Upstream Countries Research Articles

China and the Nile River Basin: The Changing Hydropolitical Status Quo

The Nile River Basin (NRB), the world’s longest river, faces a considerable challenge of population growth, degradation and depletion, and equitable water utilisation, which have become a threat to peace and environmental security in the region. Moreover, the hydropolitical landscape of the Nile has been dominated by Egypt. However, the NRB is experiencing a change in its hydropolitical status quo. China has emerged as a financier to upstream countries’ hydropower projects, thus changing the upstream–downstream hydropolitical status quo. Although the existing governing regimes were not beneficial to upstream countries, China’s role in the Nile hydropolitics is not providing an alternative and beneficial and/or win–win cooperative framework. As a result, the environmental and political landscape of the already fragile Nile region has become threatened, thus increasing the potential for conflict. The purpose of this article is to determine, through Homer-Dixon’s environmental scarcity theory, the impact and effects of environmental scarcity in contributing to a nascent conflict. This study conceptualised Homer-Dixon’s environmental scarcity theory as a theory that argues for the potential of conflict in transboundary river basins as a result of environmental scarcity. Environmental scarcity is triggered by a combination of population growth and excessive strain on dwindling renewable resources, exacerbated by unequal access to that resource.

STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS AND AGRICULTURAL COSTS AND MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY EFFICIENCY OF WATER USERS' ASSOCIATIONS OF DIFFERENT IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN AL-BEHEIRA GOVERNORATE

STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS AND AGRICULTURAL COSTS AND MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY EFFICIENCY OF WATER USERS' ASSOCIATIONS OF DIFFERENT IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN AL-BEHEIRA GOVERNORATE

Trade, Transboundary Pollution, and Foreign Lobbying

In this paper, we explore the use of trade policy in addressing transboundary stock pollution problems such as acid rain and water pollution. We show that a tariff determined by the current level of accumulated pollution can induce the time path of emissions optimal for the downstream (polluted) country. But if the upstream (polluting) country can lobby the downstream government to impose lower tariffs, distortions brought by corruption and foreign lobbying lead to a rise in the upstream country’s social welfare, and to a decrease in social welfare in the downstream country. Thus, the usefulness of trade policy as a tool for encouraging cooperation and internalizing transboundary externalities depends critically on the degree of governments’ susceptibility to foreign political influence.

Could Changing Power Relationships Lead to Better Water Sharing in Central Asia?

Even though Central Asia is water rich, water disputes have characterized the region after crumbling of the Soviet Union in 1991. The uneven spatial distribution and complex pattern of transboundary water sources with contrasting national water needs have created an intricate water dilemma. Increasing national water needs, water claims by surrounding countries, uncertainties in renewable water volumes, and effects of climate change will put further strain on the future water use in Central Asia. We argue that the present power distribution with three downstream hegemons (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and two upstream much poorer countries with less political influence (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) is not likely to lead forward to a greater willingness to share water. We discuss this situation with the analogue Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia in the Nile Basin. Thus, as in the case of Ethiopia in the Nile Basin, gradually economically stronger upstream countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to hydropower development are likely to eventually re-define the hydropolitical map of Central Asia. As in the case of the Nile Basin, a more even power balance between upstream and downstream countries may lead to an improved political structure for a much-needed better collaboration on water issues.

THE ECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE NILE BASIN: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

A multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to evaluate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under the IPCC’s A2 and B1 scenarios and existing irrigation development plans in the Nile basin. The study reveals that climate change adversely affects mainly downstream Egypt and to a lesser extent Sudan, while it results in a limited impact in the upstream countries Ethiopia and the Equatorial Lakes region, where irrigated agriculture is still limited. The economic consequences for Egypt are especially substantial if the river basin countries pursue a unilateral irrigation development strategy. In order to prevent water use conflicts and ease water scarcity conditions, a cooperative water development strategy is needed as well as economic diversification in favor of less water-intensive sectors, combined with investments in water-saving infrastructure and improved irrigation efficiency.

