Volume Of GDP Research Articles

Results of Economic Tendency Surveys in Nowcasting GDP Growth

The article proves the usefulness of including aggregate information from economic tendency surveys in the system of nowcasting of economic growth. The authors compare the efficiency of vector autoregressive models that include the economic sentiment indicator based on the results of Rosstat business activity and consumer expectations surveys, and the business climate indicator based on the results of the Bank of Russia enterprise monitoring.Statistical testing of time series of composite indicators and GDP volume index confirmed a significant correlation and causality between them, as well as the similarity of their cyclical profiles. Both indices pass cyclical turning points synchronously or ahead of the GDP volume index, their predictive capabilities are enhanced by the early availability of information. The capabilities of GDP growth nowcasting using survey information are assessed in three specifications of the vector autoregressive model with dummy variables. On the in-sample period, the model including two composite indicators and the GDP volume index demonstrates the highest accuracy.The proposed approach allows us to obtain flash estimates of GDP growth prospects that are significantly ahead of the official statistical information

FORECASTING THE INNOVATIVE AND DIGITAL STRENGTH OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY ON THE BASIS OF CORRELATION-REGRESS ANALYSIS

The purpose of the research is to present the realised forecasts of Ukraine's economic power in order to find reserves for the recovery of the national economy and opportunities for the formation of digital entrepreneurship on the basis of innovative functioning, which will lead to economic growth in the medium and long term. The object of scientific research is the expenditure on SRD and S&T development by types of work in Ukraine from 2010 to 2022 and the analysis of indicators of GDP the influence of time, employment and inflation factors; expansion of digital capabilities of entrepreneurship due to the conducted R&D, which will become a guarantee of the emergence of breakthrough innovations as one of the key reserves of innovative and digital development of the country during the war and post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Methodology. A study was conducted utilising dialectical, systematic, mathematical and statistical methods to investigate the R&D expenses by types of work in Ukraine from 2010 to 2022 and the GDP from 2011 to 2023. This analysis determined the prospective existing reserve of economic strength with positive dynamics and highlighted the necessity for a strategic format of digital business work based on innovation. A CRA was conducted to determine the strength of the relationship between SRD expenditures and time (i.e., a set of factors that consistently influence SRD funding and drive its growth trend). Fisher's test was calculated, and an econometric analysis was performed based on GDP indicators over 56 quarters, establishing the dependence of the GDP volume on the time factor and the cyclicality of seasonal fluctuations. Resluts. The conditions for accelerating the digitisation of business processes at domestic enterprises are, in particular, the presence of highly qualified S&R personnel, innovators and researchers in the country, the development of new institutes of innovative and digital development, and the transformation and adaptation of old institutes of development to the existing conditions. The obtained data of CRA show that there is a close relationship between the GDP of Ukraine and the time factor, and the direction of the relationship is direct, i.e., linear, which in this case is a positive fact. It is determined that in pursuit of the goal of restoring the innovative potential of the national economy in the post-war period and further active development of digital entrepreneurship in Ukraine, it is necessary to continue financial support for scientific research and scientific and technical developments carried out in various sectors of the economy. Practical implications. The analysed statistical data had a positive impact on the professionalism of the forecast calculations and allowed to state that in 2027, with a probability of error of 6.29%, the volume of expenditures on research and development is projected to range from 20,202.74 to 29,201.18 million UAH. The results of the CRA show that the multiple correlation coefficient (R) is 0.94, which indicates a close overall relationship between the country's GDP and three independent variables (inflation rate, unemployment rate, time factor). The linear regression equation fits the sample data well and the model is qualitative. The results of the forecast are as follows: Ukraine has the potential for post-war recovery and can develop models for post-war economic reconstruction and changes in its structure. Government officials can develop institutional instruments to attract investment and provide effective mechanisms for the future transformation of the existing labour market and human capital institution. Value / Originality. Having conducted a thorough analysis of the statistical data on the dynamics of spending on S&T development and implementation of the SRD in Ukraine in 2010-2022, the authors managed to determine the relative error of approximation – a criterion for assessing the reliability of the forecast, which amounted to 8.74% and considered the approximation to be qualitative, and the forecast for 2027 is reliable. It is determined that the regression equation is most accurate when R2 approaches its maximum value, that is, 1, and in this case, it is 0.9096, which is a good result and means that the linear regression equation fits the sample data well and the model is of high quality. And for Ukraine's economy, which is under martial law, such positive expectations for GDP and the possibility of increasing R&D spending give hope that Ukraine's economic strength is real, as confirmed by the forecast calculations.

