Volcanic Crisis Research Articles

Strategies for the development of volcanic hazard maps in monogenetic volcanic fields: the example of La Palma (Canary Islands)

Traditionally volcanic-hazard assessments have been applied to stratovolcanoes, where volcanic hazard maps represent important tools for volcanic crisis management and land-use planning. In recent years, several improvements have been made for monogenetic volcanic fields focused on, among other things, the development of spatial models to deal with one of the main problems in these areas, namely the unknown vent location. However, volcanic hazard maps of monogenetic volcanic fields present some significant differences with respect to those developed for stratovolcanoes, including the fact that they commonly represent multiple eruptive processes spread over the possible vent opening area. Likewise, the scientific communication of the volcanic-hazard assessment and how this information is comprehended are critical issues in the development of mitigation strategies for monogenetic volcanic fields.In this research, we focused on developing volcanic hazard maps using simple numerical hazard models in combination with a random approach for vent location to cover the whole vent opening area. We added some spatial methods to better manage potentially affected areas. The maps were designed for use in a digital environment (Geographic Information System) by Civil Protection professionals in high-risk monogenetic volcanic fields on small oceanic islands. The methodology presented does not use susceptibility base maps for hazard assessment to avoid possible underestimation of low probability areas by Civil Protection. The methodology represents an attempt to respond to the most important questions of where, when and how a new eruption might take place in a monogenetic volcanic field. The example presented here was developed for La Palma (Canary Islands).

The 2017\u201319 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia): Intense unrest, monitoring, crisis response, evacuation, and eruption

After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. Although the seismic unrest peaked in late September and early October, the volcano did not start erupting until 21 November. The most intense explosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred between 25 and 29 November. Smaller infrequent explosions and extrusions continue through the present (June 2019). The delay between intense unrest and eruption caused considerable challenges to emergency responders, local and national governmental agencies, and the population of Bali near the volcano, including over 140,000 evacuees. This paper provides an overview of the volcanic activity at Mount Agung from the viewpoint of the volcano observatory and other scientists responding to the volcanic crisis. We discuss the volcanic activity as well as key data streams used to track it. We provide evidence that magma intruded into the mid-crust in early 2017, and again in August of that year, prior to intrusion of an inferred dike between Mount Agung and Batur Caldera that initiated an earthquake swarm in late September. We summarize efforts to forecast the behavior of the volcano, to quantify exclusion zones for evacuations, and to work with emergency responders and other government agencies to make decisions during a complex and tense volcanic crisis.

Seismically Induced Soft‐Sediment Deformation Phenomena During the Volcano‐Tectonic Activity of Campi Flegrei Caldera (Southern Italy) in the Last 15 kyr

AbstractWe report, for the first time, evidence of seismically induced soft‐sediment deformations in the central area of the active Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy). We analyzed the marine‐transitional and continental sequences located along the coastal La Starza cliffs and several stratigraphic logs exposed during the excavation of a 1‐km‐long tunnel in the Pozzuoli area. The successions host several soft‐sediment structures including sand dikes and sand volcanoes, which are largely dated within the 4.55‐ to 4.28‐kyr BP interval. The volcano‐sedimentary sequence, deposited within the Campi Flegrei caldera in the last 15 kyr, is schematically formed by the superposition of three layers with different rheological behaviors; from the base progressing upward we recognize (1) a massive tuff, (2) marine‐transitional sands of the La Starza unit, and (3) a dominance of continental volcanoclastics. We envisage that during unrest episodes of the volcano, which included ground deformation and seismic activity, the whole volcano‐sedimentary pile was deformed through brittle mechanisms with the formation of normal faults. However, the intermediate layer, when subject to seismic shaking, behaved locally as a viscous material facilitating liquefaction processes and lateral spreading deformation. Furthermore, new geophysical, stratigraphic, and structural surveys allowed us to model the deformation evolution of this area over the last 15 kyr. The evidence of seismically induced soft‐sediment deformation within the volcano‐sedimentary record suggests that moderate earthquakes could occur during future volcano‐seismic unrests. Consequently, liquefaction and related gravitational mass movements must be considered as a hazard during these unrest and volcanic crises.

