Abstract
The aim of this article is to determine how human interventions in upstream countries coupled with drought events are affecting the flow regime of downstream countries using the Nile River basin for illustrative purposes. This has been addressed by assessing climate change in the study area through analyses of precipitation data obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and detecting if there is a trend, and subsequently calculating drought events in the main basins impacting on the downstream flow. Then river discharge data were analysed using different hydraulic indices at key stations in the downstream country and measuring the alterations occurring in the flow. The degree of alteration is a function of the number of civil engineering projects being in operation and classified by time windows; pre-alteration is between 1900 and 1925, while the alteration period is between 1933 and 2012. The alteration period was classified into three periods based on the degree of alteration. The findings revealed that there are changes in the river flow regime caused by both changes in the rainfall pattern in addition to the regulation in the upstream countries. There is a direct relationship between the interventions in the upstream countries and changes in the flow regime especially when coupled with drought events. By increasing the water usage upstream, there is an increase in the alteration of the flow downstream. The years between 2000 and 2012 were linked to the highest alterations between the modified years.
Highlights
1.1 BackgroundThere is an increasing demand for freshwater to satisfy needs for irrigation, potable water, and industry and hydropower production
Trend analysis was applied for precipitation data at the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) stations distributed over the entire basin and for the river discharge at two key locations (Dongola and Tamaniat stations)
The study area suffered both from climate change and human construction activities impacting on the flow
Summary
There is an increasing demand for freshwater to satisfy needs for irrigation, potable water, and industry and hydropower production. Due to upstream countries’ interests in abstracting freshwater, there is a need to understand the possible impacts that might affect the flow regime observed in downstream countries (Al-Faraj and Scholz 2014a,b; Rivaes et al 2015). River discharge is considered as the main parameter of importance for sustainable water resources management. To achieve an optimum in terms of sustainable water resources management within a transboundary river basin system, alterations in the flow regime should be determined (Al-Faraj and Scholz 2014a,b). The conflict between upstream and downstream areas is exacerbated in transboundary river basins where each country prioritises achieving its own benefits (UNEP 2012)
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