US Dollar Exchange Rate Research Articles

Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions

Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions

ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO DI INDONESIA 2015 – 2019

Cocoa is one of the plantation commodities that has an important role in economic activities in Indonesia. Cocoa is also one of Indonesia's export commodities which is quite important as a foreign exchange earner besides oil and gas. Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer and exporter after Ghana and Ivory Coast. The development of cocoa exports in 2015-2019 has a fairly volatile pattern. In 2015 the total export volume of cocoa was 105.15 thousand tons and in 2017 it increased by 270.17 thousand tons. The results of this study indicate that partially the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. The price variable has a positive and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. Simultaneously the US Dollar exchange rate, price and amount of cocoa production have a significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. This analysis shows that the variable that has the dominant influence on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia from 2015-2019 is the price variable.

Extension and Revision of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Domestic Real Investment in Nigeria: A Time Series Study Between 1981-2015 by Lucky Anyike Lucky & Uzah Cheta Kingsley

The study by Lucky Anyike and Uzah Cheta Kingsley examines the impact of monetary policy on domestic real investment in Nigeria, using Gross Fixed Capital Formation to Gross Domestic Product ratio as a proxy for domestic real investment. The study uses various independent variables, including the maximum lending rate, credit to private sector as a percentage of GDP, naira to US dollar exchange rate, savings rate, monetary policy rate, prime lending rate, and Treasury bill rate. The authors conclude that monetary policy has a significant effect on the domestic real investment rate. The extension of this paper examines the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy on domestic real investment in Nigeria, while also considering the influence of political biases and the fact that a significant portion of fiscal policy spending may be allocated to current expenditures rather than capital expenditures. While mainstream economic theory suggests that fiscal policy should have a positive effect on real investment rate, this theory may be challenged in Nigeria due to the specific context and allocation of fiscal resources. We also examine the effect of monetary policy on domestic real investment rate in Nigeria by incorporating additional variables in our analysis.

Alternative Timber Applications for Sri Lankan House Construction during the Economic Crisis


 
 
 
 A crucial component of civilization, housing construction has evolved in a variety of ways based on new technology and materials. However, due to Sri Lanka's economic crisis, house building is now one of the most in-danger industries there. Subjectively, the cost of imported base building materials has grown due to the danger of inflation, and this increase is dependent on the US dollar exchange rate. The reason is that more than 50% of the building and raw materials are imported, and a rise in the US dollar value will raise the price of construction supplies. In order to find the best materials to reduce the cost of building a house based on imported materials, this study compares the life cycle quality of imported and local alternatives for imported materials made of timber. There are many various kinds of materials that have been utilized in house construction, but the focus of this study is on timber-based alternatives. The study is mainly focused on aluminum and glass as imported materials and timber as an alternative material. Based on life cycle cost analysis, these materials were compared using material costs and data gathered through interviews. Additionally, weighted analysis has been utilized to choose the optimum material based on consumer preferences, appearance and aesthetics, durability, and local availability of resources. Even though local materials are more affordable and score higher on other metrics, it was discovered that they may no longer be comparable to imported materials. People also rapidly switch back to imported materials when they are affordable after the economic crisis. It also found that local timber consumption increased during the economic crisis leading to deforestation.
 Keywords: Alternative materials, Appearance, Durability of materials, Finishing materials, House construction, Life Cycle Cost Analysis, Timber
 
 
 

Extension and Revision of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms and Their Impact on Domestic Real Investment in Nigeria: A Time Series Study from 1981 to 2015 by Lucky Anyike and Uzah Cheta Kingsley

The study by Lucky Anyike and Uzah Cheta Kingsley examines the impact of monetary policy on domestic real investment in Nigeria, using the Gross Fixed Capital Formation to Gross Domestic Product ratio as a proxy for domestic real investment. The study uses various independent variables, including the maximum lending rate, credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, the naira to US dollar exchange rate, the savings rate, the monetary policy rate, the prime lending rate, and the Treasury bill rate. The authors conclude that monetary policy has a significant effect on the domestic real investment rate. The extension of this paper includes an examination of the impact of fiscal policy on domestic real investment in Nigeria, while also considering the influence of political biases and the fact that a significant portion of fiscal policy spending may be allocated to current expenditures rather than capital expenditures. While mainstream economic theory suggests that fiscal policy should have a positive effect on the real investment rate, this theory may be challenged in Nigeria due to the specific context and allocation of fiscal resources. We also examine the effect of monetary policy on the domestic real investment rate in Nigeria by incorporating additional variables in our analysis.