Development of a Data Sharing System for Japan Volcanological Data Network

In Japan, a number of universities, research institutes, and administrative organizations continue to conduct observations on volcanoes according to their respective roles. They also promote the distribution and sharing of observation data and have collaborated with each other. Japan Volcanological Data Network (JVDN) is a framework that strengthens this cooperation, promotes volcano research, and contributes to volcanic disaster mitigation. In this paper, we report the overview, progress, tasks, and future prospects of the system being developed for JVDN that was initiated in 2016. The observational data collected from each organization is stored in a database and shared using visualization tools to promote collaborative research, (e.g., multi-disciplinary research for eruption prediction) and cooperation between organizations. Furthermore, this database will contribute to volcanic disaster mitigation measures through collaboration between the volcano research community and administrative organizations responsible for volcanic crisis management. Adaptation to the standards of the international WOVOdat database will also promote cooperation with research institutes worldwide.

Should we stay or should we go now? Factors affecting evacuation decisions at Pacaya volcano, Guatemala

The current paper reports the results of a survey on past and future evacuation decision-making in response to a volcanic eruption (or the threat thereof) at Pacaya volcano, Guatemala. In 2010, Pacaya experienced its largest eruption in over half a century, causing more than 2500 evacuations and resulting in the damage or destruction of hundreds of homes, injuries to dozens of people, and the death of one journalist. Despite a pronounced increase in eruptive activity and the high threat of injury or death, many residents surrounding Pacaya volcano chose to stay in their homes throughout the eruption event. Our study seeks to understand why some households ignored social cues, physical hazards, and evacuation messages, and instead chose to stay in harm's way during a volcanic crisis. Using data obtained from a door-to-door survey conducted in the Pacaya region in October 2016, we found that evacuation behavior during the 2010 eruption was influenced most strongly by one's exposure to hazards, perception of hazards, and perception of readiness. We also found that prior evacuation experience from the 2010 eruption, perceptions of home vulnerability, and warning messages all have a strong influence on one's intention to evacuate in a future volcanic crisis. Finally, we found that perceived risk to one's home or property may have less of an impact on evacuation intention than emergency personnel tend to assume. Building on these findings, we discuss ways to improve evacuation communication in the face of a future eruption.

Impact interaction of in-flight high-energy molten volcanic ash droplets with jet engines

The turbine technology incorporated in jet engines is inherently vulnerable to attack by environmental silicate debris. Amongst the various kinds of such debris, volcanic ash is a particular threat as its glass softens to a liquid at temperatures of 500–800 °C, far below jet engine operating temperatures of ∼1500 °C. As a result, ingested re-molten droplets impact and form splats on the protective thermal barrier coatings (TBCs). Investigation of the damage to jet engines ensuing from this process has, to date been restricted to forensic observations after critical encounters. Here, we employ a thermal spray technology to recreate the ‘in-situ’ generation of molten volcanic ash droplets and observe their morphological evolution and interaction with TBCs. The mechanism of splat formation is found to depend both on substrate topography and on in-flight droplet characteristics, whereby splat circularity increases with surface roughness and with the product of the Weber and Reynolds numbers. The experiments reveal that the molten ash droplet adhesion rate is dictated by droplet temperature and viscosity, ash concentration and substrate roughness. A new dimensionless number, S, is developed to quantify the molten ash droplet adhesion rate to both substrate topography and in-flight droplet characteristics. These findings provide a greatly improved basis for the quantification of the hazard potential of volcanic ash to jet engines and should be incorporated into protocols for operational aviation response during volcanic crises.

