Typical Season Research Articles

Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic on RSV Seasonality in Europe.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, atypical respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation patterns emerged, with the occurrence of RSV activity outside the typical winter season. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on RSV seasonality. The onset, offset and peak of RSV epidemics from 2018 to 2022 across 12 European countries were determined using the 3% positivity threshold method. A multilevel longitudinal logit regression model for proportions assessed the associations between five NPIs (school closures, mask use, workplace measures, public gathering restrictions and closure of public spaces) and RSV, utilising RSV surveillance data, two NPI databases (ECDC-JRC and Oxford) and COVID-19 surveillance data. Before 2020, consistent RSV seasonality patterns were observed, but the seasonal increase of RSV-positive cases in winter remained absent during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022). Analysis revealed inconsistent associations between individual NPIs and RSV. The associations differed depending on the data source used (ECDC-JRC or Oxford), not only in magnitude but also in the direction of the coefficients. Public gathering restrictions and closure of public spaces exhibited significant negative associations with RSV incidence. However, this was only observed when using surveillance data for the entire epidemiological year and not when only examining weeks with increased RSV activity. This study highlights the need for standardised international data collection and procedures for infectious disease modelling, as varying NPI implementations, NPI registration and RSV surveillance across countries complicate the understanding of RSV dynamics during the pandemic. Caution is recommended when interpreting the effects of NPIs on RSV circulation.

United States pasture and rangeland conditions: 1995–2022

AbstractUSDA National Agricultural Statistics Service pasture and rangeland condition data were used to establish a novel spatiotemporal climatology of condition ratings across the conterminous United States for the May–October grazing season over the 1995–2022 study period. On average, the coverage of grazing land that provides adequate or excess feed underwent a significant reduction during a typical season. Spatially, the southwestern United States exhibited the poorest grazing land conditions on average, with over 20 years below the national mean condition rating. At the national aggregated level, conditions degraded during the 28‐year study period, and the most significant trends were observed for grazing lands considered to have poor or very poor condition coverage, which increased. Robustly increasing trends in poor and very poor condition coverage were most apparent across the western half of the United States, which is predominantly rangeland. Meanwhile, the eastern half of the United States, which is mostly pastureland, generally experienced condition improvements. Overall, continued regional climatic changes that may result in increasing temperatures, variable precipitation totals, and subsequent soil moisture declines leading to increased drought instances will continue to impose challenges for grazing land managers. Grazing land condition declines can result in increased feed supply demand and reduced grazing capacity. Should these trends continue, there will be a growing need for flexible livestock, forage, and grazing management strategies in the coming decades to adapt to climate change‐induced impacts on water‐sensitive ecosystems.

GIS-Enhanced Survey of Potential Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Artificial Oviposition Containers Distributed across Communities in Trinidad, West Indies.

Dengue and other arboviruses remain a global threat, and enhanced efforts to control the mosquitoes that transmit them are urgently needed. A survey of potential manmade Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) oviposition containers was performed in four communities near the end of the typical dry season in 2018 in Trinidad, West Indies. The purpose was to conduct individual premise surveys and use GIS mapping to visualize premises within communities that had Aedes-positive containers, as this information could be used for the prioritization of mosquito control efforts in potential high risk areas as the wet season progressed. Accessible premises were surveyed following standard inspection protocols used by the Insect Vector Control Division (IVCD), Ministry of Health (MOH). The results indicated that two of the four locations would be at high risk for arbovirus transmission going into the wet season. The GIS mapping of premises with Aedes-positive containers facilitated the identification of potential hot spots for arbovirus transmission risk within communities that should be prioritized for enhanced monitoring and vector control efforts, emphasizing the need to increase community participation in standard surveys by IVCD.

