Upward Mass Flux Research Articles

LES study of precipitation/condensation dependance on cumulus clouds dynamics

Abstract. Parameters affecting condensation/evaporation rates (CR/ER) in trade wind cumulus clouds were analyzed using LES model simulations. The model was initialized with data observed during the RICO field project, and simulated in a rather large 50.0×50.0×4 km3 domain. 2031 clouds were analyzed seeking relationships between CR/ER and thermo-dynamical cloud parameters. The condensation/evaporation rates were analyzed by stratifying the clouds by their size. The analyzed parameters included, among others, integral mass and buoyancy fluxes, as well as cloud and rain water and drop concentration. The results revealed rather remarkable relationship between integral condensation/evaporation rate and integral upward mass flux. Identified relathionship may be useful for parameterization of subgrid latent heat in meso and large-scale models.

Idealized Simulations of City-Storm Interactions in a Two-Dimensional Framework

Numerous studies have identified spatial variability in convective parameters such as rainfall totals and lightning flashes in the vicinity of large urban areas, yet many questions remain regarding the storm-scale processes that are altered during interaction with a city as well as which urban features are most responsible for storm modification. This study uses an idealized, two-dimensional cloud model to investigate structural and evolutionary changes in a squall line as it passes over a simplified representation of a large city. A parameter space exploration is done in which the parameters of the city—surface temperature and surface roughness length—are systemically increased relative to the region surrounding the idealized city. The resultant suite of simulations demonstrates that storm parameters such as vertical velocity, hydrometeor mass, upward mass flux, and buoyant accelerations are enhanced when the storm passes over the idealized city. No such enhancement occurs in the control simulation without an idealized city.

Cold‐pool‐driven convective initiation: using causal graph analysis to determine what convection‐permitting models are missing

AbstractCold‐pool‐driven convective initiation is investigated in high‐resolution, convection‐permitting simulations with a focus on the diurnal cycle and organization of convection and the sensitivity to grid size. Simulations of four different days over Germany were performed using the ICON‐LEM model with grid sizes from 156 to 625 m. In these simulations, we identify cold pools, cold‐pool boundaries and initiated convection. Convection is triggered much more efficiently in the vicinity of cold pools than in other regions and can provide as much as 50% of total convective initiation, in particular in the late afternoon. By comparing different model resolutions, we find that cold pools are more frequent, smaller and less intense in lower‐resolution simulations. Furthermore, their gust fronts are weaker and less likely to trigger new convection. To identify how model resolution affects this triggering probability, we use a linear causal graph analysis. In doing so, we postulate a graph structure with potential causal pathways and then apply multi‐linear regression accordingly. We find a dominant, systematic effect: reducing grid sizes directly reduces upward mass flux at the gust front, which causes weaker triggering probabilities. These findings are expected to be even more relevant for km‐scale, numerical weather prediction models. We thus expect that a better representation of cold‐pool‐driven convective initiation will improve forecasts of convective precipitation.

Decomposing the response of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation to an abrupt quadrupling in CO<sub>2</sub>

Abstract. We perform time-slice experiments using HadGEM3-A to decompose the long-term (years 101–150) response of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) to an abrupt quadrupling in CO2 (4×CO2) into (1) a rapid atmospheric adjustment, (2) a contribution from the global-average sea surface temperature (SST) change (+3.4 K), and (3) an SST pattern effect. The SST fields are derived from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Two further experiments explore the impact on the BDC of the spread in global-average SST response to 4×CO2 across the CMIP5 models (range 2.1–4.9 K). At 70 hPa (10 hPa) the annual-mean tropical upward mass flux increases by 45 % (35 %) due to the 4×CO2 perturbation. At 70 hPa, around 70 % of the increase is from the global-uniform SST warming, with the remainder coming in similar contributions from the rapid adjustment and SST pattern effect. In contrast, at 10 hPa the increase in mass flux comes mainly from the rapid adjustment (∼40 %) and the uniform SST warming (∼45 %), with a small contribution from the SST pattern. At 10 hPa, the effect of the multi-model spread in global-mean SST is comparable in magnitude to the rapid adjustment. Conversely, at 70 hPa the effect of spread in global-mean SST is substantially larger than both the rapid adjustment and the SST pattern effect. We derive an approximately linear sensitivity of the tropical upward mass flux to global surface air temperature change of 0.62×109 kg s−1 K−1 (9 % K−1) at 70 hPa and 0.10×109 kg s−1 K−1 (6 % K−1) at 10 hPa. The results confirm the most important factor for the acceleration of the BDC in the lower stratosphere under increased CO2 is global SST changes. We also quantify for the first time that the rapid adjustment to CO2 is of similar importance to SSTs for the increased BDC in the upper stratosphere. This demonstrates a potential for a fast and slow timescale of the response of the BDC to greenhouse gas forcing, with the relative prominence of those timescales being height dependent.