Understanding Lava Flow Morphologies and Structures for Hazard Assessment

Lava flow surface morphologies are like pages of a book. If we are able to read the writing of that book, we can understand its content, and learn, act, and react accordingly. In the same way, if we understand lava surface morphology, recognise how it formed and the hazard it poses while flowing, we can adopt actions to protect from lava flow invasion our villages, infrastructures and local population. The surface of lava is a function of intrinsic and extrinsic qualities, and their combination results in different shapes, sizes, and complexities, as well as in different hazards. Initial sheet flows spreading at high speed have great potential for devastating land, as happened in Hawaii in August 2018. However, their destructive potential significantly decreases with time and distance from the vent. Conversely, lava oozing from the far exit of lava tubes moves slowly but allows the tubes to expand, increasing gradually and slowly the potential hazard for invasion of more remote lands. In this paper, I present an overview of diverse lava flow surfaces, morphologies and structures in a framework of their generating eruptive parameters, in order to suggest preliminary but prompt hazard evaluations that could be applied during the initial phases of effusive volcanic crises at basaltic volcanoes worldwide.

Volcanic Cloud Top Height Estimation Using the Plume Elevation Model Procedure Applied to Orthorectified Landsat 8 Data. Test Case: 26 October 2013 Mt. Etna Eruption

In this study, we present a method for extracting the volcanic cloud top height (VCTH) as a plume elevation model (PEM) from orthorectified Landsat 8 data (Level 1). A similar methodology was previously applied to raw Landsat-8 data (Level 0). But level 0 data are not the standard product provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/United States Geological Survey (USGS). Level 0 data are available only on demand and consist on 14 data stripes multiplied by the number of multispectral bands. The standard product for Landsat 8 is the ortho image, available free of charge for end-users. Therefore, there is the need to adapt our previous methodology to Level 1 Landsat data. The advantages of using the standard Landsat products instead of raw data mainly include the fast -ready to use- availability of the data and free access to registered users, which is of major importance during volcanic crises. In this study, we adapt the PEM methodology to the standard Landsat-8 products, with the aim of simplifying the procedure for routine monitoring, offering an opportunity to produce PEM maps. In this study, we present the method. Our approach is applied to the 26 October 2013 Mt. Etna episodes comparing results independent VCTH measures from the spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI) and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS).

Real-Time Geophysical Monitoring of Particle Size Distribution During Volcanic Explosions at Stromboli Volcano (Italy)

Of all the key parameters needed to inform forecast models, real-time tracking particle size distribution (PSD) of pyroclasts leaving the vent coupled with plume modeling has probably the highest potential for effective management of volcanic crises. This paper presents an algorithm capable of providing syn-emission horizontal size and velocity of particles in real time, converted in mass discharge rates, and its evolution during an explosion, using thermal infrared videos. We present data on explosions that occurred at the SW crater of Stromboli volcano (Italy) in 2012. PSDs and mass eruption rate data, collected at frequencies of 40 Hz, are then coupled with particle and gas speed data collected with traditional image analysis techniques. The dataset is used to quantify the dynamics of the explosions and magma fragmentation. We find that explosive evacuation of magma from a Strombolian conduit during a single explosion proceeds at a constant rate while the explosive dynamics are marked by a pattern that includes an initial transient and short phase until the system stabilizes at equilibrium. These stationary conditions dominate the emission. All explosions begin with a gas jet (onset phase), with maximum recorded vertical velocities above 150 m/s. These high velocities are for small particles carried by the faster-moving gas or pressure wave, and larger particles typically have slower velocities. The gas jets are followed by a particle-loaded plume. The particles increase in number until the explosion dynamics become almost constant (in the stationary phase). Mass eruption rate is either stable or increases during the onset to become stable in the stationary phase. The shearing at the interface between the magma and the gas jets controls fragmentation dynamics and particles sizes. Quantification of the Reynolds and Weber numbers suggest that the fragmentation regime changes during an explosion to affect particle shape. This method relates to lapilli and bomb-dominated emissions associated with low energy primary fragmentation. In general terms, its applicability is limited by the size of individual pixels recorded by the camera, which depends on the detector, the recording distance and the optical system, particle temperature, which has to be significantly higher than the background.

