US Dollar Exchange Rate Research Articles

Estimating volatility transmission between oil prices and the US Dollar exchange rate under structural breaks

This study examines volatility dynamics of oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate using univariate and bivariate GARCH models using data from January 2, 2000 to December 31, 2015. The modified iterative cumulative sum of square (ICSS) algorithm is employed to identify structural breaks in the variance of the two return series. I find no evidence of volatility transmission between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate if structural breaks are ignored in the model. However, after accounting for structural breaks in variance in the bivariate GARCH model, I find significant volatility transmission between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate. I also show that dynamic risk minimizing hedge ratios substantially change when breaks are incorporated in the bivariate GARCH model.

Measuring extreme risk of sustainable financial system using GJR-GARCH model trading data-based

This paper investigates the role of gold as a safe haven for stock markets and the US dollar by examining the extreme risk spillovers. The extreme risk is measured by Value at Risk (VaR), which is estimated by GJR-GARCH model based on skewed t distribution. Two test statistics of one-way and two-way Granger causality in risk are used to detect extreme risk spillovers. In general, the empirical results show that there are negative extreme risk spillovers between gold and stock markets and between gold and foreign exchange markets of US dollar, which indicate that gold can act as an effective safe haven against extreme stock and US dollar exchange rate movements. In addition, the global financial crisis can affect the safe haven role of gold.

Oil Price and Exchange Rate Nexus-Evidence From Nigeria

Price swings at international crude oil market significantly impact on macroeconomic fundamentals of oil dependent countries. Hence, understanding the relationship between oil price movement and the exchange rate has become imperative especially for oil exporting countries. This paper examines the causal effect between oil prices and Nigerian naira–US dollar exchange rate using frequency daily data for the period 12/07/2010-31/08/2017. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models were used to estimate our oil prices and nominal naira exchange rate equation. Our findings reveal a positive relation between oil price and naira exchange rate meaning that an upward movement in the price of oil causes the naira to depreciate. Conversely, any fall in oil price leads to appreciation in the value of the naira. The result has important policy implication given that 90% of the total annual foreign revenue of Nigeria comes from oil thus oil price shocks have severe impact on the Nigerian economy. This justifies the need for Nigeria’s economic diversification to minimize the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to vagaries of the international crude oil market and to delink the exchange rate and reserve movement from developments in oil prices.

Introducing Dominant Currency Pricing in the ECB's Global Macroeconomic Model

A large share of global trade being priced and invoiced primarily in US dollar rather than the exporter’s or the importer’s currency has important implications for the transmission of shocks. We introduce this “dominant currency pricing” (DCP) into ECB-Global, the ECB’s macroeconomic model for the global economy. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to incorporate DCP into a major global macroeconomic model used at central banks or international organisations. In ECB-Global, DCP affects in particular the role of expenditure-switching and the US dollar exchange rate for spillovers: In case of a shock in a non-US economy that alters the value of its currency multilaterally, expenditure-switching occurs only through imports; in case of a US shock that alters the value of the US dollar multilaterally, expenditure-switching occurs both in non-US economies’ imports and – as these are imports of their trading partners – exports. Overall, under DCP the US dollar exchange rate is a major driver of global trade, even for transactions that do not involve the US. In order to illustrate the usefulness of ECB-Global and DCP for policy analysis, we explore the implications of the euro rivaling the US dollar as a second dominant currency in global trade. According to ECB-Global, in such a scenario the global spillovers from US shocks are smaller, while those from euro area shocks are amplified; domestic euro area monetary policy effectiveness is hardly affected by the euro becoming a second globally dominant currency in trade.

