Turnout In Presidential Elections Research Articles

To vote or not to vote? Fake news, voter fraud, and support for postponing the 2020 U.S. presidential election

AbstractPrior to the 2020 election President Trump suggested the election should be postponed “until the country can make sure that only eligible American citizens can vote.” With the COVID‐19 pandemic leading many states to take steps that made it easier for citizens to vote safely, the president and his allies made numerous false claims about voter fraud; others argued that voter fraud is not common and is unlikely to appreciably increase with greater reliance on mail balloting. We rely on a national Internet‐based survey experiment conducted prior to the 2020 election to assess the effectiveness of both messages on citizens' support for a hypothetical proposal to postpone the presidential election. The results suggest that respondents were more likely to support postponement if they received a fake news message that fraud is common. The results also suggest that these effects are conditional; both political party and knowledge moderate the relationship.Related ArticlesAguado, N. Alexander. 2022. “When Charismatic Leadership Trumps Social Networking: Searching for the Effects of Social Media on Beliefs of Electoral Legitimacy.” Politics & Policy 50(5): 942–51. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12494.Fisher, Patrick. 2020. “Generational Replacement and the Impending Transformation of the American Electorate.” Politics & Policy 48(1): 38–68. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12340.Stockemer, Daniel. 2013. “Corruption and Turnout in Presidential Elections: A Macro‐Level Quantitative Analysis.” Politics & Policy 41(2): 189–212. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12012.

Gifts for votes? Vote buying as a predictor of turnout in Latin America

AbstractThis article focuses on the repercussions of vote buying on turnout in presidential elections in eight Latin American countries. The research is conducted with individual‐level data from the AmericasBarometer database from 2018 to 2019, which includes unique questions about the respondents' experience with vote buying and whether they participated in the last presidential election. The results of our logistic regression analysis reveal that vote buying was a predictor of turnout in the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico, whereas in Colombia, El Salvador, Paraguay, and Peru, this variable was statistically insignificant for predicting voter turnout.

A Review on the Psychological Reactions after a Presidential Election

This paper is a review of the psychological reactions of young adults to any presidential turnout from 2006-2022. The studies generally revealed the occurrence of numerous psychological reactions and coping strategies after the election turnout. The existing literature is scarce in explaining the psychological reactions among voters, their coping strategies after the loss of their preferred candidate, their sense of fulfillment and life satisfaction after the victory of their preferred candidates, as well as their interpersonal and social relationships among family and friends. This review of literature then attempts to capture from existing studies the positive and negative psychological reactions of young adults following a Presidential election turnout and their coping reactions to the loss of their preferred candidates, and the possible impact on their well-being, their sense of fulfillment, and the sense of satisfaction when their preferred candidates won the election cycle. The review shows that voters of the losing candidate show signs of stress among other factors from the result of the elections with those who have maladaptive coping mechanisms showing higher overall levels; voters of winning candidates show signs of elation.

National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout’s description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–2020). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–2012).

America's first voter identification laws: The effects of personal registration and declining political party competition on presidential election turnout, 1880–1916

Engaging a persistent puzzle on the decline in U.S turnout after 1896 from which the nation never recovered, this paper tests the impact of strict registration laws and declining electoral competition on turnout. This study uses an original dataset on nineteenth century voter registration laws for 1880–1916. I estimate a panel model with state and year fixed effects to test the hypothesis that the shift in electoral behavior was a function of registration reforms and competition. Findings show that turnout dropped by as much as 6 points because of personal registration laws, whereas competition increased turnout by up to 10 points. I also analyzed two case studies at the county level. The results indicate that when registration laws became increasingly stringent with stricter identification requirements, turnout dropped by as much as 19 points. Findings suggest that electoral competition could mitigate the suppressive effects of strict voting laws on turnout.

Presidential Elections in Russia: Opportunities and Limitations of Electoral Consolidation

