Toward a Diagnostic Tool for Organizational Ethical Culture With Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning

Abstract

The literature on futures studies scarcely mentions the use of scenario planning in organizational ethics. By gathering and analyzing diverse macro (contextual) and micro (transactional) points of view, here called “partial truths,” this article investigates how scenario planning could be used as a complementary tool to diagnose disruptions that may impact an organization's ethical culture. We conducted futures thinking interviews with 16 managers in a multinational European energy company and its South American subsidiary, and followed up the research with a scenario planning intervention with managers participating in an ethics forum in the Basque Country. Through case studies, the research qualitatively describes the processes by which top management would utilize scenario planning methods to address business ethics in organizational dynamics. The combined study led to a framework of pragmatic ethics and systems thinking that broadens our understanding of the main themes that lead to disruptions that managers believed would impact ethical culture. This analysis gives further insight into the potential use of scenarios to support corporations to engage in ethical deliberation and thereby enable ethical reinterpretation of company policies, strategies, and initiatives. We revealed fundamental biases toward the acceptance of scenario planning methods for business ethics in companies, dependent upon corporate values and goals, ethical concerns, cultural characteristics, and financial and time constraints. The reflections extracted from interviews and ethnographic research resulted in a template showing why some businesses would be open to scenario planning for corporate ethical culture, while others would be reluctant to engage in the activity.