Role of Emissivity in Lava Flow ‘Distance-to-Run’ Estimates from Satellite-Based Volcano Monitoring

Remote sensing is an established technological solution for bridging critical gaps in volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation. The enormous amount of remote sensing data available today at a range of temporal and spatial resolutions can aid emergency management in volcanic crises by detecting and measuring high-temperature thermal anomalies and providing lava flow propagation forecasts. In such thermal estimates, an important role is played by emissivity—the efficiency with which a surface radiates its thermal energy at various wavelengths. Emissivity has a close relationship with land surface temperatures and radiant fluxes, and it impacts directly on the prediction of lava flow behavior, as mass flux estimates depend on measured radiant fluxes. Since emissivity is seldom measured and mostly assumed, we aimed to fill this gap in knowledge by carrying out a multi-stage experiment, combining laboratory-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analyses, remote sensing data, and numerical modeling. We tested the capacity for reproducing emissivity from spaceborne observations using ASTER Global Emissivity Database (GED) while assessing the spatial heterogeneity of emissivity. Our laboratory-satellite emissivity values were used to establish a realistic land surface temperature from a high-resolution spaceborne payload (ETM+) to obtain an instant temperature–radiant flux and eruption rate results for the 2001 Mount Etna (Italy) eruption. Forward-modeling tests conducted on the 2001 ‘aa’ lava flow by means of the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata code produced differences of up to ~600 m in the simulated lava flow ‘distance-to-run’ for a range of emissivity values. Given the density and proximity of urban settlements on and around Mount Etna, these results may have significant implications for civil protection and urban planning applications.

Numerical simulation of block-and-ash flows for different eruptive scenarios of the Tacaná Volcanic Complex, México-Guatemala

The Tacaná Volcanic Complex (TVC), shared by México and Guatemala, is considered an active volcano that resumed phreatic explosions in 1949 and 1986. The TVC has recorded at least eight eruptions emplacing block-and-ash flows (BAFs) around the volcanic edifice during the past 42,000 years. The largest event generated the Mixcun deposit some 1950 yr B.P. from San Antonio Volcano, the youngest structure of the complex. Based on the eight mapped BAF deposits of the complex, we perform numerical simulations with the TITAN2d code to recreate the distribution and extent of these deposits. The results were used to prepare the zonation of the TVC based on the surface bed friction angles, which are related to the different morphologies of the volcano. From this zonation and the features of the past BAF deposits, we define three new eruptive impact scenarios (low, medium and high), to perform a hazard assessment of this phenomenon but considering the present morphology of the complex of the four eruptive centers. Next, we ranged the input parameters for each case scenario to analyze the dispersal, thickness and maximum runout of simulated flows. From the numerical simulations, we found that the most influential parameter in the model outputs is the basal friction angle, which varied from 23° to 12°. Then, we merged the eruptive scenarios simulated to construct new hazard maps for the different mass volumes simulated for each scenario. These maps clearly evidenced that the Mexican territory would be seriously affected in case of a renewed explosive activity of the TVC. In fact, even the partial collapse of any of the TVC domes would produce BAFs capable to flow over ~70 communities affecting ca. 20,000 inhabitants, as well as promote the generation of syn-and-post eruptive lahars if they flow into the main rivers that drain the volcano. Therefore, these maps are a great advance to evaluate the destructive potential of the TVC and must serve as the basis for the construction of a new risk map by the local authorities to update the operative and evacuation plans of the region. These actions would help to the >350,000 inhabitants living in a 35 km radius from the volcano's summit to be aware of the perils posed by the volcano, and how to act and evacuate in case of a volcanic crisis.

Analysis of Transportation Disruptions from Recent Flooding and Volcanic Disasters in Hawai’i