America First? A US-centric View of Global Capital Flows

Both academic researchers and policymakers posit a unique role for the US in the inter-national financial system. This paper investigates the characteristics and determinants of US cross-border financial flows and examines how these contrast with those of the rest of the world. We analyse the relative importance of US, country-specific, and global variables as determinants of aggregate and bilateral US financial flows and as determinants of country-level cross-border financial flows excluding those directly involving the US. Our results indicate that variation in US variables – notably the VIX and US dollar exchange rate – has a quantitatively important influence on global financial flows, but mostly via US cross-border flows. Global and national risk indicators perform better in explaining “rest of the world” flows. Moreover, we find that the correlation between US and rest of the world flows peaks in periods of elevated uncertainty. We interpret our findings as evidence for the existence of a global financial cycle, only some of which is driven by policies and events in the US. JEL Classification: F15, F21, F36, F42, G15

Interdependence of oil prices and exchange rates: Evidence from copula-based GARCH model

This paper aims to investigate the conditional dependence structure between crude oil prices and three US dollar exchange rates (China, India and South Korea) from a new perspective using a copula-GARCH approach. Various kinds of copulas both time-invariant and time-varying dependence dynamics are fitted. Over the 2008–2018 period, the findings provide evidence of significant dependence in terms of symmetric structure between the oil prices and the exchange rate returns. Further, the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between two variables add a supplement to the explanatory ability of the model. Empirical results indicate the intercorrelation between crude oil and exchange rate movements, and provide benefits in risk diversification and inflation targeting. The findings also have significant implications for risk management, monetary policies to determine the behavior of fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries.

ASSESSMENT persistent time series hryvnia to the dollar US

Contemporary literature suggests that the effective market hypothesis is not substantiated. Instead, it suggests the Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH). Fractal markets are characterized by long-term memory. The main feature of the fractal market is that the frequency distribution of the indicator looks the same across diffe­ rent investment horizons. In such cases, it is said that for an appropriate indicator, the phenomenon of scale invariance is observed. All daily changes are correlated with all future daily changes, all weekly changes are correlated with all future weekly changes. There is no characteristic time scale, a key characteristic of the time series. The presence of memory in the time series can be characterized by the Hearst indicator. This paper analyzes the hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate for the period 04.06.14-04.01.15. Finding the Hearst index made it possible to conclude that there is or is not long-term memory in this series. The presence of long-term memory indi­ cates that the efficient market hypothesis is unjustified. The hypothesis was tested that the longer the averaging intervals are taken into account in the model, the Hearst's index decreases. The analysis does not have great predictive power, however, it allows to identify the presence or absence of long-term memory in the study process and thus to accept or reject the hypothesis of an effective market. That is, the series under study is persistent, thus demonstrating long-term me­ mory availability. Thus, since persistence is revealed, the hypothesis of an effective market for the exchange rate yield is not confirmed, but instead can be argued for the fractality of the hryvnia / dollar exchange rate yield. Therefore, the application of the proposed approach made it possible to find the Hearst rate for the hryvnia / dollar exchange rate. The value found indicates that the effective market hypothesis is not substantiated for at least such an exchange rate.

Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades

While until the mid-1990s the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries played a key role in oil pricing, during recent decades, rapid economic growth in developing economies has boosted the demand for oil, making oil prices vulnerable to a wider range of factors. We examine the impacts of oil supply and demand factors on Brent crude oil prices by developing an oil aggregate demand–aggregate supply model and empirically estimating using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time series data from 1999 to 2017. We disaggregate global oil demand into demand from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India to measure the scale of their contributions to global oil price movements. We consider the industrial production (IP) index as a determinant of the oil demand side. We find that among these three, the OECD and the PRC’s IP had a positive impact on oil prices during the estimated period. Moreover, among the factors included in the model, an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate had a significant negative impact on oil prices over the last 2 decades. We also examine the equilibrium of the oil market during the estimated period and show that oil prices were adjusting instantly, confirming the existence of the equilibrium.

Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from Us Dollar Appreciation

Different export-pricing currency paradigms have different implications for a host of issues that are critical for policymakers such as business cycle co-movement, optimal monetary policy, optimum currency areas and international monetary policy co-ordination. Unfortunately, the literature has not reached a consensus on which pricing paradigm best describes the data. Against this background, we test for the empirical relevance of dominant-currency pricing (DCP). Specifically, we first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing (PCP) and local-currency pricing (LCP). In the model, under DCP the output spillovers from shocks that appreciate the US dollar multilaterally decline with an economy’s export-import US dollar pricing share differential, i.e. the difference between the share of an economy’s exports and imports that are priced in the dominant currency. Underlying this prediction is a change in an economy’s net exports in response to multilateral changes in the US dollar exchange rate that arises because of differences in the extent to which exports and imports are priced in the dominant currency. We then confront this prediction of DCP with the data in a sample of up to 46 advanced and emerging market economies for the time period from 1995 to 2018. Specifically, controlling for other cross-border transmission channels, we document that consistent with the prediction from DCP the output spillovers from US dollar appreciation correlate negatively with recipient economies’ export-import US dollar invoicing share differentials. We document that these findings are robust to considering US demand, US monetary policy and exogenous exchange rate shocks as a trigger of US dollar appreciation, as well as to accounting for the role of commodity trade in US dollar invoicing. JEL Classification: F42, E52, C50

Relationship Between the Volatility of Stock Returns and the Volatility of Macroeconomic Variables: A Case of Turkey

In this paper, we examined the relationship between BIST-100 Index (SPI) and a set of macroeconomic variables volatility using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables has been subjected to serious economic research. A stock market plays important role for the reallocation of funds in many sectors of an economy. The macroeconomic factors make investors to choose the stock because investors are interested to know about the factors affecting the working of stock to manage their portfolios. Some investors show the stock prices volatility is based on directional trend in the stock prices but actually volatility is amount of fluctuation in stock prices. For this purpose we used the volatility of the variables. This study period 2006-2018 stock market using monthly data for Turkey is to examine the relationship between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility. We used the macroeconomic variables volatility these are industrial production (IP), money supply (M1), inflation rate (CPI), US dollar equivalent exchange rate (EX) and oil prices (OIL). We used montly data for the period between january 2006 and december 2018. Asymmetric GARCH models are used for the series volatility. The best performing GARCH model in these models are considered as volatlity. Exchange rate and industrial production index have an important effect on stock market volatility.

The Standalone and the Portfolio Risk of the Rogers Energy Commodity Index

This paper tackles the rather recent weekly period from January 18, 2005 to February 28, 2018, encompassing 523 observations. The portfolio is constructed from the perspective either of a US investor or of a Lebanese one, since the US dollar foreign exchange rate was pegged during the above whole period. The portfolio consists of an investment in the US S & P 500 stock market index and in three Rogers international commodity indexes: agricultural, energy, and metals. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the diversification benefits of the energy commodity index. These benefits arise from the fall in the volatility of the investment portfolio when it is compared to an investment in the energy index only, or in the S & P 500 only. The procedure follows the seminal approach of Markowitz. The inputs of the model are the variance/covariance matrix, the average log returns, and the condition that all investment shares should sum up to 1. The outputs, obtained by matrix manipulation, are the optimal investment shares in the four assets, the volatilities of the optimal portfolios, the characteristics of the efficient frontier, the relation between portfolio shares and the expected, or required return, and finally, the predicted Capital Market Line (CML). The evidence shows that, by holding a portfolio composed of the above four assets, the volatilities are substantially reduced. Moreover, and since short sales are allowed in the model, all optimal investment shares in the energy commodity asset are negative, meaning that in the optimal portfolios the positions in the energy index are short positions. The paper points to the significantly high relative riskiness of the energy index, as a stand-alone asset, or as an aggressive and speculative investment on the CML, and to the substantial portfolio benefits of shorting this index.

The Impact Of Inflation, US Dollar Exchange Rate And Land Transportation Freight Towards Non-Oil And Natural Gas Export To America, Japan, Australia And England Through Surabaya Port In The Year Of 2015-2017

Indonesia is one of the countries which frequently administer both export and import activities with many countries in the world. Export activities done by Indonesia are influenced by non-oil and natural gas export. This research analyses the impact of inflation, US Dollar exchange rate, and land transportation freight towards non-oil and natural gas export activities to America, Japan, Australia, and England through Surabaya Port in the year of 2015 to 2017. Furthermore, this research uses quantitative method and the data collected are gathered from secondary. The data analysis used in this research is multiple linear regressions. The result of this research shows that all independent variables which are inflation (X 1 ), US Dollar exchange rate (X 2 ), and land transportation freight (X 3 ) bring non-significant impact towards non-oil and natural gas export to four countries mentioned before. However, in the non-oil and natural gas export activities to Australia, the US Dollar exchange rate variable (X 2 ) brings significant impact. Meanwhile, land transportation freight variable (X 3 ) is significant towards the export activities to England.