Contributions of Convective and Orographic Gravity Waves to the Brewer–Dobson Circulation Estimated from NCEP CFSR

Abstract Contributions of convective gravity waves (CGWs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) to the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) are examined and compared to those from resolved waves. OGW drag (OGWD) is provided by NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), while CGW drag (CGWD) is obtained from an offline calculation of a physically based CGW parameterization with convective heating and background data provided by CFSR. CGWD contributes to the shallow branch of the BDC regardless of the season, while OGWD contributes to both the shallow and deep branches except for the summertime, when OGWs hardly propagate into the stratosphere. At 70 hPa, the annual-mean tropical upward mass fluxes from Eliassen–Palm flux divergence (EPD), OGWD, and CGWD are 68%, 7%, and 4% of the total mass flux, respectively. The tropical upward mass flux at 70 hPa shows an increasing trend during the time period from 1979 to 1998, with 28%, 18%, and 6% of the trend driven by EPD, OGWD, and CGWD, respectively. The width of the turnaround latitudes tends to narrow for the streamfunctions induced by OGWD and CGWD but tends to widen for that induced by EPD. The contributions of GWD from MERRA (MERRA-2) to the climatology and long-term trend of the BDC are 7% (7%) and 13% (4%), respectively, somewhat smaller than the contributions of CGWD plus OGWD, which are estimated from CFSR to be 12% and 20%, respectively.

The effect of atmospheric nudging on the stratospheric residual circulation in chemistry–climate models

Abstract. We perform the first multi-model intercomparison of the impact of nudged meteorology on the stratospheric residual circulation using hindcast simulations from the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We examine simulations over the period 1980–2009 from seven models in which the meteorological fields are nudged towards a reanalysis dataset and compare these with their equivalent free-running simulations and the reanalyses themselves. We show that for the current implementations, nudging meteorology does not constrain the mean strength of the stratospheric residual circulation and that the inter-model spread is similar, or even larger, than in the free-running simulations. The nudged models generally show slightly stronger upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere compared to the free-running versions and exhibit marked differences compared to the directly estimated residual circulation from the reanalysis dataset they are nudged towards. Downward control calculations applied to the nudged simulations reveal substantial differences between the climatological lower-stratospheric tropical upward mass flux (TUMF) computed from the modelled wave forcing and that calculated directly from the residual circulation. This explicitly shows that nudging decouples the wave forcing and the residual circulation so that the divergence of the angular momentum flux due to the mean motion is not balanced by eddy motions, as would typically be expected in the time mean. Overall, nudging meteorological fields leads to increased inter-model spread for most of the measures of the mean climatological stratospheric residual circulation assessed in this study. In contrast, the nudged simulations show a high degree of consistency in the inter-annual variability in the TUMF in the lower stratosphere, which is primarily related to the contribution to variability from the resolved wave forcing. The more consistent inter-annual variability in TUMF in the nudged models also compares more closely with the variability found in the reanalyses, particularly in boreal winter. We apply a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to separate the drivers of inter-annual and long-term variations in the simulated TUMF; this explains up to ∼75 % of the variance in TUMF in the nudged simulations. The MLR model reveals a statistically significant positive trend in TUMF for most models over the period 1980–2009. The TUMF trend magnitude is generally larger in the nudged models compared to their free-running counterparts, but the intermodel range of trends doubles from around a factor of 2 to a factor of 4 due to nudging. Furthermore, the nudged models generally do not match the TUMF trends in the reanalysis they are nudged towards for trends over different periods in the interval 1980–2009. Hence, we conclude that nudging does not strongly constrain long-term trends simulated by the chemistry–climate model (CCM) in the residual circulation. Our findings show that while nudged simulations may, by construction, produce accurate temperatures and realistic representations of fast horizontal transport, this is not typically the case for the slower zonal mean vertical transport in the stratosphere. Consequently, caution is required when using nudged simulations to interpret the behaviour of stratospheric tracers that are affected by the residual circulation.