The sustainability of production and the US Dollar exchange rate influence Indonesian Cocoa and Pepper exports and their competitiveness

This research aims to determine the sustainability of production factors and the US dollar exchange rate on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021, as well as their competitiveness with Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan during the period of 2017-2021. The data analysis methods used were Multiple Linear Regression, RAC, and EPD. The research results indicate that production sustainability has a significant effect on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period, while the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a significant effect on cocoa exports but an insignificant effect on pepper exports. The competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa for the 2017-2021 period, using the RCA method, is strong in Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan but weak in Thailand and Vietnam. However, with the EPD method, exports to Singapore and Vietnam are in the Raising Star position, to Thailand and Japan in the Falling Star position, and to Malaysia in the Lost Opportunity position. With the RCA method for the 2017-2021 period, Indonesia’s pepper competitiveness is weak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan, but with the EPD method, it is Raising Star in Malaysia and Vietnam, Falling Star in Thailand and Japan, and Lost Opportunity in Singapore.

A hybrid econometrics and machine learning based modeling of realized volatility of natural gas

Determining which variables affect price realized volatility has always been challenging. This paper proposes to explain how financial assets influence realized volatility by developing an optimal day-to-day forecast. The methodological proposal is based on using the best econometric and machine learning models to forecast realized volatility. In particular, the best forecasting from heterogeneous autoregressive and long short-term memory models are used to determine the influence of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index, euro–US dollar exchange rate, price of gold, and price of Brent crude oil on the realized volatility of natural gas. These financial assets influenced the realized volatility of natural gas in 87.4% of the days analyzed; the euro–US dollar exchange rate was the primary financial asset and explained 40.1% of the influence. The results of the proposed daily analysis differed from those of the methodology used to study the entire period. The traditional model, which studies the entire period, cannot determine temporal effects, whereas the proposed methodology can. The proposed methodology allows us to distinguish the effects for each day, week, or month rather than averages for entire periods, with the flexibility to analyze different frequencies and periods. This methodological capability is key to analyzing influences and making decisions about realized volatility.

Forecasting the dynamics of the exchange rate using econometric methods and artificial neural networks.

The article presents the possibilities of applying the methods of applied statistics used in modern analysis to analyze the dynamics of the exchange rate. The exchange rate in the modern world is quite a significant tool of the economic system of the state. Determining the trend in the development of the exchange rate is important in almost any business direction that involves capital investment. In modern economic conditions, it has a rather differential character, which is accompanied by risk, to one degree or another. And although assets in US dollars have declined in recent years, the Central Bank did not plan to completely abandon the dollar in its reserves, since this currency is necessary to maintain financial stability, given the high role of the US currency in foreign trade settlements and its fundamental role in financial flows. To predict the dynamics of the exchange rate, the official US dollar exchange rate was taken. Methods of constructing predictive models using ARIMA models and prediction models based on neural networks are proposed for making forecasts. The models were evaluated and the most accurate variant was proposed – a model based on the construction of neural networks (MLP model 12-8-1 (No. 4)) with a prediction error of 6 %.

СТРЕС-ТЕСТУВАННЯ У ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННІ ФІНАНСОВОЇ СКЛАДОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА З УРАХУВАННЯМ КРИТЕРІЮ ФІНАНСОВОГО РЕСУРСОЗБЕРЕЖЕННЯ

