability, and the tendency toward personalist voting.

French Foreign Policy Shifts in a Multi-dimensional Perspective: The Impact and Consequences of Populism

French foreign policy has played an important role in global politics in history. As one of the core countries in Europe, France's diplomatic decisions not only affect its own interests, but also have a far-reaching impact on the political landscape of Europe and even the world. In the past few decades, the process of globalization, regional conflicts, EU internal dynamics and other factors have continuously reshaped France's diplomatic strategy. In recent years, the rise of populism has been particularly eye-catching. It not only triggered great changes in domestic politics, but also had a far-reaching impact on France's foreign policy. As a political phenomenon, populism is usually characterized by anti-elite, anti-dism and an emphasis on national sovereignty and the will of the people. In France, the rise of populism is reflected not only in the words and deeds of politicians and political parties, but also in the attitude and voting behavior of voters. The impact of populism on French foreign policy is mainly reflected in its attitude towards the European Union, its position on immigration and refugee issues, and its attitude towards international cooperation and multilateralism. This article aims to explore the foreign policy transformation of France under the influence of populism from a multidimensional perspective and analyze the consequences of this change. By comparing France's diplomatic strategies in different historical periods, people can more clearly understand the role of populism in it and its potential impact on future international relations.

Exploring vaccine hesitancy in digital public discourse: From tribal polarization to socio-economic disparities.

This study analyzed online public discourse on Twitter (later rebranded as X) during the COVID-19 pandemic to understand key factors associated with vaccine hesitancy by employing deep-learning techniques. Text classification analysis reveals a significant association between attitudes toward vaccination and the unique socio-economic characteristics of US states, such as education, race, income or voting behavior. However, our results indicate that attributing vaccine hesitancy solely to a single social factor is not appropriate. Furthermore, the topic modeling of online discourse identifies two distinct sets of justifications for vaccine hesitancy. The first set pertains to political concerns, including constitutional rights and conspiracy theories. The second pertains to medical concerns about vaccine safety and efficacy. However, vaccine-hesitant social media users pragmatically use broad categories of justification for their beliefs. This behavior may suggest that vaccine hesitancy is influenced by political beliefs, unconscious emotions, and gut-level instinct. Our findings have further implications for the critical role of trust in public institutions in shaping attitudes toward vaccination and the need for tailored communication strategies to restore faith in marginalized communities.

Beyond coalition and opposition? The effect of councilwide agreements on legislative voting behaviour in Dutch municipalities

AbstractA well‐established finding in the field of legislative behaviour is that parliamentary voting behaviour is nearly always strongly structured by the coalition‐opposition dynamic, even beyond the issues agreed on in the coalition agreement. Can parties break the mould of this coalition‐opposition division? Several Dutch municipal councils work with a councilwide agreement (raadsakkoord) with the specific goal that there is no demarcated coalition and opposition. This could open the political process up for more issue‐driven voting. We test whether council agreements change voting behaviour in the local council. By comparing voting in these municipalities before and after implementing councilwide agreements, we show that these agreements lower the extent to which voting is structured by the coalition‐opposition division. Coalition parties are less likely to vote the same when a councilwide agreement is present. The strength of the coalition‐opposition division depends upon the choices of political parties.

Exploring the connection between electoral systems and personalized behaviour among politicians and voters

AbstractThe personalization of politics includes electoral reforms that give voters more opportunity to select individual representatives as well as behavioural personalization among voters and politicians. Institutional research suggests that the latter is a function of the former, but it remains unclear whether the association between the two types of personalization is actually causal. In order to get empirical leverage on this question, we analyze local elections in Denmark, which feature within‐district and within‐party variation in the openness of party lists. Using detailed information on the behaviour of politicians and voters, we find that, once we take differences between districts and parties into account, the personalization of electoral rules has a negligible effect on behavioural personalization.