Demographic Development of Russia within the Boundaries of Human Capital Theory: Problems and Solutions

The article outlines the role of the demographic situation in ensuring the development of the socio-economic system of the country. In the process of empirical research, the dynamics of the list of indicators characterizing the demographic situation in Russia is considered. The calculation of the absolute indicator of the population is presented, which allows to reveal of the numerical losses of human capital. The fact that the reduction of the country’s population was due to the population of rural areas was established. It is also noted that there was a constant increase in the number of population over working age, as well as a decrease in the working-age population. The decrease in the existing volumes of human capital has led to certain economic losses expressed in the form of lost GDP, which the socio-economic system has incurred. In the context of the above trends, the preservation of the existing human capital, which can be assessed on the basis of the dynamics of indicators: life expectancy and the number of marriages and divorces, becomes a priority. The processes of human capital reproduction represent one of the important directions of demographic development in Russia. The authors determined that these processes have a negatively directed tendency to change. This problem is considered from the position of the functioning of the family institution and the dynamics of the divorce process. An analytical study of statistical data allowed us to conclude that the intensity of marriages in Russia during ten years was higher than the intensity of divorces. The calculated value of the coefficient of preservation of family relations indicates an increase in the probability of reproduction of human capital. The authors calculated the numerical value of reserve human capital in the form of the volume of potential labor force, which can provide an additional volume of GDP.

АНАЛІЗ ПЕРСПЕКТИВ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ З ІНОЗЕМНИМИ ІНВЕСТИЦІЯМИ В УКРАЇНІ

Formulation of the problem. The post-war recovery of Ukraine requires attracting foreign investment. Attracting foreign direct investments will make it possible to ensure capital investments, annual direct contributions to the economy, new jobs, exports, acquisition of new skills and technologies, innovativeness of economic sectors. The aim of the research is to analyze modern prospects for the development of the process of foreign investment and the functioning of enterprises with foreign investments in Ukraine. The оbject of the research is theoretical and practical approaches to the attraction of foreign investments and the functioning of enterprises with foreign investments in Ukraine. The methods of the research: logical method, method of comparison, methods of induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, system analysis, correlation analysis. The hypothesis of the research. The volume of foreign investment is directly proportional to the volume of GDP, expenditure on education and labor force and inversely proportional to the income inequality level and unemployment level. The statement of basic materials. Correlation coefficients between the volume of foreign investment and the factors affecting this volume have been determined, which will allow influencing specific key indicators that most stimulate the inflow of foreign investment. The mechanism for attracting foreign investments is presented, covering strategic, intermediate and current goals, a list of forms, methods, objects and tools of influence. The practical significance of the research. The practical implementation of the proposed measures will make it possible to intensify the attraction of foreign investments in Ukrainian enterprises. Conclusions and perspectives of further research. The problem of attracting investments into the economy of Ukraine is related to the lack of motivation to invest, insufficient accumulation of resources by the main groups of investors, a wide outflow of capital abroad, etc. Unfavorable investment climate caused by military actions, occupation of territories and destruction of infrastructure, migration of experienced specialists abroad, extremely unstable economic situation in the country, slowdown of economic reforms, high level of corporate taxation, instability of legislation, corruption, low purchasing power of the population, low predictability of junctures of commodity and raw material markets, significant price fluctuations; imperfection of ownership and shareholding relations, becomes the main obstacle in attracting investments. However, there are undoubtedly attractive factors for investing in Ukraine's economy, including the attractive geographical position determined by the country's location in the center of Europe at the crossroads of trade routes, the presence of an educated workforce, as Ukraine has a very high intellectual and professional level of manufacturers. Also, labor is cheap. Ukraine has favorable conditions for the introduction of high technologies, which is facilitated by the presence of performers with a high intellectual level. Also, relatively cheap raw materials and energy resources, which contributes to the low cost of manufactured goods. The obtained results showed a high dependence between the amount of FDI and the level of GDP in the country (correlation coefficient is 0.82), and a direct interdependence was revealed, which means that with the growth of GDP, the amount of foreign investment will increase, which is logical, because with the growth of GDP, the country is investment attractive for a foreign investor. The high correlation between the volume of foreign investment and the availability of labor in the country (correlation coefficient is 0.79) means that the availability of labor, including skilled labor, is extremely important for the investor (this is also evidenced by the interdependence between FDI and state spending on education in the country ), since the ease of hiring employees and their productivity depend on it.