The purpose of the article is to research stress testing for the implementation of the mechanism for ensuring the financial component of the economic security of the enterprise, taking into account the criterion of financial resource saving. The relevance of this research lies in the application of forecasting within the framework of stress testing, the determination of the possible options for the development of the events in the relation to external and internal factors of the enterprise and its implementation in the mechanism of financial security. Research methods are applied in the research: system analysis and synthesis, systematization, comparison, method of statistical data processing. In the conditions of uncertainty of the external and internal conditions of the company’s activity, the role of forecasting, on which stress testing is based, is growing especially acutely. The article examines the essence of the concept of stress testing and considers the views of various authors regarding its application in order to ensure the economic activity of the enterprises. The use of the stress testing is proposed in order to improve the mechanism of the ensuring the financial component of the economic security of the enterprise, taking into account the criterion of financial resource saving. It was determined that the stress testing process is associated with risks, and since deposit risk is the main factor for financial resource conservation, the influence of external and internal factors on deposit risks was considered. The external factors include: the reliability of a commercial bank, changes in the legal framework, the political and economic situation in the country, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, and the internal factors include: an unsuccessful choice of a bank for the investing funds and the depositor’s immediate need for the cash. Tools for the ensuring financial security are proposed, taking into account the criterion of the financial resource saving. As a part of stress testing, a forecast of the US dollar exchange rate and the consumer price index was made. The practical value of the article lies in the fact that, based on the completed forecast, measures are proposed to ensure the financial component of economic security based on financial resource saving.

ТЕНДЕНЦИИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ СИСТЕМ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ БИЗНЕСОМ В РОССИИ В XXI ВЕКЕ

The article deals with the causes of economic crises of the XXI century and analyses their consequences on the Russian management system. The study revealed that each crisis affects both negatively and positively the business management system. It became obvious that the Russian economy and industry are highly dependent on the US dollar exchange rate, as well as world prices for export goods, 90 per cent of which are raw materials and semi-raw materials.

Analysis of Currency Risk Hedging Strategies in Multinational Companies: A Case Study of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War and Surge in US Dollar Exchange Rate

The volatility of exchange rates due to frequent global events is one of today’s hot topics. The profitability of large multinational corporations is highly correlated with exchange rates. This paper primarily takes a case study approach, focusing on the combination of global events and large multinational corporations, integrated with the strategic optimization of commodity swaps. The ultimate goal is to develop innovative strategies for large multinational corporations to hedge against foreign exchange risk. The first case of the article focuses on the analysis of the Russian Ruble exchange rate, which first fell and then rose from February to August 2022, and Coca-Cola HBC modifies cash and debt to account for foreign exchange swings. The second case assesses the financial impact of a spike in the U.S. dollar exchange rate in 2022, where Coca-Cola reduces its assets in financial derivatives designated as hedges and significantly increases its liabilities to offset them. In addition, the study also presents a novel strategy that mixes forward foreign currency contracts with commodity futures. Reduce risk by securing profits ahead of time. This comprehensive analysis aims to provide companies with insightful and actionable strategies for managing the complexity and uncertainty of currency market volatility.

Testing Portfolio Balance Approach to Exchange Rate during Managed Float: An Empirical Evidence from India

Any global economic and financial disturbance affects trade and capital flows of our economy through exchange rate movements. The portfolio balance (PB) approach considers the capital flows as an additional variable explaining the exchange rate movements. This approach assumes domestic and foreign bonds to be imperfect substitutes. The bonds bearing high risk carry comparatively higher return in the form of risk premium. This study attempts to re-examine the empirical soundness of the PB model in respect of Indian rupee/ US dollar (INR/US $) exchange rate. It covers the period from 2000: 1 to 2023:1. Augmented Dickey Fuller test and Phillip Perron tests are used to test stationarity property of the variables. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) methodology of regression is used for the purpose of estimation. Autocorrelation problem is dealt with by using the Cochrane Orcutt procedure. The PB model is estimated in naïve form as well as in partial adjustment form. The empirical finding shows that the PB model works well in partial adjustment framework rather than in its naïve form with speed of adjustment being three to four quarters. The money supply differential and relative real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are identified as significant variables whereas the bond holding variable remained insignificant. However, in the long run, the model did not work. It is suggested that the fiscal and monetary policies that enhance capital spending in productive sectors should be implemented to achieve a gradually appreciating exchange rate.

