Vote Shifts Research Articles

A theory of gender’s effect on vote shift with a test based on Turkish elections

ABSTRACT Despite great advances in the last decades, there is an enduring gender gap in a majority of the countries. Gender is prevalent in all aspects of life, and it is impossible to avoid gender roles. The choices regarding gender roles are threefold: Accept them, reject them, or have an ambivalent stand. When voters grow incongruous with their parties, they look for an alternative which is ideologically closer to them. However, evaluating this vote shift without the full effect of gender will provide an incomplete picture of electoral politics. I theorize that when voters are faced with female candidates or female party leaders, their assessment of gender roles will be a deciding factor for whether the intended vote shift will be realized. I apply this extended theory of ideological and gender role congruity to a high gender gap context, Turkey, utilizing district level electoral data. Taking into account the spatial dependence of factors that affect voting behaviour, I empirically demonstrate that for two ideologically opposing parties, the salience of gender politics through the ranking of female candidates on the closed-lists and presence of national female leadership affected their vote share in line with my theoretical expectations in the 2018 general election.

PRU-15: TIADANYA PARTI POLITIK YANG MENANG MAJORITI MUDAH 112 KERUSI PARLIMEN UNTUK MEMBENTUK KERAJAAN PERSEKUTUAN MALAYSIA

The year 2022 is an important year for democratic politics in Malaysia. This is because a General Election (GE) was held to elect representatives to form a stronger and more stable government after the country experienced political turmoil with the appointment of three Prime Ministers to the extent that foreign investors were confused by Malaysia's political position. After the GE was held, Malaysian politics was still at a standstill because no single political party coalition won the GE with a simple majority of 112 parliamentary seats, therefore, the purpose of writing this article is to analyze the results, which is the first time in Malaysian political history that there is no political party won the GE just like the previous 14 GEs. Based on data analysis of the 2022 GE results, observations in the field and analysis of secondary sources such as journal articles and conference papers, the findings show that Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 82 seats, Perikatan Nasional (PN) won 74 seats, Barisan Nasional (BN) 30 seats , Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) 23 seats, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) 6 seats, Parti Warisan Sabah (WARISAN) 3 seats, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) 1 seat, Social Democratic Prosperity Party (KDM) 1 seat and Independent 2 seats. The results of this general election show that no single party managed to get a simple majority of 112 seats to dominate Parliament and the Federal Government. This result is due to BN's failure to win a simple majority due to the large shift of Malay votes to PN. This large shift in votes is a factor in the awareness of Malay voters to choose clean political parties and leaders who can be expected to fight for the rights of Malays and Muslims. As a result of the wisdom of His Majesty the Yang Dipertuan Agong's orders and advice, a Unity Government was formed from 148 members of Parliament which is a 2/3 majority of the 222 members of the Malaysian Parliament consisting of PH, BN, GPS, GRS, WARISAN, KDM, PBM and 2 Independent Members of Parliament. PN (74 members of Parliament) did not join the Unity Government and acted as the opposition. With that as well, Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim from PH has been appointed as the 10th Prime Minister. Therefore, political parties in this country do not have the best option as long as they need Malay-Muslim votes to control as many Parliament seats as possible and be able to form a strong and stable Government.

Economic Reformism vs Sociocultural Conservativism: Parties’ Programmes, Voters’ Attitudes and Territorial Features in the UK General Elections 2019

This study explored the determinants of the massive vote shift that characterised the UK’s 2019 elections. To do so, this study firstly investigated opinions expressed by pro-Labour social groups about the hot issues of the political campaign; secondly, it conducted a cross-constituency analysis on the 2019 vote. The present findings reveal that the issues emphasised by the Conservative manifesto tallied with the opinions of traditional left-wing social groups. The cross-constituency statistical analysis confirmed this point and found a significant association between Labour’s losses and the territorial distribution of the abovementioned social groups. These findings suggest that the crucial aspect of the vote shift was the Conservatives’ appeal to the sociocultural conservativism of part of Labour’s traditional voters.

Do Shifts in Late-Counted Votes Signal Fraud? Evidence from Bolivia

Shifts in late-counted votes often spark unfounded claims of electoral fraud. These claims exploit the early-count mirage: the expedient illusion that, absent fraud, an early advantage will persist. We characterize the early-count mirage and evaluate associated fraud claims in four disputed elections, focusing on the case of Bolivia in 2019. When late-counted votes delivered a narrow victory for the incumbent, fraud accusations followed—with dramatic political consequences. But we find that the vote-share trend can be explained without invoking fraud and that the allegedly suspicious shift in late-counted votes was actually an artifact of methodological and coding errors on the part of electoral observers. We document similar patterns in the other three cases. The details are context specific, but the core insights are general: time trends from legitimate vote-counting processes are far more varied—and errors in influential analysis far more frequent—than election skeptics allege.