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the processes of electoral consolidation around incumbents, as well as around opposition candidates, in Russian presidential elections. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the parliamentary and presidential campaigns over six electoral cycles, the author identifies shifts in the turnout and voting patterns for candidates in presidential elections in comparison to the previous State Duma elections. His research shows that almost all viable candidates in presidential elections rely on the electorate of a certain party—usually the one that nominates the candidate (the only important exception to this rule was the vote for P. Grudinin in the 2018 election). The study also shows that an increase in turnout in presidential elections plays into the hands of the incumbent (except for B. Yeltsin in 1996), although in some cases it can boost support for a strong opposition candidate (G. Zyuganov in 1996) or an entirely new candidate (M. Prokhorov in 2012). Having compared voting patterns between parliamentary and presidential elections, the author comes to the conclusion that an incumbent is usually able to win over ambivalent voters and, depending on the political context, voters from various party clusters; for example, supporters of A Just Russia, LDPR, liberal parties, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (at the level of certain regions). Opposition candidates possess much more limited opportunities for this kind of consolidation or lack them altogether. The author interprets these trends as a manifestation of strategic voting based on voters’ rational choice in favor of the incumbent. English translation © 2019 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC, from the Russian text © 2018 “Politiia.” “Prezidentskie vybory v Rossii: Vozmozhnosti i predely elektoral’noi konsolidatsii,” Politiia, 2018, no. 2(89), pp. 23-50. Rostislav Feliksovich Turovsky is a doctor of political science and a professor in the School of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Translated by Lucy Gunderson. Translation reprinted from Russian Politics and Law, vol. 56, nos. 3-6. DOI:10.1080/10611940.2019.1784629.

Is campus diversity related to Latinx student voter turnout in presidential elections?

Is campus diversity related to Latinx student voter turnout in presidential elections?

Understanding the Competing Effects of Economic Hardship and Income Inequality on Voter Turnout

This article examines how economic hardship and income inequality affect voter turnout across 41 elections from 22 countries. Research on how these factors affect voter turnout has routinely produced uneven results. Furthermore, recent rises in income inequality have led many to revisit how the distribution of resources in society may affect voting. Using multilevel modeling techniques, I find strong evidence that economic hardship negatively affects participation rates for those mainly from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, while income inequality has only marginal effects on overall voter turnout.Related ArticlesStockemer, Daniel. 2013. “Corruption and Turnout in Presidential Elections: A Macro‐Level Quantitative Analysis.” Politics & Policy 41 (2): 189‐212. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12012Stockemer, Daniel. 2016. “Is the Turnout Function in Democracies and Nondemocracies Alike or Different?” Politics & Policy 44 (5): 889‐915. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12174Stockemer, Daniel, and Stephanie Parent. 2013. “The Inequality Turnout Nexus: New Evidence from Presidential Elections.” Politics & Policy 42 (2): 221‐245. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12067

Why Black and Latino Home Ownership Matter to the Color Line and Multiracial Democracy

Recent scholarship across various disciplines since the U.S. housing crisis of 2008 has deepened our understanding of racial wealth gaps, especially as it pertains to housing. This article focuses on two less-developed dimensions of Black and Latino home ownership, voting and immigration, respectively. The Black home ownership rate has fallen to 41% as of 2019, the lowest level since the 1968 Fair Housing Act. I contend that the continued decline of Black home ownership reduces voting turnout. A multivariate fixed effects analysis of state-level Black voter turnout in presidential elections since 2000 lends support to this contention. In contrast, the Latino home ownership rate has rebounded, climbing to nearly 48% in 2019. I argue that this rise is as much a mirage as sign of progress—an artifact of the deportation of millions of Latin Americans and the end of undocumented Mexican migration. Such changes inflate Latino ownership rates by reducing the denominator rather than increasing the numerator of homeowners. Examining state-level data, my multivariate analysis shows that the decline in the undocumented population and, to a lesser extent, the increase of DACA recipients explain the level and change in Latino ownership more than the change in the share of Latino citizens or documented non-citizens. I conclude that the color line has reinforced a new Black/non-Black divide in home ownership that undermines the social mobility and electoral representation of Black Americans. Meanwhile, a tri-racial divide by legal status and race stratifies Latino home ownership. Intra-Latino inequality masquerades as success because of the expulsion of vulnerable Latino immigrants and their US citizen children. The social consequences distort the home ownership rate calculation and pose another threat to multiracial democracy.

Invalid Votes, Deliberate Abstentions, and the Brazilian Crisis of Representation

AbstractAugust 31, 2016 registered the historical impeachment of Brazilian president, Dilma Rousseff, indicted for contravening the budget law and misstating the public deficit that propelled the country into deep economic recession. Many disagreements on this matter have permeated the country’s conflict atmosphere, supported by arguments that the collective will of more than 54 million voters was disrespected. Based on 3,010 interviews conducted in 204 Brazilian cities, we construct a pairwise comparison to present arguments that Rousseff had no legitimate representation in the 2014 national elections. We demonstrate how the suboptimal support of invalid votes and deliberate abstentions might have misrepresented the results of Brazilian presidential election by choosing a pseudo‐Condorcet loser candidate. The results in the Brazilian case study presented here point to the weakness in the social process of aggregating preferences by relative or absolute majority, and sets out recommendations.Related ArticlesGalatas, Steven. 2008. “‘None of the Above?’ Casting Blank Ballots in Ontario Provincial Elections.” Politics & Policy 36 (3): 448‐473. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2008.00116.xStockemer, Daniel. 2013. “Corruption and Turnout in Presidential Elections: A Macro‐Level Quantitative Analysis.” Politics & Policy 41 (2): 189‐212. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12012Stockemer, Daniel, and Stephanie Parent. 2014. “The Inequality Turnout Nexus: New Evidence from Presidential Elections.” Politics & Policy 42 (2): 221‐245. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12067Related MediaThe Conversation. 2017. “Kenneth Arrow’s Legacy and Why Elections Can Be Flawed.” March 1. https://theconversation.com/kenneth-arrows-legacy-and-why-elections-can-be-flawed-73675