Effect of Monetary Indicators on Agricultural Prices: Evidence from Turkiye

This study sought to reveal the effects of Turkish Lira and US dollar exchange rate (EXR), money supply (M2) on agricultural commodity producers’ prices. The direction and the size of the relationship among the data was estimated using VECM Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results reveal that the causality runs from M2 to agricultural price (AP) in the short run, but not from AP to M2. In the long run the effect of EXR is more than M2. The coefficient of error correction term in the agricultural price equation is 0.0726 and is statistically significant at 1%. Referring to it, all of the system instability can be adjusted approximately in 14 months. This research shows that the exchange rate (EXR) and money supply (M2) have important long-run effects on agricultural prices (AP). In order to control agricultural prices, it is necessary to follow these macro variables closely.

The Influence of World Gold Prices, World Oil Prices, and US Dollar (USD) Exchange Rate on the Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) Period 2013-2022

This study intends to decide the impact of world gold costs, world oil costs, and the US dollar (USD) conversion scale on the Indonesian Composite Record (IHSG) during the period 2013-2022. The strategy utilized in this study is the Quantitative Clear Technique utilizing auxiliary information from finance yippee, list mundi, BPS, and IDX for the years 2013-2022. The information examination strategy utilized in this exploration incorporates exemplary supposition tests, different direct relapse investigation, speculation testing (T-test and F-test), and coefficient of assurance (R2) test. The aftereffects of this exploration demonstrate that the factors of world gold costs and world oil costs don't altogether influence the IHSG during the period 2013-2022. The USD swapping scale variable essentially affects the IHSG during the period 2013-2022. In addition, the IHSG is significantly influenced by the global oil and gold prices, as well as the USD exchange rate, from 2013 to 2022. The results of the coefficient of determination (R2) test show that the IHSG can be affected by world gold prices, world oil prices, and the USD exchange rate as a whole by 64.1%

Prediksi Harga Emas di Indonesia Menggunakan Gated Recurrent Unit

Prediction system for the price of gold in Indonesia using a machine learning algorithm, namely the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), with influencing variables being the closing price of PT. Aneka Tambang's stock and the closing price of the US dollar exchange rate. The main objective of developing this system is to provide accurate and reliable information about the gold price trends for the next 7 days to the general public, investors, and other relevant parties. The dataset used consists of historical data for the closing prices of gold, the closing prices of PT. Aneka Tambang's stock, and the closing prices of the US dollar exchange rate, obtained from Yahoo Finance's website from January 2018 to October 2023. The dataset was pre-processed by extracting the dates from the three data sources used. In the results of training the GRU model for prediction, the best results were achieved with hyperparameters of 70% training data, 30% testing data, a timestep of 20, 50 epochs, and a batch size of 16, with an R-Squared value of 0.97, an MAE of 300.17, and an RMSE of 17.33. With the development of this system, it is expected to provide guidance for the general public, investors, and related parties in making timely decisions regarding gold purchases and to enhance their understanding of gold price movements in Indonesia.

Impact of Models and Eigenvalues on Gold Price Forecasting

The burgeoning synergy between computer science and finance has fostered an increasing integration of these domains. Machine learning has become a prevalent tool in aiding financial analysis and forecasting. Compared to traditional forecasting techniques, machine learning-based models exhibit enhanced accuracy and broader applicability. This study introduces three models, namely linear regression, random forest, and support vector machine, to analyze and predict gold prices. The influence of Eigenvalues on model performance is also examined. In the end, the support vector machine model constructed by using two kinds of US dollar exchange rates, US Treasury bond interest rates, and the 10-day moving average of gold prices and passed cross-validation obtained the best model performance evaluation index, and its R2 index reached nearly 0.99. It can be concluded from this study that the performance of the model is poor when only one eigenvalue is used to build the model, while for the case of building a model with multiple eigenvalues, the contribution of the U.S. Treasury bond rate to the improvement of the performance of the prediction model is the smallest. Therefore, appropriately increasing the number of eigenvalues is conducive to improving the performance of the model, and selecting the types of eigenvalues reasonably is also conducive to improving the accuracy of the model.