Monotonicity violations under plurality with a runoff: the case of French presidential elections

A voting rule is monotonic if a winning candidate never becomes a loser by being raised in voters’ rankings of candidates, ceteris paribus. Plurality with a runoff is known to fail monotonicity. To see how widespread this failure is, we focus on French presidential elections since 1965. We identify mathematical conditions that allow a logically conceivable scenario of vote shifts between candidates that may lead to a monotonicity violation. We show that eight among the ten elections held since 1965 (those in 1965 and 1974 being the exceptions) exhibit this theoretical vulnerability. To be sure, the conceived scenario of vote shifts that enables a monotonicity violation may not be plausible under the political context of the considered election. Thus, we analyze the political landscape of these eight elections and argue that for two of them (2002 and 2007 elections), the monotonicity violation scenario was plausible within the conjuncture of the time.

The Valence Side of the EU: EU Issue Voting in the Aftermath of the Eurozone Crisis

AbstractIn the aftermath of the Euro crisis, EU issues have increasingly affected electoral behaviour, explaining a sizable shift in votes from the Europhile to Eurosceptic parties. This paper advances the argument that EU issue voting is not entirely encompassed in a divisive (pro‐/anti‐) EU dimension, testing the hypothesis that a EU valence voting is currently conditioning electoral behaviour. In particular, we posit that voters support parties evaluating their credibility in achieving not only EU positional goals (‘leave/remain’ in the EU), but also EU valence ones (i.e., making the country count more in Europe). Furthermore, we assess which parties – pro‐/anti‐EU – are more likely to be supported on the basis of this valence issue. Based on survey data from France (2017) and Italy (2018), we found that the EU valence issue is an important voting predictor, with pro‐EU parties mainly benefitting from it.

The Legacy of Rush Limbaugh Will Always Be Tied to Donald Trump

Abstract This article explores Rush Limbaugh’s efforts to tribalize American politics through his racially divisive, falsehood-ridden portrayal of President Obama. By playing and preying on white anxiety, the host laid the groundwork for the election of a president who essentially adopted his view of the Obama presidency. Limbaugh’s rhetoric about Obama serves as a case study whereby the most influential part of the conservative media during those years represents the whole. “How did we get here?” is the essential question right now in American politics. How did we go from a society that relatively easily elected Barack Obama twice to one that, popular vote loss aside, elected Donald Trump, and came within a small popular vote shift in three states from doing so again in 2020? Analyzing how Limbaugh ginned up white racial anxiety about a Black president helps us understand the rise of Trump, who began his White House campaign by serving as the nation’s birther-in-chief and who, in his reaction to the white nationalist terrorist attack in Charlottesville, Virginia, to name just one example, demonstrated his reliance on white identity politics. As Jamelle Bouie wrote: “You can draw a direct line to the rise of Trump from the racial hysteria of talk radio—where Rush Limbaugh, a Trump booster, warned that Obama would turn the world upside down.”

How Much Can the U.S. Congress Resist Political Money? A Quantitative Assessment

The extent to which governments can resist pressures from organized interest groups, and especially from finance, is a perennial source of controversy. This paper tackles this classic question by analyzing votes in the U.S. House of Representatives on measures to weaken the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill in the years following its passage. To control as many factors as possible that could influence floor voting by individual legislators, the analysis focuses on representatives who originally cast votes in favor of the bill but then subsequently voted to dismantle key provisions of it. This design rules out from the start most factors normally advanced by skeptics to explain vote shifts, since these are the same representatives, belonging to the same political party, representing substantially the same districts. Our panel analysis, which also controls for spatial influences, highlights the importance of time-varying factors, especially political money, in moving representatives to shift their positions on amendments such as the “swaps push out” provision. Our results suggest that the links between campaign contributions from the financial sector and switches to a pro-bank vote were direct and substantial: For every $100,000 that Democratic representatives received from finance, the odds they would break with their party’s majority support for the Dodd-Frank legislation increased by 13.9 percent. Democratic representatives who voted in favor of finance often received $200,000–$300,000 from that sector, which raised the odds of switching by 25–40 percent.

