Abstract
The Eastern Nile Basin is facing a number of transboundary issues, including water resources development, and the associated impacts. The Nile Basin, particularly the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered as one of a few international river systems of potential conflicts between riparian countries. The Eastern Nile is characterized by the high dependency of downstream countries on river water generated in upstream countries, with limited or no contribution to the runoff itself. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal scenarios for water resources management in the Eastern Nile with regard to hydropower generation and irrigation development. A hydro-economic optimization model based on Genetic Algorithm has been used to determine the maximum benefits for two scenarios: (i) non-cooperative management of hydraulic infrastructure by the riparian countries (status quo), and (ii) cooperative water resources management among the riparian countries. The hydro-economic model is developed using a Genetic Algorithm and deterministic optimization approach covering all hydraulic infrastructures in the Eastern Nile, existing and planned, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The results show that cooperative management yields an increase in hydro-energy returns for all countries compared to the status quo, with a very high increase in Ethiopian’s returns, as expected. Non-cooperative system management would negatively impact the hydro-energy of Egypt compared to the cooperative management (reduced by 11%), without a significant increase of hydro-energy for Ethiopia. For Sudan, the results show that hydropower generation benefits from the presence of GERD, in both management scenarios. Non-cooperative management of the system, along with the internal trade-off between irrigation and hydropower facilities, would negatively impact irrigation supply in Sudan. The findings support the argument of positive impact of GERD development on the three Eastern Nile riparian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, provided that the three countries agree to manage the system cooperatively.
Highlights
Optimal operation of multiple reservoir systems has been a subject of research by many authors, for different water issues in different locations [1,2,3,4,5]
The annual average monthly flows to identify the periods of dry, system arewet controlled by because the twomost largesmall over-year storages they are positioned by between normal and conditions, reservoirs in theassystem are controlled the twothe large upstream and the downstream over-year storages as they are positioned between the upstream Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the downstream Aswan High Dam (AHD)
The section starts with the results of the economic return from hydro-energy and irrigation of the Eastern Nile system, at the basin level, considering average hydrologic conditions, i.e., from 1917 to 1923 and cooperation and non-cooperation between countries in managing the system
Summary
Optimal operation of multiple reservoir systems has been a subject of research by many authors, for different water issues in different locations [1,2,3,4,5]. The case of the Eastern Nile Basin is politically significant, being a transboundary basin shared by four countries: Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan and. Covers more than one half of the Nile Basin [6]. The basin is endowed with a large potential of hydropower and food production that can be generated from cooperative water resources development and management. The Nile Basin, and in particular the Eastern Nile Sub-basin, is considered as one of a few international river systems with potential water conflicts between riparian countries [8,9]. In common with other international rivers, current tensions in the Eastern Nile Sub-basin and the whole Nile
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