Inclusion of cool‐ and warm‐season species in tall fescue swards for increased productivity

AbstractPasture systems that include cool‐ and warm‐season species have the potential to enhance tall fescue (TF) [Schedonorus arundinaceus (Schreb.) Dumort.] forage systems beyond their typical season. The objectives of this study were to incorporate crabgrass (Digitaria ciliaris Retz.) into TF swards and compare the production of monoculture TF to a binary mixture of crabgrass and TF as well as its effect with different sources of nitrogen (such as red clover [Trifolium pratense L.] or sunn hemp [Crotalaria juncea L.]). The experiment was conducted in Crossville, TN, in 2020 and 2021. The treatments were as follows: (1) TF + 0 N (T), (2) TF + ammonium nitrate (TA), (3) TF + red clover (TR), (4) TF + sunn hemp (TS), (5) TF + crabgrass + 0 N (TFC), (6) TF + crabgrass + ammonium nitrate (TCA), (7) TF + crabgrass + red clover (TCR), and (8) TF + crabgrass + sunn hemp (TCS). The plots containing red clover indicated a greater herbage mass (HM) and crude protein (CP) along with lesser neutral detergent fiber compared to the other treatments. Sunn hemp performed best during the mid‐summer, contributing to the increase of HM. Tall fescue swards that were mixed with crabgrass and a source of N (legumes or N fertilizer) had greater HM during the warm season, having the potential to decrease the stationarity of production. Thus, including crabgrass, red clover, and sunn hemp (grass and legumes, respectively) in TF pasture can be a great strategy to increase HM and improve nutritive value.

The diurnal variation of dust and water ice aerosol optical depth at Jezero crater observed by MEDA/TIRS over a full Martian year

The Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) on the Perseverance rover has provided nearly two full Mars years of systematic monitoring of the total aerosol optical depth above Jezero Crater. These observations span a wide range of timescales, capturing seasonal patterns, diurnal variations, and minute-to-minute fluctuations in aerosol loading. By combining TIRS retrievals with orbital observations, the relative contributions of dust and water ice aerosols can be estimated, revealing their different seasonal and diurnal behaviors. The TIRS record shows distinct periods of dust storm activity, including strong regional storms during the perihelion season as well as short-lived but intense dust events outside the typical dust storm season. Water ice clouds exhibit pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability, with peak activity occurring during the aphelion season but with a presence throughout the year. The diurnal variation of clouds differs significantly between the aphelion and perihelion seasons, with clouds persisting throughout the night during the aphelion season, while largely absent outside of specific periods after sunrise and sunset during the perihelion season. These results provide new insights into the complex behavior of aerosols at Jezero Crater and their connections to atmospheric dynamics and the Martian dust and water cycles.

Field Study and Analysis of Passenger Density in the Beijing Subway Transfer Hall

Passenger density is a major factor influencing indoor climate conditions and the corresponding energy consumption in the transfer halls of metro transportation hubs. In this study, passenger flow in a subway transfer hall in Beijing was measured across three typical seasons. A differential equation model was established to account for the characteristics of passenger density. Based on this, a passenger density prediction model was developed and utilized for analysis. The results show that passenger density is primarily affected by operation time and the surrounding population composition, with a relatively weak correlation to outdoor weather conditions. Additionally, passenger density differs significantly between weekdays and weekends, with the weekday peak being 2.5 times higher than that on weekends. During the four peak hours on weekdays, both in the morning and evening, passenger density exceeds the design capacity, resulting in insufficient fresh air supply. However, for most of the weekday hours and for all hours on weekends, passenger density remains below the design capacity. This indicates a substantial potential for energy savings by adjusting the fresh air supply according to actual passenger density.

Quantifying growth, erosion and dislodgement rates of farmed kelp (Saccharina latissima) to examine the carbon sequestration potential of temperate seaweed farming