An empirical test for the effectiveness of central bank interventions in foreign exchange markets: An application to the Canadian and Swiss Central Banks

Abstract. This paper investigates the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention of central banks of Canada and Switzerland. We examine the effectiveness of Canada and Switzerland interventions policies on Canadian dollar against US dollar and Swiss franc against US dollar exchange rates volatility over the 1980-2014 period. A behavioral exchange rate equation is estimated with instrumental variables methodology. The main results indicate that interventions generally reduce exchange rates volatility. However, the Swiss National Bank seems to be more efficient by stabilizing the Swiss franc than the Bank of Canada, whose interventions, despite its effectiveness, remains weak. Keywords. Volatility, Exchange rate, Official international reserves. JEL. E51, E52, E58.

Oil Prices and the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model

This paper analyzes how changes in global oil prices affect the US dollar (USD) exchange rate based on the monetary model of exchange rate. We find evidence indicating a negative relationship between oil prices and the USD exchange rate against 12 currencies. Specifically, the analysis of the impulse response function shows that the depreciation rate of the USD exchange rate ranges between 0.002 and 0.018 percentage points as a result of a one-standard deviation positive shock to the real price of crude oil. In the same vein, the forecast error variance decomposition analysis reveals that variation in the USD exchange rate is largely attributable to changes in the price of oil rather than monetary fundamentals. In last, the out-of-sample forecast exercise indicates that oil prices enhance the predictability power of the monetary model of exchange rate.

Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: The Case of Mexico

This paper investigates the effect of domestic and global uncertainty on the volatility of the Mexican peso US dollar exchange rate during the period January 1999 - July 2018. The analysis is performed in two stages. In the first stage, we derive an exchange rate volatility measure by estimating a univariate GARCH(1,1) model. In the second stage, we regress the estimated exchange rate volatility on domestic and global uncertainty proxies, built with data from the survey of professional forecasters conducted monthly by Banco de Mexico since 1999. In order to capture the expectations of a broad set of economic agents, we also include as regressors both the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) and Baker, Bloom and Davis global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). A trade uncertainty index based on Google trends is incorporated in the model to analyze if uncertainty regarding NAFTA and Mexico’s trade liberalization policies has had an impact on the exchange rate volatility. The price of a barrel of Mexican oil mix is also included since the price volatility of this commodity has been shown to affect the peso US dollar exchange rate volatility. In order to control for the surprise component of macroeconomic data announcements the analysis controls for an inflation surprise and a GDP surprise. Finally, we assess whether the effect of domestic political uncertainty and domestic economic uncertainty on exchange rate volatility is amplified in election and recession periods. The main results show that the domestic political uncertainty measure, the VIX and the global EPU indices are the main drivers of the exchange rate volatility. We also find that in recession periods, higher domestic economic uncertainty is associated with higher exchange rate volatility. These findings are robust to alternative exchange rate volatility proxies and econometric techniques.

The Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Ukraine’s Export

In the article the author determined the main directions of foreign economic activity of the country and was established that the main course for Ukraine is foreign trade and international investment activity. The author done analysis of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for 2017 shows the passive balance of trade balance. The analyzed indicators of foreign trade balance show that in 2017 Ukraine economy was opened (0.93), i. e. it is risk-prone, import-dependent (46.8%), the share of exports in the total amount of the gross domestic product was 45.8%, the coefficient of coverage the export over import was 98%.
 The calculated coefficient of the international intraspecific specialization of the country shows that Ukraine is import-dependent from the following groups of goods and services: works of art (–75,5%), polymer materials, plastics and articles (–75,0%), means of land transport, aircraft, floating means (–68.4%), optical and photographic equipment (-59.9%), state and government services (–99.5%), royalties (–83.3 %), financial services (–74.2%).
 The author was determined and substantiated the factors influencing the tendencies of export development of Ukraine, which were the basis of correlation-regression analysis. The export links with all selected factors based on the pair correlation coefficients are analyzed. A high correlation was found between exports with imports (0.987), a rather close but inverse relationship with the US dollar (–0.887), a significant and direct correlation between export of FDI to Ukraine (0.693) and a noticeable but inverse relationship exports with GDP (–0.693) and consumer price index (–0.690).
 During the analysis, the author built two regressive models of export dependence from import transactions and under the influence of the exchange rate. The author substantiated the effect of the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate on exports of goods and services, and predicted Ukraine’s exports in the short period.