Possibilities of applying the cluster approach in the study of the stability of the regional territorial organisation of production areas


 
 
 Various assessment criteria are applied to ensure the sustainability of production sites. These evaluation criteria are based on quantitative indicators and reflect the corrected performance of production areas. Adequate assessment analyses the territorial organisation of production areas, efficient operation, process management, etc. more clearly in the future, and makes it possible to conduct their comparative analysis. One of the methods of such an approach is the cluster. A cluster is a group of objects with similar properties. In English, cluster means bunch, gathering, concentration, and group. From this point of view, the for- mation of the infrastructure organised in connection with the production, which contributes to the increase of competitiveness between the production areas, and the application of an innovative cluster approach are required in this research work. This approach allows the creation of a new product, increases production efficiency, and helps form a sustainable production network. This article presents the analysis of the GDP in Azerbaijan in the period of 1995-2021 carried out taking into account the ratio of the AZN to the US dollar, calculates the volume of GDP per capita, determines the regional trend of economic development, and provides the variability of the dynamics in the fields of the economy in a related manner. Later, all these indicators were summarised, clustering was carried out, coefficient values of quantitative indicators for production areas were determined, and indicators of clustering of production areas for economic regions of Azerbaijan were calculated. Consequentially, the article concludes that the application of the regional cluster approach indicates the potential power of production enterprises, the scale of their activities, economic-geographical relations, etc., which makes it possible to increase regional competitiveness between production areas. Thus, the cluster approach determines competitive advantages related to the organisation and operation of production, stimulates regional development, and can also lead to an increase in revenues to the local budget.
 
 

Analysis and assessment of the quality of economic growth in Ukraine based on international ratings.

To confront the multidimensional challenges and crises of the 21st Century and to bring about transformative changes in the economy, policymakers need a tool that assesses the quality of economic growth in terms of both factors affecting productivity and consequences for people’s livelihoods and the environment. It is recognized that GDP alone is not sufficient to measure progress towards socially and economically inclusive, equitable and sustainable development. On behalf of the UN Secretary General, studies “beyond GDP” are carried out, aimed at updating and supplementing the UN System of National Accounts – 2008. There is also an update of the international organizations approaches to conduct rating studies of the countries based on balanced systems of indicators of well-being and progress, inclusive and sustainable development. The analysis of the results of such studies made it possible to conclude that in the conditions of worsening systemic risks, the assessment of the quality of economic growth in the country requires a comprehensive multidimensional system of indicators. It should cover, in addition to the volume of GDP per capita and the productivity factors, indicators of the quality of human capital, environmental sustainability, the quality of the management system, in particular, the regulatory and legal framework that forms the long-term development trajectory, the business environment and infrastructure, thereby influencing innovativeness, inclusiveness and resilience of society to shocks and threats. To assess the quality of economic growth in Ukraine, an analysis of the country’s position based on indicators of the economic policy impact on innovativeness, inclusiveness, stability and sustainability was carried out using the materials of the Future of Growth Report 2024 and the Sustainable Competitiveness Report 2023. Drivers and obstacles for the balanced development of Ukraine’s economy are identified, especially the low management capacity for changes towards inclusiveness, stability and sustainability. Proposals have been made to expand the range of indicators for evaluating the innovativeness and sustainability of economic growth in Ukraine, in particular for evaluating the results of the implementation of the Strategy for the Development of Innovation Activity for the period until 2030.

Socio-Economic Development of Tibet in the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001–2005). Part 8

Fourth session of the 9th NPC, held in Beijing from March 5 to 15, 2001, approved the draft of the 10th five-year plan (2001–2005). The plan provided for an annual increase in China's GDP by 7 %. At the same time, the volume of the economy over five years was to increase by 40 % and amount to ¥ 12.5 trillion in 2005. Plan targets were largely met and exceeded. The average annual economic growth rate was 9.5 %, significantly higher than the world average (3.8 %). The volume of GDP in 2005 amounted to ¥ 18.2 billion.The standard of living in Tibet in the years under review was about two times lower than the Chinese average. Therefore, the region was provided with advanced growth rates of 12 % per year. The main event of the five-year plan in Tibet was the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet railway.