Framing the Brahmaputra River hydropower development: different concerns in riparian and international media reporting

Development of the Brahmaputra River, which links China, India and Bangladesh, has been hindered by significant challenges, particularly political challenges. News reports can mirror the perceptions of political actors, but are, owing to the complexity of the issue, complicated and unstructured. We present a comparative content analysis of the overall framing in news reports of the Brahmaputra River development from major English news media. A structural topic model is established to discover latent topics in the corpus of 1,569 news articles published in 34 countries or regions. We find that politics, including domestic and international politics, dominates the news narratives. Environmental issues, such as glacier status and climate change impacts, are secondarily discussed. Technology and economy issues are less frequently presented in the media coverage. Advantages of upstream countries and dependences of downstream countries are reflected in news reporting and explicitly emerge in the structural topic model. These findings and implications are important for promoting mutual understanding and cooperation among riparian countries in developing the Brahmaputra River. The proposed approach is expected to be widely used as a methodological strategy in future water policy studies.

The Role of Trust-building in Fostering Cooperation in the Eastern Nile Basin: A Case of Experimental Game Application

Escalating tension and a sense of mistrust currently prevail between downstream and upstream countries in the Nile Basin over Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Striving for self-sufficiency in hydropower generation, Ethiopia has initiated a new series of upstream reservoir construction projects, with the GERD being the largest, and this may affect the water availability in downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan. This paper examines a set of compensation options to induce cooperation through trust-building, possibly minimizing uncertainties in water allocation decision-making and simplifying complex inter-relationships in the basin using laboratory game experiments. The game was developed and conducted using hydro-economic modeling of the basin with GAMS software, an expert survey with the SPSS program and Z-tree software to design and analyze the laboratory experiment. This paper presents the results of the laboratory game experiment where the Eastern Nile Basin scenario was modeled as a multi-round, adjusted trust game with non-binding deals among players. The results suggest that the win for all situation may be reached through a stable integrative, cooperative framework. Building the enabling environment, in particular, transparency, knowledge, trust, and confidence among riparian states is the first step in developing transboundary cooperation. Basin-wide cooperation requires a transparent environment including a variety of compensation options, institutional changes, and incentive-compatible considerations.Research article

A Decade of Regional Confrontation over the Nile Waters

This article examines how unilateral actions hindered the imperative for cooperation between Ethiopia, Egypt and the Sudan over the use of the waters of the Nile River. It focuses on the remarkable strategic shift away from the idea of comprehensive Basinwide hydraulic projects – that would have benefited all the states and hence would have brought about cooperation in the Nile Valley – to Egypt’s unilateral decision to erect the High Dam at Aswan in the early 1950s. It examines in detail Ethiopia’s counter response to the Aswan High Dam Project and the subsequent Egypt-Sudanese bilateral negotiations on the division of Nile Waters through the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, and how the discrimination inherent in the Agreement vis-à-vis the upstream countries, particularly Ethiopia, triggered long years of legal wrangling and stalemate among the Nile Basin states. It also argues that the involvement of Cold War crusaders and the Basin states’ alignment to opposing ideological camps further complicated the hydropolitics of the Nile and deepened the differences between the Basin states. Finally, the article suggests what a lasting solution to the hydropolitics of the Nile should consist of.

Rebirth of Tension between Ethiopia and Egypt: A Case of Water Projects on Nile River in Ethiopia

Egypt has depended upon the waters of the Nile from times of antiquity. However, in spite of Egypt's hegemony over the Nile waters, upstream states are increasingly challenging Egypt's monopoly. Beginning near the end of colonialism in Africa, Nile basin states have been slowly but surely mounting a challenge to Egyptian domination over the Nile. Accordingly, in recent time the in general upstream countries specially Ethiopia has not only been claiming the right to use of Nile River but also have already been launching huge projects like Grand Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. However, Egypt has been discomforted with the projects that have been started in Ethiopia on the ground that it totally prejudices the interest of Egypt. On the other hand, Ethiopians have been claiming that we have the right to use Nile waters as long as it not affects the interest of downstream countries. Indeed there is cold war between two countries today. The aim of this article is to digs out different problems and the historical events that show tension between Ethiopia and Egypt on the Nile River. The paper will discuss institutional and legal frameworks in the management of Nile basin watercourse. More importantly the article explores recent phenomenon attracting the attention of downstream countries as well as World Bank towards projects on Nile River in Ethiopia. In addition, the article deals with issue of how to use and share waters among countries without prejudicing the interest of other countries as well as to what extent they can use in relation with the interest of the other countries. The article also examines, and evaluates recent increased tension between both countries. At last, the article forwards direction of consensus in the Nile basin.

COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING IN AN INTERNATIONAL RIVER POLLUTION MODEL

AbstractIn this paper, we study international river pollution problems. We introduce a model in which countries located along a river from upstream to downstream derive benefits from causing pollution, but also incur environmental costs from experiencing its own pollution and the pollution of all its upstream countries. The total welfare, being the sum of all benefits minus the sum of all costs, is maximized when all countries cooperate. Several principles from international water law are applied to find reasonable and fair distributions of the total welfare that can be obtained under full cooperation. Such a distribution of the welfare at efficient pollution levels can be implemented by monetary compensations.

Data sharing in international transboundary contexts: The Vietnamese perspective on data sharing in the Lower Mekong Basin

Summary Transboundary data sharing is widely recognised as a necessary element in the successful handling of water-related climate change issues, as it is a means towards integrated water resources management (IWRM). However, in practice it is often a challenge to achieve it. The Mekong River Commission (MRC), an inter-governmental agency established by Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam, has adopted IWRM in its water strategy plan in order to properly manage the transboundary waters of the Mekong River. In this context, data sharing procedures were institutionalised and have been officially implemented by the four member countries since 2001. This paper uses a systematic approach to identify the extent of data sharing and the factors influencing the willingness of key individuals in the Vietnam National Mekong Committee and its Primary Custodians to share data. We find that the initial objectives of the Procedures for Data and Information Exchange and Sharing (PDIES) have not been fully achieved and, further, that Vietnam has much to gain and little to lose by engaging in data sharing in the MRC context. The primary motivation for data sharing stems from the desire to protect national benefits and to prevent upstream countries from overexploiting the shared water resources. However, data sharing is hindered by a lack of national regulations in the Vietnam context concerning data sharing between state agencies and outdated information management systems.

Sustainability assessment in transboundary context: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Sustainability assessment of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is assessed in transboundary context, using Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) technique. RIAM indicates that in both Physical and Chemical category and Biological and Ecological category, there are major negative impacts for both upstream and downstream countries. On the other hand, the RIAM indicates that in Sociological and Cultural category and Economic and Operational category will have a positive impact in upstream countries and negative impacts in downstream countries. The result is not intended to substitute for a full assessment of impacts, only to help shed light on some of the issues that deserve greater attention. The study concludes RIAM is a useful tool for decision makers as it is able to display the results of different development scenarios and produce transparent environmental solutions, even with very complex options. RIAM is an effective technique in environmental impact assessment, in particular with very complicated transboundary context as verified in this study. It is hoped that the realistic ability of RIAM in dealing with transboundary context is paved the way to full approval of both upstream and downstream countries in achieving sustainable development for shared water resources.

Assessing the regional food insecurity in Bangladesh due to irrigation water shortage in the Teesta catchment area

Bangladesh is losing huge food production from the Teesta catchment area due to a lack of availability of irrigation water in the dry and lean period because of unilateral water withdrawal in the upstream country, India. The area, which is directly dependent on the irrigation water of the Teesta river, is the study area for this paper. The study reveals that rice production in Dalia, Nilphamari, Sayedpur and Rangpur regions is badly affected by the irrigation water scarcity. It appears that production is particularly severely affected in Rangpur, making it a relatively more food insecure area in the Teesta basin. The major finding of this study is that more than 4.45 million metric tons of rice production have been missed from the Teesta catchment area since 2006–07, triggered by the massive irrigation failure of the Teesta Barrage Irrigation Project (TBIP) due to reduced water flow in the Teesta river. The total rice production missed in the north-western region since 2006–07 is more than the country's total rice import during 2008/09–2013/14 fiscal years and nearly one quarter of the total boro production in the 2012/13 fiscal year. This reduced food production renders the north-western part of the country a food insecure region from its own production.