The climatology of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and the contribution of gravity waves

Abstract. The climatology of residual mean circulation – a main component of the Brewer–Dobson circulation – and the potential contribution of gravity waves (GWs) are examined for the annual mean state and each season in the whole stratosphere based on the transformed-Eulerian mean zonal momentum equation using four modern reanalysis datasets. Resolved and unresolved waves in the datasets are respectively designated as Rossby waves and GWs, although resolved waves may contain some GWs. First, the potential contribution of Rossby waves (RWs) to residual mean circulation is estimated from Eliassen–Palm flux divergence. The rest of residual mean circulation, from which the potential RW contribution and zonal mean zonal wind tendency are subtracted, is examined as the potential GW contribution, assuming that the assimilation process assures sufficient accuracy of the three components used for this estimation. The GWs contribute to drive not only the summer hemispheric part of the winter deep branch and low-latitude part of shallow branches, as indicated by previous studies, but they also cause a higher-latitude extension of the deep circulation in all seasons except for summer. This GW contribution is essential to determine the location of the turn-around latitude. The autumn circulation is stronger and wider than that of spring in the equinoctial seasons, regardless of almost symmetric RW and GW contributions around the Equator. This asymmetry is attributable to the existence of the spring-to-autumn pole circulation, corresponding to the angular momentum transport associated with seasonal variation due to the radiative process. The potential GW contribution is larger in September-to-November than in March-to-May in both hemispheres. The upward mass flux is maximized in the boreal winter in the lower stratosphere, while it exhibits semi-annual variation in the upper stratosphere. The boreal winter maximum in the lower stratosphere is attributable to stronger RW activity in both hemispheres than in the austral winter. Plausible deficiencies of current GW parameterizations are discussed by comparing the potential GW contribution and the parameterized GW forcing.

Dynamics of Lower-Tropospheric Vorticity in Idealized Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Formation

Abstract Idealized simulations are conducted using the Cloud Model version 1 (CM1) to explore the mechanism of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis from a preexisting midtropospheric vortex that forms in radiative–convective equilibrium. With lower-tropospheric air approaching near saturation during TC genesis, convective cells become stronger, along with the intensifying updrafts and downdrafts and the larger area coverage of updrafts relative to downdrafts. Consequently, the low-level vertical mass flux increases, inducing vorticity amplification above the boundary layer. Of interest is that while surface cold pools help organize lower-tropospheric updrafts, genesis still proceeds, only slightly delayed, if subcloud evaporation cooling and cold pool intensity are drastically reduced. More detrimental is the disruption of near saturation through the introduction of weak vertical wind shear. The lower-tropospheric dry air suppresses the strengthening of convection, leading to weaker upward mass flux and much slower near-surface vortex spinup. We also find that surface spinup is similarly inhibited by decreasing surface drag despite the existence of a nearly saturated column, whereas larger drag accelerates spinup. Increased vorticity above the boundary layer is followed by the emergence of a horizontal pressure gradient through the depth of the boundary layer. Then the corresponding convergence resulting from the gradient imbalance in the frictional boundary layer causes vorticity amplification near the surface. It is suggested that near saturation in the lower troposphere is critical for increasing the mass flux and vorticity just above the boundary layer, but it is necessary yet insufficient because the spinup is strongly governed by boundary layer dynamics.