Seaweed cultivation, including kelp species, is rapidly expanding in many regions. A widely assumed co-benefit of seaweed farming is increased local carbon sequestration rates (thereby contributing to climate change mitigation), although direct field-based measurements of carbon assimilation and release are largely lacking. We quantified growth, erosion and dislodgement rates of farmed Saccharina latissima in Porthallow Bay (Cornwall, UK) throughout a typical cultivation season to provide insights into the carbon sequestration potential of small-scale kelp farms. Blade elongation rates increased from ~ 1.3 cm day−1 to ~ 2.3 cm day−1 in March–April, before declining to 1.4 cm day−1 by May. Meanwhile, erosion rates remained low, ranging from ~ 0.5 to ~ 0.8 cm day−1. Dislodgement rates decreased from 20% of plants in January–February to 5% in April–May. Rates of carbon accumulation and loss increased from January to May, related to an increase in standing stock. Conservative first-order estimates suggest that the farm captures 0.14 t C ha−1 y−1, of which up to 70% is released into the environment as particulate organic carbon. Based on previous estimates of carbon burial and storage rates, the farm may sequester 0.05 t CO2e ha−1 y−1. These values suggest that scaling-up European kelp farming should be motivated by other co-benefits, such as low-carbon product alternatives, job creation and potential biodiversity gains, and not be solely driven by a perceived meaningful increase in carbon sequestration. Importantly, further information needs to be obtained from a variety of cultivation sites to develop a better understanding of carbon dynamics associated with kelp farms.

Retrospective Analysis of Cholera/Acute Watery Diarrhea Outbreaks in Ethiopia From 2001 To 2023: Incidence, Case Fatality Rate, and Seasonal and Multiyear Epidemic Patterns.

The Ethiopian government has developed the multisectoral cholera elimination plan (NCP) with an aim of reducing cholera incidence and case fatality rate (CFR). To better understand and monitor the progress of this plan, a comprehensive review of national cholera epidemiology is needed. Reported data on cholera/acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases in the past 20 years were extracted from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and World Health Organization databases. Descriptive statistics, Pearson χ2, and logistic regression analyses were conducted. From January 2001 to November 2023, a total of 215 205 cholera/AWD cases, 2355 deaths with a cumulative CFR of 1.10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.092-1.095), and a mean annual incidence rate of 8.9/100 000 (95% CI, 6.5-11.3) were reported. Two major upsurges of cholera epidemics were found in the last two decades with mean attack rate (AR) of 20.57/100 000 in 2006-2010 and 14.83/100 000 in 2016-2020. Another resurgence of outbreaks occured in 2021-2023 (mean AR, 8.63/100 000). In 2015-2023, 54.0% (53 990/99 945) of cases were aged 15-44 years. National cholera CFR (3.13% [95% CI: 2.1-4.5]) was the highest in 2022. The 2015-2023 cumulative cholera CFR was different across regions: Benishangul Gumuz (6.07%), Gambela (1.89%), Sidama (1.42%), Southern Nation, Nationalities, and Peoples' (1.34%), Oromia (1.10%), and Amhara (1.09%). Cholera/AWD patients in older adults (≥45 years), severe dehydration, peak rainy season (June-August), and outpatients were associated with higher risk of death. Cholera has been a public health problem in Ethiopia with case fatalities still above the global target. Case management needs to be improved particularly in outpatients and older populations. Outbreak preparedness should be rolled out well in advance of the typical rainy seasons. Significant investments are essential to advance the cholera surveillance system at healthcare setting and community level. Underlying factors of cholera deaths per areas should be further investigated to guide appropriate interventions to meet the NCP target by 2028.

A - 59 MEG Power Changes in Non-concussed High School Football Players: Implications of Cumulative Head Impact Risk

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine how cumulative repetitive head impacts (RHI) over a single season affects functional brain activity in high school football players that are clinically asymptomatic for concussion. Method Pre-season and post-season magnetoencephalography (275 channel CTF MEG) and MRI were acquired for 88 football participant seasons (mean age = 16.09 yrs, mean BMI = 26.32). Helmet-based accelerometer data was collected for each practice and game. Cumulative risk-weighted exposure from linear acceleration (RWELinear) was calculated for each subject. Standard processing and source localization of 8-minutes eyes-open-resting state MEG data was performed using Brainstorm2. Voxel-wise relative power spectral density (PSD) was calculated for the theta frequency band (5-7 Hz). After transformation to MNI space2, pre-season to post-season percent change in PSD (%theta) was calculated and spatial clusters significantly correlated with RWELinear were identified using SPM8 (a = 0.05 and false discovery correction to account for multiple corrections). Mean cluster values were extracted, and linear regression analysis performed in R 3.21 with covariates of BMI, age, and time between scans. Results After covariate adjustment, there was a significant positive correlation between RWELinear and %Δtheta PSD in the right postcentral gyrus and inferior parietal lobe (p = 9.342e-05, adj. R2 = 0.2092), with no other significant associations noted. Conclusions Changes in functional brain activity may be associated with RHI specifically in the right postcentral gyrus and inferior parietal lobe over a typical football season. Future research will include examining how these affected areas are associated with cognitive performance.

