Empowerment, Threat, and Segregation: The Geographic Determinants of African American Turnout

Abstract

In this paper, we examine how African American voter turnout is affected by the size and distribution of the surrounding white population. While an established literature examines how white behavior is affected by the presence of African Americans, relatively few studies have examined the inverse relationship. We look to explore the geographic determinants of African American voting behavior by asking this question: do African Americans mobilize against white interests when whites represent the majority (threat) or is African American turnout highest in places where African Americans represent a majority and are more likely to perceive the ability to influence the political process (empowerment)? Moreover, what role does segregation, which speaks to the distribution of groups rather than their sizes, play in shaping turnout rates? To evaluate these questions, we utilize ArcGIS mapping software in conjunction with Census and turnout data from the state of Louisiana to estimate series of hierarchical linear models testing the relationship between African Americans’ racial environment and turnout in presidential elections. Consistent with the empowerment hypothesis, we find that African American turnout is highest in parishes where African Americans represent a majority and in places where African Americans are not a majority but segregation levels are low.