Use Of Scenario Planning Research Articles

Climate change adaptation for biodiversity in protected areas: An overview of actions

Protected Areas (PAs) have been a cornerstone of conservation policy in the past but are generally static and thus might be less useful under climate change as species move away from reserves designated for them. In addition, shifting phenology and habitat alteration due to extreme events could make conditions unviable within PAs for species unable to move. However, several recent papers documented their utility in retaining contracting species, acting as stepping-stones for expanding species of conservation concern and resisting invasion by vagrants. Theoretical studies have suggested a role for both protected area design and management to enable biodiversity to adapt to climate change and implementation of these actions has begun. Here we synthesise case studies of climate change adaptation actions in protected areas from the globally available literature. We found 91 case studies of 114 different actions from 30 countries, mostly within Europe, specifically the UK. Half reported an outcome of actions, however, these were generally either the area restored or protected, or incidental reports of colonisation by desired species, without a description of monitoring before and after action. In addition, 72 % of actions would have been beneficial to biodiversity without the presence of climate change, so transformative action is lacking. Better monitoring and reporting of outcomes are urgently needed to develop the evidence base on which actions are most effective, to enable more reserve managers to take action. Managers also need encouragement to identify transformative actions, perhaps by the use of scenario planning to aid understanding of future uncertainties.

The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation

It is well established in the foresight literature that strategy tools, such as scenario planning, have multiple reported outcomes. Much of the existing research focuses on direct outcomes, such as identifying uncertainties and developing strategies. While indirect outcomes, such as improving organisational learning and culture, are acknowledged, the existing literature provides limited empirical evidence. This paper focuses on an indirect outcome of scenario planning that has largely been ignored: entrepreneurial orientation. This research investigates whether the use of scenario planning affects key dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation among organisations that engage with it. Our model is tested through a series of hypotheses, taking advantage of a unique dataset of 133 companies from the health sector in France. This study uses a partial least squares (PLS) analysis; the findings show that scenario planning promotes risk-taking and proactive behaviour, but does not affect the innovativeness of organisations that use it. Based on these findings, we theorise about the impact of scenario planning on the entrepreneurial behaviour of organisations and discuss the practical implications of this research.

Toward a Diagnostic Tool for Organizational Ethical Culture With Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning

The literature on futures studies scarcely mentions the use of scenario planning in organizational ethics. By gathering and analyzing diverse macro (contextual) and micro (transactional) points of view, here called “partial truths,” this article investigates how scenario planning could be used as a complementary tool to diagnose disruptions that may impact an organization's ethical culture. We conducted futures thinking interviews with 16 managers in a multinational European energy company and its South American subsidiary, and followed up the research with a scenario planning intervention with managers participating in an ethics forum in the Basque Country. Through case studies, the research qualitatively describes the processes by which top management would utilize scenario planning methods to address business ethics in organizational dynamics. The combined study led to a framework of pragmatic ethics and systems thinking that broadens our understanding of the main themes that lead to disruptions that managers believed would impact ethical culture. This analysis gives further insight into the potential use of scenarios to support corporations to engage in ethical deliberation and thereby enable ethical reinterpretation of company policies, strategies, and initiatives. We revealed fundamental biases toward the acceptance of scenario planning methods for business ethics in companies, dependent upon corporate values and goals, ethical concerns, cultural characteristics, and financial and time constraints. The reflections extracted from interviews and ethnographic research resulted in a template showing why some businesses would be open to scenario planning for corporate ethical culture, while others would be reluctant to engage in the activity.

The Use of Scenario Planning for Exploring the Future of Migration: Insights from an Expert Survey

Scenario planning has been gaining popularity during the last decade as a tool for exploring how international migration flows might change under unknown future circumstances. This approach consists in identifying for an outcome of interest the most impactful yet uncertain drivers of change, to then develop narratives that describe how change in these drivers may impact the outcome of interest. When applied to the problem of international migration, however, scenario planning suffers from limitations that reduce the insights that can be derived from such exercises. In this article, we first highlight these limitations by reviewing existing applications of scenario planning to the problem of migration. Then, we propose a new approach that consists in specifying different pathways of change in a set of six predefined drivers, to then ask experts how each of these pathways might impact both migration flows and the other five drivers. We apply our approach to the case of migration pressure and demand from less developed countries to Europe to the horizon 2050. Results from our expert survey underscore the importance of a wider array of drivers for the future of migration than has so far been considered in previous applications of scenario planning. They further suggest that drivers do not change independently from each other, but that specific changes in some drivers are likely to go hand in hand with specific change in other drivers. Lastly, we find that changes in similar drivers could have different effects in sending and receiving countries. We finish by discussing how enhanced, quantified scenarios of migration between less developed countries and Europe can be formulated based on our results.