The purpose of this paper is to describe, analyze, and compare disruptions to the transportation system from two recent disasters in Hawai’i. While they occurred on different islands (Kaua`i and Hawai’i) and resulted from different hazards (flooding and volcanic eruption), there are important commonalities due to the disruption of surface transportation and the consequences for evacuation and emergency services as well as response and recovery. On Kaua`i, the physical impacts were fewer, with a 2 mile stretch of highway damaged by flooding and landslides as compared with 31.1 miles of roads covered by lava on Hawai`i island. Both disasters had similar population impacts, with 5,566 people impacted for Kaua`i and 5,563 for Hawai`i. Another difference is a shorter duration of disruption and a quicker restoration of transportation services for Kaua`i compared with the slower, continuous, and permanent loss of transportation services in Hawai`i. The two cases provide learning opportunities for emergency managers, transportation planners, and engineers. Both demonstrate the need for redundancy in transportation infrastructure for rescue and recovery operations. While the evacuation from a flooding event is different than from a slower-moving volcanic crisis, the importance of staging areas, route planning, alternative travel modes, and training cannot be overemphasized. These disasters focus attention on the critical role of transportation systems in response and recovery. In addition to short-term operational actions, longer-term mitigation, adaptation, and risk reduction strategies are needed to support transportation resilience.

A vulnerability-based risk assessment of the threatened area surrounding Popocatépetl Volcano to support decision-making during a volcanic crisis

El volcán Popocatépetl, ubicado en la parte central de México, se encuentra rodeado por una región densamente poblada que excede los 20 millones de habitantes. Su actividad histórica de los últimos 500 años se ha limitado a varias erupciones de pequeñas a moderadas, análogas al episodio actual (1994 al presente). Sin embargo, desde la destrucción del cono ancestral hace unos 23 000 años B.P., el Popocatépetl ha dado lugar a una amplia gama de erupciones tanto en tamaño como en tipo, incluyendo eventos plinianos y colapsos masivos de sector. Muchas de de las erupciones mayores han dado lugar a grandes volúmenes de material de caída de tefra que se han extendido al menos unos 20 kilómetros hacia el sureste, entre 10 y 15 kilómetros al noreste y 15 a 18 kilómetros en el sector oeste. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los eventos plinianos cubrieron áreas más extensas con material de caída de pómez, flujos de piroclásticos y depósitos de lahar. Basados en la distribución actual de población y de los asentamientos humanos, y considerando la experiencia de evacuación efectuada durante los picos de actividad volcánica, en este trabajo se ha desarrollado una evaluación del riesgo basado en la vulnerabilidad de las áreas amenazadas alrededor del Popocatépetl, con la finalidad de apoyar la toma de decisiones ante una potencial crisis volcánica.

Risk management issues in tourist regions with explosive volcanism: The Teide's 2004 unrest, Canary Islands

Volcanic crisis management in small and densely populated islands is extremely complex. Preparedness 15 is critical to give an adequate response to volcanic unrest and reduce economic losses. However, such preparedness takes time, and involves a variety of groups of people and institutions, sometimes not only because of the requirements of knowledge with respect to self-protection but also because people must be made to change their understanding of the environment. Experience is vital if preparedness is to be improved meaning that the society at risk and the institutions involved in the management 20 sometimes have to face eruptive process. A key factor here is the magnitude and behavior of eruptive events, how these are understood by people and decision-makers, plus the ability to use them as real- life drills. Lower-medium magnitude eruptive events may help to better understand how these natural processes work but may give the impression that such events are easy to manage. Large eruptive events without preparedness can be catastrophic, and may be arduous to recover from as a result. The 25 idiosyncrasy of the society at risk plays a significant role here, thus improvements vary worldwide. In the present study, we address the initial situation in Tenerife (The Canary Islands) in 2004 and the local people's resulting response, while addressing other situations such as the pressure exerted by 1 international tour-operators or the tourist industry in general, the conflicting views of the scientists and how these affected the people, together with an overview of the management of the seismic catalog in 30 the Canary Islands as a key factor in volcanic crisis management. Current achievements will be compared to the situation given in 2004.

Volcanic Hail Detected With GPS: The 2011 Eruption of Grímsvötn Volcano, Iceland

AbstractVolcanic plumes are challenging to detect and characterize rapidly, but insights into processes such as hail formation or ash aggregation are valuable to hazard forecasts during volcanic crises. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS, which includes GPS) signals traveling from satellites to ground receivers can be disturbed by volcanic plumes. To date, two effects aiding plume detection from GNSS observations have been described: (a) ash‐rich plumes scatter the signal, lowering the signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR), and (b) some plumes refract and thus delay GNSS signals. Using GNSS data from the VEI 4 2011 Grímsvötn eruption, we show that tephra and water contents of plumes distinctly affect SNR and phase residuals. The signals suggest high‐altitude freezing of plume water into volcanic hail—corroborated by 1‐D modeling and volcanic hail deposits. Combining GNSS SNR and phase residual analyses is valuable for detecting processes that rapidly scrub fine ash out of the atmosphere.