Surface Rainfall Processes during the Genesis Period of Tropical Cyclone Durian (2001)

The rainfall processes during the formation of tropical cyclone (TC) Durian (2001) were investigated quantitatively using the three-dimensional (3D) WRF-based precipitation equation. The rain rate (PS) decreased slightly as the TC approached to formation, and then increased as Durian began to intensify. The rate of moisture-related processes (QWV) in the equation contributed around 80% to PS before TC genesis, and made more contribution during and after TC genesis. The rate of hydrometeor-related processes (QCM) contributed about 20% before TC formation, followed by less contribution during and after TC formation. QWV were dominated by the 3D moisture flux advection rate (QWVA), while the surface evaporation rate (QWVE) also played an important role. Just before TC genesis, moisture from QWVA and QWVE helped the local atmosphere moisten (negative QWVL). QCM were determined by the 3D hydrometeor advection rates (QCLA and QCIA) and the local change rates of hydrometeors (QCLL and QCIL). During TC formation, QCM largely decreased and then reactivated as Durian began to intensify, accompanied by the development of TC cloud. Both the height and the strength of the net latent heating center associated with microphysical processes generally lowered before and during TC genesis, resulting mainly from lessening deposition and condensation. The downward shift of the net latent heating center induced a more bottom-heavy upward mass flux profile, suggesting to promote lower-tropospheric convergence in a shallower layer, vorticity amplification and TC spin-up.

Impact of Mid- and Upper-Level Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensification: A Modeling Study of Durian (2001)

The impact of mid- and upper-level dry air, represented by low relative humidity (RH) values, on the genesis of tropical cyclone (TC) Durian (2001) in the South China Sea was investigated by a series of numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The mid-level RH was lowered in different regions relative to TC Durian (2001)’s genesis location. Results suggest that the location of dry air was important to Durian (2001)’s genesis and intensification. The rapid development of the TC was accompanied by sustained near-saturated mid- and upper-level air, whereas low humidity decelerated its development. Water vapor budget analysis showed that moisture at mid and upper levels was mainly supplied by the vertical convergence of moisture flux and the divergence terms, and consumed by the condensation process. The horizontal convergence of moisture flux term supplied moisture in the air moistening process but consumed moisture in the air drying process. With a dryer mid- and upper-level environment, convective and stratiform precipitation were both inhibited. The upward mass fluxes and the diabatic heating rates associated with these two precipitation types were also suppressed. Generally, convection played the dominant role, since the impact of the stratiform process on vertical mass transportation and diabatic heating was much weaker. The vorticity budget showed that the negative vorticity convergence term, which was closely related to the inhibited convection, caused the vorticity to decrease above the lower troposphere in a dryer environment. The negative vorticity tendency is suggested to slow down the vertical coherence and the development rate of TCs.

The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections

The Humboldt coastal upwelling system in the eastern South Pacific ocean is one of the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. A weakening of the upwelling activity could lead to severe ecological impacts. As coastal upwelling in eastern boundary systems is mainly driven by wind stress, most studies so far have analysed wind patterns change through the 20th and 21st Centuries in order to understand and project the phenomenon under specific forcing scenarios. Mixed results have been reported, and analyses from General Circulation Models have suggested even contradictory trends of wind stress for the Humboldt system. In this study, we analyse the ocean upwelling directly in 13 models contributing to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in both the historical simulations and an extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The upwelling is represented by the upward ocean mass flux, a newly-included variable that represents the vertical water transport. Additionally, wind stress, ocean stratification, Ekman layer depth and thermocline depth were also analysed to explore their interactions with coastal upwelling throughout the period studied. The seasonal cycle of coastal upwelling differs between the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas. At lower latitudes, the upwelling season spans most of the autumn, winter and spring. However, in the Southern Humboldt area the upwelling season takes place in spring and the summertime with downwelling activity in winter. This persists throughout the Historical and RCP8.5 simulations. For both the Northern and Southern Humboldt areas an increasing wind stress is projected. However, different trends of upwelling intensity are observed away from the sea surface. Whereas wind stress will continue controlling the decadal variability of coastal upwelling on the whole ocean column analysed (surface to 300 m depth), an increasing disconnect with upwelling intensity is projected below 100 m depth throughout the 21st Century. This relates to an intensification of ocean stratification under global warming as shown by the sea water temperature profiles. Additionally, a divergence between the Ekman layer and thermocline depths is also evidenced. Given the interaction of upwelled nutrients and microscopic organisms essential for fish growth, a potential decline of coastal upwelling at depth could lead to unknown ecological and socio-economical effects.