Environmental impacts of aerosol radiative effect and urbanization and their interactions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City cluster

With fast economic development, urban expansion and air pollution are two main eco-environmental challenges confronting China. Though both are associated with intensified human activities, their impacts on urban environment are investigated separately, and the synthetic effect and intricate interaction of the two have not been fully understood. Here, based on in-situ measurements and online-coupled meteorology-chemistry modelling, the impacts of anthropogenic aerosol and urbanization are investigated simultaneously at Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster during a typical pollution season. The two processes exhibit opposite influences on meteorology and air quality. Aerosol via its radiative effect tends to cause net loss of solar energy with 3 °C cooling at the ground surface and 1 °C warming in the upper boundary layer. In contrast, urbanization yields large increment of net surface solar radiation as well as sensible heat flux, leading to over 1 °C warming in the lower atmosphere. Such modifications of boundary layer structure alter the accumulation and formation of air pollution. Urbanization effect dominated in the modification of near-surface air temperature and air pollution, making the synthetic effect a linear combination of two processes. The study highlights a comprehensive understanding of air pollution and urbanization and their synergy effect on urban environment over megacities.

Effects of dietary supplementation with omega-3 fatty acid-rich linseed on the reproductive performance of ewes in subtropical climates.

The present study evaluated the effects of omega-3 (ω-3) fatty acid-rich linseed supplementation on the reproductive performance, endocrine profile, and biochemical profile of ewes reared in subtropical climates. Forty-eight acyclic and clinically healthy Marwari sheep, aged 1.5-2.5 years with no parity, were divided into four groups (n = n = 12 in each). Ewes in the control group (group I) were fed only a basal feed, whereas ewes in the treatment groups II, III, and IV were fed the basal diet along with 10%, 15%, and 20% linseed, respectively, daily on a dry matter basis. The experiment was conducted during the typical breeding season (October-November) of the sheep. The estrus induction rate was significantly higher (p < 0.05) in all treatment groups than in the control group. The estrus induction interval was significantly lower (p < 0.05) in group III. The conception rate in group I was significantly lower (p < 0.05). In addition, ewes in the control group had a significantly lower (p < 0.05) lambing rate than all treatment groups. Serum progesterone concentrations differed significantly (p < 0.05) between the control and the treatment groups on days 15, 30, 45, and 60 of supplementation. On treatment days 15 and 30, the serum estrogen concentrations were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in all treatment groups compared to that in group I. In all treatment groups, monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) decreased significantly (p < 0.05), whereas polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) increased significantly (p < 0.05) from day 15 onward. In conclusion, by providing 15% dietary linseed supplementation to ewes, their reproductive performance can be improved in subtropical climates. Future studies are recommended to further elucidate the role of linseed supplementation in sheep reproduction in subtropical climates.

California wildfire smoke contributes to a positive atmospheric temperature anomaly over the western United States