The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies

Oil is an important energy resource. Fluctuation in international crude oil prices affects all aspects of the economy. The exchange rate is one of the important channels for the international crude oil price shock to pass to the real economy and financial markets. The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of oil-importing countries has attracted more and more attention. The US dollar is the main invoice and settlement currency of the international oil market. The change of the US dollar exchange rate will inevitably affect the international crude oil price. By combing the relevant classic literature and recent literature, the relationship between international crude oil prices and the exchange rate of oil-importing countries is discussed. Due to the different methods of use, the relationship between the two is not conclusive. This paper probes into the impact paths of national crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of oil-importing countries, but the influence level depends on the relative degree of each country affected by oil prices, which cannot be generalized. The article summarizes the methods of studying the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, most of which are studying the causal relationship between the two and their mutual influence, nonlinear structure, and volatility spillover effects. Through reviewing and summarizing the relevant literatures, this paper argues that exploring the inherent laws of oil price volatility buffer under different exchange rate regimes and studying the transmission mode and intensity of oil price fluctuations on exchange rate effects can be the focus of future research.

An Empirical Examination of Rational Expectations Hypothesis in the Foreign Exchange Market

The Efficient Market (EMH) and Rational Expectation Hypothesis (REH) have been examined for the Canadian Dollar / US Dollar and Swiss Frank / US Dollar exchange rates using data from February 1988 to May 1999 published by the Financial Times’ Currency Forecaster. Using unit root, and restricted co-integration techniques, we find that one-month ahead forecast is rational for the Swiss Frank / US Dollar exchange rate. However, one-month-ahead Canadian Dollar forecast is not rational. The study shows that when forecasting errors are corrected for serial correlation because of moving average process, three-month-ahead forecasts become rational for both the currencies. The twelve-month-ahead forecasts are not rational for any of the currencies.

Exchange Rate Risk and Corporate Hedging: Evidence from Turkey

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate risk on corporate hedging in Turkey. Our panel logit analysis for the period 2009–2015 favors the financial distress hypothesis of hedging rather than the agency cost or investment opportunities hypotheses. The US dollar exchange rate affects the likelihood of currency risk hedging more than the conventional firm-specific determinants of corporate hedging especially after the Fed tapering period. Our findings reveal that, as the dollar exchange rate rises, firms increase their hedging activity since they carry considerable amount of debt in dollars, particularly aftermath of the global financial crisis.

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR, TINGKAT BUNGA, INFLASI, DAN JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM SEKTOR KEUANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA (BEI) (Studi Kasus pada Indek Harga Saham Sektor Keuangan Di BEI)

In the midst of uncertain economic condition, nowadays people tend to secure the potential assests they have, and think how to take advantage of the assets they have in order to keep it high in value for a long period of time. One of the way is by invest in the form of securities traded in the capital market. That is why every investor in the capital market urgently require a relevant informations on trend of transactions as reference in making investment decisions. One of the required information is stock market index. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect 0f macro economic indicators, US Dollar exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and money supply on stock market index in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The method used in this research is using multiple linear regression. Data obtained from SEKI - Bank Indonesia (Economic and Financial Statistics - Central Bank of The Republic of Indonesia) and IDX (Indonesia Stock Exchange), in the form of secondary data of monthly period in year 2011 – 2015, collected by documentation techniniques. The results showed that partially variable of US Dollar exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, and money supply have no effect on the stock price index of financial sector. Whereas universally interest rates have a significant positive effect on the stock price index of financial sector. Over all simultaneously US Dollar exchange rates, interest rates, inflation rates, and money supply have an effect on the stock price index of financial sector.
 
 Keywords: exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply, and stock market index.