Isentropic Analysis on the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Abstract An isentropic analysis technique is adopted in this study to investigate the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) predicted by an experimental real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecast system. This technique separates the vertical mass transport in terms of equivalent potential temperature θe for the rising air parcels at high entropy from the subsiding air at low entropy. It is found that as Edouard intensifies the vertical circulation becomes wider via the expansion of upward (downward) mass flux to higher (lower) θe. In the early developing stages, the asymmetric convection dominates the vertical circulation and leads to a remarkable upward mass flux maximum center in the upper troposphere. When Edouard becomes intense, the axisymmetric convection becomes important to the upper-level vertical mass transport while the asymmetric convection still dominates the low-level vertical mass transport. Development of the warm core in the eye leads to double maxima along the θe axis for both the isentropic-mean relative humidity and tangential velocity. The isentropic-mean properties such as the mid- to upper-level relative humidity, vertical velocity, and radial outflow decrease considerably while the mid- to upper-level vorticity enhances on the high-θe side before the onset of rapid intensification. The isentropic analysis also reveals that as Edouard intensifies the eye characterized by warm and dry core first forms in the low to middle troposphere and then gradually expands upward. The abovementioned results indicate that the isentropic framework may have the advantages of binning common variables with θe that could reflect the changes of the tropical cyclone structure in the inner-core region without a prior specification of the location of the storm center.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of lower stratospheric age of air spectra

Abstract. Trace gas transport in the lower stratosphere is investigated by analysing seasonal and inter-annual variations of the age of air spectrum – the probability distribution of stratospheric transit times. Age spectra are obtained using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim winds and total diabatic heating rates, and using a time-evolving boundary-impulse-response (BIER) method based on multiple tracer pulses. Seasonal age spectra show large deviations from an idealized stationary uni-modal shape. Multiple modes emerge in the spectrum throughout the stratosphere, strongest at high latitudes, caused by the interplay of seasonally varying tropical upward mass flux, stratospheric transport barriers and recirculation. Inter-annual variations in transport (e.g. quasi-biennial oscillation) cause significant modulations of the age spectrum shape. In fact, one particular QBO phase may determine the spectrum's mode during the following 2–3 years. Interpretation of the age spectrum in terms of transport contributions due to the residual circulation and mixing is generally not straightforward. It turns out that advection by the residual circulation represents the dominant pathway in the deep tropics and in the winter hemisphere extratropics above 500 K, controlling the modal age in these regions. In contrast, in the summer hemisphere, particularly in the lowermost stratosphere, mixing represents the most probable pathway controlling the modal age.

Isentropic Analysis of a Simulated Hurricane

Abstract Hurricanes, like many other atmospheric flows, are associated with turbulent motions over a wide range of scales. Here the authors adapt a new technique based on the isentropic analysis of convective motions to study the thermodynamic structure of the overturning circulation in hurricane simulations. This approach separates the vertical mass transport in terms of the equivalent potential temperature of air parcels. In doing so, one separates the rising air parcels at high entropy from the subsiding air at low entropy. This technique filters out oscillatory motions associated with gravity waves and separates convective overturning from the secondary circulation. This approach is applied here to study the flow of an idealized hurricane simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The isentropic circulation for a hurricane exhibits similar characteristics to that of moist convection, with a maximum mass transport near the surface associated with a shallow convection and entrainment. There are also important differences. For instance, ascent in the eyewall can be readily identified in the isentropic analysis as an upward mass flux of air with unusually high equivalent potential temperature. The isentropic circulation is further compared here to the Eulerian secondary circulation of the simulated hurricane to show that the mass transport in the isentropic circulation is much larger than the one in secondary circulation. This difference can be directly attributed to the mass transport by convection in the outer rainband and confirms that, even for a strongly organized flow like a hurricane, most of the atmospheric overturning is tied to the smaller scales.