Accessibilité territoriale et gestion de crise volcanique aux Antilles françaises (Guadeloupe & Martinique) : contribution à la planification des évacuations

Cet article privilegie une approche spatiale et comparative de l’accessibilite du territoire en situation de crise volcanique aux Antilles francaises. Apres une evaluation des ressources et populations exposees, il propose une cartographie du risque d’isolement territorial en cas de lahars. Ce risque indirect est modelise au moyen de calculs sur graphe et d’indicateurs prenant en compte la vulnerabilite specifique des ouvrages de franchissement des cours d’eau et la connaissance des lahars historiques. Une autre application des graphes porte sur l’evacuation des populations, seule parade efficace face a une eruption. Elle debouche sur un decoupage optimise des zones a evacuer permettant d’apprecier le gain de charge potentielle sur le reseau routier. Ces differents resultats sont integres dans deux prototypes de cartes d’evacuation destines aux autorites locales. La situation de la Guadeloupe est davantage preoccupante que celle de la Martinique, compte tenu de son niveau d’exposition, des pertes d’accessibilite potentielles en cas de lahars, et du regain d’activite de son volcan, la Soufriere.

The 2010 seismovolcanic crisis at Taal Volcano (Philippines)

Typical eruptions of Taal Volcano in the Philippines are frequent and violently explosive. The last devastating phreatomagmatic eruption from 1965 to 1977 resulted in the death of about 200 persons. For this and other earlier events, no warnings of impending eruptions were issued. Since this time, volcanic crises involving episodes of seismicity, deformation, gas release, temperature change, etc., have occurred frequently. Each of these did not, but possibly could have, evolved into an explosive eruption. One such event occurred between April 2010 and March 2011. This paper reports various types of geophysical data (electric/magnetic field, ground temperature, seismicity and ground deformation) taken during this period of activity together with the current state of geophysical knowledge about the volcano in order to throw light on activity evolution. While the 2010 seismovolcanic crisis was preceded by unusual changes in electric field, ground tilting and uplift, the major signals from all data were concomitant with the evolution of the crisis. On April 20, 2010, felt earthquakes first started to occur. The numbers increased sharply after April 29 with repeated pulses of seismicity that ended finally in March 2011. Overall, we can identify three periods of seismic activity, from April 20 to August 4–8, from August 4–8 to November 18, and from November 18 to March 28, 2011. Although only a single tiltmeter was in operation, it recorded three phases of deformation that correspond generally with the pulses in seismic activity. Phase 1 appears to correspond to inflation at a depth of about 5 km just to the NW of Main Crater Lake from April 20 to June 11, 2010. This resulted in an eastward tilting of the northern flank of the volcano. This apparently triggered rapid but shallower inflation (Phase 2) in the hydrothermal region of the volcano under the northern edge of Main Crater Lake from June 11 to July 13 just to the SE of the initial deeper source as indicated by northward tilting of the volcano’s northern flank. Progressive deflation began after July 13. By March 28, 2011, the deformation state recovered to the pre-crisis level and felt seismic activity ceased. Apparent related changes in seismicity, tilt, magnetic and electric fields occur during smaller NS inflations in the Phase 3 deflation—Phase 3a (July 13 to August 4–8), Phase 3b (August 4–8 to November 18) and Phase 3c (November 18 to March 28, 2011). These likely result from interrelated stress change, fluid/gas migration and thermal activity at depth and in the hydrothermal system. The rapidity of changes in the state of the volcano over a matter of hours during this entire process indicates rapid communication occurs between processes at depth and in the hydrothermal system and this could easily result in the dramatic evolution to violent phreatic explosions with little warning.