Scenario planning for development of a national anti-corruption framework

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the application of scenarios, as part of foresight process in the attempt to anticipate and understand the future vulnerabilities, trends and challenges for macro planning process. Design/methodology/approach The use of multidisciplinary knowledge, tools and methodologies with the aim of finding new solutions to the grand challenges faced by government have gained popularity in the Malaysian public sector. One of the tools gaining prominence is the use of scenario planning, where it has been widely used by both the public and private sectors to manage risk and develop robust strategic plans in face of uncertain future. The method is extensively applied by many corporations and multinationals particularly among international oil and gas organisations. In the public sector, scenarios have been effectively used in many areas and discipline to provide a broad and deep understanding and inclusive approach in formulation and development of policies. Findings This paper described the use of scenarios to understand the present and future of anti-corruption, as well as anticipate emerging areas of corruption, both within the government and its ecosystem. This led to the formulation of the national level policy on anti-corruption. Research limitations/implications The National Anti-Corruption Plan is an open and living document that will be continuously reviewed throughout its five years implementation duration. It is the reference document for ministries, agencies and governments-linked companies in Malaysia to develop their own Organisational Anti-Corruption Plan. Therefore, the document will be a strategic document for the Government of Malaysia to materialise their anti-corruption effort as a strategic conversation engagement with stakeholders that will provide new insights to the scenarios developed. Practical implications Often, policymakers begin the process of policy formulation through the identification of the problem statement, with hypothesis developed for the subject matter by project owners and stakeholders. Upon understanding the problems, efforts will then be made to identify solutions or strategies through deliberation by stakeholders. However, this direct approach may produce gaps and lack the required future robustness. The use of scenarios will ensure inclusiveness of approach, taking into consideration all present challenges, anticipating future need and trends that emerged in domestic, regional and international contexts. Social implications This paper addresses corruption by developing solutions that enable the government to solve present problem and to prevent future occurrences by anticipating incidents and areas of corruption; it is about proactive measures rather than reactive measures. This paper also emphasizes on a different perspective – looking at multiple lenses – understanding the systemic issues and interdependencies of anti-corruption challenges. The stakeholders then shift their lenses, narrowing the issues towards specific areas, from a broader perspective to a more focused perspective measure. This study ensures critical stakeholders’ involvement and buy-in; findings and suggested solutions are shared and tested amongst targeted groups. This will enable collective insights and shared responsibility for stakeholders in ensuring the success of the implementation of the plan. Originality/value The authors wish to highlight that reviews of various anti-corruption policy documents, especially in the Asia Pacific region were made. This was intended to highlight the significance of this paper and how it shows that the application of scenarios in formulation of a national level anti-corruption policy is unprecedented.

Scenario planning for climate change adaptation for natural resource management: Insights from the Australian East Coast Cluster

Natural resources and inherent ecosystem services have long been under pressure from unsustainable exploitation further exacerbated by climate change impacts. Managing natural resources in the Australian context is also a complex task because it involves a raft of stakeholders subjected to ongoing institutional changes and reductions in funding for programme implementation. This paper explores the use of scenario planning as a suitable tool to deal with the uncertainty and complexity inherent to natural resource management. Specifically, it reports on the development and application of explorative scenarios (multiple plausible futures) involving six natural resource management organisations and their communities of practice operating along the East Coast of Australia. Scenarios were developed based on two key drivers of change, namely: maturing approach to natural resource management; and community driven climate change action, to test the robustness and flexibility of a suite of existing strategies, policies and targets. Findings indicate that explorative scenarios were useful in the identification of strategies that may result in perverse or negative impacts under different futures; guide selection of different approaches in response to unexpected events; encourage a forward-looking approach rather than relying on past experiences only; create flexible, robust strategies that are better able to deal with shocks and surprises; provide participating policy owners with an opportunity to consider future contexts for their policies to play out in; and, ascertain a range of possible pathways to achieve a vision or goals depending on changed circumstances.