The Power of Place? Testing the Geographic Determinants of African‐American and White Voter Turnout*

ObjectiveThis article evaluates the geographic determinants of both white and African‐American voter turnout in presidential elections. We argue that perceptions of threat posed by African Americans influence white turnout, although the possibility of interracial contact can ameliorate these attitudes. Conversely, we contend the size of the co‐racial population and segregation drives variations in African‐American turnout.MethodWe utilize geographic information systems (ArcGIS) mapping software in conjunction with Census and turnout data from the state of Louisiana. We test our hypotheses using a series of hierarchical linear regressions.ResultsWe find that African‐American turnout is highest in parishes where African Americans represent a majority and segregation levels are low. White turnout is highest among whites in racially segregated, predominately white precincts.ConclusionWe conclude that different demographic factors drive variations in white and African‐American turnout.

Presidential Elections in Russia: Opportunities and Limitations of Electoral Consolidation

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the processes of electoral consolidation around incumbents, as well as around opposition candidates, in Russian presidential elections. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the parliamentary and presidential campaigns over six electoral cycles, the author identifies shifts in the turnout and voting patterns for candidates in presidential elections in comparison to the previous State Duma elections. His research shows that almost all viable candidates in presidential elections rely on the electorate of a certain party—usually the one that nominates the candidate (the only important exception to this rule was the vote for P. Grudinin in the 2018 election). The study also shows that an increase in turnout in presidential elections plays into the hands of the incumbent (except for B. Yeltsin in 1996), although in some cases it can boost support for a strong opposition candidate (G. Zyuganov in 1996) or an entirely new candidate (M. Prokhorov in 2012). Having compared voting patterns between parliamentary and presidential elections, the author comes to the conclusion that an incumbent is usually able to win over ambivalent voters and, depending on the political context, voters from various party clusters; for example, supporters of A Just Russia, LDPR, liberal parties, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (at the level of certain regions). Opposition candidates possess much more limited opportunities for this kind of consolidation or lack them altogether. The author interprets these trends as a manifestation of strategic voting based on voters’ rational choice in favor of the incumbent.

The Brennan–Lomasky Test of Expressive Voting: When Impressive Probability Differences Are Meaningless

We consider a test of expressive voting developed by Brennan and Lomasky (1993). They point out that in presidential elections the probability of a tie, and casting a decisive vote, increases “multi-billionfold” as the election becomes increasingly close. They conjecture that if voters are instrumentally motivated there would be enormous increases in voter turnout for presidential elections as they became close. When they find no consistent relationship between closeness and turnout in presidential elections since 1940, they conclude their test justifies a “decisive rejection of the instrumental voter hypothesis.” As dramatic as such a “multi-billionfold” increase is, we argue it would not motivate voting if an instrumental payoff was the only motivation for doing so. The Brennan–Lomasky test does give the correct result, but not for the reason they emphasize. They do see reasons why voting turnout would be moderated other than the dramatic probability of a decisive vote in close elections. Furthermore, they close their test by indicating that one reason turnout might be higher in close elections is that they are more interesting, which is congenial to an expressive account. We agree. We also argue that the observed tendency for voters to confirm their biases rather than change their minds provides additional support for expressive voting.

Are Voting Norms Conditional? How Electoral Context and Peer Behavior Shape the Social Returns to Voting

Research on turnout in presidential elections has shown that “battleground” state status has modest effects on turnout, raising the question of why individuals vote even in noncompetitive states. We present experimental evidence showing that the typically small effect of battleground status on turnout may be tied to the fact that voting norms are insensitive to whether a given individual’s vote is likely to affect the outcome of an election. Instead, variability in the social rewards to voting are more closely tied to the behaviors of others.

Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data: Using Historical Weather Patterns for Variance Estimation

Many recent papers in political science and economics use rainfall as a strategy to facilitate causal inference. Rainfall shocks are as-if randomly assigned, but the assignment of rainfall by county is highly correlated across space. Since clustered assignment does not occur within well-defined boundaries, it is challenging to estimate the variance of the effect of rainfall on political outcomes. I propose using randomization inference with historical weather patterns from 73 years as potential randomizations. I replicate the influential work on rainfall and voter turnout in presidential elections in the United States by Gomez, Hansford, and Krause (2007) and compare the estimated average treatment effect (ATE) to a sampling distribution of estimates under the sharp null hypothesis of no effect. The alternate randomizations are random draws from national rainfall patterns on election and would-be election days, which preserve the clustering in treatment assignment and eliminate the need to simulate weather patterns or make assumptions about unit boundaries for clustering. I find that the effect of rainfall on turnout is subject to greater sampling variability than previously estimated using conventional standard errors.

Empowerment, Threat, and Segregation: The Geographic Determinants of African American Turnout

In this paper, we examine how African American voter turnout is affected by the size and distribution of the surrounding white population. While an established literature examines how white behavior is affected by the presence of African Americans, relatively few studies have examined the inverse relationship. We look to explore the geographic determinants of African American voting behavior by asking this question: do African Americans mobilize against white interests when whites represent the majority (threat) or is African American turnout highest in places where African Americans represent a majority and are more likely to perceive the ability to influence the political process (empowerment)? Moreover, what role does segregation, which speaks to the distribution of groups rather than their sizes, play in shaping turnout rates? To evaluate these questions, we utilize ArcGIS mapping software in conjunction with Census and turnout data from the state of Louisiana to estimate series of hierarchical linear models testing the relationship between African Americans’ racial environment and turnout in presidential elections. Consistent with the empowerment hypothesis, we find that African American turnout is highest in parishes where African Americans represent a majority and in places where African Americans are not a majority but segregation levels are low.

The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-Felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa

We investigate how the restoration of voting rights aects the political participation of ex-felons. Our primary analysis uses unique administrative data from Iowa, which changed how ex-felons restore their voting rights in both 2005 and 2011. Prior to 2005, ex-felons had to apply to the governor to restore their voting rights. We show that ex-felon turnout increased after Iowa began to automatically restore these rights. Consistent with misinformation being a significant barrier to ex-felons’ political participation, ex-felons were more likely to vote if they were informed about this policy change. The application requirement was re-instated for exfelons discharged since 2011 and we show that this reduced their 2012 presidential election turnout. We conclude by comparing the actual turnout rate of recently discharged ex-felons in Iowa, Maine, and Rhode Island to the turnout rate that Uggen and Manza’s (2002) method predicts. This

공간가중회귀모형을 이용한 18대 대선 투표율 및 지지율과 인구사회학 변수들 간의 공간관계 분석

공간가중회귀모형을 이용한 18대 대선 투표율 및 지지율과 인구사회학 변수들 간의 공간관계 분석

Broadband Internet and Political Behavior: Evidence from the United States

This paper examines the effect of the introduction of broadband Internet on voting and campaign donations in the 2000s. To identify the effect of broadband, I use an instrumental variable strategy based on geographic terrain attributes which affected the cost of building cable infrastructure. I find that broadband has led to a large increase in voter turnout in presidential elections, as well as an increase in the total amount donated to political campaigns. Consistent with the hypothesis that Democrats have a stronger online presence, I also find a large effect on Democratic vote share in presidential elections. Evidence suggests the existence of both direct and indirect channels for the broadband effect. In particular, I find that broadband availability is associated with greater political knowledge, an increase in online (but not offline) donations, and the promotion of liberal values.

Implicit Racial Attitude Measures in Black Samples: IAT, Subliminal Priming, and Implicit Black Identification

One of the shortcomings of the implicit racial attitudes literature is that it relies almost exclusively on white subjects. Arguably, there are two possible reasons for this. First, these measures were created to address issues of social desirability among whites who harbor negative racial attitudes toward blacks. Second, social desirability pressures and antiblack affect were not viewed as significant among black respondents (see Craemer 2008). This assumption is problematic because it treats black racial attitudes as a monolith. Rather than examining black racial opinion as a complicated and multivalenced set of evaluations about their own group and others, there has been an over emphasis on measures of group solidarity (e.g., linked fate). Understandably, bloc voting and cohesive policy opinions have partially justified this focus; however, the black community is more diverse than presidential election turnout suggests. Price (2009) argues that linked fate, the most common measure for black racial identity, is not adequately problematized as a potentially positive or negative measure of psychological attachment. Here, we hope to build on this literature by using an implicit black identity measure.