Examining the Dynamics Between Gross Domestic Product Fluctuations and Consumer Sentiment Shifts

This work presents how changes in the economic climate have affected consumer sentiment. Changes in the volume of GDP, industrial production, total consumption, consumption in the household sector and capital accumulation between 2018 and 2022 were analysed on a quarterly basis. The values of the main indicators reflecting consumer sentiment are also presented: the current consumer confidence index and the leading consumer confidence index. The consumer confidence indicators are also presented at the end of the individual quarters from 2018 to 2022. The results show that consumers observe the changing economic reality and do not always assess these changes positively, even if the effect of these changes indicate an increase in GDP.

Leadership of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs), Inflation and Economics Development in Nigeria (1981-2021)

One of the important components of economic development which contributes to the growth of the population employment level is the increase in the country’s export potential, development of domestic market of goods and services and small and medium – sized entrepreneurship. It plays special role in the filling of state budget in countries with low and medium level of economic development. The purpose of this paper is to model the relationship between the level of economic development of the country as an indicator of the functioning of small and medium- sized enterprises, assessment of the impact of inflation on the level of economic development. The information base of the research is the data of the World Bank, National Bureau of Statistics of Nigeria, and annual statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The object of the study is indicators of the functioning of small and medium-sized enterprises and economic development in Nigeria, the period of study is 1981-2021. As dependent variables characterized by the development of a small and medium- sized enterprise, the volume of income per unit of capital was chosen and the GDP was chosen as an indicator of the country’s economic development. Factor variables are characterized by the relationship between the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and the economic development of Nigeria. These include gross capital formation, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate. The methodological tools for researching the relationship between the analyzed indicators are the method of estimating the autoregressive distributed lag, the extended Dickey Fuller test and Granger test. According to the results of econometric modeling, the negative impacts of the growth of the exchange rate and the level of inflation on the development of the Nigerian economy has been proven. Thus, a 1% increase in exchange rate would lead to a 0.01% decrease in GDP, while a 0.01% decrease in inflation would be accompanied by an increase in GDP of about 1%. At the same time, gross capital formation exerts a positive and statistically significant influence on the volume of GDP (an increase of 1% will lead to an increase of GDP by approximately 7%). Based on the results of the research, it was concluded that stimulating the growth of investment in small and medium- sized enterprises by simplifying access to credit resources, infrastructure development and capacity building is a prerequisite for long- term socio- economic development of Nigerians.

Labor Productivity and Increasing the Efficiency of National Economic Systems: Cross-Country Comparison

The problem of measuring the efficiency of social production is inseparable from the problem of measuring labor productivity. The efficiency of the production use of material resources, expressed as the ratio of the useful result of labor directly to its corresponding costs, reflected in the physical volume of GDP of the countries of the world, is presented in the work as labor productivity. The author selected 12 different countries. The necessary statistical indicators was recalculated from material resources to labor. Using factorial and correlation-regression analysis, the problem of quantitative assessment (in weight terms) and its interpretation as a measure of labor productivity impact on the efficiency of the economies of a number of countries in 2011–2020 is solved. The results of the study confirmed the hypotheses, providing increase in the role of labor productivity in achieving the efficiency of using the production resources in national economic systems. It was empirically proven that national economic systems that differ not in the maximum amount of resources, but in the most balanced combination of different types of resources involved, have a relatively greater efficiency. The place of Russia as an economy characterized by the optimal value of the effect of social production equal to one is noted, which contributes to the relatively successful development of its economic system, subject to active structural restructuring of the economy in favor of sectors that increase labor productivity.

THE ROLE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD

In most countries of the world, entrepreneurship is a powerful engine of economic and social development. Currently, entrepreneurs are playing an increasingly significant role in the socio-economic life of most developed economies in the world. They solve the most important problems of the development of society, increase the efficiency of functioning of all sectors of the economy, create jobs and stimulate employment, and ensure the use of innovative technologies in production processes. Modern business is based on the risky activities of entrepreneurs, their initiative and responsibility, their use of their intellectual and professional qualities. Entrepreneurship is the driving force behind the growth of business activity in most countries of the world. Each of them has its own characteristics of organizing and conducting small, medium and large businesses. This is due to the general macroeconomic situation in the country, the volume of GDP, the political situation in the country and the world, internal and external trade relations, and government policies to promote the development of the enterprise sector.

MACROECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING ON THE REORGANIZATION OF BANKS IN THE CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC IMBALANCES

Іn the context of increasing economic imbalances, the goals of bank reorganization are being transformed and are acquiring new content, which increases the relevance of macroeconomic factors. The article is aimed at identifying the impact of macroeconomic factors on the choice of reorganization method by building a neural network like the Kohonen map. A cluster analysis method has been applied to build a neural network of the type of self-organization maps of Kohonen. As a result, has allowed four clusters. The first cluster includes developing countries. The most common methods are M&A agreements and buyback operations. Among the priority factors of influence are a high level of GDP per capita, a growing share of the urban population, and significant tax revenues. The second cluster includes developing countries, for which consolidation methods such as partial absorption, and acquisition of fixed assets are a priority. Among the main factors influencing, it is worth highlighting commodity trade, inflation, and the GDP deflator. The third cluster includes highly developed, developing countries, for which the dominance of share buyback agreements, which is primarily related to the share of foreign direct investments, the volume of GDP and the volume of tax revenues. The fourth cluster includes mainly developed countries, that are not included in the third cluster. Due to the determining influence of significant volumes of domestic crediting, foreign direct investments, GDP and a significant share of gross accumulation, practically all methods of reorganization are common in these countries (M&A, buybacks can be singled out among the most common transactions).

Assessment of the Regions Functioning Based on Production Functions with the Above Cost Factors

When modeling the growth of a regional economy by means of production functions, a problem arises of choosing models, factors and methods for adjusting cost characteristics in order to obtain adequate and accurate models, as well as the formation of integral and partial indicators of performance that provide a correct assessment and analysis of the performance of the regions of Russia. Such a problem becomes especially significant if the models are adequate and accurate, and, consequently, the process under study is invariant with respect to the models, factors and calculation methods used. The aim of the study is to estimate the results of the regions' performance on the basis of production functions, provided that the process of changing the volume of GDP by region is invariant with respect to models, factors and methods of bringing them to a comparable form when modeling the growth of the Russia regional economy. The hypothesis of the investigation is the invariance of the process of the change of the volume of GDP by region relative to the models, factors and methods used to bring the cost indicators to a comparable form. The study used data on the CFD regions (2007–2020). As a result, five models were constructed, the factors of which were calculated in five different ways, taking into account both price changes and average annual characteristics. It was determined that partial indicators have similar dynamics. At the same time, statistical tests and the author's methodology for choosing a model that would take into account the priorities of regional development did not allow for identifying the best of them. This allowed us to conclude that the process under study is invariant with respect to the models and correction techniques used. To solve the problem of choosing models for evaluating the regions' performance results, it is proposed that an integral performance indicator should be applied that summarizes the calculation methods used. This would reduce the influence of subjectivity of such a choice. The theoretical significance lies in the possibility of applying the methodology to form integral and partial indicators of performance for arbitrary socio-economic systems. The practical significance of the conducted research lies in the fact that the results obtained can be used to design activities that would be aimed at ensuring the CFD regions' sustainable development.

ПОРІВНЯЛЬНИЙ АНАЛІЗ СТРУКТУРИ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ І ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ НА МАЙБУТНЄ

