Short-term forecasting of gross domestic product

Abstract

In the article, a set of appropriate model tools was developed and presented, which allows to assess the relationship between the economic confidence index and GDP, calculated on the main types of economic activity, and to make a short-term forecast on GDP. The research examines the main hypothesis about the cyclical sensitivity of the composite indices, especially the economic confidence index in relation to the dynamics of the physical volume of GDP. The authors calculate a composite index of aggregate economic confidence and, based on a consistent analysis of the relationship between the index of the physical volume of GDP and the index of economic confidence, have determined aggregate empirical regularities and characteristics of its cyclical development. The nature of the Economic Confidence Index calculated in the work was determined, and its forecasting capabilities for monthly and annual real growth rates of GDP were studied using autoregression and seasonal filters. The authors used the DEMETRA+ statistical package.