A short history of the USD and a Reflection on the Current World Order

Economic integration has emerged as a significant concern due to its potential threats to local culture, social stability, and economic growth. Led by the United States, Western countries have adopted economic integration as a means to further their global political and economic interests. The dominance of the US dollar in the global economy empowers the US to manipulate world markets and exert control over other nations' economies. This paper delves into the evolution and historical significance of the US dollar, with a specific focus on its influence on the Chinese economy. It investigates the economic, political, and other implications of US dollar exchange rate fluctuations on China, particularly in relation to Chinese-US trade and import-export activities. This study introduces a novel perspective on the potential impacts of the US dollar exchange rate on China's economic relations with the United States. The paper concludes by proposing measures and countermeasures from China's standpoint to identify viable solutions.The literature review section provides a comprehensive overview of the historical evolution of the US dollar, drawing from the works of Ferguson, Marthur, Duncan, and other researchers. It traces the journey of the US dollar from its origins in colonial America, through the establishment of the gold standard, the impact of wars and crises, to the transition to the Bretton Woods system. The review also highlights the US dollar's central role as a dominant currency in international trade and the leverage it grants the United States in imposing trade sanctions and influencing other countries. In conclusion, the abstract underscores the urgency for reform in the international monetary system to mitigate the adverse effects of the US dollar on the global economy. It advocates for a more independent and equitable system that fosters fair economic relations among nations. Addressing the challenges posed by economic integration and the dominance of the US dollar is essential for safeguarding local cultures, social stability, and sustainable economic growth worldwide. By exploring the impacts on China's economy, this study contributes valuable insights to develop effective strategies for fostering a balanced and mutually beneficial global economic landscape.

The Analysis and Countermeasures of US Dollar Exchange Rate on China\'s Import and Export Trade

This paper investigates the intricate relationship between the Chinese exchange rate and the US dollar, particularly amidst a low-growth economic environment and the potential impact on trade dynamics. Set against the backdrop of the 2008 financial crisis, concerns have arisen over China's substantial dollar-denominated debt stock and the possibility of a sell-off that could devalue the US dollar and impact the global economy. As the post-Covid recession is expected to weaken the US dollar, this study aims to explore potential US countermeasures to maintain the currency's strength. The analysis suggests that China should transition from an export-led development strategy to a more domestically focused approach, promoting industrial modernization, implementing strategic economic adjustments, and enhancing the management and regulation of foreign exchange reserves. Active participation in East Asian monetary cooperation and the establishment of a regional monetary system in East Asia are also recommended. The paper highlights the influence of the US dollar exchange rate on China's import and export trade, illustrating how fluctuations in the exchange rate impact trade volumes and different sectors. To mitigate these effects, China should concentrate on developing advanced industries, modernizing traditional sectors, accelerating new urbanization, and stimulating domestic consumption. Additionally, the government should optimize the external trade services system by reducing burdens on enterprises, deepening tariff facilitation reforms, and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises. In conclusion, comprehending the complex relationship between the Chinese exchange rate and the US dollar is crucial for maintaining global trade stability. Implementing the recommended countermeasures can assist both countries in overcoming economic challenges and fostering mutually beneficial trade relations. By carefully navigating the dynamics between these two currencies, governments can strengthen their economies and contribute to a more stable and prosperous global trade environment.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Fluctuations in the RMB to US Dollar Exchange Rate

This article is based on the 2022 exchange rate fluctuation curve of the RMB against the USD and analyzes the factors affecting the fluctuation of the RMB against the USD exchange rate. The analysis reveals that the main influencing factors on the exchange rate include domestic economic conditions, international factors, interest rate levels, international balance of payments, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the domestic economic environment, factors such as economic growth rate, social investment, consumer spending, employment situation, and inflation rate also play significant roles in influencing the RMB exchange rate. The analysis presented in this article holds significant practical significance for maintaining stability in China's foreign exchange market.

A Study of Bayesian Quantile Regression for Forecasting RMB Exchange Rates

Accurate forecasting of the RMB exchange rate is crucial for global financial market participants. This study proposes a Bayesian quantile regression approach to enhance the forecasting method. This paper uses RMB and US dollar exchange rate data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange from 2018 to 2022 to build a Bayesian quantile regression model and empirically analyze the RMB exchange rate forecast. The results show that the proposed Bayesian quantile regression model yields accurate forecasts, with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.8329 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.2988. Furthermore, robustness and sensitivity analyses confirm the model's reliability. The findings of this study have practical implications for financial market participants and policymakers in managing and responding to foreign exchange risk.