Initial processing of volcanic seismic signals using Hidden Markov Models: Nevado del Huila, Colombia

Volcanic eruptions are commonly preceded by seismic signals that carry important information about the underlying physical processes driving the eruptive activity. The manual classification of this seismicity is often difficult during seismic crises and timely responses in volcanic surveillance depend upon on how fast this work is performed. Automatic classification programs are an excellent alternative because they can classify seismic signals in near real-time. Although these programs have been successfully tested for many volcanoes, they have not yet been applied to the monitoring of volcanic crises. We automated the initial processing of the seismic activity recorded at Nevado del Huila volcano in Colombia, using Hidden Markov Models. The technique consists of classifying seismic signals, extracting the main characteristics of each classified signal, and deriving important physical parameters that are important in volcanic surveillance. Continuous seismic data from 2007 to 2012 were used to develop this project. A total of 2142 events were selected to train the program. The best characteristic model obtained during the training had an accuracy of 91.25%, and a similar pattern in volcanic behavior to that from manual classification was modeled. The encouraging results demonstrate that automatic classification programs are a powerful tool that can be used in surveillance and monitoring of active volcanoes as they provide timely information for the proper management of volcanic crises and subsequent hazards mitigation.

Commonwealth of Australia July to December 2017

As the year 2017 played out, a bizarre sequence of political crises handicapped not only the Turnbull government but also the entire parliament and most of the major and minor political parties. Of course, the usual incidence of mishaps and political bushfires had to be dealt with, but a series of major almost volcanic crises threatened government’s leadership as well as the fundamental legitimacy of the entire system of representative government. The most serious eruption was the “dual citizenship crisis” that beset senators and members alike, with speculation that over thirty elected representatives sitting in the present parliament were susceptible to a challenge under section 44(i) of the Constitution (and maybe as many as fifty). Many sitting politicians were entangled even if they had not taken steps to activate a potential citizenship entitlement. Some even claimed not to have known they were entitled to citizenship of other countries. The issue, which first surfaced in July 2017 but ran well into 2018, was made all the more complex because other nations could amend their citizenship laws at any time, thus changing access to the entitlement.

Newspaper reporting of the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise, part 2: framing the hazard

An analysis of the front pages of 120 consecutive editions of the local newspaper for the island of La Réunion (France), “Le Journal de L’Ile de La Réunion”, published before, during and after the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise reveals that its front page is an ideal vehicle for maximizing information delivery and recall during a volcanic eruption. Supported by flash tests, and by cross-checking with a content analysis of information given within the newspaper, we find that the front page is an effective gauge for the hazard frame which, for the case examined here, involved six volcanic hazards (pit-crater collapse, lava flows, gas, air fall, ocean entry lava flow and bench collapse), as well as the issue of evacuation. We found that crater collapse and lava flow hazards were framed using their natural colors and clear imagery of the phenomenon, tied to context-setting explanations within the newspaper. However, for lava flows in particular there was an element of spectacle and promotion of sightseeing, with photographs always featuring sightseers invariably taking photographs. After the end of the eruption reporting became almost entirely focused on tourists and sightseeing. Gas and ash fall hazard were framed using images and words of the victims, so that it became worrying and frightening, and associated with panic. As a result, the volcano itself became portrayed as a monster, and the situation for the impacted population became “apocalyptic” and “hellish”. This probably contributed to the evacuation measures being described as confused and pointless, with the morale of the impacted population suffering accordingly. The ocean entry and bench collapse had no frame at all, and became associated with the dead, exotic fish that were collected; this hazard thus being framed as an interesting curiosity rather than a volcanic hazard. The front page-tracking model followed here could guide future educative measures during volcanic crises by quickly identifying, on the basis of front page analysis, hazards that are appropriately conveyed versus those that are poorly portrayed. Responses to rectify a poor frame can include reactive scientific advertising, a route that is used commonly by businesses seeking to boost sales by taking timely advantage of a developing newspaper frame, and distribution of appropriately designed and timed press releases.