Scenario planning with integrated quantification – managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building

Abstract

Purpose – This paper makes a case for the benefits of quantified scenarios as a foresight tool for strategic planning. First it aims to set the context of quantification approaches for strategic planning in foresight. Within world models, qualitative scenarios allow for a contingency perspective of the future, however their potential to be linked to strategic planning in corporate foresight is limited. In contrast to complex world models, forecasts on key indicators are easily applied to strategy processes, but lack the necessary capability to recognise uncertainty and decision points. The paper seeks to argue for a new participative and pragmatic approach in order to bridge the gap between the opposing approaches and aims to show how this quantification approach can be integrated with scenario construction on an operational level. Design/methodology/approach – The authors discuss a quantitative scenario process and argue for its suitability to corporate foresight. They then describe a range of leanings from various foresight projects that have successfully applied quantified scenarios to strategic planning. Findings – Quantified scenarios can increase the impact foresight thinking has on corporate strategic planning. Research limitations/implications – The paper outlines the methods and tools of quantified corporate foresight, it does not include empirical evidence or concrete case studies. Practical implications – The approach outlined here can be used in corporate foresight projects in order to improve the use of scenario planning for strategy. Originality/value – This paper is the first one to outline a process for scenario quantification within corporate foresight.