A critical review of integrated river basin management in the upper Blue Nile river basin: the case of Ethiopia

ABSTRACTIt is known that river basin is the most appropriate unit for planning, developing and managing water resources and for analysing water availability and water use. However, conflicting views of water resource utilization and ownership as well as sedimentation and flooding have challenged the development of appropriate management of the Nile River basin. The riparian states’, especially Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia's, livelihood and energy source are solely dependent on the Nile River. Thus, effective and cooperative management of soil erosion/sedimentation in the upper Nile basin is increasingly important from an economic, social and environmental perspective. The Ethiopian government alone has implemented watershed management practices since 1980s which have not proved to be satisfactory. However, there is a lack of updated information concerning the Upper Nile River basin where many questions are raised from downstream and upstream states, communities and scholars. To fill this gap, the study included the following research questions: Is there updated published information about integrated river basin management (IRBM) concerning the Upper Blue Nile basin (BNB)? What effects brought the implementation of IRBM practices in the Upper BNB? What is the role of stakeholder's participation in the river basin management at various levels? How are institutions contributing for successful river basin management? Is there strong linkage between upstream and downstream countries so far? Thus to answer these questions, this review paper intends to provide comprehensive information about the IRBM impact in the upper BNB in Ethiopia. According to the study, the implemented in situ watershed management practices in the upper Blue Nile River had brought positive effects on sediment and flooding reduction as well as on improving water flow. Moreover, the upstream–downstream linkages and cooperation are essential for sustainable water resources management and equitable water share among the Nile riparian states. It was founded that strong institutions and stakeholder participation at all levels as well as appropriate policy could facilitate the river basin management implementation. It is concluded that a better understanding of the sustainable impact of river basin management in the headwaters of the BNB is of paramount importance because of the divergent interest in water resources access, and the ever-growing demand for energy and food in upstream and downstream countries. Thus, it is suggests that the negotiations of riparian states in the Nile basin should continue focusing on ‘benefit sharing’ and the win–win option.

Central Asian Republic’s Approaches to the Development of the Regional Hydroeconomic Sector

Mechanisms of centralized planning during the soviet period enabled to maintain balance of interests among hydrocarbon-rich Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan on one hand and having enormous reserves of water Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan on the other. After the collapse of the united state the latter group found out themselves under disadvantage: they have to buy oil and natural gas at world prices. At the same time downstream countries have continued to use their water resources at no cost. This standing cannot go on forever. Since the middle of the 1990s expert circles of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been urging to recognize water resources as full-fledged goods. The idea is also met support in governmental circles. At the turn of the century Kyrgyz authorities even adopted notorious laws to regulate the introduction of paid water consumption at interstate level. Today expert circles of various Central Asian republics take polar views on the development of regional hydroeconomic sector. Midstream and downstream countries of Amu Darya and Syr Darya (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) insist on retaining of the status quo in regional water distribution. At the same time the upstream countries persist in revision of old soviet system of water distribution. In addition, in spite of categorical protest of Uzbekistan, they are going to construct a number of large hydrotechnic buildings in the rivers. Among this antagonisms they often forget or just disregard the fact that the hydroeconomic sector is a comprehensive whole and therefore should develop within one integrated process on the basis of interstate cooperation of the regional republics.

China’s southbound transboundary river basins: a case of asymmetry

An overview is presented of the contemporary societal and environmental development situation in the six major transboundary river basins that drain south from China: the Red River, Mekong, Salween, Irrawaddy, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Indus. The overall societal and environmental vulnerability of the basins is assessed using multidimensional river basin vulnerability analysis. The analysis shows that while China has a fairly low level of vulnerability in these basins, its downstream influence is substantial. This setting offers a plethora of opportunities for transboundary cooperation and calls for a high level of responsibility from the upstream riparian countries.