Political Breakthrough in a Rural Community during the 2011 Sarawak State Election: An Ethnographic Perspective

This article draws on empirical data and ethnographic evidence as a springboard to explore issues affecting narratives and observations made during the 2011 Sarawak State Election. It throws light on ways in which communities and cultures at the periphery of the Malaysian nation state grapple with the potentials and consequences of elections in the process of economic, political and social transformation. Eschewing aspects of candidates’ selections, electoral campaign process and actual voting behaviour of individual voters, the main analysis is of the formulation of local understandings and meanings of the state elections in two rural settlements of Ba’ Kelalan and Bario located close to the border between Sarawak and Kalimantan. This article suggests that an account of their experiences is a necessity in order to understand what functions and whose interest elections serve, and most importantly what election actually does and means within particular circumstances of local history. As a political phenomenon, elections can look different from the perspective of those close to the centre of power in contrast to those with little power within a political hierarchy.

Sino-US Competition for Political Influence in Africa: Can Bilateral Aid Buy UN Votes?

ABSTRACT As the bilateral tension and geopolitical turbulence intensify, both the US and Chinese governments are escalating their efforts to garner political support from members of the international community. A strategic avenue for this endeavour is the provision of financial aid. This paper examines the effects of Sino-US financial aid to Africa on the voting behaviour of African nations in the UN General Assembly. The findings reveal that financial aid from both China and the US can influence UN General Assembly votes. Specifically, US aid not only directly diminishes Africa’s political support for China but also indirectly undermines the political returns of Chinese aid through its economic and diplomatic engagements with Africa. However, these direct and indirect effects are not reciprocated by Chinese aid vis-à-vis the US.

Psychosocial Factors Influencing Voting Behavior

This study delves into the voting behaviour in the context of Indian electorate, shedding light on understanding it in the relatively new dimension, where the focus is primarily on psychological factors and social factors (demography) influencing the voting behaviour, which further sheds light on understanding the broader issues, like low voter turnout in India compared to other democracies worldwide, understanding of opinion polls and exit surveys and other evolving unethical Influences which are centred around mental process of voters cognition, which could create a new dimension of understanding the need for neuro rights of the voters, where the motive of free and fair elections can be achieved. This pioneering attempt to comprehend the psycho - social factors influencing voting behaviour in the Indian electoral system is groundbreaking as it has never been attempted before. In an election scenario, voters are exposed to a myriad of stimuli related to political candidates, parties, promises, and discussions, prompting selective exposure, perception, and integration processes to form the basis for their voting decisions. The study also draws on the voter turnout theory, highlighting the role of social reference groups and their impact on voter behaviour. Furthermore, it emphasizes the under explored domain of psychological and social factors in explaining political attitudes and voting behaviour among the mass public from relative unexplored dimensions, asserting that psychological traits directly influence the voting behaviour. With the Indian electoral system becoming increasingly dynamic due to diverse societal participation and steadily growing influential factors the need for study arises strongly, This research attempt is being carried forward by examining personality through the DISC personality assessment tool and quantifying the voting behaviour through the theory of planned behaviour questionnaire, the study seeks to discern the connections between demographic variables, personality traits and voting behaviour (intention). The components of voting behaviour were formed on the pivotals of theory of planned behaviour (TBH) such as behaviour beliefs, control beliefs and normative beliefs which more precisely create assessment area of voting behaviour intention. The study employs questionnaire with a five - point Likert scale to measure respondents' agreement with statements related to voting behaviour. The research's objectives include exploring the influence of a voter's personality and demographic variables on their voting behaviour and the influence of specific personality types on various facets of voting behaviour. The study's hypotheses posit that voting behaviour is influenced by psycho - social factors, particularly personality and demographic variables, and that different personality types may alternatively influence the voting behaviour intention. In conclusion, this study aims to elevate our comprehension of this context to a higher standard.

Do Government Benefits Affect Officeholders’ Electoral Fortunes? Evidence from State Earned Income Tax Credits

When do public policies influence citizens’ political attitudes and behavior, and among whom? We study this question using one of the largest social provision programs in the United States: the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). We exploit the staggered roll-out of state-level EITC programs to estimate the causal effect of the program on elections, voter behavior, and attitudes about the government. Contrary to predictions from the policy feedback literature, we show that the credit leads to higher vote shares and approval ratings for the implementing governor. These effects are temporally limited to the first years of the credit’s availability and dissipate over time. Taken together, our results offer new insights about the conditions under which particularistic economic policies affect political outcomes.