Abstract. Wildfires in the southwestern United States, particularly in northern California (nCA), have grown in size and severity in the past decade. As they have grown larger, they have been associated with large emissions of absorbing aerosols and heat into the troposphere. Utilizing satellite observations from MODIS, CERES, and AIRS as well as reanalysis from MERRA-2, the meteorology associated with fires during the wildfire season (June–October) was discerned over the nCA-NV (northern California and Nevada) region during the period 2003–2022. Wildfires in the region have a higher probability of occurring on days of positive temperature (T) anomalies and negative relative humidity (RH) anomalies, making it difficult to discern the radiative effects of aerosols that are concurrent with fires. To attempt to better isolate the effects of large fire emissions on meteorological variables, such as clouds and precipitation, variable anomalies on high fire emission days (90th percentile) were compared with low fire emission days (10th percentile) and were further stratified based on whether surface relative humidity (RHs) was anomalously high (75th percentile) or low (25th percentile) compared with typical fire season conditions. Comparing the simultaneously high fire emission and high RHs data with the simultaneously low fire emission and high RHs data, positive tropospheric T anomalies were found to be concurrent with positive AOD anomalies. Further investigation found that due to shortwave absorption, the aerosols heat the atmosphere at a rate of 0.041 ± 0.016 to 0.093 ± 0.019 K d−1, depending on whether RH conditions are anomalously positive or negative. The positive T anomalies were associated with significant negative 850–300 hPa RH anomalies during both 75th percentile RHs conditions. Furthermore, high fire emission days under high RHs conditions are associated with negative CF anomalies that are concurrent with the negative RH anomalies. This negative CF anomaly is associated with a significantly negative regional precipitation anomaly and a positive net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux anomaly (a warming effect) in certain areas. The T, RH, and CF anomalies under the simultaneously high fire emission and high RHs conditions compared with the simultaneously low fire emission and high RHs conditions have a significant spatial correlation with AOD anomalies. Additionally, the vertical profile of these variables under the same stratification is consistent with positive black carbon mass mixing ratio anomalies from MERRA-2. However, causality is difficult to discern, and further study is warranted to determine to what extent the aerosols are contributing to these anomalies.

Environmental effects of river ice, The Saint John (Wolastoq) River, New Brunswick, Canada

ABSTRACT The Saint John (Wolastoq) River (SJR) is a major international river flowing through the State of Maine, USA, and the Province of New Brunswick, Canada. In terms of river length and basin area, it is one of the largest rivers on the eastern seaboard of North America south of the St. Lawrence River system. Subject to seasonal ice cover, ice conditions vary along the SJR due to natural differences in climate and terrain, and due to anthropogenetic changes, such as the construction of dams. Ice formation, growth, and breakup along the SJR affects its hydraulic and ecological regimes and leads to the potential for ice jamming that has caused severe flooding and ice runs. Ice affects river erosion, flooding, ecology, water quality, and recreational uses of the SJR. An overview of typical winter climate and ice season characteristics along the SJR from Dickey, Maine, USA to Saint John, New Brunswick, and some of its environmental consequences are summarized in this review paper. Ice processes and phenomena that occur along the SJR occur along other northern rivers, and can cause similar environmental concerns and consequences that should not be ignored in river engineering and basin management.

Alterations of pathogen transmission patterns and attenuated immune stimulation might be the cause of increased adult respiratory infections cases in 2023, results from a multi-center study in mainland China

BackgroundSeveral respiratory infections outbreaks have been observed in mainland China after reduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Other countries have seen increases in respiratory infections outside typical seasons post-COVID-19, warranting investigation into underlying causes. MethodsWe established monitoring networks for suspected respiratory infection in 14 tertiary hospitals nationwide. PCR for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A and B were performed on 3708 respiratory specimens and deep sequencing were conducted to identify co-infections or newly emerging microbes in 2023. Viral evolutionary analysis was completed. We retrospectively detected serum antibody level for various respiratory pathogens from 4324 adults without respiratory infections over 7 years to observe its dynamic curves. FindingsSARS-CoV-2 and influenza A were the main pathogens during outbreaks in 2023, bacterial-virus and bacterial-bacterial co-infections were most detected, but community co-infections didn't significantly increase pneumonia incidence. Different SARS-CoV-2 and influenza variants were present in different outbreaks, and no novel pathogens were found. The epidemiological patterns of influenza A, COVID-19 and etc. were altered, exhibiting characteristics of being "staggered" compared to most global regions, and potentially led to "overlapping prevalence". Binding antibody testing showed regular fluctuation, without significant decrease against common respiratory pathogens in adults. Influenza A antibody stimulation was attenuated during the 2023 outbreak. Conclusions"Misaligned" alteration in seasonal respiratory disease patterns possibly caused combined epidemics, leading to cases spike in China, 2023. In adults, antibody levels didn't show significant decline, but reduced immune response to influenza during 2020–2023 emphasizes the need for consistent vaccination during pandemics.

Tracking Sweet Potato Leaf Curl Virus through Field Production: Implications for Sustainable Sweetpotato Production and Breeding Practices.