Use of scenario planning as a theory‐driven evaluation tool

AbstractTheory‐driven evaluation (TDE) is an approach for prescribing an evaluation’s purposes, users and uses, general activities, strategies, and methods in the form of a “program theory.” While widely used, the literature highlights a number of common deficiencies in TDEs, among which is the tendency for underdeveloped program theories because of a lack of specificity on the theory‐creation process, and because the emergent nature of change renders it difficult to identify relevant theory a priori, leading to uncertainty. Theoretical underdevelopment may reduce the effectiveness of change initiatives and make their evaluation problematic due to a lack of clarity regarding what the program was originally expected to achieve, and how. This paper addresses this issue by showing that scenario planning can assist TDE by (a) making explicit initial causal logic and theory; (b) facilitating useful debate and discussion among multiple stakeholders; and (c) facilitating consideration of how contingent and complex causation may lead to unexpected outcomes, allowing for consideration of adaptations that may be needed as a program unfolds. This paper shows that scenario planning is highly congruent with a complex‐realist understanding of evaluation that emphasizes causal indeterminism. In sum, we show how scenario planning can be used as a TDE tool.

Scenario planning in public libraries: a discussion

ABSTRACTThe authors explore the use of scenario planning in public libraries via a Q&A discussion. They discuss the impact of unexpected events and unwelcome trends on libraries’ future, explain the distinction between scenario work and forecasting, and outline a practical approach to devising and delivering scenario planning activities at a local library level. This discussion, which took place at Oxford University’s Said Business School on 23 August 2018, explores the use of scenario planning in public libraries.

The future of global research: A case study on the use of scenario planning in the publishing industry

Key points Scenario planning is fun and engaging and is a good opportunity to revisit your company's core strengths and competitive advantage! Scenario planning should drive long‐term thinking in organizations. It will change the nature of the strategic conversation and can be used to help validate business innovation. Scenarios can help to engage with other organizations in the industry and help people work together to create preferred future outcomes. The complexity of scenario planning should not be underestimated and shortcuts do not work.

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of "Brexit".

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors”) and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health surveillance after Brexit. This insight from stakeholders is important to improve uptake and implementation of animal heath surveillance activities and the future resilience of the livestock industry. The conclusions drawn from this study are applicable not only to Scotland but to other countries and international organizations involved in global animal health surveillance activities.

Scenario planning and the future of work: There is a better way to predict the future of work

The desire to predict both the future of work and the workplace of the future is not a new phenomenon. Within organisations there has always been a need for this knowledge. Today, with organisations facing unprecedented disruptions that are changing their business models and transforming the very nature of their organisational design, the need to predict one’s workplace of the future takes on new importance. This paper explores the forces that are causing disruptions to every industry, how they are transforming the concept of these organisations, and how a better understating of future conditions can create strategic importance to the role of workplace design. This paper goes on to show how traditional ways of predicting the future of work based on trends has often been short-sighted and how predicting the workplace of the future through the use of scenario planning is a more meaningful way of navigating the uncertainties of the business landscape and has the potential to align workplace design strategies to an organisation’s business strategies, thereby enabling the workplace to serve as a strategic asset rather than an expense.

Benefits of Scenario Planning Applied to Energy Development

Abstract Scenario planning was first used effectively by Royal Dutch Shell approximately 40 years ago. The company recognized that efforts to predict exactly the future are unlikely to be very successful. The premise of scenario planning is that organizations look at possible future trends and project several possible futures (or scenarios). The intent is to project enough such scenarios, even unlikely ones, that they “bracket” possible futures. This enables one to assess the ability of their policy, process, or design to perform positively within any of the scenarios and thus represent a truly robust choice. This paper briefly describes some examples of use of scenario planning within the energy sector, as well as some unusual factors that may influence the outcomes.