Salvini’s success and the collapse of the Five-star Movement: The European elections of 2019

ABSTRACTThe European Parliament elections of 2019 in Italy can be considered as a crucial turning point for the national political system. Indeed, both the balance of power among parties and the governmental dynamics were deeply affected by the outcome of the 2019 elections. In a context of notable electoral instability, an almost perfect turnaround among the two partners of the so-called yellow-green majority occurred: Matteo Salvini’s League doubled its vote share compared to the 2018 parliamentary elections, while the Five-star Movement halved its support. By revealing the asymmetry in the distribution of power in Parliament and in the electorate between the two governing partners, the election outcome marked the beginning of the end for the first Conte government. It eventually led to the unexpected reconciliation between the M5s and the Democratic Party, which in turn resulted in the formation of the second Conte government at the end of the summer. This article analyses the outcome of the European Parliament elections of 2019 in Italy. In particular, it focuses on the context of the electoral campaign and trends in public opinion, the election results in terms of turnout and party support, and the vote shifts experienced by the main parties between 2018 and 2019. Finally, the article also discusses the implications of the election outcome for the evolution of the Italian party system

Relationship of public health with continued shifting of party voting in the United States.

In the U.S. presidential election of 2016, communities with poorer public health shifted votes to the Republican party. Whether this trend has persisted beyond 2016 is unclear. We created a county-level measure of public health (the "unhealthy" component) by performing principal component analysis on 9 health statistics. We then estimated shifting of votes by defining "net vote shift" as the percentage of Republican votes in the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives election minus the percentage of Republican votes in the same election in 2016. Finally, we performed linear regression to assess the independent, county-level association of the unhealthy component with net vote shift after adjusting for county-level demographic factors. The mean county-level net vote shift was -6.4 percentage points (SD 12.6 percentage points), consistent with a mean net vote shift toward the Democratic party. After adjustment for demographic covariates, the unhealthy score was associated with higher net vote shift (17.7 percentage points shift toward Republican per unit unhealthy, p=.0323). In the 2018 congressional elections, despite an overall shift toward the Democratic Party there is evidence of ongoing shifting of community voting in unhealthy communities toward the Republican party.

Local demographic changes and US presidential voting, 2012 to 2016

Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on nonelectoral outcomes or analyzed elections in large geographic units, such as counties. Here, we examine whether demographic changes at low levels of aggregation were associated with vote shifts toward an anti-immigration presidential candidate between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we compile a precinct-level dataset of election results and demographic measures for almost 32,000 precincts in the states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington. We employ regression analyses varying model specifications and measures of demographic change. Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or noncitizen immigrants benefited Trump relative to past Republicans, instead consistently showing that such changes were associated with shifts to Trump's opponent.

The Decline of Partisan Voting and the Rise in Electoral Uncertainty in South Africa’s 2019 General Elections

ABSTRACTSouth Africa’s democratic elections have produced highly stable and predictable outcomes, largely as a result of the slow pace of change in partisanship. However, a sudden decline in partisanship in the years before the 2019 General Elections was likely to have obvious and predictable effects on electoral behaviour. This article contends that the shrinkage in partisan loyalties manifested in a number of ways, notably through the poor performances of the two largest parties, higher abstentions, individual level vote shifts, vote splitting, and later-than-usual vote decisions. The decline in partisan loyalties also prompted a shift in the voter calculus, with many more voters preoccupied with the campaign and short-term party performance, issue and candidate evaluations, and far fewer with long-standing, traditional party loyalties. The overall effect of weakening partisanship increased the fluidity of voting behaviour and, in turn, increased the unpredictability of the 2019 electoral outcome.

¿IMPORTAN LAS CAMPAÑAS (EN LAS NUEVAS DEMOCRACIAS)? INTERÉS DE LA CAMPAÑA, ELECCIÓN DEL VOTO Y SATISFACCIÓN DE LA ENCUESTA

Based on data from presidential campaigns and original data from gubernatorial campaigns in Mexico, this paper finds that the proportion of respondents who provide consistent answers to the vote intention questions during the same survey interview increases as the campaign unfolds and interest in the campaign grows. These voters are less likely to connect their vote choice with their political predispositions and have a disproportionate likelihood to change their vote choice throughout the campaign. This gives the impression that campaigns are more consequential than they are, when, in fact, vote shifts are a function of voters’ increased motivation to engage in a survey interview.

Demographic Change, Threat, and Presidential Voting: Evidence from U.S. Electoral Precincts, 2012 to 2016

Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on non-electoral outcomes or has analyzed elections in large geographic units such as counties. Here, we examine whether demographic changes at low levels of aggregation were associated with vote shifts toward an anti-immigration presidential candidate between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we compile a novel, precinct-level data set of election results and demographic measures for more than 26,000 precincts in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. We employ regression analyses varying model specifications and measures of demographic change. Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or non-citizen immigrants benefitted Trump relative to past Republicans, and in fact suggest that these changes helped his opponent, Hillary Clinton.