Authoritarian Nostalgia, Group Sentiment, and Voter Behavior: Evidence from East Asia

Authoritarian Nostalgia, Group Sentiment, and Voter Behavior: Evidence from East Asia

“The Druze vote in Israel: between ideology, socioeconomic status, kinship, and the Nation-State Basic Law”

ABSTRACT This study investigates the determinants of Druze voting behaviour in Israel, focusing on three theoretical frameworks: ideological, socioeconomic, and kinship theories. Analysing electoral data from 2003 to 2022, the study examines trends in voter turnout and party preferences among the Druze community. Findings reveal a complex interplay of factors influencing Druze political choices. The ideological theory suggests that shifts in political ideology, particularly in response to legislative changes such as the 2018 Nation-State Basic Law, impact Druze voting patterns. Conversely, the socioeconomic theory posits that local economic conditions, education levels, and population demographics shape voting behaviour. Furthermore, the kinship theory highlights the significance of community ties and descriptive representation in guiding political allegiances. Through statistical analysis, the study identifies kinship ties, specifically the inclusion of Druze candidates within political parties, as the most significant predictor of Druze voter support. This suggests that community representation holds considerable sway over Druze political choices, transcending the influence of ideology and socioeconomic factors. In conclusion, while all three theories offer valuable insights, the dominance of the kinship theory underscores the importance of identity and descriptive representation in shaping Druze electoral outcomes in Israel.

Narrow Margins and Misinformation: The Impact of Sharing Fake News in Close Contests

This study investigates the impact of candidates disseminating fake news on voter behavior and electoral outcomes in highly competitive, partisan races. While the effects of fake news on electoral outcomes have been studied, research has yet to examine the impact of candidates’ strategic use of fake news in elections where it may have the greatest impact—close races. This research explores whether the use of fake news influences voter support, particularly among independent voters, in tightly contested elections. Through a conjoint survey experiment involving participants from Amazon MTurk, this study analyzes how variables such as race competitiveness, perceived risk of alienating independents, and the presence of partisan labels affect voter responses to candidates who spread misinformation. The findings indicate that while the competitiveness of a race does not significantly enhance support for candidates sharing fake news, the presence of partisan labels does. These results suggest that voter behavior in response to fake news is more closely tied to partisan identity than to strategic electoral considerations. This study highlights the complex dynamics of misinformation in electoral contexts and its implications for democratic processes.

Personalized Facebook campaigning and the quest for personal votes in Taiwan

ABSTRACT Personalization is a growing trend in politics that has been well studied, yet the current literature has no causal explanations for the relationship between personalized media activities and personal votes or an understanding the contextual factors that shape it. This study examines how candidates have used Facebook as means of personalization and its impact on voting during Taiwan’s 2020 legislative campaign. It assumes that personalized campaigns originate from a need among candidates to gain personal votes and that this need is determined by the intensity of a given competition. Intensified competition between parties increases a candidate’s need for personalized activities on social media, which in turn bring in more personal votes. Through a content analysis of 27,977 Facebook posts and the compiling of data on personal votes, the models confirm two hypotheses: those in party strongholds (safe districts) are less likely to make personalized posts, and those who post more personalized messages are more likely to gain personal votes. This paper enhances our understanding of how different facets of personalization within social media are intricately linked and mutually reinforce one another in shaping voter behavior.

Preventative Polarization: Republican Senators’ Positional Adaptation in the Tea Party Era

Republicans in Congress have, by almost any measure, become significantly more conservative over the last 25 years. We propose that the changing pressures they face when seeking reelection helps explain this trend. Rather than moderating towards the general election median voter as they had previously done, Republican senators became more conservative when seeking reelection to avoid the emergence of, or mitigate the threat from, a primary opponent after the Tea Party emerged. We also show that at the height of the Tea Party era—the 111th to 113th congresses—retiring senators moderated their voting behavior, suggesting that their personal preferences were more moderate than their expressed preferences. During the Trump era, we report mixed results, suggesting that the threat posed by primary challengers was not solely ideological, though the new dynamics and behaviors that emerged in the Tea Party era have continued to shape the Republican Party in the Senate.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.