OP72 Adherence Of Budget Impact Analyses To Principles Of Good Practice

INTRODUCTION:Budget Impact Analysis (BIA) is an integral element of a comprehensive Health Technology Assessment. Prior systematic reviews showed significant methodological dissimilarities in BIAs published from 2002 to 2015 (1,2). Aimed to improve the generalisability and transferability of outcomes, a guidance on methods was updated in 2014 (3). The objective of this study was to measure the adherence to Principles of Good Practice of BIAs published after the release of the updated guidelines.METHODS:Fifteen features representative of methodological appropriateness were identified from the Principles of Good Practice. A systematic review of the extant literature was conducted to identify BIAs published from January 2015 to December 2016. The adherence of each BIA to the Principles of Good Practice was defined by the number of representative characteristics taken into consideration as a percent of the total.The full study protocol is available online: http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42016049287RESULTS:A sample of thirty-nine published BIAs were included in the analysis. The mean adherence of BIAs to the Principles of Good Practice was 69 percent (10.4 representative features out of 15). The highest adherence was 87 percent, while the lowest was 33 percent. The distribution of the scores was highly concentrated around the mean value, with thirty-four BIAs (87 percent of total sample) showing a level of adherence ≥ 60 percent. Only two BIAs reported an adherence < 50 percent (5 percent of total sample). Six representative features showed a level of adherence < 50 percent: off-label use (0 percent); uncertainty (26 percent); validation (33 percent); choice of computing framework (44 percent); eligible population (44 percent) and relevant features of healthcare system (49 percent).CONCLUSIONS:Compared to the Principles of Good Practice, the BIAs included in the systematic review were overcomplicated and deterministic, ignoring the impact of possible scenarios relevant to budget holders. The research advocates a wider use of scenario planning as a tool to link uncertainty to the economic assessment of new interventions.

Unlocking the potential barriers on SMEs’ uptake of scenario planning

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the uptake of scenario planning by SMEs. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual review of the literature on scenario planning in SMEs intended to unpack and capture the possible underlying reasons accounting for the limited uptake of scenario planning by managers/owners of SMEs has informed the formulation of this paper. Findings – The study uncovered that SMEs’ managerial mental models, SMEs’ managerial time orientation, severe resource constraints, and industry complexity are some of the salient factors inhibiting the use of scenario planning among managers/owners of SMEs. The author develops a framework of propositions that account for the complexity and challenges of scenario planning by SMEs for future empirical examination and validation. Originality/value – The conventional wisdom is that scenario planning is carried out by large and established firms, and that SMEs are unable to adopt and practice the technique. This paper uncovers that SME have substantial needs for scenario planning, but are only able to engage in simple foresight activities such as brainstorming, desk research, networking and expert interviews to monitor their external environment. They are unable to effectively use scenario planning in its purest form as in large firms. By bringing together the reasons accounting for the difficulty of SMEs to practice scenario planning in its purest form as large firms do, the study therefore extends the limited discourse on scenario planning among SMEs. Implications are discussed and areas for future empirical studies provided.

Radical uncertainty: scenario planning for futures

The use of scenario planning in urban and regional planning practice has grown in the last decade as one way to face uncertainty. However, in adapting scenario planning from its origins in the business sector, planners have eliminated two key components: (1) the use of multiple scenarios, and (2) the inclusion of diverse organizations, people, and interests through deep deliberations. We argue that this shift limits the ability of planners to plan for multiple plausible futures that are shaped by an increasing number of diverse actors. In this paper, we use case-study research to examine how uncertainty was considered in four scenario-planning processes. We analyzed and compared the cases based on analytical categories related to multiple futures and diversity. We found that the processes that used multiple, structurally distinct scenarios explored a wider range of topics and issues shaping places. All four relied heavily on professional stakeholders as the scenario developers, limiting public input. Only one of the processes that included multiple futures captured the differential effects that scenarios would have on diverse people and interests. Overall, the purpose of the scenario planning drove the participant diversity and ultimately the quality and use of the scenarios.

Toward an integrated science and sociotecture of intentional change.