Sweet potato leaf curl virus (SPLCV) is a whitefly-transmitted begomovirus infecting sweetpotato and other morning glory (Convolvulaceae) species worldwide. The virus is widespread at the USDA, ARS, U.S. Vegetable Laboratory (USVL), and testing of germplasm maintained in the breeding program indicates nearly 100% infection in storage roots of materials propagated for at least four years. Prior to the public release of new germplasm, viruses must be eliminated via laborious and time-consuming meristem-tip culture. The identification of virus-free seedlings early in the selection process can offer an alternative to meristem-tip culture. In this study, we investigated the transmission of SPLCV over two years of consecutive field plantings (early and late) of sweetpotato. While SPLCV is endemic at the USVL, virus transmission pressure over the typical cultivation season is unknown, and avoidance of virus transmission paired with the selection and maintenance of clean material may be a viable alternative to virus elimination. In 2022, the storage roots of 39 first-year seedling (FYS) selections were tested for SPLCV after early-season cultivation, revealing a single selection (2.6%) with a positive test. Similar testing was conducted in 2023 with no SPLCV-positive FYS selections detected. To further assess SPLCV acquisition in the field, replicated late-season plantings of each selected FYS (n = 37) were monitored from planting to harvest. Testing was conducted at 60 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Approximately 35% of the bulk samples were infected at 60 DAP, and infection increased to 52.3% by 120 DAP. Testing of individuals within selected positive bulked samples did not support 100% infection at harvest. Altogether, these results demonstrate that SPLCV transmission during early planting is sufficiently low to facilitate the maintenance of virus-free selections, offering an alternative to virus cleaning and a cultivation strategy that may be leveraged for production.

ANTHROPOMETRIC AND PHYSICAL QUALITIES OF SEMI-PROFESSIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE PLAYERS

AIM The aim of the current study was to investigate the physiological and anthropometric characteristics of semi-professional rugby league players across a typical season, including pre- and post-season data. METHODS Thirty-five semi-professional rugby league players, mean age 25.38 ± 2.35 years were measured for height, body mass, sum of skinfolds, and speed (20m sprint). Global positioning system (GPS) data, sampling at 10 Hz, were collected, two pre-season and eighteen Queensland Cup rugby league matches in the 2023 season for 10 players (backs and forwards). Data was categorized into total distance (km), sprint distance (m), power plays, energy expenditure (kcal), player load, and top speed (m/s). RESULTS Compared with forwards the backs had significantly lower body mass (99.4kg vs 90.8kg), and significantly greater speed during 20m sprint (3.00 vs 3.1sec). Sum of skinfolds, no differences between backs and forwards across the three time points, 104.2 vs 106.2mm, 103.9 vs 110.9mm and 93.8 vs 108.1mm. Reviewing the GPS data across the trial and cup games revealed a number of significant differences between backs and forwards, backs greater overall distance (6.63km vs 5.26km), sprint distance (467.53 vs 264.63m), power plays (37 vs 25), energy expenditure (1002.42 vs 778.90 kcal), player load (311.50 vs 275.16), top speed (8.02 vs 7.02m/s). CONCLUSION Retrospective analysis of our data has allowed us to understand the activity demands between match types and differences in activity demands between seasonal phases of training in semi-professional male rugby league players and will permit further specificity of training and improve performance. Determining the fitness and physiological profiles and how they relate to training and match demands will allow the coaching staff to develop more targeted training strategies in order to optimally develop the fitness characteristics that predominantly underpin match demands.

Environmental Regulation and Stormwater Management Strategies for an Urban River in Northwest China: A Sustainable Approach

