The sustainability of production and the US Dollar exchange rate influence Indonesian Cocoa and Pepper exports and their competitiveness

Abstract

This research aims to determine the sustainability of production factors and the US dollar exchange rate on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021, as well as their competitiveness with Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan during the period of 2017-2021. The data analysis methods used were Multiple Linear Regression, RAC, and EPD. The research results indicate that production sustainability has a significant effect on Indonesian cocoa and pepper exports for the 2002-2021 period, while the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a significant effect on cocoa exports but an insignificant effect on pepper exports. The competitiveness of Indonesian cocoa for the 2017-2021 period, using the RCA method, is strong in Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan but weak in Thailand and Vietnam. However, with the EPD method, exports to Singapore and Vietnam are in the Raising Star position, to Thailand and Japan in the Falling Star position, and to Malaysia in the Lost Opportunity position. With the RCA method for the 2017-2021 period, Indonesia’s pepper competitiveness is weak in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan, but with the EPD method, it is Raising Star in Malaysia and Vietnam, Falling Star in Thailand and Japan, and Lost Opportunity in Singapore.