The complex conditions of today's Ukraine lead to the need for a thorough analysis of the economic state of our country in order to forecast and plan its development prospects. Among the popular models of the economy regarding the structural analysis of its components is the sectoral model. The leading sector of the economy of highly developed European countries is the service sector. It employs 65% of the economically active population. Institutions of the service sector create about 70% of the GDP of the countries of the European Union and the contribution of the service sector to the economic growth of Europe exceeds the contribution of industry. Countries with transition economies are at the industrial or industrial-agrarian stage of development. The share of industry in the structure of the national income of these countries is on average from 45 to 60%. In most countries, the secondary sector of the economy prevails. The question regarding the dynamics of changes in the economy of Ukraine in recent years is relevant. That is why we chose three years (2019-2021) and part of 2022 year to study using mathematical methods of statistics different sectors of the economy (primary sector (agro-industrial sector), secondary sector (industry), tertiary sector (services)). So, based on the received data, it can be concluded that in the sectoral model of the economy of Ukraine, the primary sector of the economy accounts for 20.06% of the total volume of GDP, the secondary sector accounts for 21.16% of the total volume of GDP and the tertiary sector currently provides 58.43% of Ukraine's GDP. Therefore, it can be concluded that the sectoral model of our country's economy is significantly different from the model of highly developed countries, where the share of the tertiary sector is more than 70%, and the primary sector is of 2-6% and accordingly Ukraine can be classified as a country with a transition economy. A comparison of the import-export component of Ukraine with the USA emphasizes the raw material component of Ukraine's exports and the need to develop the processing industry of the economy with an emphasis on the features of the leading positions of Ukraine in such areas as the IT industry, where Ukraine occupies one of the leading places in the world. The practical value of the presented materials is to study the structural components of the Ukrainian economy on the basis of current statistics with subsequent conclusions when compared with the economies of leading countries for the prospects of successful economic development of the Ukrainian economy in the future.

Short-term forecasting of gross domestic product

In the article, a set of appropriate model tools was developed and presented, which allows to assess the relationship between the economic confidence index and GDP, calculated on the main types of economic activity, and to make a short-term forecast on GDP. The research examines the main hypothesis about the cyclical sensitivity of the composite indices, especially the economic confidence index in relation to the dynamics of the physical volume of GDP. The authors calculate a composite index of aggregate economic confidence and, based on a consistent analysis of the relationship between the index of the physical volume of GDP and the index of economic confidence, have determined aggregate empirical regularities and characteristics of its cyclical development. The nature of the Economic Confidence Index calculated in the work was determined, and its forecasting capabilities for monthly and annual real growth rates of GDP were studied using autoregression and seasonal filters. The authors used the DEMETRA+ statistical package.

ОЦЕНКА НАЛОГОВОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ И ЕЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА СОСТОЯНИЕ БЮДЖЕТНОЙ СИСТЕМЫ

The article provides an assessment of tax policy on the formation of the revenue side of the federal budget of the Russian Federation. An analysis of the dynamics of execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation and forecast indicators for 2024-2026 is presented; oil and gas and non-oil and gas revenues were analyzed by source of revenue; share of oil and gas revenues in the structure of the federal budget of the Russian Federation; economic growth according to forecast data and forecast GDP volume. The author investigated from what sources the revenue part of the federal budget of the Russian Federation will be formed in 2023 and in the forecast years 2024-2026. It was revealed that the federal budget of the Russian Federation will depend on the raw materials sector, which characterizes our economy as a raw materials economy.

China’s long-term goals: a historic leap towards the economic power and a society of universal prosperity

The article analyses results of the 13th Five Year Plan of the PRC social and economic development (2016–2020), forecasted indices of the 14th Five Year Plan and approximated indices for 2035. In spite of COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 China managed to reach evident economic successes. The GDP volume was 101.6 trillion yuan in 2020 and exceeded the target of 2020 in comparison with 2000, which should have been four times more. By 2021 – the centenary of the CPC Chinese leadership eliminated poverty 10 years earlier than the UN planned for the whole world – 2030 and built society of small prosperity. In 2021 – the first year of the 14th Five Year Plan thr GDP growth rates was 8,1% per year and the GDP was 114.6 trillion yuan in 2021. The author of the article came to the conclusion, that if China fulfill its programs for the 14th Five Year Plan and keep the GDP growth rates 5,5–6,0% per annum by 2035, it would be possible for China to chase the USA by the GDP volume in US dollars by exchange rate. The results of the first year of the 14th Five Year Plan prove us, that the PRC could fulfill its goals of social and economic development as earlier by 2000 and 2020.