We heartily agree with the target article and focus on how positive sociocultural change can be accelerated through the systematic use of scenario planning - what we call sociotecture. Scenario planning is a design process for the creation and selection of symbotypes that make a positive difference. It cuts through complexity by integrating cognitive and affective processes across multiple scales.

Scenario planning with integrated quantification – managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building

Purpose – This paper makes a case for the benefits of quantified scenarios as a foresight tool for strategic planning. First it aims to set the context of quantification approaches for strategic planning in foresight. Within world models, qualitative scenarios allow for a contingency perspective of the future, however their potential to be linked to strategic planning in corporate foresight is limited. In contrast to complex world models, forecasts on key indicators are easily applied to strategy processes, but lack the necessary capability to recognise uncertainty and decision points. The paper seeks to argue for a new participative and pragmatic approach in order to bridge the gap between the opposing approaches and aims to show how this quantification approach can be integrated with scenario construction on an operational level. Design/methodology/approach – The authors discuss a quantitative scenario process and argue for its suitability to corporate foresight. They then describe a range of leanings from various foresight projects that have successfully applied quantified scenarios to strategic planning. Findings – Quantified scenarios can increase the impact foresight thinking has on corporate strategic planning. Research limitations/implications – The paper outlines the methods and tools of quantified corporate foresight, it does not include empirical evidence or concrete case studies. Practical implications – The approach outlined here can be used in corporate foresight projects in order to improve the use of scenario planning for strategy. Originality/value – This paper is the first one to outline a process for scenario quantification within corporate foresight.

The Challenge of Climate Change Adaptation: Learning from National Planning Efforts in Britain, China, and the USA

This article examines projected climate impacts and national planning efforts in three major countries: the USA, UK and China. The three countries are in varying stages of planning for climate adaptation. Planning frameworks in all three countries suffer from a lack of spe- cificity and urgency. To address this situation, the article recommends two measures. The first is the use of scenario planning, including consideration of high-impact scenarios, to address the downside risks of climate change. Planning in the UK has begun to make use of scenario analysis, although in a less comprehensive manner, while the USA had an earlier experiment in the use of the worst-case scen- ario as a planning tool. The second recommendation is to identify and prioritise impacts on vulnerable populations such as the elderly, the poor and coastal communities. This recommendation has roots in the US planning proposals, but also resonates with international human rights law.

Scenario planning as a tool to understand uncertainty in tourism: the example of transport and tourism in Scotland in 2025

This paper discusses the use of scenario planning as a methodology to help understand the future of tourism. It reports on the results of a scenario planning exercise undertaken in 2007 in Scotland by VisitScotland, the National Tourism Organisation for Scotland, which seeks to understand how transport might shape tourism in 2025. The study followed an established methodology used by the UK's Office for Science and Technology [OfST. (2006). Transport – intelligent futures project. London: Author.] and how it set out to understand what transport provision might look like in 2055. The methodology used by the OfST study was modified and expanded by this study with a series of in-depth interviews with industry stakeholders to understand what the key drivers of change in the transport sector were in 2007 and would be in 2025. This was followed by the construction of two scenarios designed to look at two extreme cases of how transport and tourism would be interconnected to shape the destination and ability to access different types of tourism product and experience. These scenarios were then introduced to a workshop setting with key industry stakeholders to assess the reliability and validity of the scenarios. The paper also draws out wider implications for academic research of using scenario analysis in tourism, so that the value of this methodology can be understood and used more widely in appropriate settings. The study has to be viewed against the current tourism strategy for Scotland – the Tourism Framework for Change.

Organizational ambidexterity: Integrating deliberate and emergent strategy with scenario planning

In this article we propose scenario planning as a tool for fostering organizational ambidexterity. The concept of organizational ambidexterity continues to gain attention, however, clear methods for developing this organizational ability are generally not offered. We therefore describe organizational ambidexterity and situate it in the general strategy literature. Key characteristics of organizational ambidexterity are provided, and the logical link to scenario planning is made. As the concept of organizational ambidexterity is relatively novel, our proposal highlights the use of scenario planning as a potential tool for developing this organizational “skill”, and clear next steps are described to examine our proposal as well as leverage the concept of organizational ambidexterity beyond that of a simple metaphor.