Wind tunnel investigation of horizontal and vertical sand fluxes of ascending and descending sand particles in aeolian sand transport

AbstractThe horizontal and vertical sand mass fluxes in aeolian sand transport are investigated in a wind tunnel by PTV (particle tracking velocimetry). According to the particle velocity and volume fraction of each individual particle from PTV images, the total horizontal sand mass flux, the horizontal mass fluxes of ascending and descending sand particles, and upward and downward vertical sand fluxes are analyzed. The results show that the horizontal mass fluxes of ascending and descending sand particles generally decrease with the increase of height and can be described by an exponential function above about 0.03 m height. At the same friction velocity, the decay heights of the total horizontal sand mass flux and the horizontal mass fluxes of ascending and descending sand particles are very similar. The proportion of horizontal mass flux of ascending sand particles is generally about 0.3–0.42, this means the horizontal mass flux of descending sand particles makes an important contribution to the total horizontal sand mass flux. Both the upward and downward vertical sand mass fluxes generally decrease with height and they are approximately equal at the same height and friction velocity. The relation between upward (or downward) vertical sand mass flux and horizontal sand mass flux can be described by a power function. The present study is used to help understand the transport of ascending and descending sand particles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Convective sources of trajectories traversing the tropical tropopause layer

Abstract. Transit properties across the tropical tropopause layer are studied using extensive forward and backward Lagrangian diabatic trajectories between cloud tops and the reference surface 380 K. After dividing the tropical domain into 11 subregions according to the distribution of land and convection, we estimate the contribution of each region to the upward mass flux across the 380 K surface and to the vertical distribution of convective sources and transit times over the period 2005–2008. The good agreement between forward and backward statistics is the basis of the results presented here. It is found that about 85 % of the tropical parcels at 380 K originate from convective sources throughout the year. From November to April, the sources are dominated by the warm pool which accounts for up to 70 % of the upward flux. During boreal summer, the Asian monsoon region is the largest contributor with similar contributions from the maritime and continental parts of the region; however, the vertical distributions and transit times associated with these two subregions are very different. Convective sources are generally higher over the continental part of the Asian monsoon region, with shorter transit times. We estimate the monthly averaged upward mass flux on the 380 K surface and show that the contribution from convective outflow accounts for 80 % on average and explains most of its seasonal variations. The largest contributor to the convective flux is the South Asian Pacific region (warm pool) at 39 % throughout the year followed by oceanic regions surrounding continental Asia at 18 % and Africa at 10.8 %. Continental Asian lowlands account for 8 %. The Tibetan Plateau is a minor overall contributor (0.8 %), but transport from convective sources in this region is very efficient due to its central location beneath the Asian upper level anticyclone. The core results are robust to uncertainties in data and methods, but the vertical source distributions and transit times exhibit some sensitivity to the representations of cloud tops and heating rates. The main sensitivity is to the radiative heating rates which vary among reanalyses.

Is the Brewer‐Dobson circulation increasing or moving upward?

AbstractThe meridional circulation of the stratosphere, or Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC), is projected to accelerate with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The acceleration is typically quantified by changes in the tropical upward mass flux (Ftrop) across a given pressure surface. Simultaneously, models project a lifting of the entire atmospheric circulation in response to GHGs; notably, the tropopause rises about a kilometer over this century. In this study, it is shown that most of the BDC trend is associated with the rise in the circulation. Using a chemistry‐climate model (CCM), Ftrop trends across 100 hPa are contrasted with those across the tropopause: while Ftrop at 100 hPa increases 1–2 %/decade, the mass flux entering the atmosphere above the tropopause actually decreases. Similar results are found for other CCMs, suggesting that changes in the BDC may better be described as an upward shift of the circulation, as opposed to an increase, with implications for the mechanism and stratosphere‐troposphere exchange.