Recent morphological changes in the Mekong and Bassac river channels, Mekong delta: The marked impact of river-bed mining and implications for delta destabilisation

The Mekong delta, in Vietnam, is the world's third largest delta. Densely populated, the delta has been significantly armoured with engineering works and dykes to protect populations and infrastructure from storms, and shrimp farms from saltwater intrusion. Considerable development pressures in Vietnam and in the upstream countries have resulted in the construction of several dams in China and in important channel-bed aggregate extractions especially in Cambodia. The effects of these developments impact the delta dynamics in various ways. In this study, changes in the channel morphology of the Mekong proper and the Bassac, the two main distributaries in the 250km-long deltaic reach from the Cambodian border to the coast, were analysed using channel depth data for 1998 and 2008. The channels display important and irregular bed changes over the 10-year comparison period, including significant incision and expansion and deepening of numerous pools. The mean depth of both channels increased by more than 1.3m. Both channels also showed correlative significant bed material losses: respectively 90millionm3 in the Mekong and 110millionm3 in the Bassac over the 10-year period. These important losses over a relatively short period, and weak correlations between bed incision and hydraulic parameters suggest that the marked morphological changes are not in equilibrium with flow and sediment entrainment conditions, and are therefore not related to changes in river hydrology. We claim that aggregate extraction, currently practised on a very large scale in the Mekong delta channels and upstream of the delta, is the main cause of these recent morphological changes. These changes are deemed to contribute actively to rampant bank erosion in the delta as well as to erosion of the Mekong delta shoreline. Other contributory activities include the numerous dykes and embankments. The role of existing dams in bed losses remains unclear in the absence of reliable data on the Mekong sediment load. Future large-scale hydropower dam development on the Lower Mekong main stem will have cumulative effects with aggregate extraction, leading to increased morphological changes that will further impact the delta, especially in terms of sediment supply and coastal erosion.

GROUNDWATER AS A VIABLE RESOURCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NILE BASIN: A RAPID HYDROGEOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT

The storage of groundwater in the Nile Basin has been assessed in order to inform its potential role in community development and sustainable growth in the basin, where hydropolitics is critical among upstream and downstream countries. It is a well-known fact that water management activities in the basin focus on the surface water resources, with less or no attention to the groundwater, while the majority of urban and rural communities rely on groundwater for day-to-day activities. The results show that downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) have considerable groundwater storage as a result of favourable geological formations (sedimentary rocks), while upstream countries (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Burundi and Rwanda) are underlain by crystalline basement and volcanic rocks with low groundwater productivity. The available groundwater in the shallow and deep (transboundary) aquifers requires holistic development and management by stakeholders across the borders in order to sustainably adapt to changing climate in the basin and shift the dependence pattern on the Nile River for water supply.

Behavior of selected hydrochemical indicators of the Euphrates River, Iraq

Seven stations along the Euphrates River were selected for studying the behavior of some hydrochemical indicators including pH, TDS, total alkalinity, nutrients (PO4 and NO3), and dissolved oxygen (DO) for the period 2004–2010. Most of these indicators show significant increasing trends. It was also observed that increasing the values of these indicators showed downstream directions. This is due to the increase of the uses of the river water as well as the decrease of the overall incoming water quantities due to the establishment of various new hydraulic projects in the upstream countries especially in the last years. Grouping results show that Qaim, Hit, and Hindiya stations were grouped together. The remaining stations were assembled in another group. Hydrological and geological conditions and anthropogenic effects are the main controlling factors on the behaviour of the selected indicators.

Coping with changing water resources: The case of the Syr Darya river basin in Central Asia

a b s t r a c t This paper discusses how climatic-hydrological and socio-political developments will affect water allocation in the Syr Darya river basin and which adaptation measures will be needed to cope with changing water resources. In view of the geo-political complexity, climate-driven changes in water availability are of particular importance in this region. Water shortages during summer will become more frequent as precipitation is expected to further decrease and glacial meltwater releases will decrease in the long-term due to reduced glacier volume. Being the main valve to the entire Syr Darya river system, the Toktogul reservoir in Kyrgyzstan could take over, at least partly, the role of glaciers as seasonal water redistributors, thus allowing the generation of energy in winter – benefiting upstream countries – and irrigation for large-scale agriculture in summer – benefiting downstream countries. To date, however, there is no regional consensus on a balanced reservoir management, which currently favours irrigation according to past Soviet priorities. Moreover, the perception of water as a ‘national concern’ in Central Asia discourages efforts towards cooperation between states at the regional level. So far, climate change adaptation has focused on technical rather than institutional solutions. We suggest that policy-relevant adaptation measures should include consistent data collection and dissemination, cross-sectoral collaboration, promotion of national responsibility and initiative, and agreeing on a regional strategy.