Estimating Ukraine’s financial losses from the war

Military aggression has caused many adverse consequences in various spheres of Ukrainian society, including significant losses in the economy. In such circumstances, it is relevant to calculate financial losses to determine the necessary amount of aid and investment for post-war economic recovery. The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the war on the dynamics of key economic indicators and to calculate the financial losses of the state. To achieve this purpose, the research makes a forecast assessment of macroeconomic indicators. To determine the level of GDP decline, the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Ukrainian government were considered. The assessment of the expected level of decline is based on the regional structure of GDP production. The losses were estimated as the difference between the “pre-war” level of the indicator and the projected values of the indicators obtained after considering the impact of the war. It is established that military aggression is the reason for the reduction in the volume of GDP produced, which in the future will significantly reduce tax revenues, consolidated budget revenues, and the number of financial resources redistributed by the state. The author notes that among the consequences of war are direct losses (those that can be estimated in monetary terms) and indirect losses (lost opportunities that cannot be expressed in monetary terms). The author outlines the consequences of the war in the future. It is determined that the cause of long-term adverse effects is an increase in the level of public debt, depreciation of the national currency, reduction of gold and foreign exchange reserves, and outflow of foreign direct investment. The results of the study are intended to be used by public authorities, financial policymakers, academics, and potential investors. In addition, they can serve as a foundation for determining the number of reparations that Ukraine will claim after the war is over.

Implementation of 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) In Georgia – Main Changes And Challenges

In the process of active globalization, an important task of the economic agenda of any country is to ensure mutual comparability of statistical indicators. This can be achieved through the implementation of internationally approved methodologies and modern standards. The System of National Accounts is at the top of the economic pyramid. The implementation of SNA 2008 was envisaged by the Association Agreement with the European Union. In 2008, the United Nations, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development jointly released The System of National Accounts, 2008 (2008 SNA). This update better reflects the changing economic landscape and the advances in methodological research, data sources and compilation methods and provides clarification on a number of issues not clearly stated in the 1993 SNA. Timely, relevant and comprehensive national account information is a significant intellectual asset for any country, and serves important functions. Like any asset the national accounts depreciate with time. Therefore, periodic new investments are crucial, to ensure that they continue to provide high quality services to their users. Implementing 2008 SNA improved the relevance of a country’s national accounts information. In the new version of SNA, changes were introduced in various directions: updates in calculation methods, improvement of data sources, introduction of an international approach to the coverage of the economy and other methodological changes, which include the introduction of new classifications, the use of the accrual method for taxes, a change in the base period (instead of 2010, the base period 2015 is used instead of the period) and many others. Updated calculation methods were introduced in the following direction: Changes in the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM); Improving the calculation of Imputed Rent of Own Occupied Dwellings; Capitalization of costs related to Research and Development (R&D) and others. The factor of improving the data source should also be emphasized. In this regard, it is worth noting: updating the structure of intermediate consumption on the basis of a special surveys; Special survey conducted in various sectors of economy, such as agriculture, construction, hotels and restaurants and ect. Other methodological changes include also the use of new classifications, change of the base year (2015 instead of 2010). During the implementation of new standards and methodologies, many countries face a number of challenges. In many ways, national accounts data represent an important part of a country's economic history. Of course, it is more acceptable for users to have a continuous and consistent time series, which simplifies its use in economic modeling. However, as already mentioned, this process is associated with certain difficulties, among which access to historical rows of updated data sources is noteworthy. In such cases, they need to develop models that put new concepts and methodologies into historical perspective. In order to harmonize with the indicators of the previous period, Georgia has recalculated the historical data series since 2010. The introduction of the new methodology and the above-mentioned updates caused changes in the total volume of GDP. During the implementation of new methodologies and standards, and therefore the recalculation of historical dynamic series, another important challenge is to inform users about all changes and how each change affected the main macroeconomic indicators. At the same time, users should understand that the change of methodologies and their implementation in practice is an ongoing process by which the country strives to comply with international standards. This is vitally necessary to ensure continuity of the country's integration into the world economic system and future sustainable development. Keywords: The System of National Accounts 2008, Financial Intermediate Service Indirectly Measured (FISIM), Non-observed economy, Research and Development (R&D).

Current starting position for the development of the Russian economy

Subject. The article considers the impact of sanctions on various sectors of the Russian economy. Objectives. The focus is on the analysis of risks of the Russian economy destabilization. Methods. The study employs methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. I highlight important and significant indicators determining the current economic situation in Russia. They include overdue wage arrears, consumer price index, indices of physical volume of GDP and industrial production, funds on escrow accounts of individuals. Conclusions. The results of the study can be used in the development of programs for structural transformation of the Russian economy.