Multiscale Interactions in an Idealized Walker Cell: Analysis with Isentropic Streamfunctions

Abstract A new approach for analyzing multiscale properties of the atmospheric flow is proposed in this study. For that, the recently introduced isentropic streamfunctions are employed here for scale decomposition with Haar wavelets. This method is applied subsequently to a cloud-resolving simulation of a planetary Walker cell characterized by pronounced multiscale flow. The resulting set of isentropic streamfunctions—obtained at the convective, meso-, synoptic, and planetary scales—capture many important features of the across-scale interactions within an idealized Walker circulation. The convective scale is associated with the shallow, congestus, and deep clouds, which jointly dominate the upward mass flux in the lower troposphere. The synoptic and planetary scales play important roles in extending mass transport to the upper troposphere, where the corresponding streamfunctions mainly capture the first baroclinic mode associated with large-scale overturning circulation. The intermediate-scale features of the flow, such as anvil clouds associated with organized convective systems, are extracted with the mesoscale and synoptic-scale isentropic streamfunctions. Multiscale isentropic streamfunctions are also used to extract salient mechanisms that underlie the low-frequency variability of the Walker cell. In particular, the lag of a few days of the planetary scale behind the convective scale indicates the importance of the convective scale in moistening the atmosphere and strengthening the planetary-scale overturning circulation. Furthermore, the mesoscale and synoptic scale lags behind the planetary scale reflect the strong dependence of convective organization on the background shear.

Regime Transitions of Cross-Equatorial Hadley Circulations with Zonally Asymmetric Thermal Forcings

Abstract Observed nonlinearities in the seasonal evolution of monsoons have been previously explained using theories for Hadley circulations driven by zonally symmetric thermal forcings, even though monsoonal forcings deviate strongly from the assumption of zonal symmetry. Here, an idealized model of a dry, three-dimensional atmosphere is used to compare the response to zonally symmetric and asymmetric off-equatorial thermal forcings. For symmetric forcings, the zonal-mean, cross-equatorial mass flux increases more rapidly with the amplitude of the forcing once the forcing becomes strong enough to reduce the upper-tropospheric absolute vorticity to near zero, consistent with previous studies of the transition to angular momentum–conserving flow. For zonally asymmetric forcings, the zonal-mean cross-equatorial flow exhibits a similar dependence on forcing strength and a similar reduction of the zonal-mean upper-level vorticity, but asymmetric forcings also produce strong zonal overturnings with subsidence west of the heating, as in the well-known linear response to off-equatorial heatings. The mass flux in these zonal overturnings increases linearly with forcing strength until its rate of increase tapers off for the strongest forcings; the total upward mass flux (i.e., the zonal-mean plus zonally asymmetric components) increases linearly with the strength of zonally asymmetric forcings and exhibits no abrupt or nonlinear dependence on forcing amplitude. These results indicate the importance of considering the zonally asymmetric part of the divergent response to off-equatorial forcings and suggest that theories based on zonally symmetric forcings need further examination before they can be assumed to describe observed monsoons.

More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?

AbstractRecent review papers reported that many high‐resolution global climate models consistently projected a reduction of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in a future warmer climate, although the mechanism of the reduction is not yet fully understood. Here we present a result of 4K‐cooler climate experiment. The global TC frequency significantly increases in the 4K‐cooler climate compared to the present climate. This is consistent with a significant decrease in TC frequency in the 4K‐warmer climate. For the mechanism of TC frequency reduction in a warmer climate, upward mass flux hypothesis and saturation deficit hypothesis have been proposed. The result of the 4K‐cooler climate experiment is consistent with these two hypotheses. One very interesting point is that the experiment has clearly shown that TC genesis is possible at sea surface temperature (SST) well below 26°C which has been considered as the lowest SST limit for TC genesis.