The Decline of Partisan Voting and the Rise in Electoral Uncertainty in South Africa’s 2019 General Elections

Abstract

ABSTRACTSouth Africa’s democratic elections have produced highly stable and predictable outcomes, largely as a result of the slow pace of change in partisanship. However, a sudden decline in partisanship in the years before the 2019 General Elections was likely to have obvious and predictable effects on electoral behaviour. This article contends that the shrinkage in partisan loyalties manifested in a number of ways, notably through the poor performances of the two largest parties, higher abstentions, individual level vote shifts, vote splitting, and later-than-usual vote decisions. The decline in partisan loyalties also prompted a shift in the voter calculus, with many more voters preoccupied with the campaign and short-term party performance, issue and candidate evaluations, and far fewer with long-standing, traditional party loyalties. The overall effect of weakening partisanship increased the fluidity of voting behaviour and, in turn, increased the unpredictability of the 2019 electoral outcome.