Low-impact developments (LIDs) have emerged as effective strategies for mitigating the adverse impacts of urbanization on river environments. This study aims to enhance river environment quality by examining the effects of LIDs and land use/cover change (LUCC) in the context of river environment and hydrological conditions. Using the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) in an urban river setting, the study investigates the impact of LIDs on urban river water volume. An analysis of river runoff quality and quantity is conducted, followed by the development of an optimal river water regulation scheme through a multi-objective ecological scheduling model. The results reveal that the incorporation of LIDs can substantially decrease river runoff yield for varying recurrence periods of design rainstorms. Consequently, the flood peak reduction rate ranged from 10% to 18%, and the flood volume experienced a reduction of 10–29% in the study area. The combination of river water regulation, LIDs and LUCC leads to a decrease in river water volume within the lower river channel by up to 47% especially in a typical dry year and dry season, accompanied by a decline in river flow velocity and water self-purification capacity. A risk-based multi-objective stochastic optimization model is employed to ensure sustainable management of urban river runoff in terms of both quantity and quality. This research contributes to the advancement of knowledge in sustainable basin management practices and offers practical insights for policymakers involved in the management of water resources and environmental conservation in semi-arid basins.

When a strike strikes twice: Massive student mobilizations and teenage pregnancy in Chile

This paper empirically studies the impact of massive and sudden school closures following the 2011 nationwide student strike in Chile on teenage pregnancy. We observe an average increase of 2.7% in teenage pregnancies in response to temporary high school shutdowns, equal to 1.9 additional pregnancies per lost school day. The effect diminishes after three quarters since the strike’s onset. The effects are predominantly driven by first-time mothers aligned with high-school absenteeism periods and are unrelated to the typical seasonality of teenage fertility or pregnancies in other age groups. Additionally, we document that the strike had a larger disruptive role by affecting students’ educational trajectories, evidenced by a persistent increase in dropout rates and a reduction in college admission test take-up for both female and male students.

Seismic response of permafrost slopes supported by the thermal anchor pipe frame: Theoretical analysis and shaking table test verification

To study the seismic response of the thermal anchor pipe frame supporting permafrost slope system, the coupled dynamic interaction model of the permafrost slope with the thermal anchor pipe frame in thawing and freezing periods was established by taking into account the stratification characteristics of the permafrost slope in different typical seasons, respectively. Based on D'Alembert's principle and Dirac's function, the coupled vibration equilibrium differential equations are given and the seismic response of the system is analyzed for different periods. The reliability of the proposed model was further verified through shaking table tests. The results show that the acceleration response at different positions during both freezing and thawing periods is similar to the initial loading seismic wave shape. The peak acceleration and velocity during the thawing period is greater than that during the freezing period. The shear force and bending moment of the frame column are distributed alternately positive and negative along its height. The incremental dynamic shear force and bending moment are greater during the thawing period. However, the peak bending moments and shear forces are greater during the freezing period when the combined effects of frost and earthquakes. The peak bending moment occurs at the position of the first layer of the thermal anchor pipe, and the shear force suddenly changes near the thermal anchor pipe. In seismic design, attention should be paid to checking the internal force of the frame column during the freezing period to prevent plastic bending failure. The results contribute to further understanding the dynamic interaction mechanism of the thermal anchor pipe frame permafrost slope system, which has important practical significance for its seismic resistance.

A Novel Photovoltaic Power Prediction Method Based on a Long Short-Term Memory Network Optimized by an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm

Photovoltaic (PV) power prediction plays a significant role in supporting the stable operation and resource scheduling of integrated energy systems. However, the randomness and volatility of photovoltaic power generation will greatly affect the prediction accuracy. Focusing on this issue, a prediction framework is proposed in this research by developing an improved sparrow search algorithm (ISSA) to optimize the hyperparameters of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The ISSA is specially designed from the following three aspects to support a powerful search performance. Firstly, the initial population variety is enriched by using an enhanced sine chaotic mapping. Secondly, the relative position of neighboring producers is introduced to improve the producer position-updating strategy to enhance the global search capabilities. Then the Cauchy–Gaussian variation is utilized to help avoid the local optimal solution. Numerical experiments on 20 test functions indicate that ISSA could identify the optimal solution with better precision compared to SSA and PSO algorithms. Furthermore, a comparative study of PV power prediction methods is provided. The ISSA-LSTM algorithm developed in this paper and five benchmark models are implemented on a real dataset gathered from the Alice Springs area in Australia. In contrast to the SSA-LSTM model, most MAE, MAPE, and RMSE values of the proposed model are reduced by 20∼60%, demonstrating the superiority of the proposed model under various weather conditions and typical seasons.