Populist Success in a Hung Parliament: The 2018 General Election in Italy

ABSTRACTThe 2018 Italian general elections were a crucial test to assess the resilience of mainstream parties vis-à-vis the challenge provided by populist forces and the stabilisation of the tripolar party system emerged in 2013. The article analyses the outcome of the election, whose most remarkable result was the unprecedented success of two populist parties, the M5S and the Lega, by focusing on key aspects such as the new electoral system, the coalition-building process, the electoral campaign, the evolution of the Italian party system, and the analysis of vote shifts between parties.

The social stratification of the 2018 vote in Italy: between continuity and change

ABSTRACTThe massive vote shift in the 2018 elections, underlies a changed configuration of the social stratification of the vote. The end-result is one of an increased heterogeneity of the social bases of partisan support and of the contradictory social landscape parties are confronted with. Driven by the paramount salience of economic concerns among voters, labour market position and type of employment appear to be the main axes of stratification: self-employed voters massively supported the centre-right coalition and especially the Lega, attracted by the promise of huge tax cuts; but the Lega disproportionally attracted also manual workers with poor education. On the other hand, non-manual employees and skilled manual labour, with middle-level education, showed a clear propensity to vote for the M5s; which also revealed a huge appeal among unemployed, especially young, and inactive women. This social configuration of the vote is reflected in the clear-cut territorial divide of the vote: supremacy of the M5s in the Southern regions and predominance of the Lega in the North (and in some Central regions as well). The PD – the big loser of the elections in political terms --seems to have appealed especially to more socially established and secure social groups (Northerner, aged, educated employees and, above all, pensioners). This social stratification of the PD’s vote is not a surprise and is in line with a long-running trend. It signals the relative unattractiveness of the PD for those social groups which think they are bearing the brunt of globalization’s downside and feel inadequately protected and insecure in their daily lives.

Hope in Hard Times: Norvelt and the Struggle for Community during the Great Depression, The Mutual Housing Experiment: New Deal Communities for the Urban Middle Class

Hope in Hard Times: Norvelt and the Struggle for Community during the Great Depression, The Mutual Housing Experiment: New Deal Communities for the Urban Middle Class

Analysing Voting Inconsistency in the United Nations General Assembly

ABSTRACTIn many international institutions, contested norms pass via voting. Although votes express national positions, dynamic vote shifts are a widespread phenomenon. Why do states sometimes change their voting stances concerning re-occurring international rules and norms? To explain observed variation, this analysis theorises the role of domestic and external windows of opportunity as well as the role of lobbying in the United Nations General Assembly. It shows that changes in government composition and changes in the text of re-occurring international rules and norms matter. Yet, whilst resourceful actors more likely change their voting stance after having successfully negotiated text changes, less powerful states are more likely to shift voting stances in response to third party lobbying.

Push and pull forces in the UNGA: analyzing foreign policy change in the context of international norms

This paper proceeds from the observation that states at times change their foreign policy preferences vis-a-vis an international norm on reoccurring resolutions in the United Nations General Assembly. In order to explain this phenomenon, we utilize a push–pull approach capturing the impact of domestic (push) and international dynamics (pull) on foreign policy change concerning repeated international norms. The theoretical expectations are empirically examined in order to shed light on the causal pathways underlying foreign policy changes. To this end, the paper combines a descriptive analysis of over 150 UNGA resolutions with more than 50 interviews with diplomats and MFA members, an analysis of official documents and an examination of WikiLeaks material. The evidence illustrates that both domestic push and international pull factors account for shifting foreign policy positions on international norms. On the push side, we find that domestic political institutions, the norm context and state agency drive position change, whereas on the pull side, the international norm environment as well as the activities of third states and groups influence vote shifts. In addition, salience of the norm also matters, as high politics norms tend toward higher voting consistency, whereas states adjust foreign policies more frequently on resolutions concerning less-politicized low politics norms.

Citizens’ representation in the 2009 European Parliament elections

Political theorists maintain that citizens’ representation through elections is the cornerstone of democracy. However, many analysts claim that a deficit in democratic representation exists within the European Union. This research examines the ideological match between voters and their party using the 2009 European Election Study. Aggregate agreement between voters and their parties’ ideological position is very high, but agreement at the individual level is modest. Barely a majority of partisans favor the party that is closest to them on the Left–Right scale, and vote shifts to another party triples the representation gap. We model the factors affecting the size of this gap and voting for a nonproximate party. The results illustrate the representation gap that individual voters perceive in EU elections with implications for democratic representation.